How Bad Is the Exodus?

[jkwilliams]

4 minutes ago, the narrator said:

Nearly every friend I have had in the past 20 years who were active during our friendship no longer participates. In fact, I can only think of a few close friends from the past couple decades who still do. At least 5 elders quorum presidents I have had from that period no longer attend. (Funny story: the last EQP I had (9 years ago) basically initiated the events that led to me no longer participating by complaining to our bishop about me. A few months ago I got a message from him out of the blue, wherein he told me that he had made the decision to leave the Church and apologized to me for what I had done. "Looking back I realize you were just trying to help us become better, but I was too full of myself to see that." Now he's apparently creating a website for people to share their testimonies about leaving, or something like that.) In the past couple months a few of my cousins told me they and their spouses no longer go. In addition, I know several people who were once very active and believing who now only attend because of their employment (Church or BYU).

This, of course, is all anecdotal and may say more about me and the types of persons I like to associate with (except for those EQPs, obviously). For pretty much all of my friends it wasn't access to information or history issues that led to them no longer attending, but rather that the Church did almost nothing for them. They found it boring, uninspiring, harmful at times, etc., and they dropped any sense that Church leaders had any particular moral authority over them. If Church history had any role, it was just that the dissolution of simplistic and official narratives meant they no longer felt bound to keep going.

Maybe you and I know the same people. 

[jkwilliams]

1 minute ago, LoudmouthMormon said:

Over the years, the church has surely made it easier to remove names.  And there are no shortage of online resources offering help going through the name removal process.  

I remember going on splits with the bishopric a decade ago, visiting all the inactives and do-not-contact folks.  The evening ended with two or three good visits, and half a dozen people not happy to see us.  We explained their names were still on our records, and if they didn't want contact, the way to guarantee it was to have their name removed - just sign the letter and mail your request in.  Half a dozen people (some angry) all said they'd do it.  6 months later, no letters had arrived.    After the visits, one of the counselors wryly quipped "Look, here's a tithing slip and here's a name removal form.  Stop sitting on the fence and send us one or the other." 

I would have resigned years ago, but I promised my wife I wouldn't do anything unless/until she was ready to do something. She is very unlikely to stop believing, so I'm staying put. I guess that puts me on the fence.

[pogi]

2 hours ago, jkwilliams said:

Am I just imagining that something has changed?

I don't think you are imagining things.  I don't think this phenomenon is unique to our church either.  

 

[jkwilliams]

Just now, pogi said:

I don't think you are imagining things.  I don't think this phenomenon is unique to our church either.  

 

I'm sure it isn't unique to the LDS church. It is, however, a very different situation than when I left. 

[CV75]

2 hours ago, jkwilliams said:

As long as I can remember, some apostates have been predicting the imminent demise of the church. Everyone's leaving, and the church is rapidly collapsing, they say. I think I mentioned before that I had a long conversation with a good exmo friend years ago that we would know things had reached a "critical mass" (at least a significant number of departures) when we saw conference talks and church magazine articles about people leaving, and church discussion of the issues that are the proximate cause of questioning. Neither of us thought we'd see that for many years, but obviously, all of that has happened.

I'm not predicting a mass exodus, but I'm wondering what you guys are seeing locally. I know, it's just anecdotal, but I keep having the same experience over and over: someone I've known for years (decades, even) is now out of the church. Some examples just recently:

• Two family members, both returned missionaries and temple married, have left the church with their spouses and children.
• A family of 8 siblings whom I have known for a long time have all left the church.
• A former colleague from the Church Office Building is now a Presbyterian chaplain.
• A young woman whom we have known since she was born and who served in our area in Virginia as a missionary is now selling coffee for charity and talking about how church leaders pressured her into not reporting a ward member for abusing her for years.
• Another COB colleague who wrote one of the hymns in the LDS hymnbook is now living happily with his also-exmormon husband.
• A couple of missionary companions and a zone leader from my mission have recently left.
• A good friend from my BYU days just divorced his wife, came out as gay, and left the church.

These examples are just from the last few months. I am not suggesting that my anecdotal experience is at all representative, but at least in my circles, there seems to be something happening. Am I just imagining that something has changed?

