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Covid II: Medical Info and Implications


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6 minutes ago, pogi said:

Even with it mostly being college aged kids, it will show up as sure as the sun rises in the east.   College aged kids may not be as high risk for death, but they are known to fill the hospitals.  People have a misconception that morbidity cannot be severe for young people.   I can’t tell you how many 20 year olds I see ending up in the ER.

They do end up hospitalized and this is not counting ER visits... But 18-49 is an awfully large age category.

laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations

Edited by bsjkki
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"For aerosol-based 262 transmission, measures such as physical distancing by 6 feet would not be helpful in an indoor setting, 263 provide a false-sense of security and lead to exposures and outbreaks." https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.03.20167395v1.full.pdf

“We know that indoors, those distance rules don’t matter anymore,” Dr. Schofield said. It takes about five minutes for small aerosols to traverse the room even in still air, she added.

The six-foot minimum is “misleading, because people think they are protected indoors and they’re really not,” she said. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/health/coronavirus-aerosols-indoors.html

Edited by bsjkki
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1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

@pogi I talked with a doctor who said the flu shot is even more important this year than past years. When investigating younger covid deaths with no commodities, he said they found the patients had covid plus the flu and it was a very dangerous combination. Have you seen this at all. This was from a emergency room resident.

What does the bolded part mean?

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5 hours ago, pogi said:

I have never personally seen a double infection.  That is a scary thought.  Very good advice about the vaccine though.  I hope it is an effective one this year.

Me and daughter got ours today. Doctor said with her diabetes and other complications, she should say pretty much isolated save for mom and dad, her housemates until vaccine is available. Thankfully that is no big deal for her except her brother’s family. 

Edited by Calm
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From EDH:

Quote

One in seven infections are among healthcare workers. Reuters reported on Thursday that healthcare workers account for one-seventh of all coronavirus cases reported to the World Health Organization. A study published in the Lancet at the end of July found that the risk of infection was three times higher among frontline workers compared with the general public.

 

Quote

At least 40 percent of school employees are at high risk of COVID. A study published Thursday in the medical journal Health Affairs found that between 42 and 51.4 percent of all school employees met the definition for being at increased risk of severe COVID-19. At-risk school employees had at least one of the factors listed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that would make them more likely to have more serious symptoms. These factors include diabetes, heart disease, and being 65 or older. Researchers noted that obesity was the main element that put school employees at greater risk.

 

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On 9/19/2020 at 2:03 AM, Calm said:

These factors include diabetes, heart disease, and being 65 or older. Researchers noted that obesity was the main element that put school employees at greater risk.

I would hope school districts had alternative/online only opportunities for these teachers. I have noticed a pattern, when younger people have had severe covid issues or died, they are usually very overweight. We need not to be 'politically correct' and make sure people are aware of their higher risk.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/why-covid-19-more-deadly-people-obesity-even-if-theyre-young

"We didn’t understand early on what a major risk factor obesity was. … It’s not until more recently that we’ve realized the devastating impact of obesity, particularly in younger people,” says Anne Dixon, a physician-scientist who studies obesity and lung disease at the University of Vermont. That “may be one reason for the devastating impact of COVID-19 in the United States, where 40% of adults are obese.”

People with obesity are more likely than normal-weight people to have other diseases that are independent risk factors for severe COVID-19, including heart disease, lung disease, and diabetes. They are also prone to metabolic syndrome, in which blood sugar levels, fat levels, or both are unhealthy and blood pressure may be high. A recent study from Tulane University of 287 hospitalized COVID-19 patients found that metabolic syndrome itself substantially increased the risks of ICU admission, ventilation, and death.

But on its own, “BMI [body mass index] remains a strong independent risk factor” for severe COVID-19, according to several studies that adjusted for age, sex, social class, diabetes, and heart conditions, says Naveed Sattar, an expert in cardiometabolic disease at the University of Glasgow. “And it seems to be a linear line, straight up.”

Edited by bsjkki
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CDC updates https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/20/health/cdc-coronavirus-airborne-transmission/index.html

"The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated guidance on its website to say coronavirus can commonly spread "through respiratory droplets or small particles, such as those in aerosols," which are produced even when a person breathes.

"Airborne viruses, including COVID-19, are among the most contagious and easily spread," the site now says.
Previously, the CDC page said that Covid-19 was thought to spread mainly between people in close contact -- about 6 feet -- and "through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes or talks."
 
 
Which states a draft version was accidentally uploaded Friday and they are still working on the update.
"A draft version of proposed changes to these recommendations was posted in error to the agency’s official website. CDC is currently updating its recommendations regarding airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). Once this process has been completed, the update language will be posted."
 
