Revisit Of Loomis'S Growth Predictions 10-Years Later

[Analytics]

Ten years ago, a commonly held view amongst apologists was that Rodney Stark was correct in his view that the church would continue to grow exponentially for the next 100 years, and possibly reach 280,000,000 members by 2080. I commented on ZLMB that if you took a closer look at the growth rates, the church's growth rate was obviously slowing down and that Rodney Stark's assertion that it would grow exponentially for several decades was highly unlikely. An apologist balked at my views, with a logical argument that amounted to an appeal to Stark as a noted authority.

I ended up writing a paper about church growth that I later presented at a meeting for the Association for the Sociology of Religion.

One of the ZLMB threads on the topic is archived here:

http://pacumenispage...ng#.T3hriHiLH0c

You can read the paper itself here:

http://www.lds4u.com/growth2/Index.htm

I marked on my calendar to review the predictions after 10 years data have come in, and here we are.

10 years ago, I predicted that the Dec 2011 statistical report would say there were 14,826,382 members. This compares to the 14,441,346 that was actually reported.

However, what I was more interested in was the rate of growth. I predicted that the rate of growth for 2011 would be 0.02168. The actual rate of growth was 0.02169.*

So far, not too bad.

Edited April 1, 2012 by Analytics

[ERayR]

Ten years ago, a commonly held view amongst apologists was that Rodney Stark was correct in his view that the church would continue to grow exponentially for the next 100 years, and possibly reach 280,000,000 members by 2080. I commented on ZLMB that if you took a closer look at the growth rates, the church's growth rate was obviously slowing down and that Rodney Stark's assertion that it would grow exponentially for several decades was highly unlikely. An apologist balked at my views, with a logical argument that amounted to an appeal to Stark as a noted authority.

I ended up writing a paper about church growth that I later presented at a meeting for the Association for the Sociology of Religion.

One of the ZLMB threads on the topic is archived here:

http://pacumenispage...ng#.T3hriHiLH0c

You can read the paper itself here:

http://www.lds4u.com/growth2/Index.htm

I marked on my calendar to review the predictions after 10 years data have come in, and here we are.

10 years ago, I predicted that the Dec 2011 statistical report would say there were 14,826,382 members. This compares to the 14,441,346 that was actually reported.

However, what I was more interested in was the rate of growth. I predicted that the rate of growth for 2011 would be 0.02168. The actual rate of growth was 0.02169.*

So far, not too bad.

Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back.

[Log]

Trend spotter spotted trend. *genuflects*

[Xander]

If these weren't documented predictions from the past, I'd say this was an April Fools joke.

I'm not surprised that you had more insight into this than the average apologist, but your figures approximate so closely to the actual numbers that this is nothing short of amazing.

Nice going Roger.

It pretty much corresponds to much of what I've been saying too. The Church's growth rate is dropping substantially. It is becoming more and more difficult to obtain the level of success it once enjoyed in the past. The biggest enemy of the Church is information, and in our age of information, it is just an uphill battle for them.

The number of missions is actually dropping, and the number of converts per missionary has dropped substantially since the early 90's. The number of missionaries in the mission field has dropped since the mid-90's and has since leveled off (despite claimed increases in overall membership) because of the increasing levels of inactivity among Mormon teens. The only area where the Church is really growing is in the "children of record" department. These numbers are included in the overall membership count, and in 2002 I think the Church added something like 69,000 children of record, whereas the past two years that number has nearly doubled. I think it was 120,000 last year.

[Kenngo1969]

I don't have a testimony of Rodney Stark.

[Scott Lloyd]

Ten years ago, a commonly held view amongst apologists was that Rodney Stark was correct in his view that the church would continue to grow exponentially for the next 100 years, and possibly reach 280,000,000 members by 2080. I commented on ZLMB that if you took a closer look at the growth rates, the church's growth rate was obviously slowing down and that Rodney Stark's assertion that it would grow exponentially for several decades was highly unlikely. An apologist balked at my views, with a logical argument that amounted to an appeal to Stark as a noted authority.