This sort of thing has been going on for years, from my experience. The less insular (and older) one is, the more of it they have seen. I think the advent of social media has given less opportunity and room for people to remain private and insular in their decisions and observations. President Nelson spoke of two kinds of "something happening":

"I am optimistic about the future. It will be filled with opportunities for each of us to progress, contribute, and take the gospel to every corner of the earth. But I am also not naive about the days ahead. We live in a world that is complex and increasingly contentious. The constant availability of social media and a 24-hour news cycle bombard us with relentless messages. If we are to have any hope of sifting through the myriad of voices and the philosophies of men that attack truth, we must learn to receive revelation.

"Our Savior and Redeemer, Jesus Christ, will perform some of His mightiest works between now and when He comes again. We will see miraculous indications that God the Father and His Son, Jesus Christ, preside over this Church in majesty and glory. But in coming days, it will not be possible to survive spiritually without the guiding, directing, comforting, and constant influence of the Holy Ghost.

"My beloved brothers and sisters, I plead with you to increase your spiritual capacity to receive revelation..." https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/general-conference/2018/04/revelation-for-the-church-revelation-for-our-lives?lang=eng -- and that was 4 years ago already!

[CV75]

2 hours ago, jkwilliams said:

I'm just wondering if it's noticeable at the local level. I wouldn't know, as I pretty much stick to sacrament meeting and don't really know any of the ward members. 

ETA: When I left 15 years or so ago, I didn't know anyone personally who had left (and social media was around then, too). It's just jarring to see people I've known for so long suddenly out. 

I have all sorts of stories from the time I joined in 1975 through 2007 when you left, and thereafter, all reflective of the items you bulleted above.

[Fair Dinkum]

The Church appears to be treading water in terms of replacing those who leave with converts, meaning that any real growth comes from the natural growth of members of the Church having children, or African converts.

But replacing American tithe payers with African tithe payers & non tithe paying babies will cost the church nearly 1 billion in net lost tithing receipts each and every year exponentially.  Meaning each year the church will lose another billion in lost revenue which will be is added to the previous years loss.  After 10 years that will result in 10 billion in lost revenue, after 20 years 20 billion in lost revenue etc

[jkwilliams]

1 minute ago, CV75 said:

I have all sorts of stories from the time I joined in 1975 through 2007 when you left, and thereafter, all reflective of the items you bulleted above.

I know it's been going on for years, but it seems more visible somehow recently. I don't know if it's numbers or the willingness of people to share where they are spiritually.

[bsjkki]

I have children and friends who have left. We had a ward contingent of 4-5 families all leave. Some people have left who I never thought would leave. 
 

Some never returned after covid. 
 

[jkwilliams]

1 minute ago, bsjkki said:

I have children and friends who have left. We had a ward contingent of 4-5 families all leave. Some people have left who I never thought would leave. 
 

Some never returned after covid. 
 

Someone said to me that it's hard for an active Mormon to miss a Sunday of church. It's even harder for that person to go back after they've missed it twice in a row. 

[Metis_LDS]

Since Covid two persons in the ward have become publicly disaffected.  The greater problem it is hard to count (not a joke) how many have not returned since Covid.  We are baptizing in the last six months new converts in numbers I did not expect.  Many also have moved in.  So with the naked eye I cannot see much difference between now and before Covid on a Sunday.  I have seen many many persons leave over my 49 years of membership.  I am sure it will come as no surprise to those that have eyes to see that the Church membership will not be powered by North America or most of the west in the future. But it will be powered by other nations. The cycle is shifting  away from what the Church started with, English speaking peoples.  I do not see this as good or bad. 

[Rivers]

9 minutes ago, Fair Dinkum said:

The Church appears to be treading water in terms of replacing those who leave with converts, meaning that any real growth comes from the natural growth of members of the Church having children, or African converts.

But replacing American tithe payers with African tithe payers & non tithe paying babies will cost the church nearly 1 billion in net lost tithing receipts each and every year exponentially.  Meaning each year the church will lose another billion in lost revenue which will be is added to the previous years loss.  After 10 years that will result in 10 billion in lost revenue, after 20 years 20 billion in lost revenue etc

Good thing that the church has plenty of money in their rainy day fund.

