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Covid III: Delta Force


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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Ipod Touch said:

My suspicion is that wearing a mask is like going through airport security

Mine is it is the quality of masks. Cloth help with droplets, but not for long term indoor contact.  Mask mandates high compliance may not mean good quality masks.  I get it sounds like changing the goal posts, while trying to justify past efforts….but I think the lab data is strong enough to support the effectiveness of some types of masks.  

What we need imo is a study comparing general population transmission to transmission among those wearing kn95 or better masks.  Chances are the kn95+ users are also going to be more compliant in other ways though, such as avoiding indoor gatherings. I am not sure how one can construct a real life study that isolates mask behaviour. Maybe by choosing random participants and giving them free kn95 and the other masks likely to be more effective and tracking them by phone to evaluate how often they are in indoor with others, pay them to report on behaviour as asking about who they are meeting etc might cause a lot of dropout as not worth the effort otherwise. 
 

Another possibility after reading the Provincetown npr report is maybe to seek out participants from the gay community as many are open and willing to put the effort into sharing the level of details needed, having seen the usefulness of it with HIV and other diseases. 

Edited by Calm
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Masks are effective at slowing transmission.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2021/03/16/do-masks-really-work-politifact-seeks-answers-for-mask-skeptics/

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

They are just not as effective as many wish and this pandemic is unlikely to end without a lot more vaccination implemented worldwide. Canada, Spain, and the U.K are the only nations getting close to the usual low bar for herd immunity at around 70%. My guess is that won’t cut it with the more infectious delta variant. We probably have to hit the 80-90% range to get things under control.

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1 minute ago, The Nehor said:

Masks are effective at slowing transmission.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2021/03/16/do-masks-really-work-politifact-seeks-answers-for-mask-skeptics/

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

They are just not as effective as many wish and this pandemic is unlikely to end without a lot more vaccination implemented worldwide. Canada, Spain, and the U.K are the only nations getting close to the usual low bar for herd immunity at around 70%. My guess is that won’t cut it with the more infectious delta variant. We probably have to hit the 80-90% range to get things under control.

It would also help if more people actually wore masks. I’m dismayed by the number of people I’m aware of who have only worn a mask when forced to.  I want to ask them if they also refuse to wear shoes or a shirt when going into businesses. 🙄

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1 hour ago, cinepro said:

Everywhere I went, everyone was wearing masks

What types of masks were/are most using that you see?

Do you think mask wearing led to other more careless behaviour like less social distancing…which is my big concern with wearing less effective masks outside the fact they are less effective?

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41 minutes ago, Metis_LDS said:

I am not in the USA.  I scan newspapers online pretty much everyday in the UK, the USA and Canada.  It is my own experience that if you see an article about Covid then you just need to wait a few days or a week for an other article that will contradict the first.   Based on everyting I have read in the news about Covid I am confused and no longer trust anything I read.  This is a warning for the future.  Science had better get their ducks in a row and develop world class test for what is airborne and what is not airborne with solid proof.  If Covid had been worst we would have seen the breakdown of society even in the western world.  Here in the UK it almost caused the breakdown of the public healthcare system.

This is not a scientist problem. It is a media problem. There is no “organization of scientists” that can strip sciencing licenses from people who lie. When wrong scientific conclusions based on bad data come out a lot of scientists do push back but they don’t know how to make the news push correction (boring..) as hard as the next new things (shiny, lots of clicks). People were also demanding hard answers to questions that no one had had time to answer. Guesses were made. Some were right and some were wrong. Others pushed conclusions not yet supported by evidence to their own ends. People still believe things said at the beginning of the pandemic that are now disproven.

Until a science paper is published and reviewed it is wise to view it with skepticism. Because Covid was an emergency many papers were pushed forward without review for public consumption. This was partly to tentatively inform and partly so other researchers could build off of the work more quickly. The usual fraudsters cashed in as well for publicity with random ravings or bad takes on studies.  The media ate it all up and dumped the whole tangled mess on consumers to figure out.

Science and scientists aren’t the problem. It is science funding. If we want more data they need more money.

I am not sure I can say that there is a way to push legal action here but I wish socially that people were more contemptuous of liars. I note that the Book of Mormon puts lying in the same list as adultery and murder in the civil code of the Nephites. There might be a lesson there. If liars were shamed and pushed into a corner as people never to be listened to again and treated with scorn we would be in a better place. That is probably impossible though based on human nature.

