Exploding Myths About Prevalence Of Divorce?

[Scott Lloyd]

A couple of posters in this thread seem to have accepted her statement at face value. Who has dismissed it out of hand?

It is you who are acting as though she has no substantiating numbers just because you haven't seen them and haven't really bothered to look.

Edited September 22, 2015 by Scott Lloyd

[jkwilliams]

It is you who are acting as though she has no substantiating numbers just because you haven't seen them.

 

I have not said anything to suggest she has no substantiating numbers. As I noted early on, the divorce rate is in decline, so it is clearly trending in the right direction. Where I expressed skepticism is her claim that the divorce rate approaching 50% was based on a false projection, when it clearly isn't.

[ALarson]

It is you who are acting as though she has no substantiating numbers just because you haven't seen them and haven't really bothered to look.

Scott, do you plan on buying her book?  Like I mentioned above, there are good reviews for it.

 

But, if no one here has read her book or knows where her sources are published or given (other than in her book), there is really no way of determining how reliable her sources or figures are (other than buying it and reading it which I'm not planning on doing).  

 

It's too bad she didn't give any other sources.  Maybe she has elsewhere (on her website, etc.)?

Edited September 22, 2015 by ALarson

[Scott Lloyd]

I have not said anything to suggest she has no substantiating numbers. As I noted early on, the divorce rate is in decline, so it is clearly trending in the right direction. Where I expressed skepticism is her claim that the divorce rate approaching 50% was based on a false projection, when it clearly isn't.

I'll take that opinion for what it's worth, recognizing you haven't yet bothered to examine her book.

[jkwilliams]

I'll take that opinion for what it's worth, recognizing you haven't yet bothered to examine her book.

 

You asked for comments about the article you linked to. It seems odd to dismiss an opinion as worthless because it's only based on the article you posted.

[Scott Lloyd]

Scott, do you plan on buying her book? Like I said, there are good reviews for it.•

<I don't know. Maybe.

But, if no one hear has read her book or knows where her sources are published or given (other than in her book), there is really no way of knowing how reliable her sources or figures are.

True. I present as interesting food for thought.

Edited September 22, 2015 by Scott Lloyd

[ALarson]

True. I present as interesting food for thought.

Oh, I get that and thanks for posting this.  (And it is interesting.)  Hopefully her figures are more accurate than what we've heard in the past.

[Scott Lloyd]

You asked for comments about the article you linked to. It seems odd to dismiss an opinion as worthless because it's only based on the article you posted.

Whoah. I never dismissed it as worthless.

Edited September 22, 2015 by Scott Lloyd

[cinepro]

Oddly, I live in two gigantic library systems (LA City and LA County) and neither of them carry this particular book. I honestly can't remember the last time they didn't have a book I wanted.

 

That being said, this blog appears to offer a more skeptical look at her methodology:

 

The answer to these challenges is to be very careful in what data you use and what conclusions you draw from it.  This is unfortunately where Feldhahn goes terribly wrong right out of the gate, with the very title of her Catalyst article:  Everything We Think We Know About Marriage and Divorce is Wrong.   She reinforces this in bold and all caps at the beginning of the article:

I ALSO HAD NO IDEA THAT EVERY ONE OF THE STATISTICS I WAS QUOTING – STATISTICS THAT FIT BOTH WITH CONVENTIONAL WISDOM AND WHAT I SAW REPORTED IN THE MEDIA – WERE NOWHERE CLOSE TO TRUE!

Feldhahn isn’t trying to explain some of the finer points on divorce data, she is claiming the data commonly used is nowhere close to true.  This is a bold claim, and proving it would require bold evidence.  What she offers instead is more confusion.

 

https://dalrock.wordpress.com/2014/07/05/does-shaunti-feldhahns-rosy-divorce-data-prove-that-no-fault-divorce-is-working-out-pretty-well-after-all/

His summary of her thesis (according to him) is also interesting:

Feldhahn makes sweeping claims about divorce rate statistics without offering compelling evidence to back them up. Her claim that we have never seen a 40-50% divorce rate is simply untrue, and several other statistics she offers are highly misleading at best. However, even with the glaring problems with the statistics she presents, the far bigger issue is the desire to put a happy face on our new sexual-morality-free view of marriage. In this new view marriage isn’t about making and keeping a lifetime vow, it is about couples therapy. Lifetime marriage is no longer seen as the moral place for romantic love and sex, but instead romantic love is seen as the moral place for sex and marriage. Nearly all Christians have adopted the same view as the rest of the culture, where the focus is now to make the couple (mostly the wife) happy enough in their marriage that they won’t choose to divorce.

[jkwilliams]

<I don't know. Maybe.

True. I present as interesting food for thought.

 

Thank you for posting it, as I for one have learned some things about the divorce rate from looking around the web, and that was spurred by your thread. Clearly, the 50% divorce rate is overstated today, and the rate has been in decline for many years. That's a positive thing, as stable and loving marriages are crucial components in civil society, IMO. 

[jkwilliams]

Whoah. I never dismissed it as worthless.

 

Sorry for misunderstanding then. 

