TheSkepticChristian Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) Your way off the question was: Do you really know what you are talking about? Yes, now please answer my question. Edited April 22, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian
ERayR Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 Yes, now please answer my question. Pogi and Mola have both answered with no effect, I have no reason to believe an answer from me would be any different.
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 Pogi and Mola have both answered with no effect, I have no reason to believe an answer from me would be any different. How? tell me which post, perhaps I missed it. You never answer my questions anyways.
ERayR Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) How? tell me which post, perhaps I missed it. You never answer my questions anyways. The fact that you have to ask that question show you are not paying attention to anyone who disagrees with you. I have already had my lessons in futility and have been conditioned to only go down the rabbit hole for a short distance. Edited April 22, 2015 by ERayR
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) The fact that you have to ask that question show you are not paying attention to anyone who disagrees with you. I do, in fact I may be wrong about the air land surface warming. You never pay attention to what I say, you always dismiss what I say. You can accuse me of always dismissing other reasonable points of view, but that doesn't make it true. Edited April 22, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian
pogi Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 The 4 warmest years were likely after 1998, do yo agree? That is the most likely out of all the unlikely scenarios, but that doesn't make it "likely" (I repeat myself in saying this)...happy? I just can't stand the tension any longer, where are you going with this?
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) That is the most likely out of all the unlikely scenarios CFR that is not accurate, it is not an unlikely scenario. You are not understanding what NASA and NOAA are saying. It is more unlikely that the 4 warmest years are between 1880 to 1998, that is a very unlikely scenario. see the data, I am not getting my info from a skeptic website that tries to interpret what NASA and NOAA are saying http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt In fact better measurements of global temperatures started after the year 2000 My point is that your so-called pause is highly unlikely Edited April 22, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian
Mola Ram Suda Ram Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) How? tell me which post, perhaps I missed it. You never answer my questions anyways. Rofl. I already responded. I will type it out differently so this time you catch it. ItIsMoreLikelyThatItWasHotterPriorto1998ThanNow. Edited April 22, 2015 by Mola Ram Suda Ram 2
pogi Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) CFR that is not accurate, it is not an unlikely scenario. Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha... Mola Ram and I are both rofl! Do you really want a CFR for what has been posted here a dozen times? Remember? 2014 only has about a 38% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - unlikely), and only a 15% chance of being warmer than 2010 (translation - very unlikely). 1998 only has around a 4% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - very, very unlikely) etc, etc. 2014 - 38%2010 - 23 %2005 - 17%1998 - 4% Do you understand how probabilities work? In case you don't know how to interpret those percentages, a link has been thrown around here a half dozen times as well: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-1 For your convenience: 33.3% - 50% (now compare to the percentages above) = “more unlikely than likely”. My point is that your so-called pause is highly unlikely ??? Look at the calculated probabilities after accounting for all data variables from 1880 - 2014. You are flat out embarrassingly wrong. Edited April 22, 2015 by pogi 1
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) 2014 - 38%2010 - 23 %2005 - 17%1998 - 4% The other years together make about 1%, what is so hard to understand about that?So that proves that it is more likely that the top four are from 1998 to 2014, you been reading too many skeptics websites. the chance of 2014 being "One of the five warmest years: 90.4%"- NOAA"The graphic on the right zooms further to compare with what were ultimately the five next warmest years on record: 2010, 2005, 1998, 2003, and 2013." - NOAAhttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-2 2014 is almost certainly one of the 5 hottest years, so how is your so-called pause more likely? The numbers (together) before 1998 have a very low probability, so please don't accuse me of not understanding probabilities, I do. I admit that 2014 is not likely the hottest year, but it is very likely it is one of the five warmest years. 2010 is also very likely to be one of the five warmest years, the top 4 are more likely after 1998. Edited April 22, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian
pogi Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) 2014 only has about a 38% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - unlikely), and only a 15% chance of being warmer than 2010 (translation - very unlikely). 1998 only has around a 4% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - very, very unlikely) etc, etc. Can you refute it? Show me how how the pause is "highly unlikely" using the percentages and probabilities given. you been reading too many skeptics websites. You are right, they are almost all yours and TSS (pause in warming skeptics). I have only briefly glanced at a couple pages on skeptic websites throughout this entire thread, most of the blogs and videos come from you guys. I have been linking to NASA etc. Edited April 22, 2015 by pogi
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 Let me put it again, just in case the chance of 2014 being "One of the five warmest years: 90.4%"- NOAA"The graphic on the right zooms further to compare with what were ultimately the five next warmest years on record: 2010, 2005, 1998, 2003, and 2013." - NOAA https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-2
