Mormons Growing in America?

[Scott Lloyd]

On 9/6/2017 at 9:11 AM, clarkgoble said:

There's a new PRRI poll out regarding American religion. I did a post over at T&S you might find interesting on it.

The biggest surprise, although it was downplayed in the text of the study, was the significantly larger number of Mormons it found. It's always dangerous comparing two different surveys so it's not clear what to read into this. However they made numerous comparisons to Pew studies throughout so it's worth noting they got 1.9% of Americans being Mormon. That's much higher than Pew's last study which had us at 1.6%. It's so much bigger that it's hard not to thing this is significant.

Note how this goes against the expectation especially of Mormon critics regarding our growth.

 

On 9/6/2017 at 9:16 AM, Avatar4321 said:

That would be more in tune with what the apostles were saying about us never being stronger.

 

Of course, growth rate and raw membership numbers are not the sole indicators of the strength of the Church.

I believe that more reliable metrics would measure the faith, loyalty, commitment and spirituality of those who already are members. These would be such indicators as temple attendance and the associated proliferation of temples, Church meeting attendance, enrollment in seminary or institute, willingness to serve missions or fulfill other Church callings, faithfulness in the payment of tithes and offerings, engagement in family history work, readiness to help the poor and needy both internally and externally, etc.

I recall it was Elder Quentin L. Cook who said in general conference that the Church has never been stronger. I haven't reviewed his remark in a while, but my memory is that he spoke in terms of such indicators.

[Scott Lloyd]

On 9/6/2017 at 9:20 AM, Marginal Gains said:

From the study:

Although Mormons are a predominantly white Christian religious tradition, there is little evidence to suggest that they are experiencing similar declines.13 Currently, 1.9% of the public identifies as Mormon, a number identical to findings from a 2011 study of Mormons in the U.S.14

Mormons are also much younger than other white Christian religious traditions. Nearly one-quarter (23%) of Mormons are under the age of 30. Fewer than half (41%) are age 50 or older.

I’m not sure having the same proportion as was seen in 2011 counts as being “so much bigger” or “significant”. The conclusion would be that Mormons as a proportion of American society has remained at 1.9%. The positive is that Mormons aren’t seeing a similar decline as others. 

It’s also worth noting the study doesn’t, as far as I can tell, differentiate between the Mormon sects, but rather lumps them all as “Mormon”, nor does it take the temperature of activity levels. This is a survey of how people self identify.

 

The other thing worth noting is that 1.9% of the American population - 323 million as at 2016 (the date for the study), would be a little over 6 million.

Whereas the Church claims nearly 9.2 million members in America as at the end of 2016.

How do we explain the discrepancy that the Church is posting 50% more membership (3 million more members) than the study revealed?

Where are you getting your baseline for the American population? Is it based on census figures? The last census would have been taken in 2010.

 

[clarkgoble]

12 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Of course, growth rate and raw membership numbers are not the sole indicators of the strength of the Church.

I believe that more reliable metrics would measure the faith, loyalty, commitment and spirituality of those who already are members. These would be such indicators as temple attendance and the associated proliferation of temples, Church meeting attendance, enrollment in seminary or institute, willingness to serve missions or fulfill other Church callings, faithfulness in the payment of tithes and offerings, engagement in family history work, readiness to help the poor and needy both internally and externally, etc.

I recall it was Elder Quentin L. Cook who said in general conference that the Church has never been stronger. I haven't reviewed his remark in a while, but my memory is that he spoke in terms of such indicators.

I think this is true. It does seem like people understand doctrine better and are more active in their behaviors than in say the period before the 1970's. I can't speak to tithe paying as I don't think there's public data on that. But certainly the expectations have changed quite a bit since the 19th century. That's not to say what was asked in the 19th century was easy. I'm glad I didn't have to live then. However the commitment level of self-identified Mormons is extremely high according to the more detailed Pew study. (Too high in my opinion - although that's a different issue of what I'm somewhat skeptical of their numbers)

[Scott Lloyd]

On 9/7/2017 at 0:33 AM, Robert F. Smith said:

So they are including FLDS polygamists and the Community of Christ (RLDS) and other splinter groups in the total?

 

On 9/7/2017 at 0:43 AM, clarkgoble said:

Yup - but the numbers aren't big enough to change the total.

Community of Christ members do not self-identify by the name "Mormon."

[Scott Lloyd]

17 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

I think this is true. It does seem like people understand doctrine better and are more active in their behaviors than in say the period before the 1970's. I can't speak to tithe paying as I don't think there's public data on that. But certainly the expectations have changed quite a bit since the 19th century. That's not to say what was asked in the 19th century was easy. I'm glad I didn't have to live then. However the commitment level of self-identified Mormons is extremely high according to the more detailed Pew study. (Too high in my opinion - although that's a different issue of what I'm somewhat skeptical of their numbers)

Creation of new stakes would be another measure of internal strength, as a stake creation is based on the participation and commitment level of the Church membership in a given area.

[Robert F. Smith]

8 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Community of Christ members do not self-identify by the name "Mormon."

True, but the pollsters may seem them as a "Mormon" splinter group.

Edited September 9, 2017 by Robert F. Smith

[jkwilliams]

Just now, Robert F. Smith said:

True, but the pollsters may seem them as s "Mormon" splinter group.

Depends on how the question was asked, answered, and interpreted.

[Calm]

1 hour ago, Robert F. Smith said:

True, but the pollsters may seem them as s "Mormon" splinter group.

Wasn't it a self identification poll though?

[Scott Lloyd]

4 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

True, but the pollsters may seem them as s "Mormon" splinter group.

Perhaps. But I thought this was a poll asking people how they self-identify religiously.

 

[Robert F. Smith]

4 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Perhaps. But I thought this was a poll asking people how they self-identify religiously.

I was responding to clarkgoble's claim that "Someone at T&S noted that Pew did break out LDS and non-LDS Mormon. The former was 1.6% and the later was <0.3% so that may be where the 1.9% is coming from."  Depending on how the questions were formulated, that could very well include RLDS/Community of Christ.  We would need more info to determine that.

[Marginal Gains]

16 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Where are you getting your baseline for the American population? Is it based on census figures? The last census would have been taken in 2010.

 

I simply googled “American population” and up pops a graph showing the population at 323 million at 2016.

There is a note to it stating “Sources include: United States Census Bureau, World Bank”

Edited September 9, 2017 by Marginal Gains