Covid cases, hospitalizations, death trends and other touchy subjects…

[Calm]

This is the thread for the data on infections and such that tell us more about people than about the disease…go easy on the politics solely because of board rules.

Personal stories of friends or neighbors are welcomed here as well.

Iow, this thread is for the impulses, rants, and hot topics I keep asking not to be posted.  I am not putting any limits on it save keep to board rules, so Nemesis might still be banning if you risk political commentary or personal attacks.

I figure with surges and school starting people need to vent and it will take over the other thread eventually…that makes too much work for Nemesis.  Do try to be kind or at least civil.  If not, you have to be clever.  Boring, judgmental comments…do we ever need more of those?  

[The Nehor]

A repost from the other thread since I did not know this one existed and a good way to start this thread with morbid doomsaying.

Here is what is going on in my state.

 

 

 

 

I also just chatted with a friend who does hospital IT in central Florida. All the hospitals he works with are at Code Black and he is segregated fully due to Covid. Resources are stretched to the edge and he said 2-3 healthcare workers are quitting per day in the whole system. Most of them nurses and nursing assistants. The new cases and hospitalizations per day have been decreasing but even if we are already at the peak of this wave it won’t help the hospitals much. Many of the people there now for Covid will be there for another month or more so it will take a lot of time to start freeing up beds faster than new cases need them.

Florida is being hit harder than Texas but Texas may close the gap soon. Several other nearby states are also wrestling with tight demands on their own hospitals so they are likely to be unable to take overflow cases.

The sad reality is that we can expect the fatality rate to go up in Florida as patients get less treatment. Possibly the same in Texas soon.

Two more people I know have Covid. One is a kid who turned 18 a few weeks back who wanted the vaccine but his parents feared it was dangerous. His symptoms are not severe yet but this means the parents and his brother are likely to end up getting it.

The other is less likely to survive and may leave orphaned children.

[Calm]

Your post in that one motivated me to start this one because I was thinking useful information, but there may be some who want to debate the numbers or who see this kind of stuff as leading to political because talking about why it is happening or how to prevent reoccurrence involves government.

In other words, there was a good reason you didn’t know it existed….

[Metis_LDS]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/07/top-scientists-remain-puzzled-covid-spreads/

WARNING feel free NOT to read the above as I found it stressful because it explains the problems science is having.

[Calm]

Can’t read it as I don’t sign up for stuff unless I have to. 
 

So just got the first few lines. 
 

Why do you believe anyone would be shocked to learn the scientists haven’t figured out everything about a novel virus in a year and a half?

We were told when my daughter was diagnosed with diabetes that it would be likely 5 years and they would be moving into transplants being available for those not on immunosuppressant drugs. It has now been over 15 and still no sign last I looked. They have been dissecting donated brains and running studies on my disorder for 25 years and they still don’t know what is going on, is it dopamine or something else. 

Science takes time to find solutions. Sometimes we get lucky as in new vaccine technology was available to speed up a Covid vaccine. If it had happened a few years earlier, it would have been a significantly longer wait. 

Edited August 8, 2021 by Calm

[Metis_LDS]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

Why do you believe anyone would be shocked to learn the scientists haven’t figured out everything about a novel virus in a year and a half?

Here is a quote from the article about studies to see if the virus lives in the air or if is only spread by being close by to an infected person.    

“The whole field is plagued by poor quality studies, by ideology-driven sweeping statements that cannot be backed up by science,” said Professor Tom Jefferson, of Oxford University, one of the authors on the review."                                                                                                                                             So yes when so many people are suffering and also dying I feel stressed by statements like this.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Metis_LDS
clarity

[Warlock]

7 hours ago, Calm said:

This is the thread for the data on infections and such that tell us more about people than about the disease…go easy on the politics solely because of board rules.

Personal stories of friends or neighbors are welcomed here as well.

Iow, this thread is for the impulses, rants, and hot topics I keep asking not to be posted.  I am not putting any limits on it save keep to board rules, so Nemesis might still be banning if you risk political commentary or personal attacks.

I figure with surges and school starting people need to vent and it will take over the other thread eventually…that makes too much work for Nemesis.  Do try to be kind or at least civil.  If not, you have to be clever.  Boring, judgmental comments…do we ever need more of those?  

I have many friends with ongoing side effects after receiving the second dose. 

 

[bsjkki]

I’ve been comparing state statistics. It will be interesting to see as Delta moves through each state how light vs heavy mitigation efforts affect outcomes. During the last year, it doesn’t seem to have mattered that much. We will then see how vaccination rates affect outcomes too. In Colorado, vaccination rates have already produced statistical differences. 

The vaccine effectiveness statistics are confusing. In Colorado, one county has an effectiveness that is less than others. Is this do to lower vaccination rates? Or, is it showing how the Delta variant acts? Can the higher vaccination rates stop Delta or is just a matter of time? 
https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-significantly-higher-in-mesa-county-than-other-colorado-counties

 

[BlueDreams]

1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

I’ve been comparing state statistics. It will be interesting to see as Delta moves through each state how light vs heavy mitigation efforts affect outcomes. During the last year, it doesn’t seem to have mattered that much. We will then see how vaccination rates affect outcomes too. In Colorado, vaccination rates have already produced statistical differences. 