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39 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

Masks are effective at slowing transmission.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2021/03/16/do-masks-really-work-politifact-seeks-answers-for-mask-skeptics/

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

They are just not as effective as many wish and this pandemic is unlikely to end without a lot more vaccination implemented worldwide. Canada, Spain, and the U.K are the only nations getting close to the usual low bar for herd immunity at around 70%. My guess is that won’t cut it with the more infectious delta variant. We probably have to hit the 80-90% range to get things under control.

OF course, it should be noted that these studies predate the Delta Force Virus

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29 minutes ago, Calm said:

What types of masks were/are most using that you see?

Do you think mask wearing led to other more careless behaviour like less social distancing…which is my big concern with wearing less effective masks outside the fact they are less effective?

I personally think the mask mandates sort of gave many people an excuse not to social distance.  I know several people who got the Corona virus while wearing a mask, like the mask was a magic anti covid spell, when, at best, it seems to just slow it down a bit. 

Now that Delta is in force and most places don't have a mask mandate, it would be interesting to see if people voluntarily Social distance.

The more I read about the Providence, Mass infections, the more I suspect the people who got the Delta Variant there might not have been social distancing.

 

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4 hours ago, Bernard Gui said:

Does anyone follow all the official mask guidelines?

Review these rules again and then pick a %age of people who follow all of these guidelines. Personally I know of no one who does, even my spouse who is very very very careful. If 1 % are following all the rules I would be shocked, SHOCKED I tell you. 

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Danzo said:

OF course, it should be noted that these studies predate the Delta Force Virus

Yes, it needs to be said. The studies with Delta will take time to get out, but we should go with best practices at our current state of knowledge imo. 

 

29 minutes ago, Danzo said:

The more I read about the Providence, Mass infections, the more I suspect the people who got the Delta Variant there might not have been social distancing.

The npr article makes it clear they were not.   It avoided anything graphic, but described the scene as lasting pretty much all day, indoor, massed people, physical contact at least through dancing.  The personal reports I read said the same thing as well as a number saying they were having fun hooking up after a year of no partying.  A few said they avoided the two largest venues as those did not require proof of vaccinations. These were Reddit posts in threads where people had asked about the best places to go. 

Edited by Calm
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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, strappinglad said:

Review these rules again and then pick a %age of people who follow all of these guidelines. Personally I know of no one who does, even my spouse who is very very very careful. If 1 % are following all the rules I would be shocked, SHOCKED I tell you. 

One of the common vectors of disease is poop. Should we get freaked out, mock, or otherwise discount the efforts made because few use full out best practices when changing diapers on babies or even taking care of their own bum?  Or do we applaud what is done and then educate where we can practical methods of cleanliness that are most likely to take root?  It is not all or nothing. There is a balance of effort and resource investment and benefit that needs to be explored, the bare minimum of effort that makes a difference, but if that is uncertain that doesn’t mean we would ignore what we believe helps. 

Edited by Calm
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41 minutes ago, Calm said:

Yes, it needs to be said. The studies with Delta will take time to get out, but we should go with best practices at our current state of knowledge imo. 

Just trying to follow the rules established in the OP.  

On 8/6/2021 at 4:01 PM, Calm said:

Really the only difference from previous threads in this thread is the variant issue…don’t assume studies of Covid in general are the same as studies of the variants. 

 

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2 hours ago, cinepro said:

I spend so much time in LDS-centric forums that honestly I think a lot of it is the perspective of people living in Utah and other states that are perceived to have low-masking. They tell themselves that if only more people would have worn masks, things would have been okay.

I'm in Los Angeles, so I have the opposite experience. Everywhere I went, everyone was wearing masks but our case numbers still went off the charts. Even right now, we've had a mask mandate for 3 weeks and our cases are rising as quickly as in other nearby non-mask counties.

So I'm at the point where I believe masks could work, and I believe they should work, but in looking at the real-world data, I'm not convinced they do work. And the longer this goes on (and the more data that comes in), the more the pro-mask crowd sound like people that made up their minds in April of 2020 and are determined to maintain their belief in masks no matter what the data says. I understand the psychological forces at play, but it's odd that they still insist they're being scientific.

