rockpond Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 If you do the math from the April 2012 to April 2013 statistical reports in Gen Con you get these figures: Total Membership growth: 2.36%Wards & Branches growth: 0.80%Stakes & Districts growth: 1.18% We had a death rate of 0.362% (roughly half the global average) If you just look at the one year deltas, you'd have to conclude that church leadership is increasing the size (member count) of wards & branches since membership grew 2x faster than unit count. But it's just one year. When I have more time, I could look at additional years to see the trends.
ERayR Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 If you do the math from the April 2012 to April 2013 statistical reports in Gen Con you get these figures: Total Membership growth: 2.36%Wards & Branches growth: 0.80%Stakes & Districts growth: 1.18% We had a death rate of 0.362% (roughly half the global average) If you just look at the one year deltas, you'd have to conclude that church leadership is increasing the size (member count) of wards & branches since membership grew 2x faster than unit count. But it's just one year. When I have more time, I could look at additional years to see the trends. If I understand your statistics correctly this would indicate an increase in unit size.
rockpond Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 If I understand your statistics correctly this would indicate an increase in unit size. Exactly. From 2011 to 2012, total membership grew at a rate of 2.36%. That is almost three times as fast as the rate of increase for the number of wards/branches (0.80%). Granted, this is just a one year delta, more useful to look at trends but I don't have the time to run those numbers right now. I'll try to later. Moral of the story: If you saw the size of your ward increase over the past year, you were in (plenty of) good company. I don't mind larger wards, but if that is the direction we are headed in... I hope that we'll increase the size of our buildings. We're runnin' out of classrooms in my ward!
stemelbow Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 Its a tough world we face. If we can truly count members on record as believers, we'd still only be .2% of the world's population and that percentage may be shrinking. It seems like the figure I heard as a kid was we were .5% percent of the worlds population. But it doesn't seem we have a good way to measure actual believers. Some people who are active aren't believers--they may just go to appease their families. Many people who "leave" the Church just walk on out and don't worry about getting their names removed. So we have a huge population of "inactives" (indeed it appears more of these than those who do attend) who either don't really believe, or don't want to attend for whatever reason. And sadly as it comes out the percentage of people inactive compared to active seems, also to be getting larger. Areas may grow in the US but that may be in part, at least, due to people moving around. Many people converting also leave before they are really integrated. This ain't easy and it's not simple. It's all very complicated. But we tend to continue to boast about growth and numbers anyway, for some odd reason.
ERayR Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 Exactly. From 2011 to 2012, total membership grew at a rate of 2.36%. That is almost three times as fast as the rate of increase for the number of wards/branches (0.80%). Granted, this is just a one year delta, more useful to look at trends but I don't have the time to run those numbers right now. I'll try to later. Moral of the story: If you saw the size of your ward increase over the past year, you were in (plenty of) good company. I don't mind larger wards, but if that is the direction we are headed in... I hope that we'll increase the size of our buildings. We're runnin' out of classrooms in my ward! As a ward clerk watching attendance numbers I have seen an increase in the activity measures of about 20%. We have gone from a sacrament meeting attendance of about 150 to about 190.
thesometimesaint Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 We actually keep better track of our members activity than most churches do. There is no doubt that our numbers growth is impressive. I've never expected that Church membership would be more than a small minority of the population of the world in this life. That being said; what percentage of volume does salt need to be to give savor to the whole loaf? 1
ERayR Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 We actually keep better track of our members activity than most churches do. There is no doubt that our numbers growth is impressive. I've never expected that Church membership would be more than a small minority of the population of the world in this life. That being said; what percentage of volume does salt need to be to give savor to the whole loaf? And in reality I do expect the time will come when there will be another sizable apostasy from the church.
sdc999 Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 It's kind of a two faced way of looking at things from Salt Lake. Salt Lake : We have over 14 million members. Local ward: We have 400/14million members of the ward. Can we base our ward budget from Salt Lake on that number.? Salt Lake: No, for budget allocation purposes we revert back to bottoms warming the pews on Sunday.
thesometimesaint Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 And in reality I do expect the time will come when there will be another sizable apostasy from the church. The Parable of the Ten Virgins was directed at Church members.
stemelbow Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 As a ward clerk watching attendance numbers I have seen an increase in the activity measures of about 20%. We have gone from a sacrament meeting attendance of about 150 to about 190. If every congregation in the world could follow suit, it'd be one incredible work to see church attendance world-wide go up 20%.
sdc999 Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 And in reality I do expect the time will come when there will be another sizable apostasy from the church.What do you think will be the driving force behind it?
stemelbow Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 And in reality I do expect the time will come when there will be another sizable apostasy from the church. That's just it, each year we have a sizable apostasy. If our worldwide activity rate is somewhere in the range of 30-40% as I've been told, then our actual believing figure is probably closer to the number of 4 or 5 million rather than 14 million. if our activity rate just keeps shrinking world-wide, which seems to be the case, then al the people we are adding in through conversion seem to be leaving at a much faster rate than do the rest of us members--and that figure isn't just a few. We have no measure of it now, but it seems like each year we are seeing people convert and leave because of whatever reason and added to that we are seeing another group of members just up and leave for various reasons.
