A Simple Question on God's One True Church

[Fair Dinkum]

I Propose an Experiment:

Abstract:

Find the Real True Church, if one really exists, on the earth.

Method:  Take a Random Representative Sample of the Earths Population and Ask each of them to Find God's One True Church.  Based on the current world population of 7.97 billion, we would need a responding sample size of 2,401 random individuals willing to participate in searching for God's One True Church.  This would give us a margin of error of + or - 2% with a 95% confidence in the results.

So here is my question:  Assuming this experiment was executed, how many of these random respondents would conclude that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, was God's one true Church?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say less than .00001% would conclude that the LDS Church is God's one true church and based on our sample size that = 0

So two more questions:

If the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints IS God's one true church on the face of the earth...why is it so freaking difficult to discover and once discovered why is it so freaking difficult to believe in once found?  Surely the God of the universe could have found a more productive way to share His Truths with his beloved children.  Heck I can come up with a better distribution process and I'm definitely no God.

Edited August 12, 2022 by Fair Dinkum

[InCognitus]

27 minutes ago, Fair Dinkum said:

I Propose an Experiment:

Abstract:

Find the Real True Church, if one really exists, on the earth.

Method:  Take a Random Representative Sample of the Earths Population and Ask each of them to Find God's One True Church.  Based on the current world population of 7.97 billion, we would need a responding sample size of 2,401 random individuals willing to participate in searching for God's One True Church.  This would give us a margin of error of + or - 2% with a 95% confidence in the results.

So here is my question:  Assuming this experiment was executed, how many of these random respondents would conclude that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, was God's one true Church?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say less than .00001% would conclude that the LDS Church is God's one true church and based on our sample size that = 0

So two more questions:

If the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints IS God's one true church on the face of the earth...why is it so freaking difficult to discover and once discovered why is it so freaking difficult to believe in once found?  Surely the God of the universe could have found a more productive way to share His Truths with his beloved children.  Heck I can come up with a better distribution process and I'm definitely no God.

The experiment is flawed from the start, because a good percentage of the people you enlist would question the premise of the experiment.   i.e. "There is no God".  Or, "There is a God but there's no such thing as God's One True Church".  

The problem comes because people aren't willing to do the experiment to begin with.  They think they already know what they need to know.

Edited August 12, 2022 by InCognitus

[Fair Dinkum]

Quote

Method:  Take a Random Representative Sample of the Earths Population and Ask each of them to Find God's One True Church.  Based on the current world population of 7.97 billion, we would need a responding sample size of 2,401 random individuals willing to participate in searching for God's One True Church.  This would give us a margin of error of + or - 2% with a 95% confidence in the results.

Au contraire mon frere.

[SeekingUnderstanding]

1 hour ago, Fair Dinkum said:

I'm going to go out on a limb and say less than .00001% would conclude that the LDS Church is God's one true church and based on our sample size that = 0

So one in 10 million individuals believe the church is what it claims to be? 8 billion total people alive. This gives 800 total people that believe the church’s truth claims?

[webbles]

1 hour ago, Fair Dinkum said:

If the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints IS God's one true church on the face of the earth...why is it so freaking difficult to discover and once discovered why is it so freaking difficult to believe in once found?  Surely the God of the universe could have found a more productive way to share His Truths with his beloved children.  Heck I can come up with a better distribution process and I'm definitely no God.

I think He has a really productive way.  By the time we all get judged, we'll all have learned of it and known of it.  I believe the vast majority will have accepted His church by then.  I know you are focusing on the "true church on Earth" but God isn't just focusing on the mortal probation but the entire probation up until the judgment day.

[bluebell]

1 hour ago, Fair Dinkum said:

I Propose an Experiment:

Abstract:

Find the Real True Church, if one really exists, on the earth.

Method:  Take a Random Representative Sample of the Earths Population and Ask each of them to Find God's One True Church.  Based on the current world population of 7.97 billion, we would need a responding sample size of 2,401 random individuals willing to participate in searching for God's One True Church.  This would give us a margin of error of + or - 2% with a 95% confidence in the results.

So here is my question:  Assuming this experiment was executed, how many of these random respondents would conclude that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, was God's one true Church?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say less than .00001% would conclude that the LDS Church is God's one true church and based on our sample size that = 0

So two more questions:

If the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints IS God's one true church on the face of the earth...why is it so freaking difficult to discover and once discovered why is it so freaking difficult to believe in once found?  Surely the God of the universe could have found a more productive way to share His Truths with his beloved children.  Heck I can come up with a better distribution process and I'm definitely no God.

