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Covid II: Medical Info and Implications


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14 hours ago, pogi said:

A Utah study shows that mask mandates are effective at reducing cases AND boosting the economy.

https://www.ksl.com/article/50054593/saving-lives-and-saving-livelihoods-statewide-mask-mandates-help-boost-the-economy-new-utah-study-finds

That has more to do with economic activity than anything, it comes from the business school not doctors. It says almost nothing about mask effectiveness itself....only that it increases confidence in going to stores which doesn't exclude false confidence. They explained away data that shows dramatic rises in cases after mask mandates with a wave of the hand, then this unsupported convenient conclusion,

Quote

"What the research does is go to great lengths to understand not what happens to cases themselves, but … compare the cases to what would've happened if we had not put a mask mandate in place. What we see is a decline in the cases relative to what would've happened if we did not have these mask requirements in place." 

I strongly suspect that the truth is somewhere between both extremes in the mask debates. I think common sense dictates that masks are only as good as what they are made of, coverage, and how they are worn. None of that is emphasized, especially the importance of finding a mask that doesn't slide down. I see SO many masks sliding off noses. It may not be that far off to say masks don't work when it comes to how they are worn. 

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8 minutes ago, juliann said:

That has more to do with economic activity than anything, it comes from the business school not doctors. It says almost nothing about mask effectiveness itself....only that it increases confidence in going to stores which doesn't exclude false confidence. They explained away data that shows dramatic rises in cases after mask mandates with a wave of the hand, then this unsupported convenient conclusion,

I found the details in this study lacking. I don't  think increased shopping is necessarily what the states are going for when they institute a statewide mask mandate. I seem to remember experts cautioning against masks because it would give a false sense of security. Plus, the study ended in September before the fall spike in cases which probably blows their data about masks decreasing infections with statewide bans.

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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920304258?fbclid=IwAR2ThVW8heoWpjCJNALqNZOklRcDarS9csetteKE_jpT8U0l3-SH6IeJDHg

Early use on an outpatient basis helped keep people out of hospitals. Isn't that the goal? (Yes it "was a retrospective case series study in the general practice setting. A total of 141 COVID-19 patients with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the year 2020 were included.")

"One patient (0.7%) in the treatment group died versus 13 patients (3.4%) in the untreated group (OR = 0.2, 95% CI 0.03–1.5; P = 0.12). No cardiac side effects were observed. Risk stratification-based treatment of COVID-19 outpatients as early as possible after symptom onset using triple therapy, including the combination of zinc with low-dose hydroxychloroquine, was associated with significantly fewer hospitalisations.

Just like the flu, early treatments to keep people out of hospitals should be pursued vigorously. Especially, in high risk patients.

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1 hour ago, juliann said:

That has more to do with economic activity than anything, it comes from the business school not doctors. It says almost nothing about mask effectiveness itself....only that it increases confidence in going to stores which doesn't exclude false confidence. They explained away data that shows dramatic rises in cases after mask mandates with a wave of the hand, then this unsupported convenient conclusion,

I think it brings up a valid point however about the importance of controls in studies.  Any study suggesting that mask mandates don't work because positive cases actually rise after mask mandates are implemented are flawed due to a lack of controls.  Of course they are going to continue to rise when they are implemented (typically) during a surge.   It looks like the data they quote for their study is from the CDC:

 

image.png.e0921f18a7f86a84e5f8717a679f65cc.png

 

This is not the only study which shows that mask mandates work:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_and_public_wearing_of_masks_Update_June_15_2020

Here is an excellent review of all the evidence for masks in general:

https://files.fast.ai/papers/masks_lit_review.pdf

 

1 hour ago, juliann said:

I strongly suspect that the truth is somewhere between both extremes in the mask debates. I think common sense dictates that masks are only as good as what they are made of, coverage, and how they are worn. None of that is emphasized, especially the importance of finding a mask that doesn't slide down. I see SO many masks sliding off noses. It may not be that far off to say masks don't work when it comes to how they are worn. 

I don't think there is any major scientific or medical organization in the world who argues that mask mandates don't work.  I think it is hardly a debate.

I agree that masks only work when we wear them correctly.  This doesn't invalidate anything however.  We don't need 100% perfect compliance for mask mandates to work. 