🤦‍♀️
 
Edited by bsjkki
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17 hours ago, bsjkki said:

I would hope school districts had alternative/online only opportunities for these teachers. I have noticed a pattern, when younger people have had severe covid issues or died, they are usually very overweight. We need not to be 'politically correct' and make sure people are aware of their higher risk.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/why-covid-19-more-deadly-people-obesity-even-if-theyre-young

"We didn’t understand early on what a major risk factor obesity was. … It’s not until more recently that we’ve realized the devastating impact of obesity, particularly in younger people,” says Anne Dixon, a physician-scientist who studies obesity and lung disease at the University of Vermont. That “may be one reason for the devastating impact of COVID-19 in the United States, where 40% of adults are obese.”

People with obesity are more likely than normal-weight people to have other diseases that are independent risk factors for severe COVID-19, including heart disease, lung disease, and diabetes. They are also prone to metabolic syndrome, in which blood sugar levels, fat levels, or both are unhealthy and blood pressure may be high. A recent study from Tulane University of 287 hospitalized COVID-19 patients found that metabolic syndrome itself substantially increased the risks of ICU admission, ventilation, and death.

But on its own, “BMI [body mass index] remains a strong independent risk factor” for severe COVID-19, according to several studies that adjusted for age, sex, social class, diabetes, and heart conditions, says Naveed Sattar, an expert in cardiometabolic disease at the University of Glasgow. “And it seems to be a linear line, straight up.”

Obesity being linked to a higher mortality rate has been known since April.

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14 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Obesity being linked to a higher mortality rate has been known since April.

Yes, but we keep learning more. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-19-obesity-doctors-studying-link-between-excess-weight-severe-n1239530

"Obesity may be one reason some countries or communities have been hit hard by the virus, researchers say. In the United States, the obesity rate among adults has climbed for decades and is now at 42 percent. The rate is even higher among Black and Hispanic Americans.

A person who is 5 feet, 7 inches tall is considered obese starting at around 190 pounds, or a body mass index of 30. The increased risk for serious COVID-19 illness appears more pronounced with extreme obesity, or a BMI of 40 or higher."

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1 hour ago, Tacenda said:

I'm sure Kwaku is not feeling good about what he and co-founder of Young/Dumb did. https://universe.byu.edu/2020/09/05/young-dumb-dance-party-bookends-first-week-of-classes/

My understanding is he thinks it is more likely the case that it is students coming from areas that had more cases and bringing it here rather than the dances spreading it. Unless students who have it are admitting they went to the dances and then got sick and that is common to most, not sure how to change his belief. 

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10 hours ago, Tacenda said:

A few thoughts:

First, I think we should treat each other with respect and civility.

Second, I think politicians are nevertheless answerable to their constituency.  Citizens are at liberty to critique and speak to public servants, and to disagree with their decisions.

Third, I'm not sure what "harass" means in this context.  The article says city council members are "being harassed online."  What does that mean?  Surely politicians needs to be able to endure some real criticism for their decisions.  "If you can't stand the heat..." and all that. 

Fourth, the article continues: "Council Chair George Handley said some emails have escalated from cyber bullying to violent threats."  Handley "declined to offer examples to FOX13, who said the emails are not fit to be seen by the public," that he has not "pressed any charges but I certainly would say people have been engaging in what is known in the law as electronic communication harassment," and that some emaisls contain "violent threats that were enough to get police attention."  Clearly "violent threats" are utterly inappropriate and unacceptable, and should be addressed by law enforcement under the law.  But "cyber bullying?"  What does that mean?  

Fifth, that the City Council issued the mask mandate by overriding the mayor's veto probably did not sit will with some.  I understand the sentiment, but the City Council seems to have had the legal authority to pass the mandate.  A law-abiding society needs to be willing to follow laws that are not necessarily popular in the moment.  If a person dislikes the mandate, then he should fight it within the bounds of the law.  And with civility and decorum.  

Sixth, I wonder if the mixed messaging about masks has created some frustration.  First we were told to not wear masks, then we were told we must wear them, and that the prior contradictory advice was, in essence, intended to deceive the public.  In May the New England Journal of Medicine told us that "wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection," that the risk of "catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space" is "minimal," that "the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic," but nevertheless that the for healthcare workers "masks serve symbolic roles" as "talismans that may help increase health care workers’ perceived sense of safety, well-being, and trust in their hospitals."  The mask mandate becomes more controversial as more people become aware of such things.

