L D S Membership Numbers

[Thinking]

On June 22, 2009 I started a topic titled LDS Membership Numbers.

First I will list the M/C for the total church since 1999.

M = Members
C = Congregations

1999: 416.9 M/C (10,752,986/25,793)
2000: 427.1 M/C (11,068,861/25,915)
2001: 436.8 M/C (11,394,522/26,084)
2002: 448.4 M/C (11,721,548/26,143)
2003: 456.8 M/C (11,985,254/26,237)
2004: 460.3 M/C (12,275,822/26,670)
2005: 463.7 M/C (12,560,869/27,087)
2006: 468.4 M/C (12,868,606/27,475)
2007: 474.1 M/C (13,193,999/27,827)
2008: 480.6 M/C (13,508,509/28,109)
2009: 486.4 M/C (13,824,854/28,424)
2010: 493.1 M/C (14,131,467/28,660)
2011: 501.7 M/C (14,441,346/28,784)
2012: 509.5 M/C (14,782,473/29,014)

2013: 515.6 M/C (15,082,028/29,253)

Since 1999 the increase in congregations is 13.4%, and the increase in members is 40.3%.

In addition to the total membership, I am tracking 20 different areas. Some of those 20 areas had some interesting changes from 2012 to 2013.

Ghana decreased its M/C for the second year in a row.
Both Mexico and Peru increased their M/C significantly by 15 and 30 respectively. Mexico is now at 679 and Peru is at 701.

Sweden has had 40 congregations for 4 consecutive years.

8 of the 20 areas had a decrease in M/C.

South Africa and the United Kingdom each had a decrease in total membership.

Attached is the chart that I have maintained since 2009.

LDS Church Membership 2008-2013.pdf

[canard78]

It's a fascinating statistical analysis.

I remember last time we discussed this some people were adamant that this wasn't evidence of growing inactivity and instead was evidence that the church was allowing wards to get bigger before splitting them.

[Duncan]

I recall hearing that the Church builds a new chapel every single day, is that true ?

[Spammer]

Based on these data, average unit size has increased from 416 members to 515 members per congregation.  I suppose these data include everyone on the ward roster, not just active members who can be counted on to be there most Sundays.

Edited June 1, 2014 by Spammer

[cdowis]

For those statistic challenged, please explain what an increase or decrease in M/C implies -- I assume that an increase is a bad thing, that the number of organized units are decreasing for the number of members of record, which implies greater number of inactives.

Edited June 1, 2014 by cdowis

[Thinking]

For those statistic challenged, please explain what an increase or decrease in M/C implies -- I assume that an increase is a bad thing, that the number of organized units are decreasing for the number of members of record, which implies greater number of inactives.

 

I believe that an increase in M/C suggests a decreasing activity rate. Why? A congregation needs to have certain positions filled in order to function. Inactives don't fill those positions but add to the membership numbers.

 

What's interesting is why the M/C is so low in a place like Sweden (237) but so high in a place like Peru (701). I went on my mission to Peru in the early 80's. I don't know what it's like now, but back then I rarely saw more than 50 people in attendance at sacrament meeting (in each place that I served). Perhaps somebody who served in Peru or Sweden recently can enlighten us.

 

Resignations will decrease both total membership and M/C. I wonder if that's what happened in South Africa and the United Kingdom.

[Thinking]

I recall hearing that the Church builds a new chapel every single day, is that true ?

 

239 congregations were added in 2013. 46 of those were in Utah where it is common to have 3 wards per building (I've even seen 4). I know that outside of Utah there are places where buildings are not shared. Assuming an average of 2 wards per building, 120 buildings would need to be constructed, about one every three days.

[Buzzard]

It's a fascinating statistical analysis.

I remember last time we discussed this some people were adamant that this wasn't evidence of growing inactivity and instead was evidence that the church was allowing wards to get bigger before splitting them.

No reason it can't be both. It's safe to assume that part of the increase is due to issues with retention, but my in Utah ward not only do we crack the curtain into the overflow every Sunday, but at least two Sundays per month, we are setting up chairs in the gym. No mention of splitting the ward-probably because we have no building to put a new ward into. I can attest from personal observation growing up in Utah in the 1970's that any ward our size back then would have been divided long ago.

[cdowis]

"four wards in a building"

 

When I went to the married ward at BYU. sacrament meeting started at 5pm

[Mystery Meat]

So what does a higher activity rate imply? 

 

I have heard those who are critical of the Church bring this up from time to time. It seems they want to use it as evidence that the Church is shrinking and thereby not true. That people are catching on to the con.

 

It's like they have never read the same scriptures as I have. This is pretty much what I always anticipated would happen. In fact, I would say this is just more scriptural support for the Church being, gasp, true.

[Thinking]

So what does a higher activity rate imply? 

 

I have heard those who are critical of the Church bring this up from time to time. It seems they want to use it as evidence that the Church is shrinking and thereby not true. That people are catching on to the con.

 

It's like they have never read the same scriptures as I have. This is pretty much what I always anticipated would happen. In fact, I would say this is just more scriptural support for the Church being, gasp, true.

 

Activity rates don't determine truth. The main reason I try to infer from published data what might be going on is the simple fact that the total membership count is consistently published in articles released by the LDS Church.

[eddie]

Resignations will decrease both total membership and M/C. I wonder if that's what happened in South Africa and the United Kingdom.

Or more deaths than baptisms.

The UK lost a few members in one year, but the only place in the world that has fewer members today than it did 10 years ago is Denmark. (A minimum of 1,000 members.) It is tough to track growth using just year to year growth.

[cdowis]

.

The UK lost a few members in one year, but the only place in the world that has fewer members today than it did 10 years ago is Denmark. (A minimum of 1,000 members.)

 

And what is the rate of population growth in Denmark?  This analysis would be more meaningful when compared to the change in population.

 

Also there may be more members emigrating than replacement by births and converts.

[eddie]

And what is the rate of population growth in Denmark? This analysis would be more meaningful when compared to the change in population.

Also there may be more members emigrating than replacement by births and converts.

Good question, I will look that up later.

[Thinking]

And what is the rate of population growth in Denmark?

 

From 2003 to 2013 Denmark's population increased from 5.391 million to 5.614 million (4.14% overall, about 0.4% per year)

 

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