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How Bad Is the Exodus?


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As long as I can remember, some apostates have been predicting the imminent demise of the church. Everyone's leaving, and the church is rapidly collapsing, they say. I think I mentioned before that I had a long conversation with a good exmo friend years ago that we would know things had reached a "critical mass" (at least a significant number of departures) when we saw conference talks and church magazine articles about people leaving, and church discussion of the issues that are the proximate cause of questioning. Neither of us thought we'd see that for many years, but obviously, all of that has happened.

I'm not predicting a mass exodus, but I'm wondering what you guys are seeing locally. I know, it's just anecdotal, but I keep having the same experience over and over: someone I've known for years (decades, even) is now out of the church. Some examples just recently:

  • Two family members, both returned missionaries and temple married, have left the church with their spouses and children.
  • A family of 8 siblings whom I have known for a long time have all left the church.
  • A former colleague from the Church Office Building is now a Presbyterian chaplain.
  • A young woman whom we have known since she was born and who served in our area in Virginia as a missionary is now selling coffee for charity and talking about how church leaders pressured her into not reporting a ward member for abusing her for years.
  • Another COB colleague who wrote one of the hymns in the LDS hymnbook is now living happily with his also-exmormon husband.
  • A couple of missionary companions and a zone leader from my mission have recently left.
  • A good friend from my BYU days just divorced his wife, came out as gay, and left the church.

These examples are just from the last few months. I am not suggesting that my anecdotal experience is at all representative, but at least in my circles, there seems to be something happening. Am I just imagining that something has changed?

Edited by jkwilliams
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2 minutes ago, JAHS said:

Like you said, anecdotal. There may be an increase lately, but members have been leaving the church for decades. We hear about it more now because of social media. 

I'm just wondering if it's noticeable at the local level. I wouldn't know, as I pretty much stick to sacrament meeting and don't really know any of the ward members. 

ETA: When I left 15 years or so ago, I didn't know anyone personally who had left (and social media was around then, too). It's just jarring to see people I've known for so long suddenly out. 

Edited by jkwilliams
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We have a bishopric counselor who is technically active but not active-maybe he does stuff during the week I don't know but it's a rare day you see at church. We just had a Bishopric change. The new Bishop is someone I guarantee you would not be considered for the calling if there were more brethren, so I hope he gets a strong counselor as he probably won't get much mileage out of the other one. Our Stake and then our ward split last year, it's been a slog to sort out everything here and we got the temple so that's nice too. I know some people who went inactive and I think due to covid apathy has set in so that's a struggle. Two men though got reactivated so that's cool too. I'd say here the losses are made up in convert baptisms and reactivation

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25 minutes ago, jkwilliams said:

As long as I can remember, some apostates have been predicting the imminent demise of the church. Everyone's leaving, and the church is rapidly collapsing, they say. I think I mentioned before that I had a long conversation with a good exmo friend years ago that we would know things had reached a "critical mass" (at least a significant number of departures) when we saw conference talks and church magazine articles about people leaving, and church discussion of the issues that are the proximate cause of questioning. Neither of us thought we'd see that for many years, but obviously, all of that has happened.

I'm not predicting a mass exodus, but I'm wondering what you guys are seeing locally. I know, it's just anecdotal, but I keep having the same experience over and over: someone I've known for years (decades, even) is now out of the church. Some examples just recently:

  • Two family members, both returned missionaries and temple married, have left the church with their spouses and children.
  • A family of 8 siblings whom I have known for a long time have all left the church.
  • A former colleague from the Church Office Building is now a Presbyterian chaplain.
  • A young woman whom we have known since she was born and who served in our area in Virginia as a missionary is now selling coffee for charity and talking about how church leaders pressured her into not reporting a ward member for abusing her for years.
  • Another COB colleague who wrote one of the hymns in the LDS hymnbook is now living happily with his also-exmormon husband.
  • A couple of missionary companions and a zone leader from my mission have recently left.
  • A good friend from my BYU days just divorced his wife, came out as gay, and left the church.

These examples are just from the last few months. I am not suggesting that my anecdotal experience is at all representative, but at least in my circles, there seems to be something happening. Am I just imagining that something has changed?

My belief is that departures are certainly more frequent though this position is tempered by the fact that social media let's us all know and that I am more keenly aware of the dynamic than ever before. I have a growing list of former member buddies who have left. When I reconnect with anyone who has been a member I will typically ask what their status is as it has become less unlikely that the particular friend is no longer active. I have two young adult children and one teenager (15). It appears there is much more action with friends leaving the church than when I was a kid. Back then (late 70s-early 80s) the only ones leaving were more easily stereotyped as the 'problem' kiddos in the ward.

We had a stake representative speak at church last Sunday. She identified herself as a convert to the faith after having moved from California with her husband and children. They were actually converted while living in Utah! I couldn't believe it as I have rarely if ever seen this here (Riverton/Herriman area). Though our stories are anecdotal for sure, when you have a bunch of anecdotes from many people on 'both sides of the fence' report the same experiences, these anecdotes begin to take on weight. Yes, there is something afoot though I'm not yet sure what it is. 

