Missionary number has shown 29 percent net increase since latter 2012

[ALarson]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Much is being made here of Elder Holland's projection.

Not really.  But it is part of the discussion since it relates to the recent drop and wondering what may occur to bring the number up to the projection in a 3 years time frame.

When much will really be made here of Elder Holland's projection will be in 2019, if the numbers of missionaries serving has reached 100,000 (or not).

.

Edited February 11, 2016 by ALarson

[stemelbow]

from mormonnewsroom:  "The number of full-time missionaries serving missions for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is 74,079 (following the missionary age change in 2012 the total number peaked and then tapered as anticipated. Currently they are on a steady upward trend, but may see seasonal fluctuations). "

 

probably a good idea to not suggest we've bottomed out at 75,000 if fluctuations may come and go and may see numbers dip below what is current. 

[stemelbow]

Also Scott, you might want to correct the title.  The difference between 2012 58,990 and today 74,079 is 15,089 which is a 25.58 percent increase. 

[Scott Lloyd]

11 hours ago, stemelbow said:

To be clear, on mormonnewsroom/facts-and-statistics right now, the reported number of missionaries is 74,079.  We're a thousand less than what was reported by Elder Oaks.  Not sure if his number came from before or after the 74,000 currently as reported on the site.  Or if his was a rounding up. 

http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/facts-and-statistics

 

At the end of 2014 "peaked at nearly 89,000" http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865619186/Creation-of-11-new-missions-indicates-the-work-continues-apace.html

We're down 15,000 missionaries in 14 months. 

I'm thinking this covers through the end of calendar year 2015 and is identical to what will be reported in general conference, which always reflects the numbers through the end of the prior calendar year. 

If so, this only bears out what I have been saying: that the number has bottomed out and is increasing again. In fact it had already increased by a thousand by the time the worldwide missionary broadcast occurred in January. We can expect the figure then to have been up to the minute, since it was an announcement of the number of missionaries who at that moment were hearing the broadcast. 

Edited February 12, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, stemelbow said:

Also Scott, you might want to correct the title.  The difference between 2012 58,990 and today 74,079 is 15,089 which is a 25.58 percent increase. 

You are assuming the 74,079 is up to the minute. I don't think it is. I believe the 75,000 figure given in the Worldwide Missionary Broadcast is fresher information.

Thus between latter 2012 and January 2016, there has been at least a 29 percent net increase, just as I said. It might even be higher now.

Edited to add: The year end total for 2012 is not what it was when the age changes were announced a full two months before the end of the year. The surge was already underway by then. 

Edited February 11, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[ALarson]

1 minute ago, Scott Lloyd said:

You are assuming the 74,079 is up to the minute. I don't think it is. I believe the 75,000 figure given in the Worldwide Missionary Broadcast is fresher information.

Or, he rounded up 

[Scott Lloyd]

23 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

I'm curious how often the mormonnewsroom site is updated.  yearly?  Was the number reported on that side from end 2015? 

What you have pointed to is an official report from the First Presidency. And I'm fairly certain it is only updated yearly, and thus would only cover through the end of 2015. I know that what is reported in April general conference each year only covers through the end of the prior calendar year.

So that means what I have been saying has been borne out: The number is indeed increasing and, in fact, had already increased a thousand by the time the 75,000 was announced at the beginning of the Worldwide Missionary Training Broadcast.

 

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, ALarson said:

Ok, so it'll still show a decrease and those are the stats we have for now.  Maybe by the next conference, new numbers will show the increase you heard about? (Or will the same stats be used then too?).  Going by stemmelbow's post above, the numbers have even dropped more now.

The statistical report is only given in April general conference. They don't update it for the October conference.

And the statistics stemelbow linked to show just the opposite of what you say here: the numbers have increased between the end of last year and now.

Edited February 11, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, stemelbow said:

I'm not sure saying a colleague heard someone say the number of missionaries has begun to increase is a reliable source to conclude the number bottomed out at 75,000.  Particularly since mormonnewsroom is currently telling us 74,000 is the current number. 

OK, I shouldn't have said it bottomed out at 75,000.

But apparently what was reported at the seminar for new MTC presidents and visitors center directors is true: The number is on the rise again as is shown by comparing the statistical report on Mormon Newsroom (covering through the end of last year) and what was announced at the Worldwide Missionary Broadcast.

So, if you calculate the 58,000 missionaries of latter 2012 and the 75,000 of today, that's a 29 percent net increase in just over three years..

Edited February 11, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Scott Lloyd]

Consider an increase of a thousand missionaries between year-end 2015 and latter January 2016: That's a pretty impressive growth rate.

If that rate holds steady (which I don't think it will), we could be back up into the mid-80,000 range by the end of this year.

[Scott Lloyd]

I made this point on the other thread, but it bears repeating.

