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Covid II: Medical Info and Implications


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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Danzo said:

I'll wager I've convinced more hesitant people to vaccinate by listening to their concerns, acknowledging where thy have valid points and pointing out the pros and cons of getting vaccinated as I see it and explaining how I saw the upside of vaccination for my self and my family to be significant and the downsides to be minimal.

At this point, our culture is more likely to respond to people they trust.  I read one survey (might have been posted here) that said people weren’t even asking their health care professionals about the vaccine, but listening to others they trust even if they had no medical background…it makes no sense to me, would you let your neighbor be your surgeon?  But it is our culture and we need to do what works…in both short and long term.  But outside going to grassroots organizations and investing in educating those willing to be educated and then supporting, including financially, their efforts to get their people vaccinated and otherwise engaging in safe behaviour, I don’t know if we have  handle on what could work in our country.

Politicians in general and by extension government officials are not generally trusted in our culture these days very much (guessing from observation, should look that up).  Outreach vaccination programs that depend on getting local leaders, spiritual and social, behind the vaccination effort show greater success that pointing to CDC guidelines.

So your experience does not surprise me at all.

As far as noble lies…I would have preferred an approach at the beginning for masks that stated ‘we need the best stuff for frontline workers because they are the ones most likely to be in frequent contact’ and enact an enforced law country wide that limited selling that stuff…but our fed and state systems don’t work that way.  I would have also added a full fact instruction on masks with always the condition attached “this is what we know now and have to work with, this will change as we learn more through science and experience and we are sorry that this will cause confusion and we will do our best to explain in ways to limit the confusion as much as possible”.  But even if the government did it that way, I am not impressed by the media transmitting the info, so while I think it the lesser choice, I can understand why some thought short term benefit outweighed the long term cost.

Edited by Calm
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5 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

You seem to think that news pundits are the CDC. The hysteria was whipped up by people after ratings.

The whole free press thing and all, but a huge part of me would love to see fines given out for careless reporting on medical issues.  Probably could justify that on overall costs saved the country from losses due to health, but where does the line get drawn?

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5 hours ago, Danzo said:

People who work for the government like to project a degree of certainty that really just isn't there.

I am guessing this is dependent to a great extent of one’s budget depending on someone who doesn’t understand the work, but controls the purse strings.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Danzo said:

In the states where I live,

You travel a lot or is this a typo (not criticizing, if you do travel that much, it is an interesting peek into your life)?

Edited by Calm
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5 hours ago, ksfisher said:

The stake has left the decision up to the bishops. 

This is an example IMO how even with highly trusted leadership (President Nelson), it is the local leaders that make the most impact.

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4 hours ago, Danzo said:

the long run, credibility is more inportant than saying things just to manipulate people.

I agree with this when one can control the message.  I am less certain about it when instead of going to the source, many in our culture depend on media that is highly influenced by ratings and friends and acquaintances who may listen to government sources or who may listen to conspiracy theories or anything in between.

I don’t know what would work best with what we got.  The information system in our country seems broken beyond repair in some ways since we don’t have the ability really to enforce accuracy in media or have a system to control local leaders from manipulating for their own benefit (thinking mainly politicians here as obvious, well known examples, but given some of the stuff even doctors with hobby horses have put out…)

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2 hours ago, Calm said:

I applaud your ward.  There are a few that are reporting this, but the vast majority of my friends and others reporting are saying very limited masks (some immune compromised individuals still wear them in low compliance wards), it is all anecdotal of course.  It seems it is dependent on the attitude of the bishop…but that is a guess and this is anecdotal. Maybe those with compliant wards don’t need to talk about it.

We are completely normal for church. No masks that I can see on anyone. No every other pew. Passing the sacrament as normal (Deacon's wear masks so not completely normal.) Our time is now going to be the full 2 hours. We were ending 10 minutes early. We no longer stream services either. When visiting Idaho, I didn't see anybody in masks. I do wonder how things will change in the next week but our case rates don't warrant it. We have had no hospital admissions for a couple of days and no deaths either. What I found interesting when looking at the local charts for my local 3 counties, the most conservative county, had the highest vaccination rate with over 71 percent vaccinated. Vaccine hesitancy can't only be blamed on politics. There are other factors in play.

