Mass Exodus from Church?

[Johnnie Cake]

On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2016 at 10:26 AM, JLHPROF said:

Really interesting data.  Love seeing it laid out like this.

But here's my POV.
I don't see why a decrease in growth rate and an increase in resignations matter.

Obviously the idea is that the Church is doing something wrong that is causing people to leave or not convert.
Or that the Church should be changing and adapting to increase membership.

I reject both ideas.  People are individuals with agency.  Society changes almost every day it seems.  The principles in the gospel are (or at least are supposed to be) eternal and unchanging in nature regardless of administrative choices made by the Church.  There is no prophecy that states the entire world would be converted.

I quoted this on another thread yesterday:

• "I do not feel as I used to when I see a man going away from the society of the Church of God. I used to be filled with sympathy and plead with them hours and hours, importuning with them until my head would ache and my heart sicken; and I never had the satisfaction in even converting one such character in my life. If I should happen to get one converted he would not stay converted, so I have concluded, and I think wisely, to let them go, and not suffer myself to have any more feelings about it than I would about any of the common occurrences of life." - Heber C. Kimball

All a decrease in numbers shows is prophecy coming to pass.  There is no reason to assume the Church is flawed because people are rejecting it before/after membership.  People are changing, and only a few will be able to stand.

The church grows...its a fulfillment of Prophecy

The church shrinks...its a fulfillment of Prophecy

Looks like you've got your bases covered

[rongo]

1 hour ago, Gray said:

Given our massive recruitment campaign and high birth rate, we should be growing as a percentage of the population. Good point on the margin of error. But our growth is tepid enough not to be detectable within the margin of error on the survey, which says that we are seeing a significant number of members who no longer attend. I doubt most of it has to do with the exmormons and their movements. I think it's just the larger societal trend away from organized religion. 

Does the state of the world and prophecy factor in at all, though? "Should be growing as a percentage of the population" assumes "all things being equal." 

All things are not equal, though --- and neither are cultural conditions. The 1970s-1980s were also unlike the rapid missionary times of the 1850s-1880s. Or the turn of the century. 

And what about the prophecies that, at some point, the missionaries will be called home? How is missionary work abroad going to look at that point?

I think it is perfectly reasonable to expect things to not be at the same rate (and even to decline) at different times. Especially the turbulent present and future.

[JLHPROF]

1 hour ago, Johnnie Cake said:

The church grows...its a fulfillment of Prophecy

The church shrinks...its a fulfillment of Prophecy

Looks like you've got your bases covered

Church growth is not a fulfillment of prophecy.  There is no prophecy as to the Church being a massive number.
The spreading of the gospel is a fulfillment of prophecy.  Not a numbers game but an accessibility issue.

This is not covering the bases.  It's reading for comprehension.

[Gray]

39 minutes ago, rongo said:

Does the state of the world and prophecy factor in at all, though? "Should be growing as a percentage of the population" assumes "all things being equal." 

All things are not equal, though --- and neither are cultural conditions. The 1970s-1980s were also unlike the rapid missionary times of the 1850s-1880s. Or the turn of the century. 

And what about the prophecies that, at some point, the missionaries will be called home? How is missionary work abroad going to look at that point?

I think it is perfectly reasonable to expect things to not be at the same rate (and even to decline) at different times. Especially the turbulent present and future.

I guess I was just thinking of all the extra steps we make to ensure that we grow quickly. Many other mainline churches are not actively recruiting, and their birth rates I would guess are about average. So they are declining in numbers. We are not declining in numbers, but only because of those two factors, I think. The cultural shift against church attendance and affiliation may increase to the point that our efforts to grow are not enough to stem the tide of religious leave-taking. All churches have to confront this issue, and what steps they will (or won't) take to win back a generation that is abandoning organized religion. I think these factors may fuel a kind of religious revolution, but who knows what it might look like. 

 

[Gray]

12 minutes ago, JLHPROF said:

Church growth is not a fulfillment of prophecy.  There is no prophecy as to the Church being a massive number.
The spreading of the gospel is a fulfillment of prophecy.  Not a numbers game but an accessibility issue.

This is not covering the bases.  It's reading for comprehension.

The "stone cut out of the mountain without hands" thing has been interpreted as just such a prophecy for a long time. 

Edited November 4, 2016 by Gray

[Scott Lloyd]

31 minutes ago, Gray said:

The "stone cut out of the mountain without hands" thing has been interpreted as just such a prophecy for a long time. 