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) Show me how how the pause is "highly unlikely" using the percentages and probabilities given. By the simple fact that 2014 is very likely to be one of the top five the chance of 2014 being "One of the five warmest years: 90.4%"- NOAA"The graphic on the right zooms further to compare with what were ultimately the five next warmest years on record: 2010, 2005, 1998, 2003, and 2013." - NOAAhttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-2 Because if 2014 is one of the top five, that means that your so-called pause theory is not correct. 2014 and 2010 are very likely to be on the top five Edited April 22, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian
pogi Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) 2014 only has about a 38% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - unlikely), and only a 15% chance of being warmer than 2010 (translation - very unlikely). 1998 only has around a 4% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - very, very unlikely) etc, etc. once again, can you refute it? By the simple fact that 2014 is very likely to be one of the top five Dude, the top 5 years are from 1998 - 2014. THAT IS THE PAUSE. The probability of any warming in those years is very low!!! Can you refute that too? Edited April 22, 2015 by pogi 1
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) Dude, the top 5 years are from 1998 - 2014. Let me put it this way. 2014 or 2010 or 2013 or 2005 or 2003 is very highly likely to be the warmest year, warmer than any year before 1998. Edited April 22, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) are from 1998 - 2014. That is not accurate, one of the top five since 1880, let me give you the full context Taking into account the uncertainty and assuming all years (1880-2014) in the time series are independent, the chance of 2014 beingWarmest year on record: 48.0%One of the five warmest years: 90.4%https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-1 Edited April 22, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian
pogi Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) That is not accurate, one of the top five since That is what I was saying the top 5 years from 1880 range between 1998-2014 (the near 2 decade plateau). Don't get conceded, the top five barely make it by an unlikely margin. 2014 only has about a 38% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - unlikely), and only a 15% chance of being warmer than 2010 (translation - very unlikely). 1998 only has around a 4% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - very, very unlikely) etc, etc. Try #3 - can you refute it? Edited April 22, 2015 by pogi
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 22, 2015 Posted April 22, 2015 (edited) That is what I was saying the top 5 years from 1880 range between 1998-2014 (the near 2 decade plateau). So if the top 5 are from 1998 to 2014, how can you call that a pause? I don't understand If there is a pause, the hottest years have to be before 1998, not after. Edited April 22, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian
pogi Posted April 23, 2015 Posted April 23, 2015 So if the top 5 are from 1998 to 2014, how can you call that a pause? I don't understand If there is a pause, the hottest years have to be before 1998, not after. Do you know what a plateau is? The flat-lined "top" of a climb.
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 23, 2015 Posted April 23, 2015 (edited) Don't get conceded, the top five barely make it by an unlikely margin. Not 2014 according to NOAA, 2014 is almost certainly in the top 5 Edited April 23, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian
pogi Posted April 23, 2015 Posted April 23, 2015 (edited) 2014 only has about a 38% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - unlikely), and only a 15% chance of being warmer than 2010 (translation - very unlikely). 1998 only has around a 4% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - very, very unlikely) etc, etc. ANSWER THE QUESTION. I know you can see it. Try #4 Can you refute it? Not 2014 according to NOAA, 2014 is almost certainly in the top 5 38% is an unlikely margin (as in "more unlikely than likely") This really really is kindergarten math. No one is refuting that it is in the top 5. Edited April 23, 2015 by pogi
pogi Posted April 23, 2015 Posted April 23, 2015 (edited) I admit that 2014 is not likely the hottest year Remember when you said that? Edited April 23, 2015 by pogi
TheSkepticChristian Posted April 23, 2015 Posted April 23, 2015 (edited) 38% is an unlikely margin (as in "more unlikely than likely") This really really is kindergarten math. I said I agree that 2014 is probably not the hottest year, but it is very likely on the top five.2010 is very likely on the top five too. Try number 10 2014 and 2010 are very likely two of the five warmest years, so where is no warming since 1998? The hottest year is very likely 2014, 2010, or 2005, where is the no warming? Edited April 23, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian
pogi Posted April 23, 2015 Posted April 23, 2015 (edited) I have said all along that there has been a pause from 1998. This data demonstrates that warming over that time period is more unlikely than likely. The only thing they can say with confidence is that the 5 hottest years are from 1998 to 2014. It is still more unlikely than likely that 2014 was the hottest year. In other words, from 1998 to 2014 there has been no appreciable warming to give scientists a high degree of confidence that there is not a pause. There is only a 34% chance (translation - more unlikely than likely) that 2014 was warmer than 1998 according to the numbers NASA gave, and only a 21% chance that it was warmer than 2005 (Of course that requires some "complex" subtraction skills to figure out). That is not a high degree of confidence that there is warming by any standard! However you try to spin it, it is still more unlikely than likely that 2014 was the warmest year, and more unlikely than likely that there has been any warming with those probabilities. If you are representative of the general public MFT, maybe you are right about their math comprehension level - This is FAR too complex! Remember when I already answered your question? Your memory really sucks. Edited April 23, 2015 by pogi 1
pogi Posted April 23, 2015 Posted April 23, 2015 2014 only has about a 38% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - unlikely), and only a 15% chance of being warmer than 2010 (translation - very unlikely). 1998 only has around a 4% chance of being warmer than 1880 (translation - very, very unlikely) etc, etc. 5th and final try. Can you refute it? I will not continue this debate until you answer the question.
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