Top 10 Encouraging and Discouraging LDS Growth and Missionary Developments in 2016

[JAHS]

Matt Martinich, M.A.at Cumorah.com complied a list of the top 10 encouraging and discouraging LDS growth statistics.
Is he right about these? Are the good still outweighing the bad?

Top 10 Encouraging LDS Growth and Missionary Developments:
1. Largest Number of New Stakes Created in a Single Year since 1997.
2. Rapid Growth Accelerates in West Africa
3. Church Creates Its First LDS Stakes in Three Nations
4. LDS Growth Trends Improve in Central America
5. Significant LDS Growth Developments in Asia
6. Growth in DR Congo – New Stakes, Congregational Growth, and a New Mission
7. Progress in Oceania
8. New Temples
9. LDS Congregations in Syria and Iraq
10. Canada - The Church in Canada reported a net increase of eight congregations during 2016

Top 10 Discouraging LDS Growth and Missionary Developments:
1. Congregational Growth Slows in the United States
2. Stagnant Growth in Europe
3. Congregational Decline in the South America Northwest Area
4. Lack of Progress in Mexico
5. Sole LDS Stake in Armenia Discontinued
6. Stake Discontinuations and Congregational Decline in South Korea
7. Congregational Decline and Stagnant Growth in Ethiopia
8. LDS Growth in the Philippines Decelerates
9. Lack of National Outreach Expansion in India
10. Lack of Outreach Expansion in the Africa Southeast Area

Overall LDS Growth Trend Case Studies

[Jeanne]

I will just say...it doesn't sound good.  But I am not on top of this at all.  But when you are losing in the States where there was the main population of saints..this speaks volumes.

[Buckeye]

On 1/3/2017 at 1:40 PM, JAHS said:

9. LDS Congregations in Syria and Iraq
10. Canada - The Church in Canada reported a net increase of eight congregations during 2016

 

 

 reference to terrorist group comment removed

And yeah for Duncan!

[Kenngo1969]

1 hour ago, Jeanne said:

I will just say...it doesn't sound good.  But I am not on top of this at all.  But when you are losing in the States where there was the main population of saints..this speaks volumes.

I certainly don't want to be accused of attempting to put lipstick and perfume on the "pig" of discouraging LDS growth trends and statistics and to dress it up all pretty and talk nicely to it in an effort to pretend that it doesn't exist.  Such discouraging trends and statistics certainly are concerning.  That said, perhaps I'm simply misunderstanding you, but how do you figure that "the main population of Saints" exists in the United States?  There have been more Latter-day Saints outside the United States than in for quite some time now.

[Kenngo1969]

1 hour ago, Buckeye said:

 

How in the world did we form a congregation in Syria last year?  Maybe we can combine church institute services for the region and call it "Institute Services for Iraq and Syria" - ISIS.  

And yeah for Duncan!

I'm sorry.  I usually have a much more live-and-let-live approach to disagreement here on the Board, but that's pretty tasteless.  

[Jeanne]

16 minutes ago, Kenngo1969 said:

I certainly don't want to be accused of attempting to put lipstick and perfume on the "pig" of discouraging LDS growth trends and statistics and to dress it up all pretty and talk nicely to it in an effort to pretend that it doesn't exist.  Such discouraging trends and statistics certainly are concerning.  That said, perhaps I'm simply misunderstanding you, but how do you figure that "the main population of Saints" exists in the United States?  There have been more Latter-day Saints outside the United States than in for quite some time now.

Like I said..and admitted, I am not up on things like this as I don't belong to any ward or stake..I didn't know this and appreciate your correction.  I just figure the church had more members in the place that it was restored.  Thank you. It does say that it was slow growth in the US.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Jeanne

[JAHS]

13 minutes ago, Kenngo1969 said:

I certainly don't want to be accused of attempting to put lipstick and perfume on the "pig" of discouraging LDS growth trends and statistics and to dress it up all pretty and talk nicely to it in an effort to pretend that it doesn't exist.  Such discouraging trends and statistics certainly are concerning. 

He does add a disclaimer to his data when he said:
"Official country-by-country membership data for year-end 2016 will not become available until April 2017. Some 2016 data regarding congregational growth and stake and district growth in this case study may be inaccurate due to lags in the Church updating congregational and organizational totals for the year 2016."

So we will have to see how accurate some of this really is when April Conference comes around.

[Gray]

1 hour ago, Kenngo1969 said:

I certainly don't want to be accused of attempting to put lipstick and perfume on the "pig" of discouraging LDS growth trends and statistics and to dress it up all pretty and talk nicely to it in an effort to pretend that it doesn't exist.  Such discouraging trends and statistics certainly are concerning.  That said, perhaps I'm simply misunderstanding you, but how do you figure that "the main population of Saints" exists in the United States?  There have been more Latter-day Saints outside the United States than in for quite some time now.

Certainly in names on rolls, there are more members outside the US. But in terms of number of people who show up to church...?

[Jeanne]

11 minutes ago, Gray said:

Certainly in names on rolls, there are more members outside the US. But in terms of number of people who show up to church...?

