stemelbow Posted April 30, 2015 Posted April 30, 2015 Somebody created this little analysis: http://www.fullerconsideration.com/membership.php Interesting huh? With his assumptions he's estimating nearly 2 million ex-LDS running around this world. Wow. That'd be astounding. he explains some of his reasoning on this reddit thread: http://www.reddit.com/r/exmormon/comments/34c8qi/i_just_finished_an_intense_analysis_of_over_100/ So he says regarding activity rate estimating: " I'm assuming children born to active members are added to the records, and children born to inactive members are not. The discrepancy between birth rate and rate of children being added to the records is growing, which means the activity rate is falling. My end result appears to align with data reported by cumorah.com." Fewf! Thoughts? 1
Senator Posted April 30, 2015 Posted April 30, 2015 What ever happened to that GA talk about not catagorizing/labeling people? If that address had stuck, the last three columns in the tabular data would be undefinable.
ALarson Posted April 30, 2015 Posted April 30, 2015 (edited) These are interesting, thanks for posting them, stemelbow. The growth of the church from 1970 to 1990 is a sharp upswing. Then it starts to drop. What happened during those 20 years of growth that then suddenly changed around 1990? Any opinions on that? Internet? Edited April 30, 2015 by ALarson
Gray Posted April 30, 2015 Posted April 30, 2015 (edited) He's wrong on activity rate. I believe there is an old church-published article that said that activity rate in the 20s was in the 20s, improving to the mid-30s (percentage-wise) by the 1960s. I doubt the church has ever had close to a 100% activity rate. Maybe in the first month of the church's history Edited April 30, 2015 by Gray 2
HappyJackWagon Posted April 30, 2015 Posted April 30, 2015 If the parable of the 10 virgins is really about the strength of the church at the time of Christ's 2nd coming the Church has a lot of progress to make to reach that 50% mark. And considering how many members feel the 2nd Coming is just around the corner, they may need to hurry. Oh, so maybe that's what they mean by Hastening the Work.
Nevo Posted April 30, 2015 Posted April 30, 2015 (edited) I am basically innumerate so I have no way of evaluating the validity of his analysis, but I would not be surprised if church activity has been trending downward for the past 50 years. That's consistent with the broader societal turn toward secularism over the same period. A commentary posted a couple of years ago on the Church's Newsroom website noted the following: The number of those who claim no religious affiliation nearly doubled from 8.2 percent in 1990 to 15 percent in 2008. Now that number has crept to nearly 20 percent. And among those under 30 years old, disaffiliation jumps to 32 percent. In many ways religion finds itself on the margins of society, where one’s beliefs and values may be expressed privately but are often dismissed publicly. . . . Philosopher Charles Taylor describes the current environment as a shift "from a society in which it was virtually impossible not to believe in God, to one in which faith, even for the staunchest believer, is one human possibility among others." . . . With its teeming plurality of choices and possibilities, our modern world presents unique challenges to religion. Endless philosophies, ideologies and truth claims clamor for attention, magnified by instantaneous media. Globalization pushes peoples and cultures together. Different religions and worldviews interact and collide. Personal preferences alone become a guide in dealing with moral dilemmas. In this flux individuals can feel isolated and become disconnected from their communities. Modernity, therefore, is not just one thing; it is a commotion of many things. But it can tend toward fragmentation. In this competition of choices, according to Charles Taylor, living a religious life can be "an embattled option," making it "hard to sustain one’s faith." In such an atmosphere, he continues, many will "feel bound to give [their faith] up, even though they mourn its loss." http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/relevance-religion Edited April 30, 2015 by Nevo 3
stemelbow Posted April 30, 2015 Author Posted April 30, 2015 These are interesting, thanks for posting them, stemelbow. The growth of the church from 1970 to 1990 is a sharp upswing. Then it starts to drop. What happened during those 20 years of growth that then suddenly changed around 1990? Any opinions on that? Internet? internet probably plays a roll, particularly the last 20 years. From posters here, I've heard, I believe: There were more careless baptisms in the 70s and 80s then now (meaning missionaries did gimmicky baptisms of people who weren't really converted), The missionaries have focused more on reactivitation (it was pretty good focus on my mission 20 years ago and we saw many convert baptisms because of the effort, so that's questionable), and a more secular world.
stemelbow Posted April 30, 2015 Author Posted April 30, 2015 He's wrong on activity rate. I believe there is an old church-published article that said that activity rate in the 20s was in the 20s, improving to the mid-30s (percentage-wise) by the 1960s. I doubt the church has ever had close to a 100% activity rate. Maybe in the first month of the church's history yeah. I don't know if he projected backward and it caused the rates to be so high in his figures or what. but it's interesting to consider the activity rate now, and how he's figured it, with more current numbers. Seems about right.
cinepro Posted April 30, 2015 Posted April 30, 2015 He's wrong on activity rate. I believe there is an old church-published article that said that activity rate in the 20s was in the 20s, improving to the mid-30s (percentage-wise) by the 1960s. I doubt the church has ever had close to a 100% activity rate. Maybe in the first month of the church's history That's the most obvious flaw in his estimates. I too recall seeing an official Church number from the early 20th century stating the activity rate was below 40%.
Robert F. Smith Posted May 1, 2015 Posted May 1, 2015 ..................................................................... http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/relevance-religionWise words, indeed.
Boanerges Posted May 1, 2015 Posted May 1, 2015 I don't buy the 100% activity in the 1920s either, but I think the current stat estimate is about right. In my area (eastern U.S.) the activity rate is about 35% based on the number of people on the rolls compared to the average number of people in the pews on any given Sunday in my stake. My son reports the activity rate in his mission in Chile is about 10%, reporting rolls having about 1000 in a ward and arund 100 or a little less in church. He does ascribe this to the doorstep conversions, "pool parties," etc. of the past (70s and early 80s.) Most of these people don't identify as Mormon and many are "lost" as far as record keeping is concerned (another huge problem). My understanding is that activity rates in the Corridor are a bit higher, perhaps closer to the 50% range. That probably does average out to about a third of the membership of the church being active. 1
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