I ended up writing a paper about church growth that I later presented at a meeting for the Association for the Sociology of Religion.

One of the ZLMB threads on the topic is archived here:

http://pacumenispage...ng#.T3hriHiLH0c

You can read the paper itself here:

http://www.lds4u.com/growth2/Index.htm

I marked on my calendar to review the predictions after 10 years data have come in, and here we are.

10 years ago, I predicted that the Dec 2011 statistical report would say there were 14,826,382 members. This compares to the 14,441,346 that was actually reported.

However, what I was more interested in was the rate of growth. I predicted that the rate of growth for 2011 would be 0.02168. The actual rate of growth was 0.02169.*

So far, not too bad.

In the 10 years since Roger made an issue of this, I think there has come about a greater recognition among us that global numerical dominance by the Church membership is not necessary for the fulfillment of prophecy.

In fact, that notion is contradicted by the vision of Nephi, who wrote:

And it came to pass that I beheld the church of the Lamb of God, and its numbers were few, because of the wickedness and abominations of the whore who sat upon many waters; nevertheless, I beheld that the church of the Lamb, who were the saints of God, were also upon all the face of the earth; and their dominions upon the face of the earth were small because of the wickedness of the great whore whom I saw. (1 Nephi 14:12)

Thus, Nephi saw in vision that the Church of Jesus Christ in latter days would have a global presence but be relatively small in numbers, the small numbers due to opposition from Satan and those who subject themselves to him — pretty much the state of things today.

So, while Rodney Stark's projections caused some sensation for a while, and while refutation of them has made for a rather absorbing hobby for Roger, the whole thing in the long run is of no great moment.

Edited April 1, 2012 by Scott Lloyd

[Scott Lloyd]

I don't have a testimony of Rodney Stark.

Rodney Stark is not a prophet. In fact, he's not even a Church member.

[Xander]

Rodney Stark is irrelevant to the point of this thread. Roger's predictions were dead on, and they clearly upset some apologists at the time. And there is no evidence that "Satan" has done anything to prevent the Church from converting more people. All evidence points to the fact that the more people know about the Church, the less likely they are to join it. You can blame that on Satan if that is what you need to do, but today people are more skeptical than they were twenty or fifty years ago. From buying a car, a house or even dog food, people have access to consumer reports and easily accessed testimonies from unsatisfied customers, which is going to provide the pros and cons of whatever it is you're thinking of buying. Choosing a religion is a much more serious decision for most people, and so they're going to take time out to investigate it beyond what the Church says. The Church would have people hear only its missionary presentation, which carefully ignores tons of controversial issues that would otherwise dissuade people from ever joining.

[Xander]

Rodney Stark is not a prophet. In fact, he's not even a Church member.

Apparently Roger Loomis is a prophet.

[KevinG]

Some of us apologetically inclined Saints have always understood that the church growth and growth rates (notice the distinction) would wax and wane on the way to spreading the gospel throughout the earth.

Nice job on the predictions. What is your estimate for the next decade?

[KevinG]

Apparently Roger Loomis is a prophet.

Or a statistician. Your gloating is noted.

[bluebell]

Ten years ago, a commonly held view amongst apologists was that Rodney Stark was correct in his view that the church would continue to grow exponentially for the next 100 years, and possibly reach 280,000,000 members by 2080. I commented on ZLMB that if you took a closer look at the growth rates, the church's growth rate was obviously slowing down and that Rodney Stark's assertion that it would grow exponentially for several decades was highly unlikely. An apologist balked at my views, with a logical argument that amounted to an appeal to Stark as a noted authority.

I ended up writing a paper about church growth that I later presented at a meeting for the Association for the Sociology of Religion.

One of the ZLMB threads on the topic is archived here:

http://pacumenispage...ng#.T3hriHiLH0c

You can read the paper itself here:

http://www.lds4u.com/growth2/Index.htm

I marked on my calendar to review the predictions after 10 years data have come in, and here we are.