It will have through the end of the Millennium to be fulfilled.

Assuming what Nephi beheld in vision -- that the church of the Lamb of God will be few in number -- holds until the Second Coming of Christ, there will still be a thousand years for the prophecy of Daniel to have its complete fulfillment. And that will be after the earth has been cleansed of wickedness, Satan has been bound and Christ has come to reign personally upon the earth. I'd say the conditions will be perfect at that time for the stone to roll forth and consume all earthly kingdoms.

Meanwhile, the growing global presence (and, as JLHPROF said, the accessibility) of the Church throughout the earth can indeed be viewed as the beginning of the fulfillment of Daniel's prophecy.

Edited November 4, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[JLHPROF]

10 minutes ago, Gray said:

The "stone cut out of the mountain without hands" thing has been interpreted as just such a prophecy for a long time. 

You mean that the kingdom will go throughout the earth?
Absolutely.  Not many places left it hasn't gone.
Every nation, kindred, tongue, and people.  Almost.

The prophetic chain of events is pretty clear.

The gospel will go to the entire earth.
Only a small percent will accept it.
Even fewer will hold to it until Christ returns.
All other nations will be ended.
Upon the return of Christ his kingdom will rule the entire earth.
Every knee will bow and recognize Christ as king and Lord.

The contradiction only appears when people try to combine step 1 and step 5.

It is true that Joseph Smith prophesied:
"When they got through, the Prophet said: ‘Brethren I have been very much edified and instructed in your testimonies here tonight, but I want to say to you before the Lord, that you know no more concerning the destinies of this Church and kingdom than a babe upon its mother’s lap. You don’t comprehend it. . . . It is only a little handful of Priesthood you see here tonight, but this Church will [grow until it will] fill North and South America—it will fill the world’"

The word in question here is "fill".  Does that mean member numbers or locations?

 

[Gray]

1 minute ago, JLHPROF said:

You mean that the kingdom will go throughout the earth?
Absolutely.  Not many places left it hasn't gone.
Every nation, kindred, tongue, and people.  Almost.

The prophetic chain of events is pretty clear.

The gospel will go to the entire earth.
Only a small percent will accept it.
Even fewer will hold to it until Christ returns.
All other nations will be ended.
Upon the return of Christ his kingdom will rule the entire earth.
Every knee will bow and recognize Christ as king and Lord.

The contradiction only appears when people try to combine step 1 and step 5.

It is true that Joseph Smith prophesied:
"When they got through, the Prophet said: ‘Brethren I have been very much edified and instructed in your testimonies here tonight, but I want to say to you before the Lord, that you know no more concerning the destinies of this Church and kingdom than a babe upon its mother’s lap. You don’t comprehend it. . . . It is only a little handful of Priesthood you see here tonight, but this Church will [grow until it will] fill North and South America—it will fill the world’"

The word in question here is "fill".  Does that mean member numbers or locations?

 

If it doesn't mean numbers then it's not very meaningful. Otherwise we could fulfill prophesy very easily by assigning one member to live in each country on the earth. Then we could say we've "filled" the earth. 

[JLHPROF]

11 minutes ago, Gray said:

If it doesn't mean numbers then it's not very meaningful. Otherwise we could fulfill prophesy very easily by assigning one member to live in each country on the earth. Then we could say we've "filled" the earth. 

Taking any one prophecy in isolation almost invariably leads to a questionable result.
Your explanation here can't be accurate because of other prophecies.  Assuming fill means huge numbers as some members state is also inaccurate because of other prophecies.

It was prophesied that temples would dot the earth.  It was prophesied that many cities will be destroyed.
It was prophesied that a small core group would come out of/be left in the Church who hold to the gospel.  It was prophesied that the Church will go off course a little and be corrected.
It was prophesied that men would run in fear.  It was prophesied that many would flee to the Rockies and later the New Jerusalem.

Prophecy doesn't exist in a vacuum.  But this is more than "covering our bases" or prophecies contradicting themselves.  It's seeing the big picture application.

Edited November 4, 2016 by JLHPROF

[Nofear]

It may be also noted that even after the Savior appears for the Second Coming and every knee bows and confesses him Lord and King, not everybody will convert to the Church. Many will convert, true, but nonetheless In the early days of the Millennium there will be individuals who adhere to different denominations and some who align with no denomination. If the very literal appearance of the Lord does not convert everybody, can we expect young men or women with a name tag to do better?

