25 Years And Strength

[Gray]

The latest I heard was a Des News article that was quickly squashed, saying that activity worldwide is 36%. That's actually pretty good--all things considered and compared to other religions. Is it higher than that now? Or is 36% the higher figure from what it used to be?

It's good to hear it's up, but up from where and how much? Same with retention. If up, from what? To what?

 

I think previous best estimates put activity rate at like 33%, so maybe it's up from that. 

 

John Dehlin posted an old New Era article that quoted activity rates in the 1920s at 20-some percent (going off of memory), and activity rates plateauing in the 1960s at 36%. Back when they actually posted those figures. 

[stemelbow]

I think previous best estimates put activity rate at like 33%, so maybe it's up from that. 

 

John Dehlin posted an old New Era article that quoted activity rates in the 1920s at 20-some percent (going off of memory), and activity rates plateauing in the 1960s at 36%. Back when they actually posted those figures.

Hey Gray. Thanks for the contribution. I'm curious how activity rates and retention rates are measured. From what I understand one is an active member if one attends Church meetings once a month. So it seems, in Sacrament, for instance, if my ward has 550 people on it's roster and say 210 on average attend the meeting once a month is the activity rate in my ward 40% (220/550)? I think that's the idea, but not sure. Retention rates...I'm not sure how that's measured, particularly since we don't name the individuals attending sacrament.

[Mystery Meat]

I missed it in the other thread.  Do you have data to support the statement?  I'd like to add it to the data that I keep.

 

I do not have them. Even if I did, I couldn't share them.

[Gray]

Hey Gray. Thanks for the contribution. I'm curious how activity rates and retention rates are measured. From what I understand one is an active member if one attends Church meetings once a month. So it seems, in Sacrament, for instance, if my ward has 550 people on it's roster and say 210 on average attend the meeting once a month is the activity rate in my ward 40% (220/550)? I think that's the idea, but not sure. Retention rates...I'm not sure how that's measured, particularly since we don't name the individuals attending sacrament.

 

I believe how we count active membership has changed. I think it used to be twice a month attendance, and now it's once a month? Not sure. I don't think the change was too recent - maybe five years ago? Someone in a bishopric could confirm. 

[rockpond]

I do not have them. Even if I did, I couldn't share them.

 

Okay... so what are you using as a basis for your statement that reactivation and retention are up?

[rockpond]

I believe how we count active membership has changed. I think it used to be twice a month attendance, and now it's once a month? Not sure. I don't think the change was too recent - maybe five years ago? Someone in a bishopric could confirm. 

 

Short answer:  once a month.

 

The Church has us report the following metrics for our ward:

Average Sacrament Mtg Attendance

HT/VT percentages

Attendance % at priesthood, RS, YW, YM, and primary.

They also automatically track things like priesthood advancement, baptisms, etc that are in the records for them to see.

 

When reporting the attendance metrics noted above they pose it as "the number of [men/women/children/prospective elders/etc] who attended at least one meeting during the last month of the quarter".

[Mystery Meat]

Okay... so what are you using as a basis for your statement that reactivation and retention are up?

 

Access to people who know.

[stemelbow]

Short answer:  once a month.

 

The Church has us report the following metrics for our ward:

Average Sacrament Mtg Attendance

HT/VT percentages

Attendance % at priesthood, RS, YW, YM, and primary.

They also automatically track things like priesthood advancement, baptisms, etc that are in the records for them to see.

 

When reporting the attendance metrics noted above they pose it as "the number of [men/women/children/prospective elders/etc] who attended at least one meeting during the last month of the quarter".

A change in how they measure activity could be the only thing that shows a difference in activity rates. So if it's up, say over what it was in 1920, perhaps in 1920 they measured activity much differently. In actuality perhaps there was better activity in 1920. I guess it's possible.

[stemelbow]

In the history of the Church there have been only two decades that have had slower growth rates than the recent (2000-2009) decade. Anyone want to guess which two?

Well I'll just tell you: the 1850s (growth rate of 17.83%) and the 1920s (27.38%)

the decade beginning the 2000s saw a growth rate of 27.67%.

This current decade (2010-2019) is putting us at a rate of 21.5%

So as it is, we're growing slower than we ever have in the past (save for one anomaly decade). I think that's a staggering reality.

Sure, we might have reasons for it--the focus on retention and reactivation may be the big cause--but it's still a concern, in my estimation.

I did a quick estimation/projection to what we might see for this current decade(2010-2019).

By the end of the 2019 I figure we will be around 17,169,135 members on record. I based the projection on take the growth rate of the previous 5 years of this decade, and the trending decline and filled in the remining years with that percentage. Add the projected growth based on that to the previous year. This may end up a little bit low from reality though.

Edited April 10, 2015 by stemelbow

[stemelbow]

Nevermind...
 
I tried to create table and post them, but I can't get them to post in a usable format.  Anyone want to instruct?

 

Column1 Membership Increase2 Percent change

1829

6     1830 280 274 4566.67% 1840 16,865 16,585 5923.21% 1850 51,839 34,974 207.38% 1860 61,082 9,243 17.83% 1870 90,130 29,048 47.56% 1880 133,628 43,498 48.26% 1890 188,263 54,635 40.89%

1900

283,765 95,502 50.73% 1910 398,478 114,713 40.43% 1920 525,987 127,509 32.00% 1930 670,017 144,030 27.38% 1940 862,664 192,647 28.75% 1950 1,111,314 248,650 28.82% 1960 1,693,180 581,866 52.36% 1970 2,930,810 1,237,630 73.10% 1980 4,639,822 1,709,012 58.31% 1990 7,761,179 3,121,357 67.27% 2000 11,068,861 3,307,682 42.62% 2010 14,131,467 3,062,606 27.67% 2020 17,169,135 3,037,668 21.50% Edited April 10, 2015 by stemelbow

[Teancum]

I think this is why Elder Cook's recent statements have caused some to wonder.  I know that using the word "strength" can mean many things and it's been suggested he was referring to the "inner strength" of the church.  His examples of temple recommend holders and tithe payers increasing could very well be because of the recent surge of missionaries going out.  A lot more young people going to the temple and a lot more parents (possibly) who weren't holding current recommends but wanting to go to the temple with their missionary child.  There are just many variables, but the stats that were shared show a slow down of growth.

 

Also, the one stat they really don't have is the number of members who are still attending but no longer believe.  I'm sort of in that category in that I went through my own faith crisis and I'm now active again, but I do not have the blind belief that I had prior to this.  I do love my ward and I love a lot about the church.

 

 

I think the Church is stronger.  More members and even a low % of active members is more members. I think over all activity it up even if world wide it is likely about 30%-35%.   I think that is higher than in the past. I recall hearing President Hinckley talk about activity rates on the Wasatch Front many years ago being that or lower and how pleased he was the activity rate had increases. I think he was correct.

 

We have more missionaries than ever and while convert per missionaries is not all that great the impact on the missionaries is.  More of them will become active members.

 

More temples and more attending.

 

On the other hand.....yes I have another hand..... this impact on the over all world is small and insignificant.  Some will argue that the most significant impact is on the individual and they may well be correct.  But 35% of 15 million is pretty small potatoes on the world stage.  

 

And personally, while the Church is stronger the facts show that the Church has been very weak in the past and is still weak but has improved.

 

On the third hand... no I only have two hands... I think financially the Church is powerful and stronger than its numbers warrant which to me is fascinating.  Also at least in the USA the Mormons in political and business power positions if much higher proportionally than its the numbers of LDS warrant.  It speaks well to the fact the Mormons people, likely due to the culture their religion creates, are high achievers.