And then there's the mystery raised by Bernard Gui. Even with high rates of masking, we saw massive winter spikes. Hawaii (with high masking) is seeing one right now. But now we're told there's a new more highly contagious variant and the way to stop or impede it is...to do the same thing that didn't stop the less contagious version?

To Defeat Delta Variant, Experts Recommend Doing All The Things That Didn't Work The First Time


 

If I had to wager a guess, mask wearing at the grocery store where all interactions are short, has little to do with Covid transmission. It’s just a chance to virtue signal on both sides of the issue. Does it help a little? Probably. 
 

I am willing to bet that almost all cases come from family/friend to family/friend contact where mask wearing and social distancing is very hard to track and there is likely smaller differences between regions. 
 

Maybe this will change now that delta has increased contagiousness. Perhaps those brief interactions will be more problematic? It sure seems like someone could check pretty easy. Get a sick person. Put a mask on her and do some air sampling? I guess it must not be that easy?

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

mask wearing at the grocery store where all interactions are short, has little to do with Covid transmission.

Possibly, depends on how long you are stuck in line I am guessing…that would be IMO the most vulnerable time, though with a grocery cart between and lots of air space usually, you might get enough of an extension even with Delta (comparison of transmission rates I have read as 15 minutes vs 1 sec…but need to find a study with specifics.  I don’t know how this was determined).

Edited by Calm
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15 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

If I had to wager a guess, mask wearing at the grocery store where all interactions are short, has little to do with Covid transmission. It’s just a chance to virtue signal on both sides of the issue. Does it help a little? Probably. 
 

I am willing to bet that almost all cases come from family/friend to family/friend contact where mask wearing and social distancing is very hard to track and there is likely smaller differences between regions. 
 

Maybe this will change now that delta has increased contagiousness. Perhaps those brief interactions will be more problematic? It sure seems like someone could check pretty easy. Get a sick person. Put a mask on her and do some air sampling? I guess it must not be that easy?

While once it gets into a family it will probably get everyone the more likely avenues are areas where people are together for extended periods. Airports, restaurants, concerts, church meetings, office workers, etc. It is also not yet clear how much more infectious Delta is. It is just more infectious.

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On 8/7/2021 at 5:16 PM, Tacenda said:

Well, I read those fact checks and found them to be somewhat deceitful. 

Edited by Bernard Gui
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4 hours ago, cinepro said:

I spend so much time in LDS-centric forums that honestly I think a lot of it is the perspective of people living in Utah and other states that are perceived to have low-masking. They tell themselves that if only more people would have worn masks, things would have been okay.

I'm in Los Angeles, so I have the opposite experience. Everywhere I went, everyone was wearing masks but our case numbers still went off the charts. Even right now, we've had a mask mandate for 3 weeks and our cases are rising as quickly as in other nearby non-mask counties.

So I'm at the point where I believe masks could work, and I believe they should work, but in looking at the real-world data, I'm not convinced they do work. And the longer this goes on (and the more data that comes in), the more the pro-mask crowd sound like people that made up their minds in April of 2020 and are determined to maintain their belief in masks no matter what the data says. I understand the psychological forces at play, but it's odd that they still insist they're being scientific.

And then there's the mystery raised by Bernard Gui. Even with high rates of masking, we saw massive winter spikes. Hawaii (with high masking) is seeing one right now. But now we're told there's a new more highly contagious variant and the way to stop or impede it is...to do the same thing that didn't stop the less contagious version?

To Defeat Delta Variant, Experts Recommend Doing All The Things That Didn't Work The First Time


 

Minus the shot, I'm of the mind that there's not a single catch all solution that would drastically slow covid outbreaks. There's several that interplay to make for a safer experience. Some of which are likely far harder to  implement in LA than UT. Namely I would bet LA's biggest problem was their population density and general size. Where UT's is 33 people per square mile, LA's is 7.5K people per square mile. And usually city stores tend to be more compact and crowded. In short distancing gets really really difficult in circumstances like that. I do think we like short hands for everything and simplified explanations. So it makes since this gets shortened to "mask or no mask" as opposed to "mask correctly and contextually used, distance at all times, shorten indoor public times preferably with good ventillation, test when exposed or feeling sick, quarantine, reduce public outings to bare minimum excursions, work at home if you can"  or only some of that somewhat consistently or none of it."