[CV75]

1 minute ago, jkwilliams said:

I know it's been going on for years, but it seems more visible somehow recently. I don't know if it's numbers or the willingness of people to share where they are spiritually.

I don't know -- maybe a little bit of both; the percentages of "conviction" appear to be about the same, from what I've seen. Maybe the politically-charged atmosphere in the USA pushes those members out of the tendency to lapse into activity into more active advertisement or protest.

[bluebell]

1 hour ago, Rivers said:

I wonder if people are having their names removed more frequently as opposed to quietly going inactive.

I think probably. 

[Navidad]

2 hours ago, LoudmouthMormon said:

In other words, we're doing far better than most of the rest of Christianity.

 

Changed my mind!

Edited August 23, 2022 by Navidad

[Navidad]

Quick question. Are there increasing numbers of Pentecostal/Charismatic leaning members in the LDS church? Is there any place in North America where there are wards that have modified the traditional sacrament service to allow for free expressions in singing, testimonies, modes of worship, etc? I hear the quiet reverent Amen after sacrament talks, testimonies, and prayers, but never after a hymn or special music number. Any wards with drums, electronic keyboards, guitars or the like? Has there been any kind of Pentecostal/Charismatic tensions in the LDS church? 

I ask because it seems as if is the Pentecostal non-LDS Christians who are experiencing lots of growth. Is there any hint of that, of amending the sacrament to allow for a bit "freer expressions of worship, spontaneity in worship, or even relaxing the dress code a bit? Any Charismatic wards or Thursday night Scripture studies? Small group get-togethers or support? Praise songs? Are those very ideas blasphemy? 😄 Thanks.

[MorningStar]

I know of one area that was heavily influenced by a bishop announcing he's a woman and a prominent blogger leaving. Otherwise wards are shrinking here because people are moving away to escape crazy policies and politics. 

[Danzo]

I think some of the less active and former members hear may be noticing only the people who are leaving and not the people who are coming in (how do you find out who is coming in unless you attend?).

In my area, I know of a family (husband in the Bishopric) who left the church. But there also was a family that joined the church (son is now putting papers to be a full time missionary, sealed in the temple).  I am currently serving in a recently started Spanish branch so half of the ward I live in probably think I left the church.  In the branch, there were a lot of people who used to be less active becoming more active (and a few who seem to be going the other way)  There have been four convert baptisms in the last year and all are still active, one who was baptized the prior year who just went through the temple.   

Over all, its a mixed bag.  people coming and going.  Probably more coming than going in my branch, but its pretty small so there isn't a big impact on the whole church from my unit. 

[carbon dioxide]

2 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

The Church appears to be treading water in terms of replacing those who leave with converts, meaning that any real growth comes from the natural growth of members of the Church having children, or African converts.

But replacing American tithe payers with African tithe payers & non tithe paying babies will cost the church nearly 1 billion in net lost tithing receipts each and every year exponentially.  Meaning each year the church will lose another billion in lost revenue which will be is added to the previous years loss.  After 10 years that will result in 10 billion in lost revenue, after 20 years 20 billion in lost revenue etc

Expenses in Africa are a lot lower so its a wash.  People make the same assumptions about military spending.  The US spends this many times more than all the other countries.  Yes but the US overhead costs are far higher.  China can do far more with 1 billion dollars in military spending that the US can. 

We can't make assumptions on what the economy in the future will hold.  The world is changing fast and the trend lines are good or bad, depending on perspective.  Many of the worlds rivers are drying up.  Food production is going down. If Russia blows up that nuclear power plant, the radioactive fallout will contaminate much of the farmland in Russia and Ukraine.  Taking out the bulk of the food production from that area which will be a massive problem for the world which brings up increased threats of war, ect around the world.  But even if that does not happen, things are changing fast as we inch towards the second coming.  Point being that tith receipts may go down anyway regardless of people leaving.  This is a small problem in a list of bigger problems that seem to be coming and most of those problems are not directed at the church.  Everyone is going to be affected.  The next 20 years are going to be a lot different than the last 20 or 30 years or no reason to care about tithing receipts over this period. That is small potato stuff.