Exactly.

[Robert F. Smith]

4 hours ago, JAHS said:

.............................................................

1. Congregational Growth Slows in the United States
2. Stagnant Growth in Europe

This is also reflected in decreasing interest in religion among millennials generally.  This is more pronounced in Europe, but is now affecting the USA as well.  This is not specific to Mormons, who tend to buck such trends to some extent.

4 hours ago, JAHS said:

......................................................
6. Stake Discontinuations and Congregational Decline in South Korea
...................................................   

The South Korean birthrate is at 1.19 children per female now, and Asian birthrates are low in general.  This means an aging population which is not being replaced.  That alone means all religious congregations are declining and will continue to decline.  Has nothing to do with lack of interest in the Mormon message.  http://www.eastwestcenter.org/news-center/east-west-wire/declining-birth-rates-raising-concerns-in-asia .

[JAHS]

12 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

The South Korean birthrate is at 1.19 children per female now, and Asian birthrates are low in general.  This means an aging population which is not being replaced.  That alone means all religious congregations are declining and will continue to decline.

Low in the US too:

"The US fertility rate fell to the lowest point since record keeping started more than a century ago, according to statistics released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In 1909, the government began keeping track of what's called the fertility rate. The general fertility rate is the number of births out of 1,000 women between the ages of 15 to 44.
In the first three months of 2016, the fertility rate in the US fell to the lowest level. The rate was 59.8 births per 1,000 women." (CDC)

[Robert F. Smith]

27 minutes ago, JAHS said:

Low in the US too:

"The US fertility rate fell to the lowest point since record keeping started more than a century ago, according to statistics released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In 1909, the government began keeping track of what's called the fertility rate. The general fertility rate is the number of births out of 1,000 women between the ages of 15 to 44.
In the first three months of 2016, the fertility rate in the US fell to the lowest level. The rate was 59.8 births per 1,000 women." (CDC)

Yes, but the U.S. pattern is unpredictable, http://www.attn.com/stories/8571/why-the-united-states-birth-rate-is-declining :

Moreover, while the national average is currently 1.8 children per American mother, the Mormon birthrate is consistently higher in the USA -- 2.3 children per mother in Utah (http://fox13now.com/2016/01/10/despite-downward-trend-utah-maintains-highest-average-fertility-rate-in-nation/ ).   And Utah is the fastest growing state in the nation.

However, Orthodox Jews in America have a fertility rate of 3.4 children per mother (Israeli Jewish women average 3 children per mother, and Palestinian women 4 children per mother).  So Mormons are not the most fertile.

[rockpond]

Is it fair to summarize as:  Church growth continues or increases in third world counties while slowing or stagnating elsewhere?

[carbon dioxide]

I think we worry way to much about Church growth.  If the Lord wanted the Church to grow to 100 million by 2020 he has tools to get it done. 

[JAHS]

19 minutes ago, carbon dioxide said:

I think we worry way to much about Church growth.  If the Lord wanted the Church to grow to 100 million by 2020 he has tools to get it done. 

I agree. I think the slowing in church growth is a symptom of the signs of the times that were foretold by the prophets and something that is simply expected.  The world is becoming more and more secular and people are less interested in matters of faith and religion. We should still do all we can to save souls, but not be so surprised that there are less and less who want to be saved.

 

[Johnnie Cake]

This has got to be taking a toll right where it hurts the church the most...in tithing receipts.  If North America, continues down this path of slower growth...where a huge majority of church tithing comes from...expect consequences in the years to come...to follow. 

On a side note, how exactly does this fit in with the church filling the earth prophecies?  Has that been fulfilled so now the church can slowly atrophy and whimper into the 2nd coming?

 

[JAHS]

22 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

This has got to be taking a toll right where it hurts the church the most...in tithing receipts.  If North America, continues down this path of slower growth...where a huge majority of church tithing comes from...expect consequences in the years to come...to follow. 

On a side note, how exactly does this fit in with the church filling the earth prophecies?  Has that been fulfilled so now the church can slowly atrophy and whimper into the 2nd coming?

 

The church is quite wealthy in other areas that are not dependent on tithing, which I think if needed could make up any deficiencies that might come from fewer donations.  
Filling the earth doesn't have to mean numbers of members. The church is filling the earth with it's doctrines and teachings through the missionary efforts. 

[carbon dioxide]

1 hour ago, Johnnie Cake said:

This has got to be taking a toll right where it hurts the church the most...in tithing receipts.  If North America, continues down this path of slower growth...where a huge majority of church tithing comes from...expect consequences in the years to come...to follow. 

On a side note, how exactly does this fit in with the church filling the earth prophecies?  Has that been fulfilled so now the church can slowly atrophy and whimper into the 2nd coming?

 

Perhaps history repeats itself. There is no indication in 3 Nephi that the Church was free of trouble and was growing like a weed before Christ came to the Nephites and destroyed the wicked.  The prophecies do not require a Church to be fast growing to be fulfilled.  It is possible that the Church will be smaller than it is today but a much more faithful group. 