*In the 70+ age group, over 95 % are vaccinated. In the 12-18 over 51% have gotten at least one vaccine.

Edited by bsjkki
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1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

What I found interesting when looking at the local charts for my local 3 counties, the most conservative county, had the highest vaccination rate with over 71 percent vaccinated. Vaccine hesitancy can't only be blamed on politics. There are other factors in play.

If I had to guess the answer would be wealth. The wealthiest red areas are about as well vaxxed as your wealthy blue one, if not more so.

Misinformation is for consumption by the masses and not the elite.

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2 hours ago, bsjkki said:

We are completely normal for church. No masks that I can see on anyone. No every other pew. Passing the sacrament as normal (Deacon's wear masks so not completely normal.) Our time is now going to be the full 2 hours. We were ending 10 minutes early. We no longer stream services either. When visiting Idaho, I didn't see anybody in masks. I do wonder how things will change in the next week but our case rates don't warrant it. We have had no hospital admissions for a couple of days and no deaths either. 

I think this is pretty standard for the United States (i.e., kfisher's ward is an extreme outlier). Multiple Utah and Arizona wards within the last few weeks were nearly mask-free, other than one couple in each (these tend to be young and apparently healthy; apparently making a statement by wearing masks. One of these couples we know, and they do continue to wear masks, even though no one else is, not out of fear, but to show they care). We only saw one person in a mask, period in the Jordan River Temple and Gilbert Temple (the Gilbert workers were discouraging mask wearing). 

Where there is heavy mask-wearing in the U.S., it's pretty clearly leader emphasis driving that. 

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Yesterday's hospital data from the Delta outbreak in our neighbouring jurisdiction:

  • 26.1 per cent of those hospitalised are in ICU
  • Of those in ICU:
    • 11.32 per cent are in their 20s
    • 7.54 per cent are in their 30s
    • 1.89 per cent are in their 40s
    • 33.96 per cent are in their 50s
    • 26.41 per cent are in their 60s
    • 16.98 per cent are in their 70s
    • 1.89 per cent are in their 80s
    • none are in their teens or 90s
  • Of those in ICU, 50.94 per cent are on ventilators (no age breakdowns given)

People may be interested what things look like in a place where, owing to a lack of vaccines, vaccination rates are much lower than in the US (and heavily skewed towards the elderly).

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47 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

Yesterday's hospital data from the Delta outbreak in our neighbouring jurisdiction:

  • 26.1 per cent of those hospitalised are in ICU
  • Of those in ICU:
    • 11.32 per cent are in their 20s
    • 7.54 per cent are in their 30s
    • 1.89 per cent are in their 40s
    • 33.96 per cent are in their 50s
    • 26.41 per cent are in their 60s
    • 16.98 per cent are in their 70s
    • 1.89 per cent are in their 80s
    • none are in their teens or 90s
  • Of those in ICU, 50.94 per cent are on ventilators (no age breakdowns given)

People may be interested what things look like in a place where, owing to a lack of vaccines, vaccination rates are much lower than in the US (and heavily skewed towards the elderly).

This probably should be balanced by demographic info because it would mean something very different if there were few kids or young adults in the community while a mass of elderly or the reverse. 

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On 7/30/2021 at 12:47 PM, Danzo said:

I had to explain to my kid that the risk of him getting a drivers license worried me much more (and should worry him much more) than  his chance of dying of COVID. 

That is a very good example that I use with my patients who feel anxiety after learning about all the different infectious diseases in the areas they will be visiting.  I always tell them that there is much greater risk in driving their car everyday.  I let them know that I am not trying to scare them from going on their trip, but to help them respect the risks they are facing and how to mitigate those risks in the most effective ways possible.    What is the first thing we do when we get into a car?  We put on our seat belts!  When we drive we try to use preventive measures and safe/defensive driving techniques to stay safe.  Getting a vaccine and wearing a mask is no different.  There are 2 groups of people, those who wear seat belts because they are aware of the risks and have a healthy dose of respect for the awful potential consequences of not wearing a seat belt.  And those who wear seat belts only because they are mandated.  And maybe a third group who simply don't wear seat belts despite mandates and risks.  Which group is the most wise and responsible?  I would hope that if seat belts were not mandated, most people would continue to wear them because it is the wise thing to do.   Of course we should teach our children to have a healthy fear and respect for the potential consequences of driving unsafely.  That is the responsible thing to do!  Why should it be any different with vaccines and masks?   

