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Is it Just Me and My Confirmation Bias....


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6 hours ago, Rain said:

As a once provident living specialist I think it is wiser to teach a few principles and then let others do it individually.

The first principle the church teaches is to store 3 months of the foods you would normally eat.  Everyone eats so varied that it would be hard to get a program for that.  

The easiest way to do it is to buy a little extra each time you shop.  (I had a companion whose parents didn't think they had enough money for storage. When she was little she would sneak one extra can or box in the cart each shopping trip.  Then she it it under her bed. When her dad lost his job she showed them their storage. )

Realistically, this is as far as most members will get. And much farther than many.

Then the second step is to get the year supply of long term storage.  We find when we used only our storage about 10v years ago for a month that this is a good starting place,  but still can be quite individual.  For example, if I were starting again I would get less wheat and more rolled oats, oat groats and other grains.

I look for specials, and whenever something I use regularly is on special I get a couple extra. There are usually some left by the next time its on special and I get a couple more. End up never paying the regular price for certain things and my stored inventory of regular use items slowly expands. Have "inherited" wheat, well packaged from the 70's, enough for the extended family, but diversifying into oats, maize etc. for some variety. All of this has come in handy the few times I was unemployed or there was panic buying etc.

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3 hours ago, gav said:

But for us if we listen there can be at least "bread in Egypt"

I agree.  If we are following His commandments, God will help. It's a mistake to think that we know what His helping will look like, but it will be there.  

I remember during a flooding disaster a few years ago (maybe more than 10 years ago, I can't remember) when some saints lost their food storage (and everything else) to flood waters.  Someone online went off on how it was worthless for them to have spent so much money and effort to get it when God took it all away in a flood.  Someone else responded that her food storage (not flood damaged as she lived in a different area) had allowed her to care for the flood victims when she otherwise wouldn't have been able.

We do what we can, and leave it in God's hands.

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9 minutes ago, Rain said:

Yes.  We no longer have 2 sons in our home like we did when we first really worked on our storage (we had always had it, but gave a big push to it at this time). 

With covid came a lot of sickness with the Indians here - the Navajo and others.  The refugee organization I was with started working with others to get them what they needed.  Many of the homes didn't have food or running water.  They needed things like beans, flour, salt etc.  We had $ donations from people, but there were limits on how much you could get.  Guess what our family were able to give them.

To me it was quite amazing because when I became a provident living specialist I looked into where the ideas of food storage started in out church.  It in part started with the idea of caring for others - if you are self sufficient you don't need help from others and you can start to care for others yourself.  So it was really cool to see how God's plan worked in my own life.

I love that. 

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19 hours ago, bluebell said:
19 hours ago, smac97 said:

That works.  Until they run out of gas for the generator...

Canned meat can work, but it's pricey.  Freeze dried meat is best, but also pricey.

Beans and rice?

It's probably good for all of us to remember that ultimately, there is no preparation (or amount of money) that we can undertake that will cover every scenario of possible disasters.  It's in God's hands.

At this point, the Church will need to organize a new Vanguard Company (ala Brigham Young).  Where to?  To the remote desert?  Where we wait for Jackson County to be claimed by descendants of Lehi.  :rolleyes:

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On 10/4/2020 at 3:30 PM, Calm said:

When the panic buying in the stores happened

Just a note that on the Gulf Coast, this is called "buying". It's what we do when tropical weather pops up, because no one has everything on hand at all times.

Edited by Chum
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21 hours ago, Bernard Gui said:

Were you around in the 60s and 70s?

I think this is important. I'm a little discouraged at how little attention is paid to recent history.

In 1970 the US had 400 domestic terror attacks a year (orig source: Rand corp). The Pentagon Papers leaked and the FBI was redirected away from bulk surveillance & back into law enforcement. The agency did an outstanding job. By 1976, US domestic terrorism dropped to historic lows; it's still there. It's a big reason why spending $2 Trillion since 2001 didn't change terror levels because there was nothing to change. We are immensely safe and have been for a lifetime.

The relentless and pervasive pressure to be fearful in the face of such safety is curious.

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5 hours ago, Chum said:

I think this is important. I'm a little discouraged at how little attention is paid to recent history.

