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Covid II: Medical Info and Implications


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13 minutes ago, Calm said:

From my Med app...

Is anyone else seeing ads to join Covid studies?  I am seeing a number of them, they seem heavily targeted to minorities and women...at least the ones popping up for me. 
 

 

How does he expect us to get down to the baseline?  

Sometimes it seems like these doctors are confusing "in perfect world..." and "the reality we live in."

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1 hour ago, bluebell said:

How does he expect us to get down to the baseline?  

By following the guidelines.

1 hour ago, bluebell said:

Sometimes it seems like these doctors are confusing "in perfect world..." and "the reality we live in."

I think the reality we live in with people being unwilling (not incapable) of following the guidelines is what is depressing him. 

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46 minutes ago, pogi said:

By following the guidelines.

I think the reality we live in with people being unwilling (not incapable) of following the guidelines is what is depressing him. 

Canada had zero deaths yesterday (I think it was yesterday)....while very different than the US in many ways (though culture in Alberta where we were wasn’t that much different), it shows imo what has happened here wasn’t inevitable to the extent it has. 

Edited by Calm
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7 minutes ago, Calm said:

Canada has zero deaths....

Serious? As in Canada...the whole country...Canada? I had no idea. That is absolutely remarkable. 

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-zero-coronavirus-covid-deaths-first-time/

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As of Friday evening, over 6 million people had been tested for COVID-19 in Canada, 2.1% of which came back positive. Some 702 new cases were reported on Friday, but no new deaths, the Public Health Agency of Canada reported. 

Reading this article it appears there was one new death, but a previously reported one was removed as in error, so it zeroed out...so technically one new death. But still remarkable. 

Edited by Calm
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26 minutes ago, Calm said:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-zero-coronavirus-covid-deaths-first-time/

Reading this article it appears there was one new death, but a previously reported one was removed as in error, so it zeroed out...so technically one new death. But still remarkable. 

That is really impressive  We are close to that many positive cases in Utah alone.  And our counts are relatively low!   

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The death toll from a Maine wedding is growing. The virus toll from a superspreader wedding keeps getting larger. In early August, a couple held a 62-person dinner at an inn in Millinocket, Maine. The occasion has now been labeled a superspreader event, triggering more than 175 infections and leading to five deaths, according to US News & World Report on Tuesday. Infected guests spread the illness, causing secondary outbreaks at the York County Jail and the Maplecrest Rehabilitation and Living Center in Madison in Maine.

Austria's leader says a second wave has begun. Chancellor Sebastian Kurz told the public Sunday, “What we are experiencing at the moment is the beginning of the second wave in Austria,” according to the Associated Press. He noted that cases were steadily rising, and family gatherings, birthday parties, and other private events were largely to blame.

Two separate reports that together suggest to me we may really need to rethink how we approach family celebrations. They are very important to family mental health and many are happening without being turned into superspreader events, but think of the impact on that family member who gets to live with the thought they harmed their family because they chose to not wear a mask or had a large gathering rather than just a few, etc. 

But we are 7 months into this...what is going to change people’s minds at this point?  
 

PS:  don’t need to share thoughts on what might help or if we actually need help if that goes into politics...

Edited by Calm
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A "front line hero" died in Kentucky. Med Center Health in Kentucky announced that Rebecca Shadowen, MD, a specialist in infectious diseases and healthcare epidemiology at Med Center Health and a leader with the Bowling Green–Warren County Coronavirus Workgroup, passed away this past weekend following a four-month battle with COVID-19. She was 62. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear encouraged people to follow her advice and “wear a mask in her honor.”

Four months...this is not a gentle death. I don’t get those who say “if I die, I die”.

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9 minutes ago, Calm said:

Two separate reports that together suggest to me we may really need to rethink how we approach family celebrations. They are very important to family mental health and many are happening without being turned into superspreader events, but think of the impact on that family member who gets to live with the thought they harmed their family because they chose to not wear a mask or had a large gathering rather than just a few, etc. 

But we are 7 months into this...what is going to change people’s minds at this point?  
 

PS:  don’t need to share thoughts on what might help or if we actually need help if that goes into politics...

I'm guilty, my sisters from California have visited a couple of times this summer,  bringing about 10/12 people together at a couple of different restaurants for breakfast. No masks while eating, hoping that no one gets sick. 

I wonder if we should have just toughed it out all of us, like those in other countries. But sounds like some other countries are starting to rise in numbers now. Will this ever end? It's terribly depressing. I feel for the rising generation, will they have one thing after another to deal with in the coming years.  

 

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It has only been 7 months...maybe that is long enough to realize changing people’s behaviour is like trying to herd cats, but it is nothing in comparison to many disasters including wars that last for years...and people adapted.

