Mormons Growing in America?

[Marginal Gains]

3 hours ago, Okrahomer said:

Please check your data.

9.2 million is for ALL of North America--not for the US alone.

The US number is 6.6 million.

http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/facts-and-statistics

If you had kept reading the thread you would have seen that a few posts further on I noted the error and acknowledged the correction.

[Johnnie Cake]

This thread is a great reminder of the impact of Confirmation Bias...seems we all see what we want to see

[Okrahomer]

6 hours ago, Marginal Gains said:

If you had kept reading the thread you would have seen that a few posts further on I noted the error and acknowledged the correction.

Hi Marginal.  I apologize, if I missed it--it's possible I did.  But the only thing I see you acknowledge is this:  "When I correct my population number to exclude under 18’s the numbers align better. Thanks for that."

However, the error I corrected was quite a different one.  You had said this in your original post:  "Whereas the Church claims nearly 9.2 million members in America as at the end of 2016."

The 9.2 million members you reference is for all of North America--i.e., the US, Canada, Mexico, Caribbean countries, and Central American countries; however, the PRRI self-identification data applies to the US only.  For comparison purposes then, one would need to look at claimed LDS membership in the US only.  At the end of 2016, that was just under 6.6 million members.

[clarkgoble]

27 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

This thread is a great reminder of the impact of Confirmation Bias...seems we all see what we want to see

Earnest question but how so? We have a poll with a much higher figure than either ARIS or Pew, but on the edge of the error bound. It's not clear how representative the poll is. ARIS seems to be the gold standard for a slew of reasons. Pew has problems particularly on more detailed questions about particular religious belief/behavior.  This one is a new one and it's not entirely clear how to take it or how much to trust it.

It seems to me that most of the comments have been pretty insightful nitpicking. I learned a lot I'd missed both here and at T&S.

[jkwilliams]

24 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

This thread is a great reminder of the impact of Confirmation Bias...seems we all see what we want to see

Most likely. I'm sure you've seen, as I have, the gleeful RfM posts in which exmos salivate over the church's imminent collapse. It's not going to happen. But at the same time, the days of crazy growth are likely over for the church, which is probably a good thing because it's more sustainable. Bottom line is that there will always be converts and those who leave.

[Marginal Gains]

5 minutes ago, Okrahomer said:

Hi Marginal.  I apologize, if I missed it--it's possible I did.  But the only thing I see you acknowledge is this:  "When I correct my population number to exclude under 18’s the numbers align better. Thanks for that."

However, the error I corrected was quite a different one.  You had said this in your original post:  "Whereas the Church claims nearly 9.2 million members in America as at the end of 2016."

The 9.2 million members you reference is for all of North America--i.e., the US, Canada, Mexico, Caribbean countries, and Central American countries; however, the PRRI self-identification data applies to the US only.  For comparison purposes then, one would need to look at claimed LDS membership in the US only.  At the end of 2016, that was just under 6.6 million members.

Yeah, we are talking about (more or less) the same thing. But feel free to keep berating me! 😀

[Johnnie Cake]

9 minutes ago, jkwilliams said:

Most likely. I'm sure you've seen, as I have, the gleeful RfM posts in which exmos salivate over the church's imminent collapse. It's not going to happen. But at the same time, the days of crazy growth are likely over for the church, which is probably a good thing because it's more sustainable. Bottom line is that there will always be converts and those who leave.

I don't follow RFM...but I agree with your assertion...there is confirmation bias on both sides of the argument.

[Okrahomer]

8 hours ago, clarkgoble said:

Note that's really dated though - 2003. It's a reasonably large survery - 3,290 people - but it's a phone survey. What's really interesting is that they did a followup a few years later. I've not found detailed breakdown on Mormons from wave 3 or wave 4 though. Soul Searching found that by wave 2 (18) only .3% had fallen away.

Yes.  I agree.  It is a bit dated.  Unfortunately, Soul Searching seems to be the only serious attempt to capture this sort of data about US teens.

For what it's worth, I spoke with one of statisticians at PEW a few years ago.  In fact, he called me in response to an e-mail I sent to PEW.  There had been some criticism of PEW's data about Mormons here on this board.  The main complaint was that PEW was guilty of over-sampling Utah.  The PEW researcher I spoke with acknowledged that over-sampling had in fact been a problem about a decade earlier; however, he was confident now that they had corrected it in all their later sampling. 