If all that God cared about was that people knew which church He wanted them to join, He could just visit each person and tell them. 

[DT_]

2 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

  Surely the God of the universe could have found a more productive way to share His Truths with his beloved children.

It's DMT apparently. Perhaps LDS missionaries should encourage investigators who read the Book of Mormon to try DMT. The DMT drug seems to be very successful in converting people. The DMT experience may be a hallucination, but there is no doubt it's a life-changing experience for many. 

23 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

So one in 10 million individuals believe the church is what it claims to be? 8 billion total people alive. This gives 800 total people that believe the church’s truth claims?

We'll never know how many people believe in the church. 

Edited August 12, 2022 by DT_

[Durangout]

2 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

I Propose an Experiment:

Abstract:

Find the Real True Church, if one really exists, on the earth.

Method:  Take a Random Representative Sample of the Earths Population and Ask each of them to Find God's One True Church.  Based on the current world population of 7.97 billion, we would need a responding sample size of 2,401 random individuals willing to participate in searching for God's One True Church.  This would give us a margin of error of + or - 2% with a 95% confidence in the results.

So here is my question:  Assuming this experiment was executed, how many of these random respondents would conclude that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, was God's one true Church?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say less than .00001% would conclude that the LDS Church is God's one true church and based on our sample size that = 0

So two more questions:

If the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints IS God's one true church on the face of the earth...why is it so freaking difficult to discover and once discovered why is it so freaking difficult to believe in once found?  Surely the God of the universe could have found a more productive way to share His Truths with his beloved children.  Heck I can come up with a better distribution process and I'm definitely no God.

Your view of eternity is very limited.

[SeekingUnderstanding]

22 minutes ago, DT_ said:

We'll never know how many people believe in the church. 

We can do a lot better than the OP. The church claims around 16 million members which gives an upper bound of 2 true believers per 1,000. Factor in an activity rate world wide of 33 percent and reduce again by half for nuanced believers (who don’t agree with “One true church”) leaves 2.6 million True believers as a potential lower bound. That’s about 0.3 true believers per thousand people in the world. 

[Nofear]

2 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

So two more questions:

If the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints IS God's one true church on the face of the earth...why is it so freaking difficult to discover and once discovered why is it so freaking difficult to believe in once found?  Surely the God of the universe could have found a more productive way to share His Truths with his beloved children.  Heck I can come up with a better distribution process and I'm definitely no God.

For me, because the purposes of life for the vast majority of humanity are met during mortality without being a member of the Church. I quite suspect that is partly because the Gospel is so "freaking difficult" to believe and accept by most people.

[HappyJackWagon]

16 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

We can do a lot better than the OP. The church claims around 16 million members which gives an upper bound of 2 true believers per 1,000. Factor in an activity rate world wide of 33 percent and reduce again by half for nuanced believers (who don’t agree with “One true church”) leaves 2.6 million True believers as a potential lower bound. That’s about 0.3 true believers per thousand people in the world. 

It feels like Fair Dinkum's post is being maligned unfairly. Sure, the math may not quite add up BUT I wonder what would happen if we removed children from that equation. I don't know that under 18's would be counted in a survey like this.

But the point of the post seems like it could have a point. There are an awful lot of people throughout the history of the world who never heard the gospel (while living) so the question about the efficiency of the mode of communication seems fair to me. Not to say there may not be reasons for it, but just from a communications perspective one may have to wonder about the efficacy of the communication model.

[mfbukowski]

2 hours ago, InCognitus said:

The experiment is flawed from the start, because a good percentage of the people you enlist would question the premise of the experiment.   i.e. "There is no God".  Or, "There is a God but there's no such thing as God's One True Church".  

The problem comes because people aren't willing to do the experiment to begin with.  They think they already know what they need to know.

Yep!

The whole notion is absurd, tying to find the "TRUE CHURCH" through an opinion poll.

Thanks to all the teachers that are here to help others

I can't do it anymore 

 

Edited August 12, 2022 by mfbukowski

[teddyaware]

2 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

I Propose an Experiment:

Abstract:

Find the Real True Church, if one really exists, on the earth.

