rodheadlee Posted May 16, 2020 Posted May 16, 2020 (edited) Don't you think God will guard our missionaries? Even if they die they will die doing the most important service to mankind and they will be rewarded accordingly. How can the country draw near to God, repent and be baptized without missionaries to spread the word? We are in a war here people, they are on the frontlines. Edited May 16, 2020 by rodheadlee
mnn727 Posted May 18, 2020 Posted May 18, 2020 On 5/14/2020 at 6:16 PM, The Nehor said: A 9/11 death count roughly every two days and we have not seen what will happen due to the opening up yet. I do not count that as a few. Your numbers are not even close.
The Nehor Posted May 18, 2020 Posted May 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, mnn727 said: Your numbers are not even close. About 2,573 dead from the WTC, about 2,977 total victims not counting the hijackers and I do not count them. Dead in the US by day: 5/16 1,231 5/15 1,524 5/14 1,858 5/13 1,715 5/12 1,591 5/11 840 5/10 945 5/9 1,555 5/8 1,695 5/7 1,971 5/6 2,701 So yeah, that is roughly right if you add any two adjacent numbers they are close to the 9/11 death toll some going a little under and some a little or quite a bit over except for the two day dip in the middle which is the normal weekend dip where there is a greater delay in reporting. If you are using one of the CDC counts, specifically the one that is perpetually weeks to months behind due to the process needed then yeah, it looks not even close but that count is perpetually out of date and the data collected will only be useful once it is over and everything is processed. Everyone who looks into the process knows it is not up to date or accurate now.
mnn727 Posted May 19, 2020 Posted May 19, 2020 If you read my original post I said " If you remove the deaths from: NYC, Nursing homes and Prisons that actual death count is low". Your number include ALL deaths. And frankly, your number of deaths never does hit the level of 9/11. Also you should know that if a person dies due to some other reason, but tests show they had the corona virus, in the U.S. thats counted as a Corona virus death, not true in other countries. 1
Calm Posted May 19, 2020 Posted May 19, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, mnn727 said: If you read my original post I said " If you remove the deaths from: NYC, Nursing homes and Prisons that actual death count is low". Your number include ALL deaths. And frankly, your number of deaths never does hit the level of 9/11. Also you should know that if a person dies due to some other reason, but tests show they had the corona virus, in the U.S. thats counted as a Corona virus death, not true in other countries. And then there is this POV: https://www.businessinsider.com/actual-coronavirus-deaths-in-italy-us-higher-than-official-count-2020-5 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html Edited May 19, 2020 by Calm
The Nehor Posted May 19, 2020 Posted May 19, 2020 (edited) 16 hours ago, mnn727 said: If you read my original post I said " If you remove the deaths from: NYC, Nursing homes and Prisons that actual death count is low". Your number include ALL deaths. It is still not low and why do you arbitrarily exclude those deaths? 16 hours ago, mnn727 said: And frankly, your number of deaths never does hit the level of 9/11. It hits the death toll about every two days as I said. Would it help if I said it roughly hits the death toll of one of the two towers each day? If you are looking to see us hit the total 9/11 death toll every day before it "counts" I would encourage you to watch and wait. I expect it will soon. Not happily expect but I do expect it. 16 hours ago, mnn727 said: Also you should know that if a person dies due to some other reason, but tests show they had the corona virus, in the U.S. thats counted as a Corona virus death, not true in other countries. That is a fallacious rhetorical talking point making the rounds: "Tell me lies. Tell me sweet little lies." In practice in almost all cases it means the speaker is complaining that complications of COVID killed them and not COVID itself even though they would not have died without COVID. That is and should be a COVID death. Every state has its own standard for what counts as a COVID death as does each nation. You are overgeneralizing the United States. You are also overgeneralizing "other countries". There is a difference between Russia's coverup and Belgium's relative openness. If anything COVID deaths are being undercounted in the US. There is no compelling reason to try to exaggerate deaths and case counts that do not rely on zany conspiracy theories. Overcounts may still occur of course but we do have evidence of undercounting and there is a strong motive to go that way and we can turn to recent history for examples. The government showed their willingness to fudge numbers in the Puerto Rico disaster where it took Freedom of Information Act requests, lawsuits, and a lot of poking and prodding to push the death toll from the official 64 to 2,975. The evidence for it going on now is strong. In Florida they just had a firing for refusing to lie to the public. Georgia's health department released this graph. Looks like numbers are falling but can you spot any problems with it that may be misleading or deceptive? I spotted three major problems. There is also the "excess death" statistic. When studying disasters and epidemics it is normal to look at the normal amount of deaths in a year and compare them to the number of total deaths. Many consider this to be the most accurate way of finding out how many died. Unfortunately the full death counts are hard to get. The best source is probably the CDC but they are also operating on up to a two month delay in getting final figures. If anything this would still be an underreporting due to lifestyle changes. Fewer people are getting the flue than usual due to precautions and fewer people are travelling which also reduces the death toll. We will probably find an uptick in domestic violence deaths, alcoholism related deaths, and suicides and the like but they are anticipated to not be nearly enough to cover the reduced death toll due to quarantine safety unrelated to COVID. If you want to play around with excess death numbers the CDC has a site. Be careful of the most recent data though and the most recent weeks are not shown at all. The closer it comes to the present the less complete the count is: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm Europe has a similar problem with underreporting. Britain has the most excess deaths not fitting with their COVID numbers: https://voxeu.org/article/excess-mortality-england-european-outlier-covid-19-pandemic Then again there is also the "death shifting" effect which may mitigate the numbers. If someone has cancer and has an estimated six months to live and gets COVID and dies then yeah, they died from COVID, but statisticians will need to watch in the months following for decreases below the normal death count to get a better grasp of how many deaths that are attributable to the pandemic would have died soon in any case. There are discussions of how much this should factor in and on what time scale. Saying someone would have died eventually anyways is meaningless if you extend it out far enough as everyone is anticipated to die in any case. Sorry, I can be a stats nerd. Edited May 19, 2020 by The Nehor 2
Calm Posted May 19, 2020 Posted May 19, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, The Nehor said: spotted three major problems. Did they really put the dates by descending cases rather than chronologically? I find that so unlikely I have to confirm what I am seeing. What are the other two problems, my brain is turned off today. Edited May 19, 2020 by Calm
The Nehor Posted May 19, 2020 Posted May 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Calm said: Did they really put the dates by descending cases rather than chronologically? I find that so unlikely I have to confirm what I am seeing. What are the other two problems, my brain is turned off today. Yeah, they did. They changed it and tried to cover it up when they were called out but the original had been posted enough that they could not hide it. The Y axis is badly labeled. It says in the heading that it includes the number of hospitalizations and deaths? It is unclear. Shifting the county bars from highest to lowest instead of keeping them in the same place on each date furthers the illusion that numbers are dropping and further confuses the ability to spot any trends.
Calm Posted May 19, 2020 Posted May 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, The Nehor said: Yeah, they did. They changed it and tried to cover it up when they were called out but the original had been posted enough that they could not hide it. The Y axis is badly labeled. It says in the heading that it includes the number of hospitalizations and deaths? It is unclear. Shifting the county bars from highest to lowest instead of keeping them in the same place on each date furthers the illusion that numbers are dropping and further confuses the ability to spot any trends. Thanks for pointing it out. Earlier I couldn’t even remember how to access Amazon. It is one of those make no important decisions nor operate heavy machinery days...maybe no knives either.
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