The US has gone through an unusually stable and prosperous past 50/60 years. And even back then, instability was not widespread or long lasting.  The usual people suffered and the rrest of us read the news and tsked tsked...or so my memory says about my grandparents.  Maybe last real widespread struggle of any real length was WWII. 
 

Maybe we are becoming like the rest of the world, our wealth and resources no longer able to protect us from the ups and downs many others have always had to go through...

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bringing about 10/12 people together

For a family gathering that isn’t bad.   

Though I would aim for outside rather than at a restaurant. In the heat not really an option though.  Eating makes it difficult, I think skipping that probably would be wise but what would then fill the time?  Can’t play games if passing stuff around. Charades I guess (but I hate those). Watching family movies on a sheet hanging off the balcony outside after dark so not so hot?

Edited by Calm
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2 hours ago, Calm said:

It has only been 7 months...maybe that is long enough to realize changing people’s behaviour is like trying to herd cats, but it is nothing in comparison to many disasters including wars that last for years...and people adapted.

The US has gone through an unusually stable and prosperous past 50/60 years. And even back then, instability was not widespread or long lasting.  The usual people suffered and the rrest of us read the news and tsked tsked...or so my memory says about my grandparents.  Maybe last real widespread struggle of any real length was WWII. 
 

Maybe we are becoming like the rest of the world, our wealth and resources no longer able to protect us from the ups and downs many others have always had to go through...

For a family gathering that isn’t bad.   

Though I would aim for outside rather than at a restaurant. In the heat not really an option though.  Eating makes it difficult, I think skipping that probably would be wise but what would then fill the time?  Can’t play games if passing stuff around. Charades I guess (but I hate those). Watching family movies on a sheet hanging off the balcony outside after dark so not so hot?

There is the advantage of living in Arizona during 113 degree weather.  When we met my parents in Nephi in a park for takeout it was only about 80 degrees and we were thinking how nice to be able to eat outside! Lol

We also met my brother-in-law and father-in-law inside a restaurant in Utah because my brother-in-law thought it was too hot to eat outside. 

It has been the only time since March that we have ate in.  On all of our dates here in the heat we eat in the car.

Edited by Rain
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Now I am thinking about it WWII wasn’t much of a issue if how my grandparents talked about it is anything. Seems like the most notable thing about it was Grandma’s victory hat and my uncle looking so sharp in his navy whites. The depression otoh...that was my grandparents’ trauma.  That was something different, something they feared happening again even though they had conquered. 

Edited by Calm
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Why is my brain going to “someone notable and well loved needs to die of Covid”? Am I morbid or is it just a (semi?)realistic appraisal of how people behave?  

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1 hour ago, Calm said:

It has only been 7 months...maybe that is long enough to realize changing people’s behaviour is like trying to herd cats, but it is nothing in comparison to many disasters including wars that last for years...and people adapted.

The US has gone through an unusually stable and prosperous past 50/60 years. And even back then, instability was not widespread or long lasting.  The usual people suffered and the rrest of us read the news and tsked tsked...or so my memory says about my grandparents.  Maybe last real widespread struggle of any real length was WWII. 
 

Maybe we are becoming like the rest of the world, our wealth and resources no longer able to protect us from the ups and downs many others have always had to go through...

For a family gathering that isn’t bad.   

Though I would aim for outside rather than at a restaurant. In the heat not really an option though.  Eating makes it difficult, I think skipping that probably would be wise but what would then fill the time?  Can’t play games if passing stuff around. Charades I guess (but I hate those). Watching family movies on a sheet hanging off the balcony outside after dark so not so hot?

We really wanted to find a place like that, breakfast places don't commonly have them. 

Yes, our grandparents or great grandparents, might be our future youth. I hope we/they weather this without world war 3, a huge climate change, or another great depression. 

 

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https://reason.com/2020/09/16/how-much-difference-do-covid-19-lockdowns-make/?amp&__twitter_impression=true

“In the United States, meanwhile, lockdowns, despite the huge costs they entailed, have not had any obvious payoff in terms of fewer COVID-19 deaths, although they may have changed the timing of those deaths. Perhaps the outcome would have been different if lockdowns had been imposed earlier or if they had been lifted later and more cautiously.

But perhaps not. In a National Bureau of Economic Research paper published last month, UCLA economist Andrew Atkeson and two other researchers, after looking at COVID-19 trends in 23 countries and 25 U.S. states that had seen more than 1,000 deaths from the disease by late July, found little evidence that variations in policy explain the course of the epidemic in different places.

Atkeson and his co-authors conclude that the role of legal restrictions "is likely overstated," saying their findings "raise doubt about the importance" of lockdowns in controlling the epidemic. It would not be the first time that people have exaggerated the potency of government action while ignoring everything else.”