Method:  Take a Random Representative Sample of the Earths Population and Ask each of them to Find God's One True Church.  Based on the current world population of 7.97 billion, we would need a responding sample size of 2,401 random individuals willing to participate in searching for God's One True Church.  This would give us a margin of error of + or - 2% with a 95% confidence in the results.

So here is my question:  Assuming this experiment was executed, how many of these random respondents would conclude that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, was God's one true Church?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say less than .00001% would conclude that the LDS Church is God's one true church and based on our sample size that = 0

So two more questions:

If the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints IS God's one true church on the face of the earth...why is it so freaking difficult to discover and once discovered why is it so freaking difficult to believe in once found?  Surely the God of the universe could have found a more productive way to share His Truths with his beloved children.  Heck I can come up with a better distribution process and I'm definitely no God.

In light of the fact that the Book of Mormon stipulates that the only way one can know of its divine authenticity is to first diligently read, study and ponder its pages, and then follow up that intensive reading by imploring God with great faith, humility and sincerity to reveal to you by the power of the Holy Ghost whether or not it’s true, it appears the criteria you’ve established for your test are so far off base as to amount to nothing less than an absurd exercise in futility.

Edited August 12, 2022 by teddyaware

[bluebell]

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

It feels like Fair Dinkum's post is being maligned unfairly. Sure, the math may not quite add up BUT I wonder what would happen if we removed children from that equation. I don't know that under 18's would be counted in a survey like this.

But the point of the post seems like it could have a point. There are an awful lot of people throughout the history of the world who never heard the gospel (while living) so the question about the efficiency of the mode of communication seems fair to me. Not to say there may not be reasons for it, but just from a communications perspective one may have to wonder about the efficacy of the communication model.

Is anyone arguing that the communication model is efficient though?

[Fair Dinkum]

1 hour ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

We can do a lot better than the OP. The church claims around 16 million members which gives an upper bound of 2 true believers per 1,000. Factor in an activity rate world wide of 33 percent and reduce again by half for nuanced believers (who don’t agree with “One true church”) leaves 2.6 million True believers as a potential lower bound. That’s about 0.3 true believers per thousand people in the world. 

Yup the .0001% was an error thanks for your astuteness.  The math behind the method sample was not. 

[Fair Dinkum]

1 hour ago, mfbukowski said:

Yep!

The whole notion is absurd, tying to find the "TRUE CHURCH" through an opinion poll.

Thanks to all the teachers that are here to help others

I can't do it anymore 

 

My point is: If you charged a random sample of human beings to find God’s one true church, how many would settle on Mormonism?  I’m guessing none of em

[ttribe]

1 hour ago, teddyaware said:

In light of the fact that the Book of Mormon stipulates that the only way one can know of its divine authenticity is to first diligently read, study and ponder its pages, and then follow up that intensive reading by imploring God with great faith, humility and sincerity to reveal to you by the power of the Holy Ghost whether or not it’s true, it appears the criteria you’ve established for your test are so far off base as to amount to nothing less than an absurd exercise in futility.

With defenders like this, even the most ardent critics really don't need to do a thing to convince people to leave the church. Teddy, et al., will do that all on their own.

[DT_]

2 hours ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

We can do a lot better than the OP. The church claims around 16 million members which gives an upper bound of 2 true believers per 1,000. Factor in an activity rate world wide of 33 percent and reduce again by half for nuanced believers (who don’t agree with “One true church”) leaves 2.6 million True believers as a potential lower bound. That’s about 0.3 true believers per thousand people in the world. 

It's a good estimate. I like it.

[InCognitus]

33 minutes ago, Fair Dinkum said:

My point is: If you charged a random sample of human beings to find God’s one true church, how many would settle on Mormonism?  I’m guessing none of em

I'm guessing about 33% of them (based on statistics from the parable of the find the true church experiment in the New Testament).   And my experiment bias trumps your experiment bias.  So there  

[longview]

11 minutes ago, Fair Dinkum said:

My point is: If you charged a random sample of human beings to find God’s one true church, how many would settle on Mormonism?  I’m guessing none of em

If the sample is to be truly "random" you would need to divide the world into maybe a thousand sectors.  Each sector will need a staff to be able to "interview" those that are willing to participate in the initial screening process.  The interviews will need to weed out those that are underaged, mentally incapacitated, that are not fanatically bonded to the "religion of their fathers" (such as moslems, hindoos, communists), etc.  The participants would also have to agree to embark on a lengthy process of searching out as many religions as they are capable for a sufficient interval (say six months).