[Calm]

FYI:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/1990/05/27/weekinreview/l-how-to-calculate-the-us-divorce-rate-correctly-707290.html

 

http://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/files/sp/carl_ltc/quantitative_writing/examples/divorce_rate_its_high.html

Edited September 22, 2015 by Calm

[cinepro]

This is another one of those areas where the Church must have spot-on numbers and statistics, but doesn't make them available. I'm not saying they must (or should), but it would be interesting.

[KevinG]

The 50% rate was based on projections from the 1970s and around the time the advent of no-fault divorces caused a spike in the rate.

 

 

 

The method preferred by social scientists in determining the divorce rate is
to calculate how many people who have ever married subsequently divorced.
Counted that way, the rate has never exceeded about 41 percent, researchers
say. Although sharply rising rates in the 1970's led some to project that
the number would keep increasing, the rate has instead begun to inch
downward.

[Calm]

This is another one of those areas where the Church must have spot-on numbers and statistics, but doesn't make them available. I'm not saying they must (or should), but it would be interesting.

Not spot on.  Any couple that went inactive and later got divorced might not be included in divorce stats.

 

For active members, yes...pretty spot on.

[jkwilliams]

FYI:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/1990/05/27/weekinreview/l-how-to-calculate-the-us-divorce-rate-correctly-707290.html

 

http://d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net/files/sp/carl_ltc/quantitative_writing/examples/divorce_rate_its_high.html

 

 

Thanks for posting that. Wanting more information is not the same as being a naysayer.

Edited September 22, 2015 by jkwilliams

[The Nehor]

I imagine even LDS rates are inflated. I know a teen girl whose parents and current stepparents have been married 12 times. They throw off the averages.

 

She is remarkably well-adjusted all things considered.

[Scott Lloyd]

This is another one of those areas where the Church must have spot-on numbers and statistics, but doesn't make them available. I'm not saying they must (or should), but it would be interesting.

What about the Mormon Channel podcast quoted in the Deseret News article that ALarson linked us to? Daniel Judd of BYU said in that podcast that the rate for Mormons in general was 20 percent and for Mormons with temple marriages 6 percent. Judd's figures had to come from somewhere.

[cinepro]

What about the Mormon Channel podcast quoted in the Deseret News article that ALarson linked us to? Daniel Judd of BYU said in that podcast that the rate for Mormons in general was 20 percent and for Mormons with temple marriages 6 percent. Judd's figures had to come from somewhere.

The Fair article here seems to be a pretty good overview of the data:

http://blog.fairmormon.org/2008/09/12/temple-mariage-and-civil-divorce/

Certainly, there is no indication that the Church has ever released the info.

[sdc999]

"I think being unfaithful to their mother is one of the worst offenses a father can inflict on his children."

This was a post by Scott Lloyd in another thread.  I must say that I RARELY ever agree with Scott but this is spot on.  I would only add that a mother being unfaithful is equally offensive to the children.  

Arguing percentages is fun but seeing the percentages face to face is quite different.  I sit on a board that deals with children.  Rarely does a child come through our doors that is not the product of a broken home.  He/she doesn't care if they fit into the 10th percentile because their  family was from this or that particular group or the 90th percentile group.  So when one says, 'we should be proud because our religious group has a lower rate of divorce than your group', go explain that to a kid in you group.  I'm sure that would reassure him/her.   It's devastating to these kids.

I don't have statistics to back up my next statement because this is the world according to SDC999.   Broken homes are the biggest disaster and problem in our country.  I know some on here are divorced and no, I don't apologize for that statement.    

[Scott Lloyd]

"I think being unfaithful to their mother is one of the worst offenses a father can inflict on his children."

This was a post by Scott Lloyd in another thread.  I must say that I RARELY ever agree with Scott but this is spot on.  I would only add that a mother being unfaithful is equally offensive to the children.  

Arguing percentages is fun but seeing the percentages face to face is quite different.  I sit on a board that deals with children.  Rarely does a child come through our doors that is not the product of a broken home.  He/she doesn't care if they fit into the 10th percentile because their  family was from this or that particular group or the 90th percentile group.  So when one says, 'we should be proud because our religious group has a lower rate of divorce than your group', go explain that to a kid in you group.  I'm sure that would reassure him/her.   It's devastating to these kids.

I don't have statistics to back up my next statement because this is the world according to SDC999.   Broken homes are the biggest disaster and problem in our country.  I know some on here are divorced and no, I don't apologize for that statement.    

I like that we agree on this, but did you have to emphasize so strongly that you "RARELY" agree with me?

Edited September 24, 2015 by Scott Lloyd

[KevinG]

All I know is that if I raised the specter of divorce the homicide rate among Mormons married in the Temple would jump.

 

Good thing I'm in love with my wife.

[thesometimesaint]

http://thoughtfulwomen.org/2014/08/25/may-heard-divorce-rate-church-50-get-ready-shocked/

This blog post, link above, purports to explode conventional wisdom about 50 percent of marriages ending in divorce, etc. Says marriages are much more successful than modernists let on, especially among religious folk and especially among Latter-day Saints. Thoughts?

 

Lots depends on how it is counted.

SEE http://www.religioustolerance.org/lds_divo.htm