The Church Hemorrhaging Members? Not In Missoula!

[rockpond]

No need. Kent Larsen from Times and Seasons has a google spreadsheet here.

 

Since the year 2000, we averaged a 0.91% increase in wards and branches, and a 0.96% increase in the number of stakes. Membership increased 2.48% per year during the period.  Number of members per ward or branch increased from 427 in 2000, to 509 in 2012. It is unclear if this is a result of more inactivity or a desire for bigger wards.

 

As a comparison, the US population growth rate from 2005-2010 was 0.97%. The world was at 1.1% growth rate in 2012.

 

Thanks!

[cinepro]

I think that the problem is to decide who is active or inactive. So, they must go on members who are on the roles. What more can they do? If I only attend sunday school, am I active or inactive?

 

This isn't a mystery to the Church leaders.  It's only a mystery to us because they won't tell us, so we have to make guesses, share anecdotes, and build spreadsheets off the incomplete (and inconsistent) information they do give.

 

The Church knows exactly how many people are attending Sacrament meeting, paying tithing or getting Temple recommends.  Those numbers could be shared easily, but I suspect they would give a surprising picture into what, exactly, the "14,782,473" LDS are doing with their time and money.

 

In other words, I suspect the primary determinant to whether or not a statistic is shared is whether or not it makes the Church look good.

 

4,689 Family History Centers!  Who knew?! 

Edited September 23, 2013 by cinepro

[thesometimesaint]

This isn't a mystery to the Church leaders.  It's only a mystery to us because they won't tell us, so we have to make guesses, share anecdotes, and build spreadsheets off the incomplete (and inconsistent) information they do give.

 

The Church knows exactly how many people are attending Sacrament meeting, paying tithing or getting Temple recommends.  Those numbers could be shared easily, but I suspect they would give a surprising picture into what, exactly, the "14,782,473" LDS are doing with their time and money.

 

In other words, I suspect the primary determinant to whether or not a statistic is shared is whether or not it makes the Church look good.

 

4,689 Family History Centers!  Who knew?! 

 

Not really. Sacrament Meetings give a rough estimate of/for Church attendence, but not gross numbers of members.

 

I know several members whom pay no tithing are they not members of the Church?

 

Same with Temple Recommends issued.

 

If we were just trying to look good why not claim over a billion members like the Catholics do? We do claim that we have over a billion names of those that we have done the Temple work for.

Edited September 23, 2013 by thesometimesaint

[bluebell]

About a mile past the end of the world.  While it is out of the way it is in a very pretty area.  Montana.

 

It's not that out of the way.  It's four hours from Spokane Washington, right on Interstate 90.  For those who follow College Football, it's the home to the University of Montana.

 

[bluebell]

Thanks (seriously). It was a serious question and I appreciate your comical answer. You made me smile. I have yet to visit Montana. If a temple is built then I have an extra reason to visit.

 

You should visit!  I pretty much claim Montana as my second home. 

[ERayR]

This isn't a mystery to the Church leaders.  It's only a mystery to us because they won't tell us, so we have to make guesses, share anecdotes, and build spreadsheets off the incomplete (and inconsistent) information they do give.

 

The Church knows exactly how many people are attending Sacrament meeting, paying tithing or getting Temple recommends.  Those numbers could be shared easily, but I suspect they would give a surprising picture into what, exactly, the "14,782,473" LDS are doing with their time and money.

 

In other words, I suspect the primary determinant to whether or not a statistic is shared is whether or not it makes the Church look good.

 

4,689 Family History Centers!  Who knew?! 

 

I hear the poor me rant again.

[thesometimesaint]

My brother recently moved to Montana. He is not so eagerly awaiting winter.

[ERayR]

It's not that out of the way.  It's four hours from Spokane Washington, right on Interstate 90.  For those who follow College Football, it's the home to the University of Montana.

 

 

I know right where it is.  I lived in Great Falls for a short time and passed through it in my way to and from Idaho.  It is a very pretty setting but mining does leave some blighted areas.

[cinepro]

Not really. Sacrament Meetings give a rough estimate of/for Church attendence, but not gross numbers of members.

 

I know several members whom pay no tithing are they not members of the Church?

 

Same with Temple Recommends issued.

 

If we were just trying to look good why not claim over a billion members like the Catholics do? We do claim that we have over a billion names of those that we have done the Temple work for.