Thanks,

-Smac

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5 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johan_Giesecke

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/let-coronavirus-spread-through-under-60-population-dáil-committee-told-1.4361858

 

"Keep your schools open."

"Allow a controlled spread for people below 60."

The poor and marginalized are hurt most by the epidemic.

Don't put all your hopes into a vaccine.

 

And then this guy said this at the same meeting.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_McConkey

“In my view there are three steps are needed now: one is to bring the number of cases down because if they keep rising we will end up with increasing numbers of ICU, death and disability,” he warned.

“The only tool we have is social and physical distancing, and I propose we do that to not just flatten the curve, not just push the curve down, but crush the curve completely into the ground and do better even than last time in May and June.

“The second thing is to keep cases down through contact tracing and outbreak investigation, sequencing, face-to-face contacts, pop-up testing, mobile teams, local teams of contact tracing, isolation, quarantine, local leadership so we can control any possibility of it coming back.

“We have let it out of control again.

“The next is the control of it coming into Ireland again and that is through the control of incoming travellers to Ireland.”

Is it a wonder people are confused? https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/expert-says-ireland-should-allow-spread-of-covid-19-among-people-under-60-39556213.html

Edited by bsjkki
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13 minutes ago, smac97 said:

A few thoughts:

First, I think we should treat each other with respect and civility.

Second, I think politicians are nevertheless answerable to their constituency.  Citizens are at liberty to critique and speak to public servants, and to disagree with their decisions.

Third, I'm not sure what "harass" means in this context.  The article says city council members are "being harassed online."  What does that mean?  Surely politicians needs to be able to endure some real criticism for their decisions.  "If you can't stand the heat..." and all that. 

Fourth, the article continues: "Council Chair George Handley said some emails have escalated from cyber bullying to violent threats."  Handley "declined to offer examples to FOX13, who said the emails are not fit to be seen by the public," that he has not "pressed any charges but I certainly would say people have been engaging in what is known in the law as electronic communication harassment," and that some emaisls contain "violent threats that were enough to get police attention."  Clearly "violent threats" are utterly inappropriate and unacceptable, and should be addressed by law enforcement under the law.  But "cyber bullying?"  What does that mean?  

Fifth, that the City Council issued the mask mandate by overriding the mayor's veto probably did not sit will with some.  I understand the sentiment, but the City Council seems to have had the legal authority to pass the mandate.  A law-abiding society needs to be willing to follow laws that are not necessarily popular in the moment.  If a person dislikes the mandate, then he should fight it within the bounds of the law.  And with civility and decorum.  

Sixth, I wonder if the mixed messaging about masks has created some frustration.  First we were told to not wear masks, then we were told we must wear them, and that the prior contradictory advice was, in essence, intended to deceive the public.  In May the New England Journal of Medicine told us that "wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection," that the risk of "catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space" is "minimal," that "the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic," but nevertheless that the for healthcare workers "masks serve symbolic roles" as "talismans that may help increase health care workers’ perceived sense of safety, well-being, and trust in their hospitals."  The mask mandate becomes more controversial as more people become aware of such things.

Thanks,

-Smac

It's time for people to get over the changing of advice to wear a mask.  They changed this last April after only about 1.5 months of experience with covid being here in the US.  That was 5 months ago.  There are so many scientific and medical sources besides the CDC that say to wear a mask. Our prophet, who is a doctor, says wear a mask. Yet people get stuck on this old news.  

 

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34 minutes ago, smac97 said:

A few thoughts:

First, I think we should treat each other with respect and civility.

Second, I think politicians are nevertheless answerable to their constituency.  Citizens are at liberty to critique and speak to public servants, and to disagree with their decisions.

Third, I'm not sure what "harass" means in this context.  The article says city council members are "being harassed online."  What does that mean?  Surely politicians needs to be able to endure some real criticism for their decisions.  "If you can't stand the heat..." and all that. 

Fourth, the article continues: "Council Chair George Handley said some emails have escalated from cyber bullying to violent threats."  Handley "declined to offer examples to FOX13, who said the emails are not fit to be seen by the public," that he has not "pressed any charges but I certainly would say people have been engaging in what is known in the law as electronic communication harassment," and that some emaisls contain "violent threats that were enough to get police attention."  Clearly "violent threats" are utterly inappropriate and unacceptable, and should be addressed by law enforcement under the law.  But "cyber bullying?"  What does that mean?  

Fifth, that the City Council issued the mask mandate by overriding the mayor's veto probably did not sit will with some.  I understand the sentiment, but the City Council seems to have had the legal authority to pass the mandate.  A law-abiding society needs to be willing to follow laws that are not necessarily popular in the moment.  If a person dislikes the mandate, then he should fight it within the bounds of the law.  And with civility and decorum.  