I could go on for several more paragraphs of difficulties and hurdles.  I seriously doubt your sample size of 2401 would be meaningful for the world as a whole.  I have a bachelor of science in math with a couple of courses in statistics.  Your proposal is chock full of logistical problems and will fail due to excess of unmanageable parameters.  Here are the minimum requirements:  https://www.qualtrics.com/experience-management/research/determine-sample-size/

[smac97]

4 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

I Propose an Experiment:

Abstract:

Find the Real True Church, if one really exists, on the earth.

How would you propose to empirically establish this proposition?  

4 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

Method:  Take a Random Representative Sample of the Earths Population and Ask each of them to Find God's One True Church.  Based on the current world population of 7.97 billion, we would need a responding sample size of 2,401 random individuals willing to participate in searching for God's One True Church.  This would give us a margin of error of + or - 2% with a 95% confidence in the results.

How do you arrive at "a 95% confidence in the results?"

What methodology would these "random individuals" use "in searching for God's One True Church?"

Is that methodology empirically testable/verifiable?

4 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

So here is my question:  Assuming this experiment was executed, how many of these random respondents would conclude that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, was God's one true Church?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say less than .00001% would conclude that the LDS Church is God's one true church and based on our sample size that = 0

Ascertaining "God's One True Church" is, for you, a popularity contest?

4 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

So two more questions:

If the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints IS God's one true church on the face of the earth...why is it so freaking difficult to discover

You presuppose that which has yet to be demonstrated (the "freaking difficult to discover" part).

That said, living in our ever-increasingly-interconnected world means that we are exposed to a cacophony of voices and influences.  The "still small voice" can be drowned out if you let it.

4 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

and once discovered why is it so freaking difficult to believe in once found? 

I don't think being a Latter-day Saint is particularly difficult.  It's more a matter of faith, of individual commitment, self-determination, choice, etc.

I returned from my mission to Taiwan in April 1995 (I had spent 18 months before that on active duty training in the Army, so I was gone nearly four years altogether).  A few days after I arrived home, I traveled to Ivins (close to St. George) with my parents and grandmother to attend the dedication of a private liberal arts high school (Tuacahn, which has since apparently become a charter school).  The Mormon Tabernacle Choir had been invited to perform at the dedication, and President Hinckley had been invited to give the dedicatory prayer.  My dad was in the Choir at the time, so we traveled down with him.  

The dedication ceremony took place on April 8, a Saturday, in the school's outdoor amphitheater.  It was a pretty sight, but it was also quite cold and windy.  I sat in the audience seats with my mother and grandmother and chatted with them for about 45 minutes prior to the beginning of the program.  During this time the amphitheater filled up with people (it seats about 2000).  The Choir was already on the stage, and they were looking miserable.  They were all covered in blankets because of the cold, and the wind was blowing the ladies' hair and the men's comb-overs all over the place.

Then, a few minutes before the scheduled start time of the program, everyone in the audience began standing up.  As there had been no announcement asking us to stand, I surmised that President Hinckley had arrived and that the audience was standing as an expression of respect.  I took the cue and stood up along with everyone else and started looking for President Hinckley.  Sure enough, he had entered the stage area from the left side and was walking across the dais to the seating area.  He stopped in front of the Choir and said something to them that made them laugh (my Dad later told me that he had said something like this (keep in mind they were looking messy and were covered in blankets): "Wow, brothers and sisters, you look like one great big unmade bed!").  He then proceeded to the seating area and sat down, and a few minutes later the program started.

I don't remember much of the program, but I do remember the experience I had in that moment while President Hinckley was crossing the stage.  At that moment I received a clear, discernible impression - from what must have been the Spirit - that I was in the presence of a prophet.  Of *the* prophet.  Although this was one of those "still small voice" experiences you hear about, I was surprised at how emphatic and clear it was.  There I was one moment, with my hands and ears growing numb from the cold (keep in mind I had just finished spending two years in tropical Taiwan - so I was not yet acclimated to the cold), making small talk with my mother and grandmother, and the next moment I was standing and being enveloped in a strong feeling, an impression of marked clarity.