 And if you're in more successful countries in staving off the numbers there's likely far more hoops added to that first list that were structure rather than based on individual responsibility.

I've been looking at a few other nation's responses and how that's effected their numbers. Obviously that will (or at least) should be studied for years after this to better hone systems and make plans for what we can better do next time around. These are a :few of the articles/data I've currently been reading around international responses (@calm tried to find ones that were basic commentary/descriptive/research... not political opinion pieces):

Broad overviews:

https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/covid-performance/

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries

Two specific countries that are consistently viewed as opposites in their covid respons:

https://www.msf.org/failed-coronavirus-response-drives-brazil-humanitarian-catastrophe

https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2021-04/new-zealand-response-be-proud

(note: some of this data is from before the delta waves)

With luv,

BD

 

 

 

Edited by BlueDreams
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10 minutes ago, Bernard Gui said:

Well, I read those fact checks and found them to be snuggly deceitful. 

Snuggly, or smugly? ;)  Just asking! :D

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https://ksltv.com/470213/utah-family-shares-regret-over-not-getting-covid-19-vaccine/

Perhaps we need to remember that the Lord helps those who help themselves.

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3 hours ago, Raingirl said:

It would also help if more people actually wore masks. I’m dismayed by the number of people I’m aware of who have only worn a mask when forced to.  I want to ask them if they also refuse to wear shoes or a shirt when going into businesses. 🙄

When we were living there, people in Washington were very diligent in wearing masks, but my observation was that it was mostly for show because no one followed the guidelines, ie., not touching the mask, washing hands before and after, hanging them on these or under the chin, reusing disposables, not wearing it correctly, etc. Removing them while eating in a restaurant? How is that scientific?

I remember one expert doctor interviewed on national TV who said wearing a mask to control a virus is like building a chain link fence to keep mosquitoes out of your yard. Nevertheless, we masked up even after we were vaccinated in February. 

Edited by Bernard Gui
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4 hours ago, Raingirl said:

It would also help if more people actually wore masks. I’m dismayed by the number of people I’m aware of who have only worn a mask when forced to.  I want to ask them if they also refuse to wear shoes or a shirt when going into businesses. 🙄

That's a good example of another thing that people assume is related to public health when it really isn't. There is no reason related to health that anyone needs to wear shoes or shirts in a business. Think about it for a second. Why would your feet need to be covered when all they touch is the floor, but your hands don't need to be covered when they touch...everything...?

Edited by cinepro
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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, cinepro said:

Why would your feet need to be covered when all they touch is the floor,

Because you don’t look where you step and can injure your feet (speaking from experience as bare feet whenever I could, even in snow). Nail as well as glass in my foot and a weird two inch long splinter of wood in my knee that popped out in my twenties that I don’t remember getting but should have been excruciating, never had that issue with putting my hand accidentally down on a pointy nail or broken piece of glass…though I did slice a finger deeply opening a can. 
 

Shirts are mental health issues…for the people who can see you. 

Edited by Calm
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50 minutes ago, cinepro said:

That's a good example of another thing that people assume is related to public health when it really isn't. There is no reason related to health that anyone needs to wear shoes or shirts in a business. Think about it for a second. Why would your feet need to be covered when all they touch is the floor, but your hands don't need to be covered when they touch...everything...?

Those signs were never about public health. They were created to keep out hippies and have stuck around ever since. Same with the “Please wait to be seated” signs. Except for the most high class restaurants it used to be you would seat yourself. With the need to keep hippies out they insisted that people had to be seated so they could more expeditiously get rid of the riff-raff.

It is not part of any health code. The Society for Barefoot Living checked and it is just a store policy we are stuck with until those “long hairs” are finally gone and the owners can put away the signs and no longer worry about the hippie scourge.

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Just read the story of someone who has caught Covid three times with three different variants.

Please note: They are not Pokémon. You do not, under any circumstance, ‘gotta catch’em all’.

Edited by The Nehor
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A friend pointed out that the best way to get up vaccination rates is to do PSAs about what happens when you are dying of Covid and that the best person for the job would be the Canadians who made these safety PSAs over a decade ago.

WARNING: THIS EXAMPLE IS HORRIFYING but I have it on good authority Canada put these on several channels including ones specifically for children.

What do you think? Could it help?

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