Edited January 4, 2017 by carbon dioxide

[Robert F. Smith]

2 hours ago, Johnnie Cake said:

This has got to be taking a toll right where it hurts the church the most...in tithing receipts.  If North America, continues down this path of slower growth...where a huge majority of church tithing comes from...expect consequences in the years to come...to follow. 

On a side note, how exactly does this fit in with the church filling the earth prophecies?  Has that been fulfilled so now the church can slowly atrophy and whimper into the 2nd coming?

The LDS Church is still increasing in membership, which is not true of some other religious groups -- which must close and sell off properties all over the place to stay solvent.  As with any other organization or club which has expenses and dues-paying members, there does need to be a cadre of the faithful continuing to pay their dues.  Mormons have seen no difficulty in that regard, and that is likely to be the case far into the future.  I see no atrophy in  the offing, and only the anti-Mormons are whimpering.

[sdc999]

5 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

The LDS Church is still increasing in membership, which is not true of some other religious groups -- which must close and sell off properties all over the place to stay solvent.  As with any other organization or club which has expenses and dues-paying members, there does need to be a cadre of the faithful continuing to pay their dues.  Mormons have seen no difficulty in that regard, and that is likely to be the case far into the future.  I see no atrophy in  the offing, and only the anti-Mormons are whimpering.

Are you kidding?  Sure they do.  The LDS church is always evolving in the matter of consolidation or closing or even opening a new ward.  If a ward is not self sustaining, per tithing, I'm betting they will be absorbed into another ward over time.  One thing the LDS church is not ignorant in,  and that is business.   Yes, you need to have enough members to fill the callings but I've never witnessed a ward in  a predominately welfare area.   When a member, I have sat in meetings where discussions were about concern of too much assistance going out (ie, cash outflow vs cash inflow)  for members.  Those discussions were driven from the top down according to the bishop.  

A great thing the church did in its infancy was to diversify into other  businesses.  Legally and wisely, they keep these separate.  Most are very successful.  With the help of a very good lawyer, my businesses are set up the same way.  There is no cross accountability which is bullet proof in litigation.  Yet, these businesses may transfer funds as needed amongst one another.   

So, a lack of "cadre of the faithful" will lead to downsizing.  Else, I would say that a ward would never be closed once opened. 

The LDS church is going nowhere.  Growth has slowed as it has with nearly all faiths within the US.  The exception being the Cowboy Church which is popping up nearly everywhere. 

[omni]

10 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

The LDS Church is still increasing in membership, which is not true of some other religious groups -- which must close and sell off properties

Correct, however you must acknowledge our high birth rate and 85,000 strong missionary force as the primary factors in our growth (albeit anemic).  Without these benefits, I have little doubt we would be in the same predicament.

[cinepro]

2 hours ago, omni said:

Correct, however you must acknowledge our high birth rate and 85,000 strong missionary force as the primary factors in our growth (albeit anemic).  Without these benefits, I have little doubt we would be in the same predicament.

74,079 missionaries..

http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/facts-and-statistics

[omni]

2 hours ago, cinepro said:

74,079 missionaries..

http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/facts-and-statistics

Ah yes thanks, I may have been a bit optimistic based on Elder Holland's prediction.

[Robert F. Smith]

On 1/4/2017 at 10:22 AM, omni said:

Correct, however you must acknowledge our high birth rate and 85,000 strong missionary force as the primary factors in our growth (albeit anemic).  Without these benefits, I have little doubt we would be in the same predicament.

Those other churches once had strong domestic and foreign missionary forces.  Diminishing numbers and cash has forced them to downsize, with extinction as an actual future.  For example, the Presbyterian Church once had a strong missionary force in Utah.  They sent whole families to Utah to convert Mormons, and they even established Westminster College in SLC.  Today they are so weak that they need Mormon support to keep up appearances (LDS Church members strongly supported Westminster College when it was about to go bankrupt and close).

The high LDS birthrate and strong missionary force are not a "trick" designed to aid growth, but are the warp and woof of the Gospel, which the other churches have abandoned.  If the LDS Church abandoned the Gospel they would be in the same predicament.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Robert F. Smith

[Oliblish]

20 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

The South Korean birthrate is at 1.19 children per female now, and Asian birthrates are low in general.  This means an aging population which is not being replaced.  That alone means all religious congregations are declining and will continue to decline.  Has nothing to do with lack of interest in the Mormon message.  http://www.eastwestcenter.org/news-center/east-west-wire/declining-birth-rates-raising-concerns-in-asia .

The problem in South Korea is much more than a low birth rate.  It has some of the worst statistics as far as active membership numbers in the world (maybe Chile would beat them out).  

 I think the best metric we have to track changes in the number of active members is to follow the number of wards and branches (units).  In spite of  having 4 missions in South Korea, they have shut down 53 units (from 175 to 122) since 1999.  That is a 30% loss in 15 years.  During the same period the population of the country has increased 10%.  

These statistics and the graph below are found at cumorah.com

cumorah.com South Korea Stats