He also made a very interesting comment when I asked him about the differences between ARIS survey results vs. PEW.  He pointed out to me that ARIS asks a single question about religious self-identification.   There is no follow-up.  He felt this skewed their data toward generic categories like "Christian".  PEW and PRRI on the other hand ask a follow-up question when generic answers are given which pushes interviewees to provide a more detailed answer.  This fellow told me he was certain that the ARIS figures were therefore somewhat understated.

[Marginal Gains]

16 minutes ago, jkwilliams said:

Most likely. I'm sure you've seen, as I have, the gleeful RfM posts in which exmos salivate over the church's imminent collapse. It's not going to happen. But at the same time, the days of crazy growth are likely over for the church, which is probably a good thing because it's more sustainable. Bottom line is that there will always be converts and those who leave.

 

5 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

I don't follow RFM...but I agree with your assertion...there is confirmation bias on both sides of the argument.

Confirmation Bias. It’s difficult to avoid, and much harder to see in oneself than it is to see in others. But it is a thing, and we need to try hard to look for it in ourselves and our own belief system. It’s almost the first question we need to ask - “Am I suffering from confirmation bias?”. Moroni’s Promise is a great example of how or where Confirmation Bias can come into play. LDS take Mormoni’s promise to mean the LDS Church is ‘true’. FLDS likewise believe it means the FLDS is ‘true’. Are both correct, or is confirmation bias in play?

Edited September 7, 2017 by Marginal Gains

[Johnnie Cake]

20 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

Earnest question but how so? We have a poll with a much higher figure than either ARIS or Pew, but on the edge of the error bound. It's not clear how representative the poll is. ARIS seems to be the gold standard for a slew of reasons. Pew has problems particularly on more detailed questions about particular religious belief/behavior.  This one is a new one and it's not entirely clear how to take it or how much to trust it.

It seems to me that most of the comments have been pretty insightful nitpicking. I learned a lot I'd missed both here and at T&S.

Wouldn't it be nice if the church merely released its meeting attendance numbers, but that would go against the image that the church wants to promote...that the church is 16 million strong?  The best source to judge the number of active member participation in the church is the number of wards and stakes.  The church only spends money for buildings where there is an actual need and sells off those buildings when that need evaporates...as the saying goes...follow the money

Edited September 7, 2017 by Johnnie Cake

[Okrahomer]

12 minutes ago, Marginal Gains said:

Yeah, we are talking about (more or less) the same thing. But feel free to keep berating me! 😀

Ha!  Well, please feel free to beat me back.

[Marginal Gains]

2 minutes ago, Okrahomer said:

Ha!  Well, please feel free to beat me back.

Slip up once, just once....grrrrrr

[clarkgoble]

39 minutes ago, Johnnie Cake said:

Wouldn't it be nice if the church merely released its meeting attendance numbers, but that would go against the image that the church wants to promote...that the church is 16 million strong?  The best source to judge the number of active member participation in the church is the number of wards and stakes.  The church only spends money for buildings where there is an actual need and sells off those buildings when that need evaporates...as the saying goes...follow the money

I think meeting attendance numbers are misleading as a figure - even more misleading than membership records are. The real issue is self-identification. For instance for various reasons of kids health I miss a reasonable number of meetings. I hate to say it but probably at least 10% and maybe higher. Yet I consider myself extremely active. Also people are on vacation or so forth. Attendance will vary substantially by time. For instance our ward is quite transitory and numbers fluctuate a great deal. In third world countries such figures are also harder to get accurately and even more misleading. I can completely understand why the Church doesn't release them.

44 minutes ago, Marginal Gains said:

Confirmation Bias. It’s difficult to avoid, and much harder to see in oneself than it is to see in others. But it is a thing, and we need to try hard to look for it in ourselves and our own belief system. It’s almost the first question we need to ask - “Am I suffering from confirmation bias?”. Moroni’s Promise is a great example of how or where Confirmation Bias can come into play. LDS take Mormoni’s promise to mean the LDS Church is ‘true’. FLDS likewise believe it means the FLDS is ‘true’. Are both correct, or is confirmation bias in play?

