clarkgoble Posted April 3, 2017 Posted April 3, 2017 (edited) 9 hours ago, The Nehor said: I had the half hour of silence being about a dozen years and some change. A major event? Doesn't sound very scientific....... Yeah I don't recall the details of McConkie's argument. Edit: I think his argument is looking at the half hour of silence when combined with one year to a thousand years. A half hour = 1000 years / 24 / 2 = 20.8 years. This comes out of Rev 8:1. As I said I'm rather skeptical on the idea, to say the least. I'm not at all convinced the seals are exactly at 1000 year marks, for instance. If we make it past 2022 OK then I think it's safe to say it was wrong. To the cliodynamics, it's been in Nature so it's got some scientific chops although one can debate how predictive it is. But it doesn't pretend to be fully predictive - more to note the causes of stresses and not necessarily how people react to them. It's still a controversial thesis to be sure. I've gone more or less from skeptic to think there's something to the idea. Again though one has to be clear about what the thesis is. It's a claim about overproduction of elites as a big stressor on society. While this may correspond to societal conflict, it really depends upon how the society reacts to the imbalance. So for instance in the United States there was a point around 1920 that the US was able to deal with successfully. The argument basically is that 2020 will be similar to 1968 which as you recall was a period of a lot of conflict in the US and an inflection point for significant societal changes. The main argument is really about elite competition. Edited April 3, 2017 by clarkgoble 1
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