10 years ago, I predicted that the Dec 2011 statistical report would say there were 14,826,382 members. This compares to the 14,441,346 that was actually reported.

However, what I was more interested in was the rate of growth. I predicted that the rate of growth for 2011 would be 0.02168. The actual rate of growth was 0.02169.*

So far, not too bad.

Not having ever even heard of Rodney Stark, and having no previous knowledge of the debate on church membership, i don't have a dog in this hunt. However, i had to say good job on getting the stats almost perfect. That shows a level of skill that is very impressive.

[Xander]

I predict the trend will continue downward and the Church will continue to shuffle the missions around in an attempt to compensate for this loss. Meaning, some areas of the world are easier to convert than others, however these are usually the same areas where activity rates are much lower. In reality, there are only around 4-6 million people on this planet who consider themselves LDS.

Edited April 1, 2012 by Xander

[KevinG]

I predicted that the rate of growth for 2011 would be 0.02168. The actual rate of growth was 0.02169.*

Uh oh! A few extra souls got past the truth squads. Better redouble your efforts Xander.

[Xander]

Uh oh! A few extra souls got past the truth squads. Better redouble your efforts Xander.

LOL! His prediction is far more impressive than anything Joseph Smith or any of his predecessors have said about the future.

[KevinG]

I predict the trend will continue downward and the Church will continue to shuffle the missions around in an attempt to compensate for this loss. Meaning, some areas of the world are easier to convert than others, however these are usually the same areas where activity rates are much lower.

You do know growth is increasing despite the growth rate. The" shuffling of missions" to get the most bang for our efforts has gone on since the inception of the church. It would be foolish to continue to send unprepared boys to areas where they are not as well received. Better preparation for fewer missionaries has been a more effective way of preaching the gospel to the world.

We may see steady growth while the rate slowly declines) or we may see spurts and halts as new areas are opened and other areas mature.

None of this is unexpected or a sign of anything other than normal life cycles of religious and social movements.

[KevinG]

LOL! His prediction is far more impressive than anything Joseph Smith or any of his predecessors have said about the future.

While you amuse yourself I'm still impressed that a prediction made in a room with a whole 6 church members has come true as millions now share the blessings of the Gospel of Jesus Christ.

I have seen phenomenal growth in my family and their progress in coming unto Christ during the last two decades. It is a marvelous thing to comprehend the value of each soul touched by the Gospel of Jesus Christ and comprehend that grace multiplied millions of times over. Keep gloating that the forest isn't spreading as fast as some may have thought, but the trees they are touching the sky!

[Scott Lloyd]

Not having ever even heard of Rodney Stark, and having no previous knowledge of the debate on church membership, i don't have a dog in this hunt. However, i had to say good job on getting the stats almost perfect. That shows a level of skill that is very impressive.

Rodney Stark is a non-Mormon sociologist who in about the 1980s or 1990s predicted that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints would become the next great world religion, this based on his own analysis of membership figures. Roger Loomis, a statistician, went to some lengths to refute Stark's predictions.

Thing is, I don't know of any serious "apologist' these days who contends that the verity, truth claims or divinity of the Church are dependent upon membership figures, growth rate or popularity. So that notion is a straw man argument anyway.

[bluebell]

So that notion is a straw man argument anyway.

I agree. I think that's obvious to most people.

Doctrine and truth claims aside, kudos to analytics for his mastery of statistics in this instance.

[LDSToronto]

Rodney Stark is a non-Mormon sociologist who in about the 1980s or 1990s predicted that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints would become the next great world religion, this based on his own analysis of membership figures. Roger Loomis, a statistician, went to some lengths to refute Stark's predictions.

Thing is, I don't know of any serious "apologist' these days who contends that the verity, truth claims or divinity of the Church are dependent upon membership figures, growth rate or popularity. So that notion is a straw man argument anyway.

And yet, how many times have we heard general authorities mention the LDS Church is, "14 million strong", or however-many-million strong? I agree, numbers don't signal truth, but they are important.