[Scott Lloyd]

32 minutes ago, Gray said:

If it doesn't mean numbers then it's not very meaningful. Otherwise we could fulfill prophesy very easily by assigning one member to live in each country on the earth. Then we could say we've "filled" the earth. 

No you could not.

The Church spreads throughout the earth by means of the establishment of stakes of Zion. "Stake" is a scriptural term consistent with the metaphor of the gospel being a tent that will eventually cover the whole earth.

We haven't yet reached the point where there is a stake of Zion everywhere in the world, but we are getting there. Temples are constructed in connection with there being enough stakes of ZIon in a given area to justify construction of a temple there.

We are in the preliminary stage of the total fulfillment of Daniel's prophecy. We are preparing for the Second Coming of Christ. When that finally happens, the complete fulfillment of the prophecy will transpire, with immense numbers of the earth's inhabitants being converted and with the fulfillment of what JLHPROF spoke of, when "every knee shall bow and every tongue confess that Jesus is Lord."

The sooner you grasp the chronology relating to the last days, the sooner you will cease to be confused by references to the prophecy of Daniel,

Edited to add:

It just occurred to me that the establishment of stakes of Zion everywhere could be viewed as the formation of the infrastructure for the eventual rolling forth of the kingdom of God throughout the world.

Edited November 4, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Scott Lloyd]

11 minutes ago, Nofear said:

It may be also noted that even after the Savior appears for the Second Coming and every knee bows and confesses him Lord and King, not everybody will convert to the Church. Many will convert, true, but nonetheless In the early days of the Millennium there will be individuals who adhere to different denominations and some who align with no denomination. If the very literal appearance of the Lord does not convert everybody, can we expect young men or women with a name tag to do better?

I think with the earth having been cleansed of wickedness at the time of the Savior's coming and with Satan having been bound, it will become much easier to convert souls to Christ, whether that is done by young men and women with name tags or by some other way.

I don't know that it will happen instantly, but I don't believe it will take long.

Edited November 4, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Teancum]

On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2016 at 8:13 AM, Nofear said:

http://www.sltrib.com/home/4535962-155/mass-exodus-from-mormonism-lds-stats

From the article,

Is there more to the story or is this statistic substantially correct? For my part, I go with substantially correct, but some may wish a chance to "clarify" the facts.

I think more people just drop out and leave their names on the records.  Activity rates and retention rates are really more telling than resignation rates.

[Gray]

21 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

No you could not.

The Church spreads throughout the earth by means of the establishment of stakes of Zion. "Stake" is a scriptural term consistent with the metaphor of the gospel being a tent that will eventually cover the whole earth.

We haven't yet reached the point where there is a stake of Zion everywhere in the world, but we are getting there. Temples are constructed in connection with there being enough stakes of ZIon in a given area to justify construction of a temple there.

We are in the preliminary stage of the total fulfillment of Daniel's prophecy. We are preparing for the Second Coming of Christ. When that finally happens, the complete fulfillment of the prophecy will transpire, with immense numbers of the earth's inhabitants being converted and with the fulfillment of what JLHPROF spoke of, when "every knee shall bow and every tongue confess that Jesus is Lord."

The sooner you grasp the chronology relating to the last days, the sooner you will cease to be confused by references to the prophecy of Daniel,

Edited to add:

It just occurred to me that the establishment of stakes of Zion everywhere could be viewed as the formation of the infrastructure for the eventual rolling forth of the kingdom of God throughout the world.

That's one interpretation. But it's not more or less valid than any other. That's the problem with trying to predict the future. All prophesy is a Rorschach test. 

But if I'm "confused" about Daniel it's because that was the interpretation I was taught when I was a missionary. 

[Nofear]

17 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I think with the earth having been cleansed of wickedness at the time of the Savior's coming and with Satan having been bound, it will become much easier to convert souls to Christ, whether that is done by young men and women with name tags or by some other way.

I don't know that it will happen instantly, but I don't believe it will take long.

I don't think it will take long either. But it won't be instantaneous. One of scriptures I find funny is Revelation 11:15,18.

Quote

15. And the seventh angel sounded; and there were great voices in heaven, saying, The kingdoms of this world are become the kingdoms of our Lord, and of his Christ; and he shall reign for ever and ever.
18. And the nations were angry  ...

Emphasis added. Not all the world will be happy with the onset of the Millennium. Shouldn't take to long to see the good of it though (we'd hope).