 

 

My point is that they can report more than one number.  So there's nothing wrong with saying "we've got 14 million members", but they could also add more information, like the SVA's do:

 

Contributions................................................................................................................... In US Dollars

Tithe.............................................................................................................................. $2,037,618,294

Tithe Per Capita........................................................................................................................ $127.20

Sabbath School Mission Offerings............................................................................... $61,362,489

Ingathering........................................................................................................................ $11,067,178

Total Tithe and Offerings........................................................................................... $2,900,945,610

Total Tithe and Offerings Per Capita.................................................................................... $181.09

[bluebell]

My brother recently moved to Montana. He is not so eagerly awaiting winter.

Where in Montana did he move?

[bluebell]

I know right where it is. I lived in Great Falls for a short time and passed through it in my way to and from Idaho. It is a very pretty setting but mining does leave some blighted areas.

Ha, I don't remember any mining in the area but ive only been thru there a handful of times. It can't be as bad as Butte though I hope.

[ERayR]

Ha, I don't remember any mining in the area but ive only been thru there a handful of times. It can't be as bad as Butte though I hope.

 

Looks like I may have it mixed up with Butte on the mines.  It does seem to have its share of sand and gravel extraction though.

 

http://mines.findthedata.org/d/s/Montana/Missoula

[thesometimesaint]

Where in Montana did he move?

 

Billings.

[bluebell]

Billings.

 

AH!!  I love Billings!  We just moved away from there last year after living their for quite a while.  Do you know what ward he is in?? 

 

The winters there are generally not that bad.  Usually, they don't get much snow at a time (5 inches in a storm would be considered quite a bit, for example), or many days with a high below zero.

[ERayR]

Billings.

 

Aww.  The Billings airport right up on the bluffs.

[bluebell]

Aww. The Billings airport right up on the bluffs.

If you want to sound like a local, call them the Rims.

[ERayR]

If you want to sound like a local, call them the Rims.

 

Whatever you call them flying in and out in a twin engine turbo-prop (a culvert with wings and motors) is certainly an adventure sometimes.  I could recite some very funny experiences on those flights.

[Stargazer]

Ours is 3 wards and a branch with each ward at 400 or more per ward.

 

 

Our ward is at 6 or 7 so far this year with 2 or 3 more scheduled at this time and a teaching pool of over a dozen.  Not bad for one of 3 wards in a small town of less than 4,000.

 

Is it growth by way of new members, or growth because of new move-ins?

[ERayR]

Is it growth by way of new members, or growth because of new move-ins?

 

Both but a dozen new converts a year accounts for a good part.  And some of those move ins are recent converts.

[bluebell]

Whatever you call them flying in and out in a twin engine turbo-prop (a culvert with wings and motors) is certainly an adventure sometimes. I could recite some very funny experiences on those flights.

I have no doubt!

My husband was born and raised in Billings and took flying lessons in high school...until he bounced a plane on the landing because of turbulence. After that, he decided flying wasn't for him.

[Bikeemikey]

I think that the problem is to decide who is active or inactive. So, they must go on members who are on the roles. What more can they do? If I only attend sunday school, am I active or inactive?

The point is the church counts active members quite accurately in order to determine ward budget levels.

An active member is a member the church provides a funding allocation for.

Edited September 24, 2013 by Bikeemikey

[stemelbow]

While personal anecdotes are fun, I would recommend calculating the number of members per unit and see the change over the last twenty years. This should give us a better picture of the real growth.

 

Not really.  Missoula is a fairly trendy area, as I understand it.  over 20 years many people surely have transplanted to the area.  At least some of the growth in the area is attributed to such moves--and probably the majority of it would be. 

[omni]

Not really. Missoula is a fairly trendy area, as I understand it. over 20 years many people surely have transplanted to the area. At least some of the growth in the area is attributed to such moves--and probably the majority of it would be.

Yes, which is exactly my point. If you take the average members per unit for the entire church you will notice that the numbers are steadily increasing. This indicates that it is taking more and more members to fill each unit.

[stemelbow]

Yes, which is exactly my point. If you take the average members per unit for the entire church you will notice that the numbers are steadily increasing. This indicates that it is taking more and more members to fill each unit.

 

I see.  YOu are saying for the whole church.  My mistake. 

 

I don't think anyone is questioning that the numbers are increasing.  But people are questioning the rate of increase, it seems, and whether that increase is significant in any sensible way.  Growth will happen by sheer chance, in a way.  Families increase in size, most people don't change religions, per se, in their lives, but some do.  Those that do often change again and again, or quit it altogether. 

 

The reported numbers of 14 million and so many converts per year don't tell the story much at all, sadly. 

[rameumptom]

Nathair,

 

I grew up in Missoula.  I'm glad to see it is growing so well there.  Contact me privately, and we'll see just who we both know!