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Global Cooling Is The Trend.


Zakuska

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All though the blog is highly political in Nature. The particular story I am siting has to do with tree ring data that some in LDS circles might find intresting. This may also have implications for New world Archeology and modern science as well.

July 17, 2012, 2:38 pm

Filed under: Global Warming, Junk Science, Media Bias, Science/Technology | Tags: 2000 Year Climate Reconstruction, Johannes Gutenberg University, Sub-Fossil Tree Ring Density

An international team including scientists from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) has published a reconstruction of the climate in northern Europe over the last 2,000 years based on the information provided by density measurements of sub-fossil pine trees originating from Finnish Lapland. Professor Dr. Jan Esper’s group at the Institute of Geography at JGU’s measurements produce a reconstruction reaching back to 138 BC.

In these reconstructions, the researchers have been able, for the first time, to precisely demonstrate that the long-term trend over the past two millennia has been towards climatic cooling. “We found that previous estimates of historical temperatures during the Roman era and the Middle Ages were too low,” said Professor Dr. Jan Esper. “Such findings are also significant with regard to climate policy, as they will influence the way today’s climate changes are seen in context of historical warm periods.” The new study has been published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Was the climate during the Roman era and Medieval times warmer than today? A study suggests that the Britain of 2000 years ago experienced a lengthy period of hotter summers than today. We have records in literature of grapes growing in northern England. These are the questions that the discipline of paleoclimatology tries to answer.

Why are earlier warm periods important when what we are interested in today is current global climate changes? Thermometer records are recent. Scientists analyze indirect evidence of climate variability, such as ice cores and ocean sediments, and so reconstruct the climate of the past. The annual growth rings in trees are the best witnesses we have over the past 1,000 to 2,000 years as they indicate how warm and how cool past climate conditions were.

In the cold environment of the Nordic taiga in Finnish Lapland, trees often collapse into one of the numerous lakes, where they remain well-preserved for thousands of years. The density measurements correlate closely with the summer temperatures in this cold area. Researchers were able to create a temperature reconstruction of unprecedented quality. It provides a high-resolution representation of temperature patterns in the Roman and Medieval Warm periods and also show the cold phases that occurred during the Migration Period and the later Little Ice Age.

The new climate curve exhibited an unexpected phenomenon in this form. For the first time, researchers were able to use the tree-ring data to calculate precisely a much longer-term cooling trend that has been playing out over the past 2000 years. This trend involved a cooling of -0.3° per millennium due to gradual changes to the position of the sun and an increase in the distance between the Earth and the sun.

Dr. Esper said “This figure we calculate may not seem particularly significant. However, it is also not negligible when compared to global warming, which up to now has been less than 1°C. Our results suggest that the large-scale climate reconstruction shown by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) likely underestimate this long-term cooling trend over the past few millennia.” (click to enlarge)

The Article:

http://americaneleph...ew-discoveries/

A graph showing the cooling trend over the past 2000 years.

http://americaneleph...pe_climate1.jpg

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If this is the one I am thinking of, the people claiming it shows a cooling trend are misinterpreting the data.

add-on: unfortunately I cannot find the article I was reading on it a few days ago.

At this point all I would suggest is to use caution in assuming what exactly this study means.

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If this is the one I am thinking of, the people claiming it shows a cooling trend are misinterpreting the data.

Warming or cooling it is the result of cycles. We have not been recording this kind of data long enough to predict the kind of disaster these people are predicting.

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I have a geologist friend who laughs each time the latest study comes out based on a hundred or a thousand years or so. He tends to draw conclusions using a much longer time scale.

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I have a geologist friend who laughs each time the latest study comes out based on a hundred or a thousand years or so. He tends to draw conclusions using a much longer time scale.

What isn't trying to get to the public trough?

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During the 1970's The mantra was that we were entering another ice age. Why can't the make up their mind. I don't know whether to get out my long-johns or my Bermudas.

