L D S Membership Numbers

[CASteinman]

I disagree but of course it's a possibility.

Well, we just don't know.

Sometimes we use the data we have and make what we believe to be a good guess.

I agree it is a guess. As to whether it is a good one, I am not so much in agreement. I am guessing Policy. Again.

But we just don't know.

[Analytics]

In addition to tracking how specific geographical locations change over time, we can compare different geographical locations. For example, one specific country I'm thinking of has an average of 389 members per congregation. Another specific country has an average of 893 members per congregation. One of these countries has an average activity rate of about 20%, and the other has an average activity rate of about 40%.

It shouldn't be that hard to guess which one is which—it should be intuitive to people familiar with Mormon congregations that the average attendance of all congregations in a country isn't going to be 357 active members per congregation (40% of 893).

It turns out that Australia, the country with 389 members per congregation, has an activity rate of about 40%. Chile, the country with 893 members per congregation, has an activity rate of 20%.

These activity rates are estimates of David Stewart who says,

While no regular reports of LDS activity rates are published, activity rate ranges for each country are based on the following published references, as well as from numerous inquiries to members, and returned missionaries, and mission homes in various areas.

"Attendance at sacrament meeting varies substantially. Asia and Latin America have weekly attendance rates of about 25 percent, Europe averages about 35 percent" (Encyclopedia of Mormonism, edited by Daniel H. Ludlow, 1992, 4:1527.)

"Canada, the South Pacific, and the United States average between 40 percent and 50 percent." (Encyclopedia of Mormonism, edited by Daniel H. Ludlow, 1992, 4:1527.)

As noted above, activity (almost 10 years ago) was as high as 35% in some areas. Recently I've received a personal correspondance from an LDS professor who has done a study in major cities of Western Europe (I have not received permission to cite his name, although the data was presented at the Mormon History Association conference in Copenhagen in June 2000). He found 20-30% activity rates in most of the major European cities he visited.

We have collected considerable recent activity rate data from missions, recently returned missionaries, and local members in many countries. However, as no official activity rates have been published for a number of years, listed activity rates should be considered to be well-researched estimates based on a variety of sources, and not as official church statistics. As such, activity rate estimates for individual countries may have some error (generally within 5%), but are likely to be very close to the real numbers. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of listed figures. If you have additional data, please submit it for consideration on the respective country pages.

If you take the 20 countries with the largest LDS populations, the members/congregation is a statistically significant predictor of the activity rate.

Over short periods, of course existing congregations can absorb new members. But as the members/congregation of an entire country continues to grow over several years, there are really only two broad categories of explanations:

1- Activity rates remain constant and the church is transforming to a large-ward model (and eventually to a mega-ward model), where the target number of active members per congregation is continuously increasing.

2- Activity rates are decreasing so that on average, the number of active members per-congregation is in a constant range.

Edited May 16, 2012 by Analytics

[Thinking]

I happened to be in California with some family over the weekend in the neighborhood where we grew up and attended Sacrament Meeting with them in our old ward. The ward is actually a consolidation of three wards that existed when I was a teenager. There were 106 people in attendance.

Of course this is a sample size of one, but I found it interesting.

[thesometimesaint]

Thinking:

I've been in the same Ward building for 22 years, and have changed Wards once without moving . So I've watched kids grow up(and myself grow old), and leave home. Some return to the same Ward. There are now two Stakes where there was only one. In the next few years I expect to see three.

[T-Shirt]

I happened to be in California with some family over the weekend in the neighborhood where we grew up and attended Sacrament Meeting with them in our old ward. The ward is actually a consolidation of three wards that existed when I was a teenager. There were 106 people in attendance.

Of course this is a sample size of one, but I found it interesting.

This often has more to do with demographics than it does with growth or retention. The ward I grew up in has been consolidated as well. However, the area to the north has exploded over the last three decades. Many wards and stakes have been created. The cause is simple, as populations grow, the wards closer to the big city (in this case, Seattle) struggle to maintain growth, largely because of economics. The areas closer to the city are no longer conducive to families. Populations are getting older and home prices are too high. The areas to the north of Seattle have experienced a boom in new development with more affordable housing and younger populations, consequently, my old ward has shrunk, significantly, but other areas have expanded even more significantly. Edited June 25, 2012 by T-Shirt

[Whiskeypete]

Due to some creative redistricting about 8 years ago, none of the high schools in our ward boundaries are considered "desirable" Since that time we have had very few families with school age children move in. It used to be that families moving out would be offset over time by families moving in, but no longer.

So our ward is very quickly becoming an empty nesters ward.

[rodheadlee]

Then you have members like us, our paperwork is in Annapolis but we haven't been there since November 2011. We have ben to Hampton, New Bern, Key West, Cocoa Village, Marathon etc. We are not the only families doing this.

[Calm]

Our ward up in Canada had the married student living quarters from the university included in it. We were there for 13 years and at the beginning there was a pretty good mix of older, middle and younger families. Toward the end there was a greater divide though a lot of the oldest were beginning to die and I've heard of many more since we left have passed on, just got so much more house if one moved further out from the city center. I wouldn't be surprised if now there was a much bigger gap as the doubling in value wave that was radiating out from the center of the city was just about to hit our neighbourhood when we moved (if only it had hit a year earlier we would have made much better money on our house).

They redid boundaries once while we were there and again after we left. Overall, a lot of growth in the area (probably even more now that there is a temple in the extended neighbourhood).

Edited June 26, 2012 by calmoriah