I remember the graphic pictures in drivers ed my instructor showed us to instill a healthy respect for the dangers of driving unsafely and/or without a seat belt.  It worked!  I wasn't terrified of driving after that, but I was afraid of driving unsafely and without a seat belt (as it should be). 

Edited by pogi
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On 7/30/2021 at 11:26 AM, Danzo said:

I suspect that the CDC really had no Idea when they made each of those reccomendations and the change in recomendations were a change in the risk tolerance of those making the recomendations rather than changes in  how viruses actually behave.  

Or...

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/30/1022867219/cdc-study-provincetown-delta-vaccinated-breakthrough-mask-guidance

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3 hours ago, bluebell said:

When I was in the temple in June the worker told us we could choose to wear a mask or not.

That I can understand. Actively trying to get someone not to wear a mask makes no sense to me. 

 

2 hours ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

Exactly. It's bullying. And from what I can tell about the current American context, it could easily feel like political bullying. And that should never happen in the temple.

It didn't feel like bullying at all to us. We had the masks in hand (my wife, my son, and I), because we expected it to be required or requested, and the sister at the door (leading into the large room with the recommend desk) said in a friendly way, "Oh, you don't have to wear those!" Had we said that we would prefer to, she would have said something like, "Of course, no problem at all." We didn't feel any pressure, and were frankly thrilled that that was the atmosphere there (from the men at the recommend desk, to the workers throughout the temple, to the sealer and the sealer-in-training, most of whom were quite to very elderly), no one had one on or brought up the subject. 

We were more surprised at Jordan River for our niece's endowment session. We thought Utah would be more mask-stringent, but there was only one patron in the hall with a mask on, in a temple with a lot more traffic. 

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1 hour ago, pogi said:

I have been reading up in the Provincetown breakout and there were a number of longtime attendees who were complaining that the hot indoor spots were not carding anyone (vaccination cards), not requiring masks, and were wall to wall people dancing. Add to that a lot of intimate contact, it is not the least bit surprising that it happened.  Like spring break or Carnival.

However, with most viruses is it surprising that the viral load is comparable?  Or is this typical virus behaviour?  And is there a possibility that even if the amount of virus is the same, could it be weakened by being hosted in a vaccinated body?  Iow, is this viral load just viruses that have perched in a convenient mouth or nose or have they been impacted by the body environment?  If it doesn’t go into a major infection, does this just mean mouths and noses make good Petri dishes, but elsewhere in the body there is more resistance/antibody presence?

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1 hour ago, rongo said:

 

It didn't feel like bullying at all to us. We had the masks in hand (my wife, my son, and I), because we expected it to be required or requested, and the sister at the door (leading into the large room with the recommend desk) said in a friendly way, "Oh, you don't have to wear those!" Had we said that we would prefer to, she would have said something like, "Of course, no problem at all." We didn't feel any pressure, and were frankly thrilled that that was the atmosphere there (from the men at the recommend desk, to the workers throughout the temple, to the sealer and the sealer-in-training, most of whom were quite to very elderly), no one had one on or brought up the subject. 

We were more surprised at Jordan River for our niece's endowment session. We thought Utah would be more mask-stringent, but there was only one patron in the hall with a mask on, in a temple with a lot more traffic. 