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5 minutes ago, Vanguard said:

My belief is that departures are certainly more frequent though this position is tempered by the fact that social media let's us all know and that I am more keenly aware of the dynamic than ever before. I have a growing list of former member buddies who have left. When I reconnect with anyone who has been a member I will typically ask what their status is as it has become less unlikely that the particular friend is no longer active. I have two young adult children and one teenager (15). It appears there is much more action with friends leaving the church than when I was a kid. Back then (late 70s-early 80s) the only ones leaving were more easily stereotyped as the 'problem' kiddos in the ward.

We had a stake representative speak at church last Sunday. She identified herself as a convert to the faith after having moved from California with her husband and children. They were actually converted while living in Utah! I couldn't believe it as I have rarely if ever seen this here (Riverton/Herriman area). Though our stories are anecdotal for sure, when you have a bunch of anecdotes from many people on 'both sides of the fence' report the same experiences, these anecdotes begin to take on weight. Yes, there is something afoot though I'm not yet sure what it is. 

I was thinking another issue is that it's less socially costly to acknowledge you've left. When I left, I certainly didn't broadcast the fact on social media. I didn't tell very many people at all, and I'm sure there are some cousins who are blissfully unaware that I've left. Back then, I was an outlier, and people who did find out assumed there was something wrong with me, like I had pornography addiction or something. That social stigma seems to have diminished. Maybe that's part of it. Speaking of Herriman, one of my oldest friends is active in the church in Herriman but no longer believes. He harangued me for years about my leaving, and I refused to talk about it. I finally got frustrated and told him to do his own homework. He did. Another old friend of mine works for the church, but we went out for coffee regularly when I was living there. He says church membership is a social and business decision. 

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14 minutes ago, Vanguard said:

My belief is that departures are certainly more frequent though this position is tempered by the fact that social media let's us all know and that I am more keenly aware of the dynamic than ever before. I have a growing list of former member buddies who have left. When I reconnect with anyone who has been a member I will typically ask what their status is as it has become less unlikely that the particular friend is no longer active. I have two young adult children and one teenager (15). It appears there is much more action with friends leaving the church than when I was a kid. Back then (late 70s-early 80s) the only ones leaving were more easily stereotyped as the 'problem' kiddos in the ward.

We had a stake representative speak at church last Sunday. She identified herself as a convert to the faith after having moved from California with her husband and children. They were actually converted while living in Utah! I couldn't believe it as I have rarely if ever seen this here (Riverton/Herriman area). Though our stories are anecdotal for sure, when you have a bunch of anecdotes from many people on 'both sides of the fence' report the same experiences, these anecdotes begin to take on weight. Yes, there is something afoot though I'm not yet sure what it is. 

"Something strange is afoot at the Circle K." - Theodore 'Ted' Logan

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It definitely is much more noticeable and talked about. I personally think it is happening at a higher rate than before. However I also temper that with looking at church growth. A blog I follow is ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com which gives really good updates regarding where the church is growing and shrinking. There are still stakes being created here in Utah, as well as shrinkage happening in California, so it's a mixed bag regarding what's going on and how you want to look at it. As an active member, I see reasons to be concerned, but also reasons to not panic. There's a lot of talk about people leaving, but I think that what's overlooked is that many people decide to stay and believe. They just aren't as loud about it as those who leave

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4 minutes ago, blackstrap said:

I wonder what percentage of those leaving go full atheist and what percentage keep a belief in Christ and the gospel but drop the corporate church. 

Anecdotally my friends run the gamut from Catholic to Evangelical to agnostic to atheist. 

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16 minutes ago, boblloyd91 said:

It definitely is much more noticeable and talked about. I personally think it is happening at a higher rate than before. However I also temper that with looking at church growth. A blog I follow is ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com which gives really good updates regarding where the church is growing and shrinking. There are still stakes being created here in Utah, as well as shrinkage happening in California, so it's a mixed bag regarding what's going on and how you want to look at it. As an active member, I see reasons to be concerned, but also reasons to not panic. There's a lot of talk about people leaving, but I think that what's overlooked is that many people decide to stay and believe. They just aren't as loud about it as those who leave

I should say that I’m at a point where I have no strong feelings either way about church growth. I have just been a little surprised at the number of unexpected leave-takers I’m seeing. 

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I have seen this as well - I would like to say that it is, in-part, due to having so much access to information due to scoria media etc. so I am more aware of what people are doing in my social circle - except for the fact that so many of my antidotal examples are form my personal like, including my immediate family, children, and ward-members.