No, Zakuska's citation is correct. The dendroclimatic indicators do not lie. We have been in a cooling trend now for millennia. The problem is us humans.

In the last 250 years, human use of coal and other greenhouse gas producing materials has caused a reversal in that cooling trend. So instead of heading for a new ice age, our global surface temp has risen 1.5 degrees celsius. Global sea level in increasing as the ice melts virtually everywhere. See http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/120730142509.htm .

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What is evident is that there has never been a time of a static climate condition. The fact that our climate is changing is not new; the fact that humans have an impact is not surprising, nor is it alarming. It is just a fact. The issue is if the climate change is negative? When I can't get a correct projection of tomorrow's weather, why should I believe a projection by the same people of what is going to happen in the future on something so complicated as today's weather?

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No, Zakuska's citation is correct. The dendroclimatic indicators do not lie. We have been in a cooling trend now for millennia. The problem is us humans.

In the last 250 years, human use of coal and other greenhouse gas producing materials has caused a reversal in that cooling trend. So instead of heading for a new ice age, our global surface temp has risen 1.5 degrees celsius. Global sea level in increasing as the ice melts virtually everywhere. See http://www.scienceda...20730142509.htm .

And if this heating trend continues, before long we will be able to grow grapes along the Greenland coast like they used to. But let's not wait that long to panic.

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No, Zakuska's citation is correct. The dendroclimatic indicators do not lie. We have been in a cooling trend now for millennia. The problem is us humans.

In the last 250 years, human use of coal and other greenhouse gas producing materials has caused a reversal in that cooling trend. So instead of heading for a new ice age, our global surface temp has risen 1.5 degrees celsius. Global sea level in increasing as the ice melts virtually everywhere. See http://www.scienceda...20730142509.htm .

Ice melts which causes less land, which causes less land animals making less methane and the earth cycles again and tthe Ice forms again. Proponents of global warming seem to miss the fact that tempatures are cyclical. And the data does not show humans are the cause of the warming.

If anything it would be the Industrial revolutuion, however if one looks at the data we had similar "spikes" at the time of Christ.

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Vance:

While not Greenland the UK due to Global Warming is now able to grow wine grapes.

So, we have a ways to go before we get back to where it was. But let's not let that keep us from panicking NOW!!!

AHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "THE SKY IS FALLING GLOBE IS WARMING" Chicken Little.

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Zakuska:

Incorrect. It is land ice than when it melts it decreases the land mass. Sea ice has no such effect. An ice cube melting in a glass of water mass does not raise the level of the water. Methane while it is an additional factor is not the only factor. CO2 sets up the initial warming which releases more methane from frozen sources amplifying the effect. Temperatures are cyclical but average temperature is rising faster than can be accounted for by non human sources. SEE B.E.S.T report.

http://berkeleyearth.org/results-summary/

http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Surface_Temps_final.pdf

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Zakuska:

Incorrect. It is land ice than when it melts it decreases the land mass. Sea ice has no such effect. An ice cube melting in a glass of water mass does not raise the level of the water. Methane while it is an additional factor is not the only factor. CO2 sets up the initial warming which releases more methane from frozen sources amplifying the effect. Temperatures are cyclical but average temperature is rising faster than can be accounted for by non human sources. SEE B.E.S.T report.

http://berkeleyearth...esults-summary/

http://dels.nas.edu/...Temps_final.pdf

The theory has been articulated for some time now but the unassailable evidence does not seem to be bursting forth. This has led to more than one attempt to "fudge" the evidence. The good science (as I read it ) just does not back up man caused global warming.

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Greenland was downright balmy when Eric and his son Leif started selling farmsteads there . . .

Of course, the old farmsteads were reclaimed by the glaciers over many generations, most of the earliest ones now lying under a whole lot of glacial sand and, in some places still, ice.

The Vikings withdrew to the Southern coast for a while, but ultimately gave up.

Kind of like people will one day do in Provo . . . after a while it just gets too hard to keep defending the decision to build and maintain it.

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