My suspicion is that the lax attitude of masks in Utah wards/temples will change shortly now that the CDC recommends masks for all due to the delta variant.  It was almost exactly 1 year ago that the Area Presidency asked members to wear face masks.  The church is pretty careful to follow CDC guidelines for the most part.  We have a more contagious and deadly variant.  We have children who can't be vaccinated.  We have vaccinated people transmitting the virus.  We have around half the population who is eligible for vaccine who is not vaccinated fully.  We have hospitals filling up again.  I won't be surprised one bit if we are asked to wear masks again.  It is sad that we have to be asked quite honestly.  We know how the church feels about masks and our civic duty in public health.  The church has been very careful to follow CDC guidelines and recommendations with masks and vaccines.  I just wish the rest of us would learn to follow their cue instead of being slow to act with a seeming need to be commanded in all things before doing the responsible thing. 

Edited by pogi
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46 minutes ago, Calm said:

However, with most viruses is it surprising that the viral load is comparable?  Or is this typical virus behaviour?  

I don't know enough about viral load with other vaccines/viruses to say if it is the same.  Many vaccines prevent you from getting symptomatic disease, but others prevent you from getting infected too (called sterilizing immunity).  I suspect that viral load is reduced with most vaccines that are not sterilizing, but I am not certain.  When we are speaking of viral load, we are specifically talking about the viral load in the nasal mucosa where the virus is easily transmissible. 

46 minutes ago, Calm said:

And is there a possibility that even if the amount of virus is the same, could it be weakened by being hosted in a vaccinated body?

No, it will be the same virus.  Attenuated (weakened) viruses only happen through mutation to the point that they are less able to replicate.  That is not happening here.  The virus is just as dangerous from a vaccinated person as it is from a non-vaccinated person, unfortunately. 

46 minutes ago, Calm said:

Iow, is this viral load just viruses that have perched in a convenient mouth or nose or have they been impacted by the body environment?  If it doesn’t go into a major infection, does this just mean mouths and noses make good Petri dishes, but elsewhere in the body there is more resistance/antibody presence?

 That's a good question.  I think this article explains it well, if I understand your question correctly. 

Quote

Although injected vaccines do reduce symptomatic COVID cases, and prevent a lot of severe illness, they may still allow for asymptomatic infection. A person might feel fine, but actually harbor the virus and be able to pass it on to others. The reason is that the coronavirus can temporarily take up residence in the mucosa—the moist, mucus-secreting surfaces of the nose and throat that serve as our first line of defense against inhaled viruses. Research with laboratory animals suggests that a coronavirus infection can linger in the nose even after it has been vanquished in the lungs. That means it might be possible to spread the coronavirus after vaccination.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/to-beat-covid-we-may-need-a-good-shot-in-the-nose/

There is some talk about developing a covid nasal vaccine (much like the flu nasal vaccine) which would help boost the immune defense in the mucosa and thus better prevent transmission of the virus.   

Edited by pogi
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13 hours ago, pogi said:

My suspicion is that the lax attitude of masks in Utah wards/temples will change shortly now that the CDC recommends masks for all due to the delta variant.  It was almost exactly 1 year ago that the Area Presidency asked members to wear face masks.  The church is pretty careful to follow CDC guidelines for the most part.  We have a more contagious and deadly variant.  We have children who can't be vaccinated.  We have vaccinated people transmitting the virus.  We have around half the population who is eligible for vaccine who is not vaccinated fully.  We have hospitals filling up again.  I won't be surprised one bit if we are asked to wear masks again.  It is sad that we have to be asked quite honestly.  We know how the church feels about masks and our civic duty in public health.  The church has been very careful to follow CDC guidelines and recommendations with masks and vaccines.  I just wish the rest of us would learn to follow their cue instead of being slow to act with a seeming need to be commanded in all things before doing the responsible thing. 

I think we will be asked to wear one again in Utah.  I doubt they would make it mandatory except in very liberal counties.  I don't think the church in Utah will imply it's mandatory again either, mostly because most people wouldn't do it this time.  They don't see a reason too anymore. 

In anti-mask people's minds, mask mandates haven't produced a positive result, and those who did wear one but despised it and thought it was useless, will be even more convinced that they were right if requests to wear masks comes back.

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Just now, Bernard Gui said:

I wish that streaming would become policy. So many folks who are home bound now have the opportunity to attend sacrament meeting. It would be sad to take that away.

I agree.

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