We need to be conscious of seasonal fluctuations in the number of missionaries, fluctuations that weren't present before the announcement of the changes in age. Young men who turn 18 while they are still in high school must wait until after they have graduated before they receive their mission call. I used the example of my son, who turned 18 in February of last year but had to wait until graduation for his mission call and did not leave until September, just five months shy of his 19th birthday.

[Scott Lloyd]

52 minutes ago, ALarson said:

Not really.  But it is part of the discussion since it relates to the recent drop and wondering what may occur to bring the number up to the projection in a 3 years time frame.

When much will really be made here of Elder Holland's projection will be in 2019, if the numbers of missionaries serving has reached 100,000 (or not).

.

Why are you so insistent that Elder Holland's projection has to be fulfilled? It was, after all, a comment made to an inquiring journalist, not an institutional goal.

[ALarson]

16 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Why are you so insistent that Elder Holland's projection has to be fulfilled? It was, after all, a comment made to an inquiring journalist, not an institutional goal.

Where do you see that I am "insistent" his projection be "fulfilled"?   Can you supply a quote from me stating that?

 I'm simply making an observation that:

16 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

When much will really be made here of Elder Holland's projection will be in 2019, if the numbers of missionaries serving has reached 100,000 (or not).

.

Edited February 11, 2016 by ALarson

[Scott Lloyd]

7 minutes ago, ALarson said:

Where do you see that I am "insistent" his projection be "fulfilled"?   Can you supply a quote from me stating that?

 I'm simply making an observation that:

.

Because you keep beating the same drum as though Elder Holland's prediction were sacrosanct.

What does it matter whether we reach 100,000 by 2019 or whether it comes later?

[Analytics]

26 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I made this point on the other thread, but it bears repeating.

We need to be conscious of seasonal fluctuations in the number of missionaries, fluctuations that weren't present before the announcement of the changes in age. Young men who turn 18 while they are still in high school must wait until after they have graduated before they receive their mission call. I used the example of my son, who turned 18 in February of last year but had to wait until graduation for his mission call and did not leave until September, just five months shy of his 19th birthday.

I don't think the seasonality thing will be that big of a deal.  If, say, 75% of elders now leave on their missions between July and September, they will be replacing the 75% of elders that left on their missions between July and September 2 years prior--the seasonality associated with missionaries joining the force is cancelled out by the seasonality of missionaries leaving the force, with little net seasonality for the total numbers out there.

Do we have any information about the sex distribution of missionaries and how that has changed over time?  How many of the 17,000 increase are Sisters?

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, stemelbow said:

from mormonnewsroom:  "The number of full-time missionaries serving missions for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is 74,079 (following the missionary age change in 2012 the total number peaked and then tapered as anticipated. Currently they are on a steady upward trend, but may see seasonal fluctuations). "

 

If "the total number peaked and then tapered as anticipated" and is currently "on a steady upward trend" (emphasis mine), doesn't that pretty much bear out what I've been saying and corroborate what was said at the seminar for new MTC presidents and directors of visitor centers and historic sites?

Edited February 11, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[ALarson]

15 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Because you keep beating the same drum as though Elder Holland's prediction were sacrosanct.

I didn't think you could produce a quote by me supporting this accusation.  It's not a fair portrayal at all since I have not done this in either thread.  Maybe others have, but I have not.

. 

Edited February 11, 2016 by ALarson

[smac97]

12 hours ago, Five Solas said:

Curious, Scott, how much of the change in numbers of missionaries you attribute to closing the gap to a single year between the young men (previously 19, now 18) and young women (previously 21, now 19).  And if women are now nearly as encouraged as men to serve as missionaries--why haven't we seen a much more dramatic and sustainable increase?       

--Erik

 

I think we have seen a dramatic increase in the number of sister missionaries, who now comprise a substantially larger percentage of the missionary force than they did prior to the age change (28% were single sisters as of July 2014, up from, IIRC, about 13% before the age change).  That said, women are not, I think, "nearly as encouraged as men to serve."  I think the Church's MO remains effectively the same in that regard.  

I have a daughter who is 15 now.  The age change lowering age to 19 for sisters had a clear and direct impact on her, namely, that she became much more determined to serve a mission.  I think she had been less committed to the idea when the age was 21 because she thought she might be married or close to it by the time she reached that age.  Her mother and many of her aunts got married at a young age.

Thanks,

Smac

Edited February 11, 2016 by smac97

[Scott Lloyd]

5 minutes ago, ALarson said:

I didn't think you could produce a quote by me supporting this accusation.  It's not a fair portrayal at all since I have not done this in either thread.  Maybe others have, but I have not.

. 

From this thread:

Quote

What's of interest is the recent decrease in numbers of missionaries serving in light of the prediction from Elder Holland that there would be 100,000 missionaries serving by 2019.  What will happen to turn the now decreasing numbers into an increase before then if his prediction turns out to be accurate?  Maybe more changes are in coming....