I confess I don't see how confirmation bias relates to answers to prayer about the Book of Mormon. Typically people aren't only praying about the Book of Mormon but also whether the Church is true. Confirmation bias also is about just looking for confirmation of ones pre-existing beliefs. Now for people raised in the Church that might affect Moroni's promise. But for those investigating it isn't. 

The bigger issue of confirmation bias would be the typical member reading things that promote Book of Mormon accuracy (say things Joseph would be unlikely to know) while ignoring evidence against it. That's certainly common and I don't want to say there's no confirmation bias going on. Just that Moroni's promise seems an odd place to look.

49 minutes ago, Okrahomer said:

For what it's worth, I spoke with one of statisticians at PEW a few years ago.  In fact, he called me in response to an e-mail I sent to PEW.  There had been some criticism of PEW's data about Mormons here on this board.  The main complaint was that PEW was guilty of over-sampling Utah.  The PEW researcher I spoke with acknowledged that over-sampling had in fact been a problem about a decade earlier; however, he was confident now that they had corrected it in all their later sampling. 

He also made a very interesting comment when I asked him about the differences between ARIS survey results vs. PEW.  He pointed out to me that ARIS asks a single question about religious self-identification.   There is no follow-up.  He felt this skewed their data toward generic categories like "Christian".  PEW and PRRI on the other hand ask a follow-up question when generic answers are given which pushes interviewees to provide a more detailed answer.  This fellow told me he was certain that the ARIS figures were therefore somewhat understated.

That's really interesting. I'd love to talk to someone doing the survey to get their take on frankly non-sensical responses for things like tithe paying. It really makes me distrust the Pew stuff. Part of that might be the traditional problem of people saying what they think they should be doing rather than what they are actually doing. Yet it's so glaring in Pew in weird ways that I've always been careful with Pew.

To the Pew vs. ARIS though while that may well affect other religions, I can't see how that affects Mormon self-identification. There's been a long standing difference of around 0.2% between the two studies though. While that's well within error range (+/- 0.5%), the stability of the difference makes me think something else is going on.

[clarkgoble]

1 hour ago, jkwilliams said:

Most likely. I'm sure you've seen, as I have, the gleeful RfM posts in which exmos salivate over the church's imminent collapse. It's not going to happen. But at the same time, the days of crazy growth are likely over for the church, which is probably a good thing because it's more sustainable. Bottom line is that there will always be converts and those who leave.

I think this is right. The high growth rate of the 60's through early 90's weren't sustainable for a slew of reasons. That said, I think we're significantly underperforming in growth relative to potential due to how we haven't adjusted to the cultural differences in Asia.

[Okrahomer]

57 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

That's really interesting. I'd love to talk to someone doing the survey to get their take on frankly non-sensical responses for things like tithe paying. It really makes me distrust the Pew stuff. Part of that might be the traditional problem of people saying what they think they should be doing rather than what they are actually doing. Yet it's so glaring in Pew in weird ways that I've always been careful with Pew.

To the Pew vs. ARIS though while that may well affect other religions, I can't see how that affects Mormon self-identification. There's been a long standing difference of around 0.2% between the two studies though. While that's well within error range (+/- 0.5%), the stability of the difference makes me think something else is going on.

I sent the e-mail thinking they would respond by e-mail.  I was shocked when someone actually called me.  I'll wager you'd get the same generous and open sort of response.

I see what you mean about the Pew vs ARIS results.  I think at the time of my call (maybe around 2011) the difference was a bit larger.  If memory serves, the latest ARIS figure was 1.3% vs. 1.7% for Pew.

[Nofear]

I am personally much less interested in the fraction of the US population that is Mormon than a lot of other things (e.g. education, decreased uniformity in political party identification, age, etc.). Overall, to me, the statistics paint a rather flattering portrait.

[Marginal Gains]

3 hours ago, Marginal Gains said:

 

Confirmation Bias. It’s difficult to avoid, and much harder to see in oneself than it is to see in others. But it is a thing, and we need to try hard to look for it in ourselves and our own belief system. It’s almost the first question we need to ask - “Am I suffering from confirmation bias?”. Moroni’s Promise is a great example of how or where Confirmation Bias can come into play. LDS take Mormoni’s promise to mean the LDS Church is ‘true’. FLDS likewise believe it means the FLDS is ‘true’. Are both correct, or is confirmation bias in play?

