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Covid II: Medical Info and Implications


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5 hours ago, bsjkki said:

What is their vaccine availability like? I am wondering if this is planned to be the norm or whether it is reserving vaccines for adults first. They also might just be waiting for more data on vaccine effects on adolescents and children first.

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49 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

What is their vaccine availability like? I am wondering if this is planned to be the norm or whether it is reserving vaccines for adults first. They also might just be waiting for more data on vaccine effects on adolescents and children first.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/coronavirus/cdc-to-meet-on-rare-heart-inflammation-following-covid-vaccines/ar-AAKV90N?ocid=uxbndlbing

"The CDC previously disclosed that reports of heart inflammation were detected mostly in younger men and teenage boys following their second dose, and that there was a "higher number of observed than expected" cases in 16- to 24-year-olds. Last month, the CDC urged providers to "ask about prior COVID-19 vaccination" in patients with symptoms of heart inflammation.

"Risk-benefit considerations to determine whether to issue an emergency use authorization for use of a COVID-19 vaccine into healthy pediatric individuals will need to account for this information, and risk-benefit consideration will likely be different, not only compared to those for adults, but also they may be different for younger versus older pediatric groups," Dr. Marion Gruber, director of the FDA's vaccine office, said at the meeting. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-myocarditis-heart-inflammation-cdc/

Edited by bsjkki
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Numbers I last saw showed that teens were statistically more likely to suffer cardiovascular harm from getting Covid than they were to suffer an adverse vaccine reaction. That was after accounting for how rare it is for a teen to have a severe case.

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7 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Numbers I last saw showed that teens were statistically more likely to suffer cardiovascular harm from getting Covid than they were to suffer an adverse vaccine reaction. That was after accounting for how rare it is for a teen to have a severe case.

For those who are interested, here's the full report:  fda.gov/media/150054/download

And here are the numbers (about 0.002%):

Age group     Doses          Crude   Expected  Observed 
              Administered   rate    cases     cases

12–15 yrs     134,041        22.4     0–1      2 
16–17 yrs     2,258,932      35.0     2–19     79
18–24 yrs     9,776,719      20.6     8–83     196
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Having not slogged through this entire thread, I don't know if this video was posted already or not. If it has, my apologies. It discusses the lingering post-recovery chronic symptoms people are reporting. The comments to the video are informative, too, in a scary way. This was brought to my attention by one of my sons who got Covid, has recovered, but still has lingering symptoms.

It makes it even more imperative to do what you can to avoid this disease.

 

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We have hit a depressing milestone. The total worldwide number of deaths due to Covid this year have surpassed the total in the whole of 2020. While most of the developed world is making some solid strides towards defeating the virus the world as a whole is still in a lot of trouble.

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2 hours ago, The Nehor said:

We have hit a depressing milestone. The total worldwide number of deaths due to Covid this year have surpassed the total in the whole of 2020. While most of the developed world is making some solid strides towards defeating the virus the world as a whole is still in a lot of trouble.

And so many refuse to get the vaccine.

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9 hours ago, Tacenda said:

And so many refuse to get the vaccine.

The 2021 Darwin Awards will have plenty of candidates.

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16 minutes ago, Calm said:

The handbook and a First Presidency statement encourage vaccination to protect yourself and your family. Other similar admonitions have come from individual apostles.

"You may not like what comes from the authority of the Church. It may contradict your political views. It may contradict your social views. It may interfere with some of your social life. But if you listen to these things, as if from the mouth of the Lord himself, with patience and faith, the promise is that 'the gates of hell shall not prevail against you; yea, and the Lord God will disperse the powers of darkness from before you, and cause the heavens to shake for your good, and his name's glory.'" -Harold B. Lee

The warning has been given. Their fate is now their own.

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Posted (edited)

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/here-are-the-states-where-covid-19-is-increasing-2
 

Washington Post has an article titled something like Covid cases falling where vaccinated, rising where not, but it is behind a paywall, so no details at the moment.

I can read it on my Apple+ news, so here is quote...

Quote

As recently as 10 days ago, vaccination rates did not predict a difference in coronavirus cases, but immunization rates have diverged, and case counts in the highly vaccinated states are dropping quickly.

Vaccination is not always even within each state, and The Post found the connection between vaccine shots and coronavirus cases at the local level comparing more than 100 counties with low vaccination rates (fewer than 20 percent of residents vaccinated) and more than 700 with high vaccination rates (at least 40 percent vaccinated).