In 1970 the US had 400 domestic terror attacks a year (orig source: Rand corp). The Pentagon Papers leaked and the FBI was redirected away from bulk surveillance & back into law enforcement. The agency did an outstanding job. By 1976, US domestic terrorism dropped to historic lows; it's still there. It's a big reason why spending $2 Trillion since 2001 didn't change terror levels because there was nothing to change. We are immensely safe and have been for a lifetime.

The relentless and pervasive pressure to be fearful in the face of such safety is curious.

I was around in the 60s and 70s. I was in the last BYU class that was allowed to have beards and long hair. There were a number of political issues that were addressed by our leaders.

Edited by Bernard Gui
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I think they may have gone more generic due to the great influx of baptisms as well as then needing to address a more global church. 

I actually wish they would address a few areas in the world each time so that we in the States and elsewhere get to learn about life for Saints there and how counsel that works well for us can also have positive effects on others’ problems, even when quite different.

But that isn’t my call.

——

This year many American interests are global interests, especially Covid and its impact both health, social, and financial, but also protests and political conflict so not surprising to me it was quite specific at times. 

Edited by Calm
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On 10/4/2020 at 1:36 PM, gav said:

Based on the tone of the first two sessions of conference I don't see November's election and the events that follow being very smooth in the USA.

You don't need to have heard conference to conclude that, unfortunately.

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4 hours ago, Stargazer said:

You don't need to have heard conference to conclude that, unfortunately.

Yes, but to hear the twelve focus on similar themes when they usually steer clear of such themes adds to my concern that things will be getting worse, possibly much worse, so much so that many of them have taken precious conference time in an effort for us to be fortified and warned. As The Nehor joked 2021 may make 2020 look like a picnic. Perhaps more true words have been spoken in jest...

Edited by gav
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14 hours ago, gav said:

Yes, but to hear the twelve focus on similar themes when they usually steer clear of such themes adds to my concern that things will be getting worse, possibly much worse, so much so that many of them have taken precious conference time in an effort for us to be fortified and warned. As The Nehor joked 2021 may make 2020 look like a picnic. Perhaps more true words have been spoken in jest...

It also could be though that "good information makes for good inspiration" though. I believe that the apostles have a very good knowledge base of the troubles of the world, but they don't know and understand everything.  Perhaps all the new (to possibly them) has given them good inspiration.  

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6 minutes ago, Rain said:

It also could be though that "good information makes for good inspiration" though. I believe that the apostles have a very good knowledge base of the troubles of the world, but they don't know and understand everything.  Perhaps all the new (to possibly them) has given them good inspiration.  

Very valid point, they may see further than us but in certain matters, what they see may also still only be a circle of light, that reveals the details upon closer approach.

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On 10/6/2020 at 7:37 PM, gav said:

Yes, but to hear the twelve focus on similar themes when they usually steer clear of such themes adds to my concern that things will be getting worse, possibly much worse, so much so that many of them have taken precious conference time in an effort for us to be fortified and warned. As The Nehor joked 2021 may make 2020 look like a picnic. Perhaps more true words have been spoken in jest...

Let's hope we get some financial recovery time after we get a vaccine for covid-19 before the next calamity. 

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30 minutes ago, rodheadlee said:

Let's hope we get some financial recovery time after we get a vaccine for covid-19 before the next calamity. 

Well, you know who put the stimulus checks on hold. 

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7 hours ago, Tacenda said:

Well, you know who put the stimulus checks on hold. 

Why would he do a thing like that? I can't imagine. 

PS if we were allowed to talk with politics I could answer that question. 

Edited by rodheadlee
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2 hours ago, rodheadlee said:

Let's hope we get some financial recovery time after we get a vaccine for covid-19 before the next calamity. 

The globe hadn't fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis and that has made the financial impact of this pandemic much worse for those that didn't or couldn't make adjustments in the ensuing years. Conference had "a brace yourselves" thematic element intermingled with "don't panic and do what you can as directed by the spirit"

What I seem to notice from the scriptures is that there are some instantaneous calamities and some that may take decades. In the latter cases often the first calamitous waves are warning shots and the wise take warning, prepare and get by OK through the harshest phases.

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4 hours ago, gav said:

The globe hadn't fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis and that has made the financial impact of this pandemic much worse for those that didn't or couldn't make adjustments in the ensuing years. Conference had "a brace yourselves" thematic element intermingled with "don't panic and do what you can as directed by the spirit"

What I seem to notice from the scriptures is that there are some instantaneous calamities and some that may take decades. In the latter cases often the first calamitous waves are warning shots and the wise take warning, prepare and get by OK through the harshest phases.

