Covid III: Delta Force

[pogi]

16 hours ago, bsjkki said:

The studies I am looking for are the numbers of people with reinfections vs being vaccinated and comparisons between vaccinated and the naturally immune. Those are hard to find. It has been shown in 3 studies cited by the CDC that for  those who have had covid, they gain more immunity by getting vaccinated (and show one shot is probably enough.)  It is less clear if the naturally immune or only vaccinated are better off. If you have find numbers or studies that compare these two groups, I would like to read them.

Interesting interview if you follow the link in the article. https://sharylattkisson.com/2021/08/u-s-official-finally-acknowledges-covid-19-natural-immunity-as-good-as-vaccine/

"No data showing vaccine immunity is greater than natural immunity."

 

I don't have any studies or numbers that compare the two.  If natural immunity is better than the current effectiveness of vaccination, then that would be great.  People need to be carful with this information though.  By saying that natural immunity is "better" than vaccination, some people may naturally want what is "better" and disregard or downplay vaccination.  You would think it would be obvious as to why it would be best to avoid natural immunity altogether, but if there is one thing I have learned over the last couple years is that what may seem obvious to you may not be obvious to others.  We can't be careful enough with our words in relation to this pandemic, masks, and vaccines.   While the immunity may be "better" with natural infection, people need to realize that it actually requires getting infected to acquire it.  Which is why it is a much worse option in a risk vs benefit analysis, and is obviously MUCH higher risk than simply getting vaccinated.  So we need to be careful to always contextualize what we mean by natural immunity is "better" - if indeed it is.   

We also need to be careful to emphasize that this changes nothing in terms of recommendations.  Vaccination is still recommended regardless of previous infection status because those with natural immunity and no vaccine are still 2.34 times more likely to get reinfected than those who have natural immunity plus vaccine. 

 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm

Edited August 25, 2021 by pogi

[Hamba Tuhan]

Another glimpse inside an ICU, this time recovering patients inside a hospital in Australia's Sydney able to speak for themselves: 

 

Edited August 26, 2021 by Hamba Tuhan

[Hamba Tuhan]

'Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Frontline Workers Before and During B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant Predominance — Eight U.S. Locations, December 2020–August 2021'.

Main takeaway:

Quote

During December 14, 2020–August 14, 2021, full vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines was 80% effective in preventing RT-PCR–confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection among frontline workers, further affirming the highly protective benefit of full vaccination up to and through the most recent summer U.S. COVID-19 pandemic waves. The VE [vaccine effectiveness] point estimates declined from 91% before predominance of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant to 66% since the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant became predominant at the HEROES-RECOVER cohort study sites; however, this trend should be interpreted with caution because VE might also be declining as time since vaccination increases and because of poor precision in estimates due to limited number of weeks of observation and few infections among participants.

 

[bsjkki]

 

[pogi]

2 hours ago, bsjkki said:

 

Interesting.  This study shows a 13 fold increased risk of breakthrough infection whereas the last Israel study you posted only showed a 6.7 fold increase.  Either way, both studies seem to corroborate that natural immunity is more robust than from vaccination alone.  This study does also corroborate that getting vaccinated after infection gives added protection against the Delta variant.  It would be nice to see some US studies as genetics can play a role in immunogenicity, and we might see different results in different parts of the world. 

On 8/24/2021 at 11:49 AM, bsjkki said:

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762

 

Edited August 26, 2021 by pogi

[bsjkki]

49 minutes ago, pogi said:

It would be nice to see some US studies

Yes. Where are those numbers?

[The Nehor]

How you know after the timeline fractured that you are in the bizarro-world version:

 

[The Nehor]

[carbon dioxide]

On 8/26/2021 at 6:41 PM, The Nehor said:

How you know after the timeline fractured that you are in the bizarro-world version:

 

Sometimes I wonder if I am living in the Twilight Zone.  Many of the same people who reject a vaccine will willing take ANYTHING else to treat COVID.  I would not doubt some would treat COVID with cyanide but a vaccine. No way.  That is like selling your soul to the devil.

[Calm]

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/956553

Quote

Tachycardia is commonly reported in patients with post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS), also known as long COVID, authors report in a new article. The researchers say tachycardia syndrome should be considered a distinct phenotype.

 

Edited August 30, 2021 by Calm

[Hamba Tuhan]

Katherine Twohig et al., 'Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study', Lancet, 27 Aug. 2021:

Quote

To our knowledge, this study provides the largest whole-genome-sequencing dataset for SARS-CoV-2 in a high-income country to date, enabling the assessment of hospitalisation risk for the delta variant compared with the alpha variant using linked administrative data. The results suggest that patients with the delta variant had more than two times the risk of hospital admission compared with patients with the alpha variant. Emergency care attendance combined with hospital admission was also higher for patients with the delta variant, showing increased use of emergency care services as well as inpatient hospitalisation ... It has previously been reported that vaccination leads to a similar relative reduction in the risk of hospitalisation for patients with the delta variant or the alpha variant. This is consistent with the findings in the present study: overall, the number of hospital attendances were low in the vaccinated subgroup resulting in low-precision relative risk estimates.

 

[Robert J Anderson]

Did anyone see this?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-27/previous-covid-prevents-delta-infection-better-than-pfizer-shot?sref=i4qXzk6d

Is this going to turn out to be how the chicken pox was back when I was young in the 70's?  Get your kids exposed to they can get immune to it?

[bsjkki]

Risk chart from the financial times.

[The Nehor]

3 hours ago, Robert J Anderson said:

Did anyone see this?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-27/previous-covid-prevents-delta-infection-better-than-pfizer-shot?sref=i4qXzk6d

Is this going to turn out to be how the chicken pox was back when I was young in the 70's?  Get your kids exposed to they can get immune to it?

