Utah is no longer majority Mormon (new research)

[sunstoned]

This was just reported on channel 4 news. 
 

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A paper published this month in the Journal of Religion and Demography estimates that the percentage of Utahns who identify as members of the LDS church, otherwise known as Mormons, is about 42%.

 

 

 

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That’s markedly lower than previous media reports citing the church’s numbers, which put the percentage of Mormons in Utah at around 60% as recently as 2020.

The paper goes into some detail on the reasons for this trend.  It is an interesting article.

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The paper lists three main reasons why it’s likely Utah is no longer majority Mormon. Chief among them is migration, as people from other states (particularly California) have moved to Utah in great numbers over the last few decades. Most of these people are not Mormon.

The second major trend is secularization, as evidenced by the proliferation of coffee shops and breweries in Utah. In the late 1980s, LDS members would retain 95% of their children in the church, Cragun said. Today, that figure is now around 67%.

“Almost a third of people who are raised LDS today leave the religion,” he said. “That’s our current best estimate.”

 

 

https://www.abc4.com/news/wasatch-front/utah-is-no-longer-majority-mormon-new-research-says/

[Pyreaux]

Last year's news. But to keep the thread alive, anyone have any data, including local census data or surveys from institutions like the University of Utah's Hinckley Institute of Politics or Pew Research? My knowledge cutoff date was in October 2023, and the claim might be a bit misleading. Here are some key factors to consider:

The "Majority" Population of Utah

Latter-day Saints have historically made up a significant majority of Utah's population. Historically, they represented around 60-70% of the state's population.

Reports have suggested that the percentage of Utahns who identify as active or nominal members of the LDS Church may be declining. However, whether this means Utah is no longer a majority LDS state depends on how "majority" is defined. For example, some surveys might count only those who are active in the church, while others might include everyone who self-identifies as a member of the LDS Church, whether active or inactive.

Trends and Studies (2023)

A 2023 report by the Deseret News based on research from sources like the Pew Research Center and independent demographic studies suggests that Utah is shifting. The article you linked might have pointed to data that shows a reduction in the percentage of Utahns identifying as LDS (to possibly under 50% in some surveys or estimates). However, some demographic reports still estimate that LDS Church members (including both active and inactive members) likely make up around 50-60% of the population, depending on how surveys are conducted.

According to the 2022 Pew Research report, approximately 60% of Utahns identified as members of the LDS Church, which still positions LDS as a majority in terms of self-reported religious affiliation.

While it's possible that some surveys or studies have shown that LDS membership has fallen below 50% in certain segments of the population, the overall percentage of Utahns who identify as LDS (including both active and inactive members) may still be above 50%, at least in 2023.

The Pew Research and Gallup surveys may offer slightly different findings, especially in terms of how they count LDS members, inactive members, and people who might culturally identify with the LDS faith but not attend church regularly.
Additionally, certain studies might focus on specific demographics (such as those under 18 or in urban versus rural areas), which could further skew the interpretation of the "majority" claim.

 

Edited November 13, 2024 by Pyreaux

[bluebell]

Interesting.  We just moved from Layton and the majority of the people in our neighborhood were non-members.  We were only a couple of blocks east of Hill Air Force base so I assumed it had something to do with that.  

[Tacenda]

On 11/13/2024 at 8:19 AM, bluebell said:

Interesting.  We just moved from Layton and the majority of the people in our neighborhood were non-members.  We were only a couple of blocks east of Hill Air Force base so I assumed it had something to do with that.  

I hope you like the new neighborhood bluebell. Or that all goes well, moves are pretty unpredictable since you don't know your neighbors yet.