 

3 hours ago, clarkgoble said:

I confess I don't see how confirmation bias relates to answers to prayer about the Book of Mormon. Typically people aren't only praying about the Book of Mormon but also whether the Church is true. Confirmation bias also is about just looking for confirmation of ones pre-existing beliefs. Now for people raised in the Church that might affect Moroni's promise. But for those investigating it isn't. 

You really cannot see how confirmation bias relates to answers to prayers about the Book of Mormon by investigators? Really? I’m shocked.

The best investigators are those who are already looking for something. Scenario - Missionaries turn up and introduce them to the Book of Mormon. This is it! They pray and get a great feeling.

You still cannot see how that might be confirmation bias at play?

[jkwilliams]

4 hours ago, Johnnie Cake said:

I don't follow RFM...but I agree with your assertion...there is confirmation bias on both sides of the argument.

I don't either, but when I was there, you would see periodic posts about how the church is GOING DOWN!!!! Always made me chuckle. Hope all is well with you. 

[Marginal Gains]

Quote

 

Riess did question the finding that the LDS Church’s percentage of the population is the same — about 2 percent — as it has been in the past.

The survey asserts that “Mormonism has so far been immune to the current decline of Christianity in America,” she said. “As much as I would love to believe that Mormonism has nothing to fear, that is not what some of the other studies have been finding.”

 

http://www.sltrib.com/religion/local/2017/09/07/mormons-are-still-younger-and-more-conservative-than-other-believers-but-theyre-having-fewer-kids-and-getting-less-republican/

[clarkgoble]

32 minutes ago, Marginal Gains said:

You really cannot see how confirmation bias relates to answers to prayers about the Book of Mormon by investigators? Really? I’m shocked.

The best investigators are those who are already looking for something. Scenario - Missionaries turn up and introduce them to the Book of Mormon. This is it! They pray and get a great feeling.

You still cannot see how that might be confirmation bias at play?

I'm not sure I'd call that confirmation bias. Confirmation bias would be if they already had a belief in an apostasy and restoration and then the missionaries show up. "Looking for something" is so vague I'm not sure I'd call it CB. That's not to say it wouldn't have an effect just that semantically I'd pick a different term.

[Johnnie Cake]

41 minutes ago, jkwilliams said:

I don't either, but when I was there, you would see periodic posts about how the church is GOING DOWN!!!! Always made me chuckle. Hope all is well with you. 

All is good...and I share your point of view on the demise of the church...not going to happen any time soon, if ever.  Sorry to hear  about the damage Harvey inflicted on your daughters home in Houston.  That's a hard one to recover from... 

[jkwilliams]

Just now, Johnnie Cake said:

All is good...and I share your point of view on the demise of the church...not going to happen any time soon, if ever.  Sorry to hear  about the damage Harvey inflicted on your daughters home in Houston.  That's a hard one to recover from... 

They came out better than a lot of people, but it will be a while before they can get back into their home again. Just happy they're all safe.

[Jeanne]

8 minutes ago, jkwilliams said:

They came out better than a lot of people, but it will be a while before they can get back into their home again. Just happy they're all safe.

Me too!  Here is hoping that the future will be bright and the realization that what is truly important...shines big hope on the family...all of you!

[jkwilliams]

3 minutes ago, Jeanne said:

Me too!  Here is hoping that the future will be bright and the realization that what is truly important...shines big hope on the family...all of you!

Thank you. They will be OK, and yes, it's all been a reminder of what is important.

[Calm]

4 hours ago, clarkgoble said:

That's really interesting. I'd love to talk to someone doing the survey to get their take on frankly non-sensical responses for things like tithe paying. It really makes me distrust the Pew stuff. Part of that might be the traditional problem of people saying what they think they should be doing rather than what they are actually doing. Yet it's so glaring in Pew in weird ways that I've always been careful with Pew.

I would love to know how they got their results for Mormons believing in reincarnation awhile back.  Way too high.

If they asked "do you believe you lived before this life", that could be easily misinterpreted.

Edited September 7, 2017 by Calm