Unlikely. Chicken Pox vaccines are at around 90% effective at preventing the disease. Around where the covid vaccine is now.

[bsjkki]

https://m.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientists-discover-how-to-reverse-cell-aging-678081

[bsjkki]

This wave is not the same. 

 

Edited September 1, 2021 by bsjkki

[The Nehor]

12 hours ago, bsjkki said:

https://m.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientists-discover-how-to-reverse-cell-aging-678081

Always be cautious about announcements like these. I have seen many articles about discoveries that can ‘cure’ aging and still no immortality.

[The Nehor]

11 hours ago, bsjkki said:

This wave is not the same. 

 

Something is off on that graph. The death rate is not that low in the UK. I clicked several articles about the death rate and articles in the UK are reporting higher daily death rates than the worldometer is reporting. No idea where the disconnect is.

[bsjkki]

1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

Something is off on that graph. The death rate is not that low in the UK. I clicked several articles about the death rate and articles in the UK are reporting higher daily death rates than the worldometer is reporting. No idea where the disconnect is.

I got it from the the Guardian Uk. I read a lot of foreign press. I did compare their graph to those of various states. From a ‘snapshot’ view, the UK looks much, much, better than Texas, Florida,  etc...

They do have a higher percentage of fully vaccinated. Here is the graph from worldometer. Looks about the same.

Then you have higher vaxxed Israel. Their snapshot shows they are not doing as well as the UK but this could be because their deaths were lower during the previous waves. Or, could it be vaccine choice. I read a study that Moderna does much better against Delta. Did the UK take Astra Zeneca? Is it more effective than Pfizer? (Which Israel used) Could vaccine choice effect state outcomes too? So many variables. 

 

Edited September 1, 2021 by bsjkki

[Calm]

From consumerlab.com, it is a subscription site, so don’t know if this is public or private:

Quote

The benefit of vaccination is still believed to outweigh the risk of myocarditis. For instance, an analysis of data from Israel predicted that there are 2.7 extra cases of myocarditis for every 100,000 people vaccinated, although there are 11 extra cases per 100,000 people with COVID-19 (Barda, N Engl J Med 2021). Among males ages 16-17 years, 73 cases of myocarditis are predicted to occur for every million fully vaccinated with Pfizer, but this vaccination is predicted to prevent 56,700 cases of COVID, 500 hospitalizations, 170 ICU admissions, and four deaths (Rosenblum, ACIP Meeting 8/30/21)…

Through July 16, 2021, out of 8.9 million adolescents (ages 12 to 17) vaccinated, there have been 9,246 reports of adverse effects — about 1 per 1,000 vaccinees. More than 90% of these reports involved nonserious events such as dizziness, fainting, and headache. Among 863 serious events reported, the majority were among males, and the most common serious adverse events were chest pain, increased troponin levels (suggesting injury to heart muscle), myocarditis, and increased c-reactive protein (indicating inflammation) (Hause, MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021). All of these events are consistent with a diagnosis of myocarditis. However, the benefit of vaccination is still believed to outweigh the risk of myocarditis in adolescents. Among males ages 12 to 17, 56 to 69 cases of myocarditis are predicted to occur for every million full vaccinations, but this vaccination is predicted to prevent 5,700 cases of COVID, 215 hospitalizations, 71 ICU admissions, and two deaths. However, if myocarditis is experienced after the first dose, experts recommend deferring the second dose until more information is known (Wallace, ACIP Meeting 6/23/21).

Vaccine-related myocarditis in adolescents 19 and younger appears to be less severe than other forms of myocarditis, according to results from a small case study, which found that other forms of myocarditis more commonly require intensive care unit admission for more patients (50% vs. 0%) and require longer duration of hospitalization (14 days vs. 2 days). However, the long-term risks of vaccine-related myocarditis in adolescents are still unclear (Dionne, JAMA Cardiology 2021).

https://www.consumerlab.com/answers/comparison-of-covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines/?anchor=benefit-outweighs-myocarditis-risk&j=2453686&sfmc_sub=150057022&l=529_HTML&u=26593851&mid=7276525&jb=5005&utm_medium=email&utm_source=exacttarget&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_term=&utm_content=pfas_member_de_send#benefit-outweighs-myocarditis-risk

Let me know if you want the original studies…though they are likely to have been already cited here, I am posting this because it puts the comparison info in an easily digested form.  

Edited September 1, 2021 by Calm

[The Nehor]

7 hours ago, bsjkki said:

I got it from the the Guardian Uk. I read a lot of foreign press. I did compare their graph to those of various states. From a ‘snapshot’ view, the UK looks much, much, better than Texas, Florida,  etc...

No, I saw the source of the data but it didn’t sound right so I started digging into UK news articles and their statements on the number of recent deaths don’t match that data. Not sure what is going on there.

[The Nehor]

I laughed but partly because I just love Jack Chick parodies.

[The Nehor]

I am so READY FOR THIS!

 

[bsjkki]

17 hours ago, The Nehor said:

No, I saw the source of the data but it didn’t sound right so I started digging into UK news articles and their statements on the number of recent deaths don’t match that data. Not sure what is going on there.

They may be comparing numbers from August 2020 to August 2021. The headlines are covid deaths are compared to last year. That is true. But covid deaths are way lower during this wave compared to the case wave.

Edited September 2, 2021 by bsjkki

[Chum]

14 hours ago, bsjkki said:

But covid deaths are way lower during this wave compared to the case wave.

Florida scoffs at the weakness of your declining death rates