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Alf O'Mega Statistical Report Predictions?


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Posted

I haven't missed the point.  And yes they are indeed offended at the thought which I remind them of often.  However, they're not the point at all.  It's all about having an alternate voice for the Church and for those who are lurking from whom I get positive communication from time to time.

As one who had been on that board for a long time, I don't believe I've received any positive communication from lurkers. Perhaps I was far more influenced by the denizens of that board than they were by me. If Will is right I wonder how long it will be before one will, "recover from the deleterious effects of wandering the mean streets and shadowed alleys of the great and spacious trailer park."
Posted (edited)

Anyway, here's the 2011 stats-

The First Presidency has issued the following statistical report of the Church as of Dec. 31, 2011.

CHURCH UNITS

Stakes — 2,946

Missions — 340

Districts— 608

Wards and branches — 28,784

CHURCH MEMBERSHIP

Total membership. — 14,441,346

New children of record — 119,917

Converts baptized — 281,312

MISSIONARIES

Full-time missionaries — 55,410

Church-service missionaries — 22,299

Edited by CQUIRK
Posted (edited)

On March 27 last year, Alf O' Mega said:

I haven't posted here in months, mainly due to competition from real life. Still, I had intended to post my annual "Handicapping the Statistical Report" here, but when I couldn't find any of the previous years' installments in this board's hollow apology for an archive, I decided to take it elsewhere. You'll find the seventh annual running of the numbers in the Celestial Forum on another Mormon-themed discussion board.
Edited by cinepro
Posted (edited)

Here's last year's stats:

The First Presidency has issued the following statistical report of the Church for 2010.

As of December 31, 2010, there were:

2,896 stakes

340 missions

614 districts

28,660 wards and branches.

Total membership of the Church at the end of 2010 was 14,131,467.

There were 120,528 new children of record in the Church, and 272,814 converts were baptized in 2010.

The number of full-time missionaries serving at the end of the year was 52,225.

Edited by cinepro
Posted

Almost all the numbers save the children of record have gone up. So there is still some good stuff going on. I'll take that over all the churches going bankrupt and having to sell off their properties.

JMS

Posted (edited)

Good news. Alf has posted this year's number at another forum. No graphs though.

So let's see how I did this year.

Stakes

2011 projection: 2,936

2011 prediction: 2,930

2011 actual: 2,946

Stakes actually had their strongest growth since 1998 (1.73%), so the projection was low and I was even lower. 0 for 1.

Missions

2011 projection: 341

2011 prediction: 338

2011 actual: 340

The projection was for an increase, I predicted a decrease, and the actual result was no change. Since the projection was closer, that's 0 for 2.

Districts

2011 projection: 610

2011 prediction: 613

2011 actual: 608

I guessed the projection would be low, but it was actually high, and my prediction was even higher. 0 for 3.

Wards and Branches

2011 projection: 28,989

2011 prediction: 28,948

2011 actual: 28,784

Wards continued their slowing growth, and my prediction was below the projection, so I guess that's a win? 1 for 4.

Total Membership

2011 projection (linear): 14,452,460

2011 projection (parabolic): 14,440,817

2011 projection (exponential): 14,479,425

2011 prediction: 14,451,923

2011 actual: 14,441,346

I said that the linear would be closer than the exponential, and so it was. But the parabolic projection was closer than either. Since my prediction was closer than two of the three projections, I call it 2 for 5.

New Children of Record

2011 projection: 118,277

2011 prediction: 119,545

2011 actual: 119,917

I said that the projection would be low, and it was. 3 for 6.

Converts Baptized

2011 projection: 274,636

2011 prediction: 270,228

2011 actual: 281,312

The projection said up, and I should have too. 3 for 7.

Full-time Missionaries

2011 projection: 51,613

2011 prediction: 51,816

2011 actual: 55,410

http://forum.neworde...ic.php?t=25923.

Edited by cinepro
  • 4 weeks later...
Posted

After subtracting for attrition (had to eyeball some of AOM's charts), we seem to be growing at around 190,000 (1.3%) per year in 2010.

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