Clearly, you think something has to "happen" to turn Elder Holland's projection into reality. You haven't explained why that necessarily has to be the case.

[smac97]

3 hours ago, Five Solas said:

My apology for my lack of clarity.  Try it this way:  Prior to the change, LDS women had to wait two years past a man's eligibility.  And some fraction of these women still served as missionaries.  Keep in mind a 21-year old is likely to be a lot further into her education, career, etc. than at 19.  Therefore it was considerably more disruptive for an LDS woman to serve than it was for her male counterpart.  That should be pretty evident, right? 

Today, the situation is closer to parity and I *assume* this is a significant encouragement for more women to serve.  Women make up ~ half the population, so the result of the change should be very large and sustained (not merely a temporary "surge" attributable to 18 year-old men signing up).  I'm not saying it should have exactly doubled, since there were some women serving already.  But certainly more than 29%. 

What am I missing, Scott?

--Erik

 

Women make up 1/2 the population of the Church, but not 1/2 the population of the Church's missionary force.  They never have.  But the percentage of the force who are women has risen significantly in the last few years since the age change.  I don't have stats on hand, but my recollection is that single sisters had previously represented about 13% of the missionary force.  But as of July 2014 28% of the missionary force was comprised of single sisters.  So overall I believe there are significantly more single sisters serving since the change in the age requirement.

Does that answer your question?

Thanks,

-Smac

[ALarson]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

From this thread:

Clearly, you think something has to "happen" to turn Elder Holland's projection into reality. You haven't explained why that necessarily has to be the case.

Look, I really don't care what it is or if the number is even reached.  It's just a part of this discussion and that's about it.  I think I stated earlier that most of this discussion is just speculation anyway. (And still no quote from you where I "insist" that Elder Holland's projection must be "fulfilled"?  That's because I have not stated that anywhere on either thread.)

I think the only official number of active missionaries we have is from the newsroom and that is 74,079.  That's a decrease.  If that can be increased to 100,000 by 2016, that would be great.

.

Edited February 11, 2016 by ALarson

[Scott Lloyd]

11 minutes ago, smac97 said:

I think we have seen a dramatic increase in the number of sister missionaries, who now comprise a substantially larger percentage of the missionary force than they did prior to the age change (28% were single sisters as of July 2014, up from, IIRC, about 13% before the age change).  That said, women are not, I think, "nearly as encouraged as men to serve."  I think the Church's MO remains effectively the same in that regard.  

I have a daughter who is 15 now.  The age change lowering age to 19 for sisters had a clear and direct impact on her, namely, that she became much more determined to serve a mission.  I think she had been less committed to the idea when the age was 21 because she thought she might be married or close to it by the time she reached that age.  Her mother and many of her aunts got married at a young age.

Thanks,

Smac

I haven't the specific numbers that some here are desiring, but my observation too is that the number of sister missionaries has dramatically increased.

This week, I was a judge in the Sterling Scholars, an annual competition for area high school students in various categories.

During the interview portion, two or three of the female contestants mentioned that they planned to serve a mission. I asked each young woman what role the age change had played in her decision. The answer was nearly uniform: that being able to serve at a younger age left more time later to accomplish other aspirations.

I think that has been a common motivator, though, as you say here, the attitude of the Church has not changed: missionary service from young women is welcomed but not required, not in the sense that it is from young men. Because of this, I don't think the ratio of sisters to elders will ever approach 50/50.

[ALarson]

2 hours ago, stemelbow said:

I'm curious how often the mormonnewsroom site is updated.  yearly?  Was the number reported on that side from end 2015? 

The date at the bottom of the site states 2016.  But, I don't know if that's when it was updated.

[ALarson]

2 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

The number is indeed increasing and, in fact, had already increased a thousand by the time the 75,000 was announced at the beginning of the Worldwide Missionary Training Broadcast.

Was there an announcement made regarding the numbers?  I'm not doubting you, but I haven't seen that quote.  Can you copy and paste it here, if it was announced?  Thanks.

I've only read this (stated by the author of the Deseret News article):

The meeting, which originated in the Conference Center Theater, was translated and broadcast to the Church's 75,000 full-time missionaries serving across the globe. 

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865645872/Elder-Dallin-H-Oaks-speaks-at-Worldwide-Missionary-Broadcast-Our-message-for-missionaries.html?pg=all

.

Edited February 11, 2016 by ALarson

[stemelbow]

Scott you're using rounded figures to determine percent increase, which is silly.  I'm using actual reported numbers.  But if that doesn't work for you, then fine.  I just find it a silly way to message things. 

Anywho, it's interesting that the increase was about 15,000 from 2012 to the reported number on Mormonnewsroom site--which could be updated monthly or years for all we know--but in that we see a 14,000 decrease from last year to this year. 

1.  Did the surge come to an end yet?  I thought it had already subsided last January, though?

2.  Is there another factor that we haven't considered/don't know about that has cuased the number to decrease recently?