ERayR Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 It's kind of a two faced way of looking at things from Salt Lake. Salt Lake : We have over 14 million members. Local ward: We have 400/14million members of the ward. Can we base our ward budget from Salt Lake on that number.? Salt Lake: No, for budget allocation purposes we revert back to bottoms warming the pews on Sunday. Plus a building complete with maintenance and repair, heating and cooling bills paid and telephone service. Lets see have I forgotten anything? Probably. The allotment from Church headquarters is for the program expenses and it is the "bottoms warming the benches" that use those programs. No use for sending money for the use of programs not used.
thesometimesaint Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 It's kind of a two faced way of looking at things from Salt Lake. Salt Lake : We have over 14 million members. Local ward: We have 400/14million members of the ward. Can we base our ward budget from Salt Lake on that number.? Salt Lake: No, for budget allocation purposes we revert back to bottoms warming the pews on Sunday. We form a Ward on the basis of the number of Melchezedic Priesthood holders. We base budget on the activity rate of the local congregation. With attendence of at least one Sacrament Meeting attendence per month s the standard measure. No reasonable person would expect to base their individual budget based on total population. IE; Both my wife and I worked. We based our budget on that. While allowing for children, family, friends, and pets to have influence.
sdc999 Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 Plus a building complete with maintenance and repair, heating and cooling bills paid and telephone service. Lets see have I forgotten anything? Probably. The allotment from Church headquarters is for the program expenses and it is the "bottoms warming the benches" that use those programs. No use for sending money for the use of programs not used.I agree but my point was more in the way of not ever hearing Salt Lake come out and say, We have about 5-6 million active Latter Day Saints world wide. They always emphasize 14 million members.
why me Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 I agree but my point was more in the way of not ever hearing Salt Lake come out and say, We have about 5-6 million active Latter Day Saints world wide. They always emphasize 14 million members.I think that the problem is to decide who is active or inactive. So, they must go on members who are on the roles. What more can they do? If I only attend sunday school, am I active or inactive?
ERayR Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 Where's Missoula? About a mile past the end of the world. While it is out of the way it is in a very pretty area. Montana. 2
rockpond Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 I now have four years of the Gen Con stat reports plugged into my spreadsheet now... Each year, total membership increases at a rate about three times that of the increase in number of wards/branches (and at about twice the rate of increase in stakes/districts). I'll keep going and try to see when that trend began.
Damien the Leper Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 About a mile past the end of the world. While it is out of the way it is in a very pretty area. Montana. Thanks (seriously). It was a serious question and I appreciate your comical answer. You made me smile. I have yet to visit Montana. If a temple is built then I have an extra reason to visit.
omni Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 While personal anecdotes are fun, I would recommend calculating the number of members per unit and see the change over the last twenty years. This should give us a better picture of the real growth.
Nathair/|\ Posted September 23, 2013 Author Posted September 23, 2013 (edited) Where's Missoula?Roughly where heaven and earth come together. It's just off I-90 between Butte and Coeur d'Alene and on the Clark Fork river. It's not far from Lolo pass where Lewis and Clark crossed the Continental Divide. It used to be Salish territory and before that, it used to be a glacial lake. Periodically, the ice dam at the south end of the valley would break and the waters would create incredible floods which formed the rough country of SE Washington. Edited September 23, 2013 by Nathair 2
Damien the Leper Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 Roughly where heaven and earth come together. It's just off I-90 between Butte and Coeur d'Alene and on the Clark Fork river. It's not far from Lolo pass where Lewis and Clark crossed the Continental Divide. It used to be Salish territory and before that, it used to be a glacial lake. Periodically, the ice dam at the south end of the valley would break and the waters would create incredible floods which formed the rough country of SE Washington. Ugh! It's so damn beautiful and has more history that I should take the time to learn!
thesometimesaint Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 While personal anecdotes are fun, I would recommend calculating the number of members per unit and see the change over the last twenty years. This should give us a better picture of the real growth. The numbers per unit have stayed relatively constant. There is no hard an fast number, but generally once a single Ward has more than 200-400 members they split the Ward into two separate Wards. See growth of the Church.
SeekingUnderstanding Posted September 23, 2013 Posted September 23, 2013 I now have four years of the Gen Con stat reports plugged into my spreadsheet now... Each year, total membership increases at a rate about three times that of the increase in number of wards/branches (and at about twice the rate of increase in stakes/districts). I'll keep going and try to see when that trend began.No need. Kent Larsen from Times and Seasons has a google spreadsheet here. Since the year 2000, we averaged a 0.91% increase in wards and branches, and a 0.96% increase in the number of stakes. Membership increased 2.48% per year during the period. Number of members per ward or branch increased from 427 in 2000, to 509 in 2012. It is unclear if this is a result of more inactivity or a desire for bigger wards. As a comparison, the US population growth rate from 2005-2010 was 0.97%. The world was at 1.1% growth rate in 2012.
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