[Scott Lloyd]

36 minutes ago, Gray said:

That's one interpretation. But it's not more or less valid than any other. That's the problem with trying to predict the future. All prophesy is a Rorschach test. 

But if I'm "confused" about Daniel it's because that was the interpretation I was taught when I was a missionary. 

Mine is a doctrinally sound position based upon understanding of scriptural prophecy pertaining to the last days, the dispensation of the fullness of times, the Second Coming of Christ and the Millennium. 

But whether or not you reject my position, at the very least it neutralizes your criticisms about the doctrines of the Church. 

As for what you were taught as a missionary, I suspect that in at least some instances you misunderstood what was being taught. 

But in any case, I'm not accountable for your having been taught incorrect doctrine in the past. 

[Scott Lloyd]

52 minutes ago, Nofear said:

I don't think it will take long either. But it won't be instantaneous. One of scriptures I find funny is Revelation 11:15,18.

Emphasis added. Not all the world will be happy with the onset of the Millennium. Shouldn't take to long to see the good of it though (we'd hope).

Bear in mind that at the end of the Millennium, Satan will be "loosed for a little season" and will again begin to influence the nations. Ultimately, they will be arrayed against the people of God. Then will come the battle of Armageddon, in which God's people will triumph and the wicked nations will be destroyed. After that will come the final judgment. 

In a sense, this is comparable to Nephite history. After the resurrected Christ appeared, there was a period of perfect peace and righteousness. Then, the pride cycle kicked in, and the Nephite nation became wicked again, ultimately to be destroyed. Except that in the final days, after the Millennium has passed and there is the great battle, the righteous will emerge triumphant. 

I confess there is a lot about the Book of Revelation I don't understand. Some of it seems out of sequence when compared to other scripture. But I believe that, considered together, scripture gives a generally good understanding of what is to take place in the last days. 

Edited November 4, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Teancum]

On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2016 at 0:26 PM, JLHPROF said:

Really interesting data.  Love seeing it laid out like this.

But here's my POV.
I don't see why a decrease in growth rate and an increase in resignations matter.

Obviously the idea is that the Church is doing something wrong that is causing people to leave or not convert.
Or that the Church should be changing and adapting to increase membership.

I reject both ideas.  People are individuals with agency.  Society changes almost every day it seems.  The principles in the gospel are (or at least are supposed to be) eternal and unchanging in nature regardless of administrative choices made by the Church.  There is no prophecy that states the entire world would be converted.

I quoted this on another thread yesterday:

• "I do not feel as I used to when I see a man going away from the society of the Church of God. I used to be filled with sympathy and plead with them hours and hours, importuning with them until my head would ache and my heart sicken; and I never had the satisfaction in even converting one such character in my life. If I should happen to get one converted he would not stay converted, so I have concluded, and I think wisely, to let them go, and not suffer myself to have any more feelings about it than I would about any of the common occurrences of life." - Heber C. Kimball

All a decrease in numbers shows is prophecy coming to pass.  There is no reason to assume the Church is flawed because people are rejecting it before/after membership.  People are changing, and only a few will be able to stand.

So if the church grows rapidly it is a sign that it is the stone cut our of the mountain without hands to fill the whole earth from the Book of Daniel. 

If it does not grow, is small, looses traction, etc it is what Nephi says that the Church of the Lamb will be over the entire earth but small.

It seems that there is support for either position.  Only the wondrous elect will stand and even many of those will be deceived.  Religion seems to have all sorts of things to use to support whatever the outcome may be.

[Teancum]

On 11/3/2016 at 5:30 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

I've made the point the following points before, but as usual, you are ignoring what I've said.

Nephi beheld in vision that the church of the Lamb of God would be over all the face of the earth in the last days, but that it's numbers would be few by reason of the influence of Satan in the world.

Ergo, all that has to happen for prophecy to be fulfilled is for the global presence of the Church to continue to spread. The "standard of truth" will thus have been erected and will have "visited every clime." Thus, no unhallowed had will have stopped the work for progressing, though Satan will continue his nefarious work to continue.

At length, Christ will come to reign personally on the earth, beginning the thousand years of peace, prior to which the earth will have been cleansed from wickedness. During this grant millennial period is when dramatic growth in conversions will occur in perfect fulfillment of Daniel's prophecy about the stone cut out of the mountain without hands consuming all worldly kingdoms until it fills the whole earth.

