Declining Interest In Mormonism

[Stargazer]

Of course it can. We use correlation analysis at work all the time. But only when a causation is reasonably expected in the first place. Nicholas Cage films have nothing to do with pool deaths (see link above).

Climate change has nothing to do with levels of interest in Mormonism.

You weren't being serious though I'm guessing? There's no reasonable hypothesis why the climate would make a difference.

I wasn't really being serious, you're correct. But on the other hand, why wouldn't climate change have any impact on levels of interest in Mormonism? I would be surprised if it did, you understand, but stranger things have happened.

Chains of causality can sometimes take us down some very unexpected roads. The key word here is "unexpected". For example, a pathogen of potatoes that evolved in the Tolucca Valley of Mexico is the ultimate cause of John F. Kennedy's being elected President of the United States. Who knew!

The rise of the Roman Empire appears to be correlated with the Roman Warm Period (approximately 250 BC to 400 AD), in the middle of which was the Pax Romana. It could be argued that the Pax Romana made it possible for Christianity to spread so quickly throughout the Eastern Mediterranean (no borders). Whatever caused the RWP seems to have at least facilitated the establishment of Christian Church.

I don't really want to argue these points; I just find them persuasive and interesting.

[TheSkepticChristian]

Your first sentence could be used as an example of self-contradictory statements.

 

Don't underestimate him. Scientific American article says, "Many climate scientists agree that sunspots and solar wind could be playing a role in climate change, but the vast majority view it as very minimal and attribute Earth’s warming primarily to emissions from industrial activity—and they have thousands of peer-reviewed studies available to back up that claim. Peter Foukal of the Massachusetts-based firm Heliophysics, Inc., who has tracked sunspot intensities from different spots around the globe dating back four centuries, also concludes that such solar disturbances have little or no impact on global warming. " 

[Stargazer]

Don't underestimate him. Scientific American article says, "Many climate scientists agree that sunspots and solar wind could be playing a role in climate change, but the vast majority view it as very minimal and attribute Earth’s warming primarily to emissions from industrial activity—and they have thousands of peer-reviewed studies available to back up that claim. Peter Foukal of the Massachusetts-based firm Heliophysics, Inc., who has tracked sunspot intensities from different spots around the globe dating back four centuries, also concludes that such solar disturbances have little or no impact on global warming. " 

 

The way he stated it appears self-contradictory.  I was not disputing the possible facts, actually.  YOUR statement includes some authoritative verbiage and thus does not qualify for the canard.

 

Now, as a hobbyist astronomer I feel obliged to point out that our sun is now hotter and brighter than it was billions of years ago.  "It is estimated that the Sun has become 30% brighter in the last 4.5 billion years. At present, it is increasing in brightness by about 1% every 100 million years."  This is obviously not driving current global climate change, because the change we are experiencing is too fast.  But it's good to state it, in case someone wonders if it is the sun which is getting hotter. 

[Robert F. Smith]

I wasn't really being serious, you're correct. But on the other hand, why wouldn't climate change have any impact on levels of interest in Mormonism? I would be surprised if it did, you understand, but stranger things have happened.

Chains of causality can sometimes take us down some very unexpected roads. The key word here is "unexpected". For example, a pathogen of potatoes that evolved in the Tolucca Valley of Mexico is the ultimate cause of John F. Kennedy's being elected President of the United States. Who knew!

The rise of the Roman Empire appears to be correlated with the Roman Warm Period (approximately 250 BC to 400 AD), in the middle of which was the Pax Romana. It could be argued that the Pax Romana made it possible for Christianity to spread so quickly throughout the Eastern Mediterranean (no borders). Whatever caused the RWP seems to have at least facilitated the establishment of Christian Church.

I don't really want to argue these points; I just find them persuasive and interesting.

So, what do you make of the fabled "butterfly effect"?

[Stargazer]

So, what do you make of the fabled "butterfly effect"?

 

I think it is a fable.

 

However, you've heard the old For Want of a Nail, right?

 

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.

For want of a shoe the horse was lost.

For want of a horse the rider was lost.

For want of a rider the message was lost.

For want of a message the battle was lost.

For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.

And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

 

The US Civil War might have been a completely different ball game if the Union Army had not benefited from the intelligence provided by the discovery of the Lost Dispatch, containing Lee's Special Order 191, which enabled McClellan to meet Lee at Antietam and stop his invasion of Pennsylvania in 1862.  Harry Turtledove, an alternate history author, picks this point of divergence in that a Confederate soldier sees the package containing the order fall from the messenger's saddlebag, and alerts him to the loss, thus preventing McClellan from getting advance information on Confederate movements.  "Without it, McClellan is unable to find Lee's army and the Battle of Antietam is not fought. Lee reaches Philadelphia and forces McClellan to fight in an unfavorable position. The Confederate States of America is able to crush the Army of the Potomac at Camp Hill, securing with the win support from the United Kingdom and France, so the Emancipation Proclamation never occurs, and the Union is forced to give the Confederate states independence."

 

Now, what would have happened if Marian Rejewski of the Polish Cipher Bureau had been killed in an automobile accident in August 1932, before he had a chance to work on the early Enigma machines?  It was actually his breakthrough work that led to the results that were eventually passed along to the British, who used it to break Enigma.  In the recent movie, The Imitation Game, the Poles are completely disregarded, but if hadn't been for the groundwork done by Rejewski, Alan Turing may never have been able to do what he did.  And the breaking of Enigma was, according to Eisenhower, "decisive" to the Allied victory.  This implies that if Enigma hadn't been broken, WW2 in Europe might not have gone so favorably for the Allies.

 

Butterflies!

[TheSkepticChristian]

Now, as a hobbyist astronomer I feel obliged to point out that our sun is now hotter and brighter than it was billions of years ago.  "It is estimated that the Sun has become 30% brighter in the last 4.5 billion years. At present, it is increasing in brightness by about 1% every 100 million years."  This is obviously not driving current global climate change, because the change we are experiencing is too fast.  But it's good to state it, in case someone wonders if it is the sun which is getting hotter. 

 

I was talking about sunspots. Yes, I agree the Sun is hotter and brighter. However, over the last 35 years the sun has shown a slight cooling trend, but it just for a brief moment. 

 

 

 

 "It is estimated that the Sun has become 30% brighter in the last 4.5 billion years. At present, it is increasing in brightness by about 1% every 100 million years."  T

 

I am glad you pointed that out, Solar output was around 4% weaker during the Cambrian-Ordovician 'greenhouse' period, but the Earth was a lot warmer than it is today.  

Edited September 21, 2015 by TheSkepticChristian

[TheSkepticChristian]

 But on the other hand, why wouldn't climate change have any impact on levels of interest in Mormonism? 

 

 

interesting idea