Counties with high vaccination had low coronavirus rates that are going down. In counties where few people are vaccinated, not only are there higher case rates, but the number of cases there also is growing.

They had some great charts showing differences in states and even counties.  Utah is unfortunately in the low vaccinated, high cases quadrant.  CO is in high vaccinated, high rate...one of four states in that category.

The problem are the variants apparently:

Quote

Experts said boosting vaccinations is the best avenue available for limiting the damage from the more transmissible variant of the virus first identified in India and known as delta.

“Without the variants, basically the epidemic would be over in the U.S.,” said Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist and the Fred Hutchison Cancer Research Center in Seattle. “The previous non-variant viruses have been dying fairly rapidly.”

The delta variant, which has thrown Britain’s once-promising path back to normal into disarray, already accounts for 6 percent of new infections in the United States, officials said this week. The variant has been detected in all but two states — Hawaii and South Dakota — according to a spokeswoman for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

 

Edited by Calm
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My wife and I got 2nd-doses on Friday (Pfizer both times) and felt gross for about 36 hours afterwards. Groggy, lethargic, with some very minor chills/aches/fever. We feel back to normal now. Both the in-laws had no reaction to the 2nd dose (both Pfizer).

My dad had an AZ-Pfizer cocktail and was tired after the 2nd dose, but nothing else. Mom had Pfizer-Moderna and same thing.

Edited by halconero
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Posted (edited)

I am looking at a map of Utah where it is in the higher new cases in the south. Looks like not St. George, but in the older polygamous communities, Colorado City for example. Wonder how fundamental mistakes they are these days.  Then way up in the north east corner, it is black. Cache county, bear lake area maybe. 
 

Lincoln County in Nevada, above Las Vegas isn’t doing very good either.

Edited by Calm
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14 hours ago, halconero said:

My dad had an AZ-Pfizer cocktail and was tired after the 2nd dose, but nothing else. Mom had Pfizer-Moderna and same thing.

Were these mistakes, or are they a part of trials to see if the different Covid vaccines are interchangeable?

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4 hours ago, pogi said:

Were these mistakes, or are they a part of trials to see if the different Covid vaccines are interchangeable?

No mistake or trial! I live in Canada, where the National Advisory Council on Immunization (NACI) approved interchangeability for 1st and 2nd doses. I haven't heard of any mRNA-1st and AZ-2nd combos, but I've heard of plenty Pfizer/Moderna, Moderna/Pfizer, and AZ/mRNA recipients.

Edited by halconero
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Canada has now surpassed every other country in per capita recipients with at least 1 dose. I think this will be an interesting natural experiment in two-ways:

1) We pursued a 1st dose strategy up here, prioritizing getting as many 1st shots into arms and delaying the rollout of 2nd doses. I wonder if the speed of 1st doses, when we finally got to supply, has encouraged take-up, as our coverage is looking to settle around 80-85% of eligible adults. FWIW, I think it will be shown as the correct choice. 70-80% coverage in two adults is more effective at reducing spread than 90-95% coverage in one adult, even if full-coverage is the eventual goal.

2) We're allowing vaccine cocktails. Put another way, you can get whatever vaccine is available to you in the moment of your 2nd dose, regardless of your first dose. So Pfizer/Moderna, Moderna/Pfizer, AZ/Pfizer, AZ/Moderna area all acceptable. AZ still has age-based restrictions, but that's about it.

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15 hours ago, Calm said:

I am looking at a map of Utah where it is in the higher new cases in the south.

Kane county looks like it has one of the highest rates in the state right now.

My family and I drove through Kanab a couple of months ago before the mask mandate was lifted.  We walked into a fast food place where there was a sign on the door saying masks were required and saw that, while all the patrons seemed to have masks on, none of the employees did.  We walked right back out.

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1 hour ago, halconero said:

Canada has now surpassed every other country in per capita recipients with at least 1 dose. I think this will be an interesting natural experiment in two-ways:

1) We pursued a 1st dose strategy up here, prioritizing getting as many 1st shots into arms and delaying the rollout of 2nd doses. I wonder if the speed of 1st doses, when we finally got to supply, has encouraged take-up, as our coverage is looking to settle around 80-85% of eligible adults. FWIW, I think it will be shown as the correct choice. 70-80% coverage in two adults is more effective at reducing spread than 90-95% coverage in one adult, even if full-coverage is the eventual goal.

2) We're allowing vaccine cocktails. Put another way, you can get whatever vaccine is available to you in the moment of your 2nd dose, regardless of your first dose. So Pfizer/Moderna, Moderna/Pfizer, AZ/Pfizer, AZ/Moderna area all acceptable. AZ still has age-based restrictions, but that's about it.