What is going on today is merely prelude to all that will come in the Millennium.

Does the LDS Church really have a global presence?  I think not. 

What are its numbers in China?

What are its numbers in the middle east?

What are its numbers in India?

What are its numbers in so many other parts of Asia?

 

There is a majority of the World population where the Church has made little to no penetration and billions likely have no idea what Mormonism is.

The LDS Church is primarily a North and South American Church. It has some foothold in the Philippines, is having some growth in Africa, is not growing at all in Russia and is withering away in Europe.  Perhaps this still rises to the level of a "Global Presence" and is enough for the believer to be happy about.  But it is a long way off from visiting every clime or even filling all of North and South America (since the activity rate in South America is dismal and even in some areas is only a few %.  I have a friend that served as an MP in a South American Nation and had stakes in his mission with 3% activity....hardly filling South America). 

Edited November 5, 2016 by Teancum

[Teancum]

22 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Why do you not think it's true? Bear in mind that people in general are largely turning away from religion today. With the LDS Church not so much.

CFR on this.  In the USA the LDS Church did keep up with population growth over the past 25 years...barely,  And other religions did lose ground.  How about for the rest of the world and LDS traction?

[Jeanne]

2 hours ago, Teancum said:

I think more people just drop out and leave their names on the records.  Activity rates and retention rates are really more telling than resignation rates.

This I believe is more than true.  For a lot of people I correspond with...they don't care enough about mormonism to even resign.  It is over for them.

[Gray]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Mine is a doctrinally sound position based upon understanding of scriptural prophecy pertaining to the last days, the dispensation of the fullness of times, the Second Coming of Christ and the Millennium. 

But whether or not you reject my position, at the very least it neutralizes your criticisms about the doctrines of the Church. 

As for what you were taught as a missionary, I suspect that in at least some instances you misunderstood what was being taught. 

But in any case, I'm not accountable for your having been taught incorrect doctrine in the past. 

The problem is there is no basis to determine which interpretation might be doctrinally correct or not. All we have is opinions, all of which could be supported by appealing to various church leaders. 

Edited November 4, 2016 by Gray

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, Teancum said:

Does the LDS Church really have a global presence?  I think not. 

What are its numbers in China?

What are its numbers in the middle east?

What are its numbers in India?

What are its numbers in so many other parts of Asia?

 

There is a majority of the World population where the Church has made little to no penetration and billions likely have no idea what Mormonism is.

The LDS Church is primarily a North and South American Church. It has some foothold in the Philippines, is having some growth in Africa, is not growing at all in Russia and is withering away in Europe.  Perhaps this still rises to the level of a "Global Presence" and is enough for the believer to be happy about.  But it is a long way off from visiting every clime or even filling all of North and South America (since the activity rate in South America is dismal and even in some areas is only a few %.  II have a friend that served as an MP in a South American Nation and had stakes in his mission with 3% activity///hardly filling South America). 

I just said (last post) that we don't have stakes of Zion everywhere yet, but we are getting there. 

Things are on track to transpire as they should. We need to be patient and diligent in performing our  part of the scenario, which is to prepare the world for the Second Coming. 

I have repeatedly explained now why handwringing over fluctuations in growth rate and name resignations and what not is uncalled for. I stand by that. 

Edited November 4, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[JLHPROF]

33 minutes ago, Teancum said:

So if the church grows rapidly it is a sign that it is the stone cut our of the mountain without hands to fill the whole earth from the Book of Daniel. 

If it does not grow, is small, looses traction, etc it is what Nephi says that the Church of the Lamb will be over the entire earth but small.

It seems that there is support for either position.  Only the wondrous elect will stand and even many of those will be deceived.  Religion seems to have all sorts of things to use to support whatever the outcome may be.

Read the thread.  We've already addressed this difference between the stone (kingdom) filing the earth and the numbers of membership being few.

The stone cut without hands doesn't address number of members.  Just geographical extent and eventual (when Christ returns) political power.
But there is no prophecy that the numbers faithful when Christ returns will be massive.

[Scott Lloyd]

Just now, Gray said:

The problem is there is no basis to determine which interpretation might be doctrinally correct or not. All we have is opinions, all of which could be supported by appealing to various church leaders. 

I don't believe anything I've said here is contradicted by Church leaders. On the other hand, any notion that the Church of Jesus Christ is about to languish and die on the vine is very much contradicted.