Things in my world were humming along real good when the pandemic hit. We are mired in waiting for construction permits now.

Edited by rodheadlee
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On 10/4/2020 at 5:36 AM, gav said:

Based on the tone of the first two sessions of conference I don't see November's election and the events that follow being very smooth in the USA.

I don't live there so "I don't have dog in this fight" but we have had a talk in both sessions so far on temporal and spiritual preparedness. Others on unity, leaving behind competitive cultural aspects and some very strong words around getting out and staying out of the current political instabilities and turmoil. Others on adversity and testing. I don't remember the twelve getting too involved in the political vagaries of the day in the past, so this focus on current affairs by many of the twelve seems portentous.

These seem to be more direct focus than usual on these types of themes or perhaps my confirmation bias is just a little hyper sensitive in these areas lately

If you don't have a dog in the fight, then it probably isn't Confirmation Bias.

It would more likely be an Availability Bias, where things that are more recently emphasized and discussed come to mind more quickly, so when you hear a statement in General Conference you link it to things that have prominently been in the news (like the upcoming US election.)

 

Availability Bias

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I want to let you all know how much I have enjoyed all of your comments on this subject. My wife has become an avid prepper and she thinks we have about six months of food on the shelves. Not as preppers, we have purchased a "half-beef" that lasts around a year for us and are planning to do so again. I was interested in some of the ideas about generators. We have talked about a generator, but as smac points out, one still needs fuel for a generator for a long term power outage. I think rod mentioned solar and wind generated power. I am thinking not of keeping the entire house powered up, but rather just the freezer. It is in an unfinished basement that stays cool even in the summer. It seems like it would not need a lot of electricity to keep things frozen. Any further ideas in that direction?

Thanks.

3DOP

PS: By the way, rain, I enjoyed your comments particularly, and further, Portland to Arizona? You were in Portland, right? You sound happy. I am glad. Forgive me if I am mixing you up with someone. I still liked your comments. 

Edited by 3DOP
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4 hours ago, 3DOP said:

I want to let you all know how much I have enjoyed all of your comments on this subject. My wife has become an avid prepper and she thinks we have about six months of food on the shelves. Not as preppers, we have purchased a "half-beef" that lasts around a year for us and are planning to do so again. I was interested in some of the ideas about generators. We have talked about a generator, but as smac points out, one still needs fuel for a generator for a long term power outage. I think rod mentioned solar and wind generated power. I am thinking not of keeping the entire house powered up, but rather just the freezer. It is in an unfinished basement that stays cool even in the summer. It seems like it would not need a lot of electricity to keep things frozen. Any further ideas in that direction?

Thanks.

3DOP

PS: By the way, rain, I enjoyed your comments particularly, and further, Portland to Arizona? You were in Portland, right? You sound happy. I am glad. Forgive me if I am mixing you up with someone. I still liked your comments. 

Thank you!

We agree with you on the generator.  The biggest reason we have it is for the freezer.  I can't really tell you more about it as that is more my husband's area.

As far as Portland goes - I moved from Utah.  @Raingirl lives in Portland. Easy to confuse the 2 of us with the name.

Edited by Rain
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5 hours ago, 3DOP said:

I want to let you all know how much I have enjoyed all of your comments on this subject. My wife has become an avid prepper and she thinks we have about six months of food on the shelves. Not as preppers, we have purchased a "half-beef" that lasts around a year for us and are planning to do so again. I was interested in some of the ideas about generators. We have talked about a generator, but as smac points out, one still needs fuel for a generator for a long term power outage. I think rod mentioned solar and wind generated power. I am thinking not of keeping the entire house powered up, but rather just the freezer. It is in an unfinished basement that stays cool even in the summer. It seems like it would not need a lot of electricity to keep things frozen. Any further ideas in that direction?

Thanks.

3DOP

PS: By the way, rain, I enjoyed your comments particularly, and further, Portland to Arizona? You were in Portland, right? You sound happy. I am glad. Forgive me if I am mixing you up with someone. I still liked your comments. 

Biodiesel can be made with things that store well, and is probably more reliable than solar or wind once you get the process down.

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