Edited by bsjkki
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1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

https://reason.com/2020/09/16/how-much-difference-do-covid-19-lockdowns-make/?amp&__twitter_impression=true

“In the United States, meanwhile, lockdowns, despite the huge costs they entailed, have not had any obvious payoff in terms of fewer COVID-19 deaths, although they may have changed the timing of those deaths. Perhaps the outcome would have been different if lockdowns had been imposed earlier or if they had been lifted later and more cautiously.

But perhaps not. In a National Bureau of Economic Research paper published last month, UCLA economist Andrew Atkeson and two other researchers, after looking at COVID-19 trends in 23 countries and 25 U.S. states that had seen more than 1,000 deaths from the disease by late July, found little evidence that variations in policy explain the course of the epidemic in different places.

Atkeson and his co-authors conclude that the role of legal restrictions "is likely overstated," saying their findings "raise doubt about the importance" of lockdowns in controlling the epidemic. It would not be the first time that people have exaggerated the potency of government action while ignoring everything else.”


Economists talking about what is and isn’t effective in managing Covid is like going to infectious disease experts for advice on what is and is not working for the economy.  

Clearly, they are biased and more concerned about the economy.  It is not peer reviewed, or even reviewed by the board of directors.  It is circulated for purposes of “discussion”.  It smells like a propaganda piece for banks, and sponsored by the largest one of all - the federal reserve (which is a private bank).

I agree with them on the “ignoring everything else” part.  But unfortunately it seems to be the people who are against the lockdowns are the very ones “ignoring everything else”.  Sheesh.

Edited by pogi
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I am not sure there is enough consistency between areas on type of lock downs and cooperation or lack there of to draw conclusions myself either way. Throw in protests, young and dumb type of parties, variations on contact tracing and enforcement...

And if the lockdowns didn’t work, is it that they weren’t actually effective or more that they were sabotaged by lack of cooperation?  Or something else?

Comparing Sweden to the US or other countries without taking into account population density, percentage of population that is older, health care quality, and probably many other influences on Covid numbers is problematic imo.  At least as described, I wasn’t impressed. 
 

added:  as far as I can tell, they are only using the daily count of deaths for each country or state. Given the wide variation in many countries and states, I wonder how this impacts it. It is an interesting result of it if found to be accurate...that death growth rates fell to zero 20-40 days or so after 25 deaths were recorded...rather weird it would be consistent across such varied demographics. 
 

I will be interested to see the study reviewed by the experts, especially if confirmed to explain why the disease behaves this way (apparently some others do as well).

Edited by Calm
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Interesting hearing today in the Senate. CDC's Redfield testifies masks are your best protection based on science and testifies he doesn't see a vaccine coming until into 2021. Also that the Nov. 1 deadline letter sent to states had no political considerations and was just to get the states distribution systems ready.

Interesting questions about 'aborted baby tissue' in vaccine production. Should have options for people. Moderna and Johnson and Johnson using aborted baby tissue in vaccines. Others using placenta and adult stem cells.

https://thehill.com/video/senate/516635-watch-live-cdc-director-testifies-to-congress-on-coronavirus

Edited by bsjkki
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Even after a vaccine is approved, it will take 6-9 months to get enough people vaccinated for it to help overall. Mitigation issues will need to continue. Approval for vaccine only requires a 50 percent efficacy rate but once it's approved...they want to distribute it within 24 hours so the distribution chains need to be set up. First responders will be first and then those who are most vulnerable.

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Redfield clarifies people had been exposed to covid positive people should quarantine for 2 weeks. A problem arose that people who had been exposed, would go get a test, it would be negative and they would not stay quarantined. Asymptomatic people who get tested after exposure would view it that they were clear even though they may have been tested before the viral load was developed in their system. Testing must be linked to an action (quarantine 2 weeks).

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24 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

Interesting hearing today in the Senate. CDC's Redfield testifies masks are your best protection based on science and testifies he doesn't see a vaccine coming until into 2021. Also that the Nov. 1 deadline letter sent to states had no political considerations and was just to get the states distribution systems ready.

Interesting questions about 'aborted baby tissue' in vaccine production. Should have options for people. Moderna and Johnson and Johnson using aborted baby tissue in vaccines. Others using placenta and adult stem cells.

Very interesting to say the least. Because for so long there were laws in place to block the fetuses being used, or at least I thought. For years I was hoping for their use from infants that died, but not by abortion, since it's basically the same thing as organs being donated after someone dies. It was my hope because it was said it may help an Alzheimer's patient, and my mom had the horrific disease.  

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4 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

Two million Binax (Abbott) not Binex...tests are being sent to nursing homes this week at  no cost. Point of care.

Awesome, hoping the spit test and results can be done in each of our homes one day too!!

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CDC does not have enough money to support the needs of the states for vaccine distribution. Six billion dollars needed to distribute the vaccine that they don't have. Congress needs to fund this.

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