The vaccine effectiveness statistics are confusing. In Colorado, one county has an effectiveness that is less than others. Is this do to lower vaccination rates? Or, is it showing how the Delta variant acts? Can the higher vaccination rates stop Delta or is just a matter of time? 
https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-significantly-higher-in-mesa-county-than-other-colorado-counties

 

I'm guessing here. But I think you're on the right track with lower vaccinations. Usually the more vaccinations you have the more the virus would have to rely on transmitting through breakthrough cases. This drastically slows the rate of transmission. It's like a free flowing river v. a dammed one...impediments in the river will slow the flow. So higher rates of vaccines reduce the free flow of the virus, protect to some degree the unvax'd who can't be. But also the vax'd from repeat exposure to the disease, testing the veracity of the immune response repetitively. From what I was finding in other colorado counties that are low in vaccination rates is that none of the others have a population over 10K. Which means you're likely getting more dispersed populations that will naturally have less contact with people in their day. So this is basically, social distancing via environment. Mesa county isn't that. It's population is closer to 150K with a little under half of that situated in one city. Meaning you're going to get more contact with people on your day-to-day, the majority of which are not vaccinated. Plus they're en route to several tourist destinations, meaning their population likely gets large influxes during the summer (which may be why they were the first place to get delta in CO). Their flow will be more rapid due to both a bigger stream and fewer impediments as well as a longer exposure to a more virulent strain. 

 

with luv,

BD

Edited August 8, 2021 by BlueDreams

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, Warlock said:

I have many friends with ongoing side effects after receiving the second dose. 

I doubt those are tied to the vaccine.

1 hour ago, Warlock said:

I have many friends

I admit I have a few doubts there too.

 

This vaccine delivery method is not new. There can be and are side-effects but not long-term ones. If you get side effects they have virtually always hit within one month or they just don’t happen. These vaccines flush out of the body very quickly. They train the body to fight a spike protein and they are gone. There are very very rare reactions that can cause severe problems and, in rare cases, death. Again, those don’t show up months later.

Please don’t spread misinformation.

[Chum]

12 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

These vaccines flush out of the body very quickly.

This is true. mRNA has a half-life of several minutes and vaccine components are gone within a day or so of administration. What we experience afterward is healthy immune response.

[bsjkki]

I have a friend who has long term side effects of the vaccine. He used to be a member of this board. Studies linguistics. He keeps everyone updated on his progress on Facebook. He traveled from out of country to receive the vaccine. Not a skeptic at all.

His health has deteriorated.

[Harry T. Clark]

Here is what is going on in Israel right now:  https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/israel-where-90-of-the-adult-population-is-fully-vaccinated-severe-cases-spike-to-324-of-which-209-are-fully-vaccinated/

90% are vaccinated and 209 of the 324 cases counted as severe are among the vaccinated. 

Perhaps the RNA vaccine doesn't work?  Perhaps the attenuated model should have been followed?  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7267670/pdf/EMI-9999-na.pdf

It seems those exposed have long-lasting immunity:

https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2

This study concludes that "effective immunity may persist long-term in recovered COVID-19 patients."

More reason to rethink our response.

https://www.sartorius.com/en/applications/biopharmaceutical-manufacturing/vaccines/vaccine-development/attenuated-inactivated-vaccines

Edited August 8, 2021 by Harry T. Clark

[Chum]

State pols really like to compete with other states; maybe that's why FL is leading the US in fresh Covid infections.

Also

I have a theory that our state pols are confusing this tiny virus with freshly fertilized eggs and feel compelled to protect them at any cost - are driven to make sure they reach their full multi variant potential.

[Chum]

22 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

I have a friend who has long term side effects of the vaccine. He used to be a member of this board. Studies linguistics. He keeps everyone updated on his progress on Facebook. He traveled from out of country to receive the vaccine. Not a skeptic at all.

His health has deteriorated.

It would seem vaccine history teaches us that outlying, post vaccine side effects are the same effects that would follow an actual infection - just to a much less degree.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Chum

[Rain]

This, Brother Renlund's talk, may seem off topic, but listening to it this morning I realize that it goes with so much of what happens with people and covid and may be a help to others as it was to me.  

 

Infuriating Unfairness

Edited August 8, 2021 by Rain

[The Nehor]

15 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Here is what is going on in Israel right now:  https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/israel-where-90-of-the-adult-population-is-fully-vaccinated-severe-cases-spike-to-324-of-which-209-are-fully-vaccinated/

90% are vaccinated and 209 of the 324 cases counted as severe are among the vaccinated. 

Perhaps the RNA vaccine doesn't work?  Perhaps the attenuated model should have been followed?  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7267670/pdf/EMI-9999-na.pdf

It seems those exposed have long-lasting immunity:

https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2

This study concludes that "effective immunity may persist long-term in recovered COVID-19 patients."