H.

[Xander]

You do know growth is increasing despite the growth rate.

So long as Mormon families continue to average 4+ kids and Mormon grandparents average 10+ grandchildren, the Church will always grow.

The" shuffling of missions" to get the most bang for our efforts has gone on since the inception of the church.

Uh, that's why I said it would "continue" to do so.

It would be foolish to continue to send unprepared boys to areas where they are not as well received.

Then the Church is foolish, since that is exactly what it does.You don't really think all 50,000 missionaries are in Utah do you?

Better preparation for fewer missionaries has been a more effective way of preaching the gospel to the world.

This is a bad excuse that doesn't hold water. You make it sound like the fewer number of missionaries is by design. The Church will produce as many MTCs as it feels necessary to accomodate the mission force. It would welcome 200,000 missionaries if there were that many wanting to serve. The thing is, there aren't that many wanting to.

We may see steady growth while the rate slowly declines) or we may see spurts and halts as new areas are opened and other areas mature.

You only see what the Church publishes once a year. The Church claims 14 million members which is absolutely absurd. It isn't even half that amount. If they were more honest, they'd say there are 14 million people they keep on file as members. Heck, I'm still a member according to the LDS Church. And so are most "apostates" on these forums.

None of this is unexpected or a sign of anything other than normal life cycles of religious and social movements.

And that rate of decrease most likely corresponds to a religion's inability to persuade critical thinking minds. It just so happens that people are far more inclined to join other religions like the Seventh-Day Adventists, and they're more inclined to stay active when they do. The LDS Church has always succeeded by being less than completely honest in its missionary efforts. Their ability to continue with this process has been hamstringed with the internet, which has become the Church's primary foe. It drives them nuts because they cannot control the internet. All they can do is try to overwhelm the search engines with apologetic fluff.

[Scott Lloyd]

While you amuse yourself I'm still impressed that a prediction made in a room with a whole 6 church members has come true as millions now share the blessings of the Gospel of Jesus Christ.

I have seen phenomenal growth in my family and their progress in coming unto Christ during the last two decades. It is a marvelous thing to comprehend the value of each soul touched by the Gospel of Jesus Christ and comprehend that grace multiplied millions of times over. Keep gloating that the forest isn't spreading as fast as some may have thought, but the trees they are touching the sky!

A really good indicator of what these days is being called "real growth" (the number of people who are making and keeping covenants) is the proliferation of temples in the Church. The number of temples has increased many times over just in my lifetime.

[LDSToronto]

You do know growth is increasing despite the growth rate. The" shuffling of missions" to get the most bang for our efforts has gone on since the inception of the church. It would be foolish to continue to send unprepared boys to areas where they are not as well received. Better preparation for fewer missionaries has been a more effective way of preaching the gospel to the world.

We may see steady growth while the rate slowly declines) or we may see spurts and halts as new areas are opened and other areas mature.

None of this is unexpected or a sign of anything other than normal life cycles of religious and social movements.

Organic growth is necessary for the church to grow significantly. Right now, inorganic growth is increasing (birth rate) while organic growth rate is decreasing (new baptisms).

H.

[Xander]

While you amuse yourself I'm still impressed that a prediction made in a room with a whole 6 church members has come true as millions now share the blessings of the Gospel of Jesus Christ.

I have seen phenomenal growth in my family and their progress in coming unto Christ during the last two decades. It is a marvelous thing to comprehend the value of each soul touched by the Gospel of Jesus Christ and comprehend that grace multiplied millions of times over. Keep gloating that the forest isn't spreading as fast as some may have thought, but the trees they are touching the sky!

(Sniffle)

How touching. And how much more impressive are other faiths like the SDA which have been far more successful.

Oh, and you forgot to say you say these things in the name of Jesus Christ, Amen!

[Scott Lloyd]

And yet, how many times have we heard general authorities mention the LDS Church is, "14 million strong", or however-many-million strong? I agree, numbers don't signal truth, but they are important.

H.

No one here has argued otherwise.