As you may have guessed, this experience, although not entirely unique (I had spiritual experiences both before it, and have had many since), had a strong impact on me and my thinking about my perspective on the Church.  In a way, this experience functioned to strength the cumulative spiritual witness of the Book of Mormon I worked on in my youth, while in the Army, on my mission, etc.  It altered my presuppositions, which became very useful in the ensuing years, as pretty much ever since I have been studying the Restored Gospel, mostly in the "you gotta walk the walk, not just talk the talk" way of things, but also via the "best books" kind of way referenced in the Doctrine & Covenants.  I also regularly re-examine what I believe and why, often by subjecting my beliefs to a sort of "stress test" involving listening to what critics have to say about this or that, and also by grappling with more organic challenges to my faith. 

When all is said and done, though, I have thrown my lot in with the Restored Gospel because I have received a spiritual witness that it is what it claims to be.  As with most things, a testimony cannot be a static, immutable thing.  It must be maintained, strengthened and expanded.  

4 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

Surely the God of the universe could have found a more productive way to share His Truths with his beloved children. 

That's an endlessly regressive bit of second-guessing.  

4 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

Heck I can come up with a better distribution process and I'm definitely no God.

Agency, missionary work, temple work, etc. all go a long way in helping me repose faith in the notion that God knows what He is doing.

Thanks,

-Smac

[Calm]

2 hours ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

nuanced believers (who don’t agree with “One true church”)

What do you mean by this and also the division between these and “ true believers”? I don’t believe in how many Saints define “one true church”, but I am a devout believer in the one true and living Church with which the Lord was and hopefully still is well pleased, speaking collectively.

[carbon dioxide]

6 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

I Propose an Experiment:

Abstract:

Find the Real True Church, if one really exists, on the earth.

Method:  Take a Random Representative Sample of the Earths Population and Ask each of them to Find God's One True Church.  Based on the current world population of 7.97 billion, we would need a responding sample size of 2,401 random individuals willing to participate in searching for God's One True Church.  This would give us a margin of error of + or - 2% with a 95% confidence in the results.

So here is my question:  Assuming this experiment was executed, how many of these random respondents would conclude that The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, was God's one true Church?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say less than .00001% would conclude that the LDS Church is God's one true church and based on our sample size that = 0

So two more questions:

If the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints IS God's one true church on the face of the earth...why is it so freaking difficult to discover and once discovered why is it so freaking difficult to believe in once found?  Surely the God of the universe could have found a more productive way to share His Truths with his beloved children.  Heck I can come up with a better distribution process and I'm definitely no God.

First, God's true church is decide by God.  Not by a vote or popularity of the people. 

Second, when has God's true church every been that big in world history.  Whether in Noah time or Moses time or any other time in the scriptures, the people of God have always been a very small minority. 

Third, God perspective is different than ours.  His view of the Church extends into the spirit world.  There the church is very big.  God looks at the the whole picture.  Add all the people who died before the age of accountability, with those who would have received the gospel in life but did not get the chance, with the the few that actually joined the church, the numbers who actually were a part of the Church, the church as a whole is pretty big. 

Even with all of that, the scriptures say that those who inherit the Telestial kingdom number as the sands of the sea in D&C 76:109.   The problem is not really with access to the gospel.  The access is there at least in many countries in the world.  The problem is people choosing not to accept it for various reasons.   That is on them.  The true church of God does not bend and change its doctrines and positions to maximize the number of converts.  It does not seek to become popular.  Sure the LDS Church could remove a lot of doctrines and practices to push the convert rates up like rejecting the word of wisdom but is that really how the true church operates?

 

 

Edited August 12, 2022 by carbon dioxide

[HappyJackWagon]

1 hour ago, bluebell said:

Is anyone arguing that the communication model is efficient though?

Maybe not, but I'd be surprised.

I think most members who think and talk about God's perfect plan would suggest that God's Pattern (speaking through prophets) is the ideal.

[MiserereNobis]

1 hour ago, teddyaware said:

In light of the fact that the Book of Mormon stipulates that the only way one can know of its divine authenticity is to first diligently read, study and ponder its pages, and then follow up that intensive reading by imploring God with great faith, humility and sincerity to reveal to you by the power of the Holy Ghost whether or not it’s true, it appears the criteria you’ve established for your test are so far off base as to amount to nothing less than an absurd exercise in futility.

This seems like a overly simplified answer. Most people wouldn't do this not because they are anti-Mormon, but because they're just not interested. How much time have you spent intensively studying with great faith, humility, and sincerity other religions to see if they are true?