More reason to rethink our response.

https://www.sartorius.com/en/applications/biopharmaceutical-manufacturing/vaccines/vaccine-development/attenuated-inactivated-vaccines

No. Your first link is to a site that loves conspiracies and is not news. It is a mish-mash of junk. Israel is dealing with the same wave a lot of the world is dealing with but despite a largely expected number of breakthrough cases death numbers are very low. 324 severe cases in a nation with Israel’s population is better than most. The vaccine is working.

There is no need to change gears. Changing gears would probably get more people killed.

[SeekingUnderstanding]

33 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

90% are vaccinated and 209 of the 324 cases counted as severe are among the vaccinated. 

Perhaps the RNA vaccine doesn't work? 

So on its face that number says that the unvaccinated have 3.5 times the risk since they are way over represented. Add in the fact that the most at risk populations get vaccinated at higher rates, and that 3.5 number likely approaches the 10-20x efficacy reported elsewhere. Thanks for the confirming data!

[BlueDreams]

I've known only one person who may have had side effects that lasted longer than a week from the vaccine. And she has several health issues...a couple that lead to overreactive autoimmune responses. So it wasn't unexpected. I've known far more who've had long-term covid or new chronic health issues because they got covid. I don't mind pointing out that vaccines may have side effects...and that for a rare few this may be more chronic or severe. But what drives me nuts about pointing them out is that the many many many more detrimental effects from covid are usually not maintained in balance. One is FARRRRRRRRRRRRRRR more of a gamble. And it ain't the vaccine

 

With luv,

BD

 

 

[Harry T. Clark]

24 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

So on its face that number says that the unvaccinated have 3.5 times the risk since they are way over represented. Add in the fact that the most at risk populations get vaccinated at higher rates, and that 3.5 number likely approaches the 10-20x efficacy reported elsewhere. Thanks for the confirming data!

Perhaps so, however, the data could mean that the vaccine isn't working as well as originally thought.  The N.Y. Times has an article that asks this question that we all should be asking.  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/science/covid-vaccine-israel-pfizer.html

Are the mRNA vaccines really safe and effective?  Clearly it is possible that the pharmaceutical companies can make mistakes that don't appear immediately.  Vioxx was approved by the FDA and had to be recalled because it was causing heart problems.  Some vaccines don't work as well as others and have to be refined over time.  Perhaps going with a new technology was a mistake?

[The Nehor]

1 minute ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Are the mRNA vaccines really safe and effective?  Clearly it is possible that the pharmaceutical companies can make mistakes that don't appear immediately.  Vioxx was approved by the FDA and had to be recalled because it was causing heart problems.  Some vaccines don't work as well as others and have to be refined over time.  Perhaps going with a new technology was a mistake?

Ah yes, the Tucker Carlson approach of “just asking questions” with questions that have easily accessible answers to sow doubt.

[Harry T. Clark]

38 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

No. Your first link is to a site that loves conspiracies and is not news. It is a mish-mash of junk. Israel is dealing with the same wave a lot of the world is dealing with but despite a largely expected number of breakthrough cases death numbers are very low. 324 severe cases in a nation with Israel’s population is better than most. The vaccine is working.

There is no need to change gears. Changing gears would probably get more people killed.

Is this not news?  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/science/covid-vaccine-israel-pfizer.html

Why do you think Pfizer is suggesting a third shot?  Because the first two were so effective?  https://khn.org/morning-breakout/pfizer-says-data-support-covid-booster-shots-as-efficacy-fades-over-time/

[Harry T. Clark]

1 minute ago, The Nehor said:

Ah yes, the Tucker Carlson approach of “just asking questions” with questions that have easily accessible answers to sow doubt.

Ah yes, let's not ask any unpleasant questions and just trust what our leaders say.  This is supposed to not be about politics but you couldn't resist.

[Chum]

4 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Ah yes, let's not ask any unpleasant questions and just trust what our leaders say.

I don't think we consider medical experts to be our leaders. They're more like evidence based textbooks with an increasing propensity to be correct.

edit: Some leaders repeat best possible advice from a broad consensus of qualified experts. Other leaders repeat invented theories - ones that sometimes come from (often debunked) individuals with degrees.

I'm guessing you feel skeptical of one of those types of leaders.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Chum

[The Nehor]

1 minute ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Is this not news?  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/science/covid-vaccine-israel-pfizer.html

Why do you think Pfizer is suggesting a third shot?  Because the first two were so effective?  https://khn.org/morning-breakout/pfizer-says-data-support-covid-booster-shots-as-efficacy-fades-over-time/

So you are arguing that I was unfair in my reaction to your post because I didn’t mention an article in a different post that you hadn’t posted yet?

They are suggesting a third shot because the data suggests that the booster may provide further protection from infection and further mitigate symptoms if you do catch the disease. The first two are effective. That is easy to see when you look at places that have received the Pfizer vaccine in greater numbers have lower numbers of cases than areas with less vaccination.

If you personally are waiting for an “all or nothing” defense against Covid and will accept nothing less you are welcome to risk your own life but most of the rest of us want to get the pandemic under control instead of waiting a year or more for your ideal solution. And yes, the vaccines will get better over time. Boosters may be recommended.