That is very interesting.  I agree, that sounds like a very smart and winning strategy to really focus on first dose.  

I am not as confident or comfortable with the untested interchangeability however - especially between the two different vaccine technologies.  It may be a winning gamble however, but there could be unknown risks, or it may have benign effect with no real boost to immunity and waste a LOT of money.  Time will tell, I guess.  

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27 minutes ago, pogi said:

That is very interesting.  I agree, that sounds like a very smart and winning strategy to really focus on first dose.  

I am not as confident or comfortable with the untested interchangeability however - especially between the two different vaccine technologies.  It may be a winning gamble however, but there could be unknown risks, or it may have benign effect with no real boost to immunity and waste a LOT of money.  Time will tell, I guess.  

I’m fine with Moderna/Pfizer interchangeability. As a friend told me, only the nerdiest of inorganic chemists could get excited about the differences.

I have more questions about AZ/mRNA mixing, but thankfully there has been some testing, with positive results as far as immune response goes. I agree re the risk from adverse reactions. As you say, time will tell.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01359-3

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https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/covid19-lab-leak-evidence-overwhelming-experts-say/news-story/d8fa0dd0b3469efa3bfb5788b0459e3a

There is now “overwhelming” evidence that Covid-19 was created in a Wuhan lab, according top scientists, who say the chance that SARS-CoV-2 emerged naturally in animals in China is “one in a million”.

Steven Quay and Richard Muller, who earlier this month published an explosive opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal laying out the scientific case for the lab-leak theory, have told an online conference that the world risks a biological world war if so-called “gain of function” research is not shut down immediately.

Dr Quay, chief executive of pharmaceutical company Atossa Therapeutics, told the Washington DC-based Hudson Institute that advances in virus and vaccine research had “opened the floodgates where you can have a bioweapon in the morning and have a vaccine in the afternoon”, The Australian first reported.

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22 minutes ago, smac97 said:

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/covid19-lab-leak-evidence-overwhelming-experts-say/news-story/d8fa0dd0b3469efa3bfb5788b0459e3a

There is now “overwhelming” evidence that Covid-19 was created in a Wuhan lab, according top scientists, who say the chance that SARS-CoV-2 emerged naturally in animals in China is “one in a million”.

Steven Quay and Richard Muller, who earlier this month published an explosive opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal laying out the scientific case for the lab-leak theory, have told an online conference that the world risks a biological world war if so-called “gain of function” research is not shut down immediately.

Dr Quay, chief executive of pharmaceutical company Atossa Therapeutics, told the Washington DC-based Hudson Institute that advances in virus and vaccine research had “opened the floodgates where you can have a bioweapon in the morning and have a vaccine in the afternoon”, The Australian first reported.

Not looking to debate on this, and I personally find the lab hypothesis very plausible, but Dr Quay is by no means an expert. I read his bayesian analysis of the thing, and found that he continually asserted things well outside his area of expertise with no sources, so his 99 percent might need to be taken with a grain of salt. 

You can find his paper here: https://zenodo.org/record/4477081#.YM3-q-ROLDs

https://drquay.com

 

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8 hours ago, smac97 said:

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/covid19-lab-leak-evidence-overwhelming-experts-say/news-story/d8fa0dd0b3469efa3bfb5788b0459e3a

There is now “overwhelming” evidence that Covid-19 was created in a Wuhan lab, according top scientists, who say the chance that SARS-CoV-2 emerged naturally in animals in China is “one in a million”.

Steven Quay and Richard Muller, who earlier this month published an explosive opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal laying out the scientific case for the lab-leak theory, have told an online conference that the world risks a biological world war if so-called “gain of function” research is not shut down immediately.

Dr Quay, chief executive of pharmaceutical company Atossa Therapeutics, told the Washington DC-based Hudson Institute that advances in virus and vaccine research had “opened the floodgates where you can have a bioweapon in the morning and have a vaccine in the afternoon”, The Australian first reported.

It is plausible and possible but the evidence is not “overwhelming”.

Saying the chance of it happening naturally are “one in a million” is not that rare considering how many millions of animals there are and how it happened regularly throughout history. It is rare but it does happen and the earth being big and having lots of chances for it to happen, it happens more than we would like.

It is like claiming that it is as unlikely as winning the lottery but while an individual’s chances are low it is pretty routine for someone to win. It is also pretty routine for some deadly virus to make the jump every few decades.

Edited by The Nehor
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