 

[carbon dioxide]

The Church is bigger today that it was 30 or 40 years ago.  So even if the percentage of people leaving is not changing, the numbers of individuals is bigger due to the higher numbers in the church.   I am sure more are leaving for whatever reason.   Heber C. Kimball said

“I want to say to you, my brethren, the time is coming when we will be mixed up in these now peaceful valleys to that extent that it will be difficult to tell the face of a Saint from the face of an enemy to the people of God. Then, brethren, look out for the great sieve, for there will be a great sifting time, and many will fall; for I say unto you there is a test, a Test, a TEST coming, and who will be able to stand?” (Orson F. Whitney, Life of Heber C. Kimball, Salt Lake City: Bookcraft, 1945, p. 446.)

So maybe we are in the middle of that test right now. 

 

Edited August 23, 2022 by carbon dioxide

[LoudmouthMormon]

2 hours ago, jkwilliams said:

I would have resigned years ago, but I promised my wife I wouldn't do anything unless/until she was ready to do something. She is very unlikely to stop believing, so I'm staying put. I guess that puts me on the fence.

Placing your marriage and your wife's feelings high up on your priority list?  I can understand and respect such a stance.  I'm thinking when visited by LDS folks, you don't get all angry that you're being visited by LDS folks, unless they're acting like jerks somehow. 

 

 

[jkwilliams]

35 minutes ago, LoudmouthMormon said:

Placing your marriage and your wife's feelings high up on your priority list?  I can understand and respect such a stance.  I'm thinking when visited by LDS folks, you don't get all angry that you're being visited by LDS folks, unless they're acting like jerks somehow. 

 

 

Nobody has visited us in the 3 years we’ve been in this ward. Before Covid, we used to have the missionaries over for dinner every Wednesday, and they never upset either one of us. Several years ago, a missionary told me the reason I didn’t go to church (a period of about 8 months) was that I didn’t feel worthy, and I just needed to repent of what was making me feel unworthy. It didn’t upset me, but my son was pretty angry but didn’t say anything. He said afterward that he was surprised I didn’t tell them to leave. Meh, just overzealous youth. Nothing to get upset about. 

[Calm]

5 hours ago, Vanguard said:

They were actually converted while living in Utah! I couldn't believe it as I have rarely if ever seen this here (Riverton/Herriman area).

Utah has had one of the highest baptizing records for the Church for a long time.  When we lived in Canada, my son was called to the Ogden/Logan mission; he was initially disappointed, but really enjoyed the work. He would never have had done any tracting if one of his MP’s hadn’t insisted on it as they were always booked for appts.

I haven’t kept tabs on it for the last 15 years, so perhaps things have changed. 

Edited August 23, 2022 by Calm

[Vanguard]

1 hour ago, jkwilliams said:

Nobody has visited us in the 3 years we’ve been in this ward. Before Covid, we used to have the missionaries over for dinner every Wednesday, and they never upset either one of us. Several years ago, a missionary told me the reason I didn’t go to church (a period of about 8 months) was that I didn’t feel worthy, and I just needed to repent of what was making me feel unworthy. It didn’t upset me, but my son was pretty angry but didn’t say anything. He said afterward that he was surprised I didn’t tell them to leave. Meh, just overzealous youth. Nothing to get upset about. 

I agree with your attitude about this one missionary. : ) It's a head scratcher for me though - we have (or used to have) missionaries over all of the time and have never wrestled with these kinds of awkward conversations. It's certainly not something to be fleshed out on this board, though I wonder what would have been his introduction into commenting on whether you felt worthy or not? Good grief. 

[jkwilliams]

14 minutes ago, Vanguard said:

I agree with your attitude about this one missionary. : ) It's a head scratcher for me though - we have (or used to have) missionaries over all of the time and have never wrestled with these kinds of awkward conversations. It's certainly not something to be fleshed out on this board, though I wonder what would have been his introduction into commenting on whether you felt worthy or not? Good grief. 

As I recall l, they specifically came over to deliver that message. Maybe they felt inspired. Either way, I have no interest in discussing my personal beliefs with a teenaged stranger.