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40 minutes ago, jkwilliams said:

I was thinking another issue is that it's less socially costly to acknowledge you've left. When I left, I certainly didn't broadcast the fact on social media. I didn't tell very many people at all, and I'm sure there are some cousins who are blissfully unaware that I've left. Back then, I was an outlier, and people who did find out assumed there was something wrong with me, like I had pornography addiction or something. That social stigma seems to have diminished. Maybe that's part of it. Speaking of Herriman, one of my oldest friends is active in the church in Herriman but no longer believes. He harangued me for years about my leaving, and I refused to talk about it. I finally got frustrated and told him to do his own homework. He did. Another old friend of mine works for the church, but we went out for coffee regularly when I was living there. He says church membership is a social and business decision. 

It took me several years to tell people, other than a small group. Definitely not easy when you live in a community with a strong LDS influence.

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I know of no members who had been active who have left, either in my current ward or my social sphere.  I do know of some people who have left but it's been years now.

I know of one member family (two adults with two little kids, a preschooler and infant) who recently asked to have their names removed, but they have lived in the ward for about 3 years now I think and had never been to church the entire time.  So I can't say if their formal resignation equals a loss of once active members or not.

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47 minutes ago, boblloyd91 said:

A blog I follow is ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com which gives really good updates regarding where the church is growing and shrinking.

Good blog.  I love raw data!

New Stakes in 2022: 22
Discontinued Stakes in 2022: 9

New Stakes in 2021: 43
Discontinued Stakes in 2021: 9

New Stakes in 2020: 30
Discontinued Stakes in 2020: 3

 

I also like the total number of members of record tracked over time.  Not sure where to get the latest data, but the last I heard, we're still growing, but the rate of growth has been slowing for a while, and these years we're barely growing at all.  In other words, we're doing far better than most of the rest of Christianity.

 

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Just now, Rivers said:

If the exodus is really that bad, why are so many temples being announced still?  Is temple building any indication of the church’s strength in numbers?

I have no idea. I remember the church building more than 50 chapels in Bolivia when I was a missionary. It was surprising because the existing chapels were practically empty. 

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16 minutes ago, bluebell said:

I know of one member family (two adults with two little kids, a preschooler and infant) who recently asked to have their names removed, but they have lived in the ward for about 3 years now I think and had never been to church the entire time.  So I can't say if their formal resignation equals a loss of once active members or not.

I wonder if people are having their names removed more frequently as opposed to quietly going inactive.

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2 minutes ago, Rivers said:

If the exodus is really that bad, why are so many temples being announced still?  Is temple building any indication of the church’s strength in numbers?

It's absolutely an indication of the church's strength in dollars.  New temples get built in places where there's enough active tithe-payers to fund and maintain it (even if the area it serves is very large).  

I wonder - other than Kirtland or maybe a natural disaster, have we ever discontinued a temple?

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2 minutes ago, jkwilliams said:

I have no idea. I remember the church building more than 50 chapels in Bolivia when I was a missionary. It was surprising because the existing chapels were practically empty. 

Maybe they were thinking, “If you build them, they will come.”

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Nearly every friend I have had in the past 20 years who were active during our friendship no longer participates. In fact, I can only think of a few close friends from the past couple decades who still do. At least 5 elders quorum presidents I have had from that period no longer attend. (Funny story: the last EQP I had (9 years ago) basically initiated the events that led to me no longer participating by complaining to our bishop about me. A few months ago I got a message from him out of the blue, wherein he told me that he had made the decision to leave the Church and apologized to me for what he had done. "Looking back I realize you were just trying to help us become better, but I was too full of myself to see that." Now he's apparently creating a website for people to share their testimonies about leaving, or something like that.) In the past couple months a few of my cousins told me they and their spouses no longer go. In addition, I know several people who were once very active and believing who now only attend because of their employment (Church or BYU).

This, of course, is all anecdotal and may say more about me and the types of persons I like to associate with (except for those EQPs, obviously). For pretty much all of my friends it wasn't access to information or history issues that led to them no longer attending, but rather that the Church did almost nothing for them. They found it boring, uninspiring, harmful at times, etc., and they dropped any sense that Church leaders had any particular moral authority over them. If Church history had any role, it was just that the dissolution of simplistic and official narratives meant they no longer felt bound to keep going.

Edited by the narrator
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2 minutes ago, Rivers said:

Maybe they were thinking, “If you build them, they will come.”

You beat me to the Field of Dreams explanation. I think it's a combination of that and the belief that if members were able to participate in the temple more often that they would be less likely to leave.

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2 minutes ago, Rivers said:

I wonder if people are having their names removed more frequently as opposed to quietly going inactive.

Over the years, the church has surely made it easier to remove names.  And there are no shortage of online resources offering help going through the name removal process.  

I remember going on splits with the bishopric a decade ago, visiting all the inactives and do-not-contact folks.  The evening ended with two or three good visits, and half a dozen people not happy to see us.  We explained their names were still on our records, and if they didn't want contact, the way to guarantee it was to have their name removed - just sign the letter and mail your request in.  Half a dozen people (some angry) all said they'd do it.  6 months later, no letters had arrived.    After the visits, one of the counselors wryly quipped "Look, here's a tithing slip and here's a name removal form.  Stop sitting on the fence and send us one or the other." 

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