Sixth, I wonder if the mixed messaging about masks has created some frustration.  First we were told to not wear masks, then we were told we must wear them, and that the prior contradictory advice was, in essence, intended to deceive the public.  In May the New England Journal of Medicine told us that "wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection," that the risk of "catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space" is "minimal," that "the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic," but nevertheless that the for healthcare workers "masks serve symbolic roles" as "talismans that may help increase health care workers’ perceived sense of safety, well-being, and trust in their hospitals."  The mask mandate becomes more controversial as more people become aware of such things.

Thanks,

-Smac

Okay, don't wear one, where it's not asked then. But I feel both protected and protector of others. You don't think that it can stop a sneeze from getting in your mouth or nose from others? Or your sneeze getting in someone's mouth or nose? 

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8 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

This can't be true! But I guess it is, why would the CDC delete wording in the last two days that airborne droplets could cause covid??

I'm flabbergasted, is this a political move? https://www.livescience.com/cdc-updates-airborne-spread-coronavirus-guidelines.html

From here

Quote

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials continued to modify the agency's guidelines on COVID-19 Monday, this time pulling down a days-old change suggesting that the virus can spread from person to person among those greater than 6 feet apart, particularly indoors.

The agency's guidance has long said that respiratory droplets, emitted from the nose and mouth of an infected person, "are the main way the virus spreads."

But an update posted Friday said these microscopic particles could travel distances greater than 6 feet, particularly in poorly ventilated indoor spaces, like "restaurants and fitness classes."

That language, however, was removed late Monday morning.

A top CDC official told the Washington Post that the information "does not reflect our current state of knowledge."

"A draft version of proposed changes to these recommendations was posted in error to the agency's official website," the CDC said in a statement posted on the guidelines home page.

This article in the New York Times, published 9/22/2020 heavily implies - without evidence - that the confusion was political ("The {CDC} — where Trump administration appointees are intermixed with career scientists — posted virus guidance on its website late last week stating that the 'main way the virus spreads' was through air droplets from people’s mouths. But yesterday, the C.D.C. quietly removed that language from the site.") (emphasis added).  

This article, also in the Times but published in March, expressed hope that COVID would lead to big government socialism.   

This article, published in March, was critical of both the FDA and the CDC, but the critique was their apparent bureaucratic mishandling of COVID testing ("existing regulations and red tape"), rather than politicking.

Per this article, published in April, Ashish K. Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said that CDC was failing in its traditional role as a national clearinghouse for data about COVID.  This blog post contains a similar critique.

That we are asking whether medical guidelines are being provided or changed based on "political" considerations is a big part of the problem.  Whether by mere perception or reality, COVID has unfortunately become heavily politicized.

Thanks,

-Smac

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14 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

And then this guy said this at the same meeting.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_McConkey

“In my view there are three steps are needed now: one is to bring the number of cases down because if they keep rising we will end up with increasing numbers of ICU, death and disability,” he warned.

“The only tool we have is social and physical distancing, and I propose we do that to not just flatten the curve, not just push the curve down, but crush the curve completely into the ground and do better even than last time in May and June.

“The second thing is to keep cases down through contact tracing and outbreak investigation, sequencing, face-to-face contacts, pop-up testing, mobile teams, local teams of contact tracing, isolation, quarantine, local leadership so we can control any possibility of it coming back.

“We have let it out of control again.

“The next is the control of it coming into Ireland again and that is through the control of incoming travellers to Ireland.”

Is it a wonder people are confused? https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/expert-says-ireland-should-allow-spread-of-covid-19-among-people-under-60-39556213.html

It doesn't surprise me about people being confused by overall plans of how things should be done.  Countries are doing things very differently.  States and even cities right next to each other do things differently.  There is little experience this and not enough information known.  Until then the opinions are going to be wide open about work, schools systems, travel etc.  

I think through this we just need to do our best to help stop the spread and have patience with the process and other people.  

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10 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Okay, don't wear one, where it's not asked then.

I have followed the instructions and guidelines from state and local leaders regarding masks.

10 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

But I feel both protected and protector of others. You don't think that it can stop a sneeze from getting in your mouth or nose from others? Or your sneeze getting in someone's mouth or nose? 

I am erring the side of caution and following the promulgated guidelines, but I have some real questions about the efficacy of masks.

I am also quite concerned about the diminution of civil liberties in many areas, with COVID reactions being the thin end of the wedge.

Thanks,

-Smac

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