 image.png.976bd3357119f47f1effbbc3d761c105.png

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

image.png.7f0ab7894f511965f43240a2abbe96fa.png

Recent studies

  • Mueller AV, Eden MJ, Oakes JM, et al. Quantitative Method for Comparative Assessment of Particle Removal Efficiency of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks for PPE (July 2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matt.2020.07.006external icon https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590238520303647external icon
  • Anindita M, Das K.COVID-19 Pandemic: Is Cloth Mask Really Protect Public From SARS-CoV-2? (The way of handling to get Results) (May 2020). https://www.ijisrt.com/assets/upload/files/IJISRT20MAY228.pdfpdf iconexternal icon
  • Lustig SR, Biswakarma JJH, Rana D, et al. Effectiveness of Common Fabrics to Block Aqueous Aerosols of Virus-like Nanoparticles (May 2020). https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acsnano.0c03972external icon
  • Sousa‐Pinto B, Fonte AP, Lopes AA, et al.Face masks for community use: An awareness call to the differences in materials (August 2020). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7361409/external icon
  • Chughtai AA, Seale H, Macintyre CR. Effectiveness of Cloth Masks for Protection Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (July 2020). https://europepmc.org/article/med/32639930external icon
  • Bagheri MH, Khalaj I, Azizi A, et al. Filtration Efficiency, Breathability, and Reusability of Improvised Materials for Face Masks (July 2020) PREPRINT. https://engrxiv.org/nrtgb/external icon
  • Gandhi M, Beyrer C, Goosby E. Masks Do More Than Protect Others During COVID-19:
  • Reducing the Inoculum of SARS-CoV-2 to Protect the Wearer. J Gen Intern Med. DOI: 10.1007/s11606-020-06067-8
  • Wang H, Wang Q, Lin YL, Kilinc-Balci FS, Price A, Chu L, Chu MC. Household materials selection for homemade cloth face coverings and their filtration efficiency enhancement with triboelectric charging. Nano Letters. 2020 Jun 2.”
  • Rothe C, Schunk M, Sothmann P, et al. Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany. The New England journal of medicine. 2020;382(10):970-971.
  • Zou L, Ruan F, Huang M, et al. SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients. The New England journal of medicine. 2020;382(12):1177-1179.
  • Pan X, Chen D, Xia Y, et al. Asymptomatic cases in a family cluster with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The Lancet Infectious diseases. 2020.
  • Bai Y, Yao L, Wei T, et al. Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19. Jama. 2020.
  • Kimball A HK, Arons M, et al. Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Residents of a Long-Term Care Skilled Nursing Facility — King County, Washington, March 2020. MMWR Morbidity and mortality weekly report. 2020; ePub: 27 March 2020.
  • Wei WE LZ, Chiew CJ, Yong SE, Toh MP, Lee VJ. Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 — Singapore, January 23–March 16, 2020. MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2020;ePub: 1 April 2020.
  • Li R, Pei S, Chen B, et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science (New York, NY). 2020.
  • Furukawa NW, Brooks JT, Sobel J. Evidence Supporting Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 While Presymptomatic or Asymptomatic [published online ahead of print, 2020 May 4]. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26(7):10.3201/eid2607.201595. Link
  • Oran DP, Topol Prevalence of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Narrative Review [published online ahead of print, 2020 Jun 3]. Ann Intern Med. 2020;M20-3012.
  • National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Rapid Expert Consultation on the Possibility of Bioaerosol Spread of SARS-CoV-2 for the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 1, 2020). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25769external icon
  • Schwartz KL, Murti M, Finkelstein M, et al. Lack of COVID-19 transmission on an international flight. CMAJ. 2020;192(15):E410.
  • Anfinrud P, Stadnytskyi V, Bax CE, Bax A. Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering. N Engl J Med. 2020 Apr 15. doi:10.1056/NEJMc2007800.
  • Davies A, Thompson KA, Giri K, Kafatos G, Walker J, Bennett ATesting the efficacy of homemade masks: would they protect in an influenza pandemic? Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2013;7(4):413-8.
  • Konda A, Prakash A, Moss GA, Schmoldt M, Grant GD, Guha S. Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks. ACS Nano. 2020 Apr 24.
  • Aydin O, Emon B, Saif MTA. Performance of fabrics for home-made masks against spread of respiratory infection through droplets: a quantitative mechanistic study. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.19.20071779, posted April 24, 2020.
  • Ma QX, Shan H, Zhang HL, Li GM, Yang RM, Chen JM. Potential utilities of mask-wearing and instant hand hygiene for fighting SARS-CoV-2. J Med Virol. 2020.
  • Leung, N.H.L., Chu, D.K.W., Shiu, E.Y.C. et al.Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks. Nat Med. 2020.
  • Johnson DF, Druce JD, Birch C, Grayson ML. A quantitative assessment of the efficacy of surgical and N95 masks to filter influenza virus in patients with acute influenza infection. Clin Infect Dis. 2009 Jul 15;49(2):275-7.
  • Green CF, Davidson CS, Panlilio AL, et al. Effectiveness of selected surgical masks in arresting vegetative cells and endospores when worn by simulated contagious patients. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2012;33(5):487‐494.
Edited by pogi
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Down here in Ensenada they are much more virus conscience. Any store you enter you will wear a mask, get your temperature taken , step on a special mat and wait in line until they let you in. They also supply hand sanitizer at the entry as well as having somebody wipe all of the cart handles before you use one. Everyone wears a mask here. They cannot afford to have the economy shut down again.

Edited by rodheadlee
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40 minutes ago, pogi said:

I think it brings up a valid point however about the importance of controls in studies.  Any study suggesting that mask mandates don't work because positive cases actually rise after mask mandates are implemented are flawed due to a lack of controls.  Of course they are going to continue to rise when they are implemented (typically) during a surge.   It looks like the data they quote for their study is from the CDC:

 

image.png.e0921f18a7f86a84e5f8717a679f65cc.png

 

This is not the only study which shows that mask mandates work:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342198360_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_and_public_wearing_of_masks_Update_June_15_2020

Here is an excellent review of all the evidence for masks in general:

https://files.fast.ai/papers/masks_lit_review.pdf

 

I don't think there is any major scientific or medical organization in the world who argues that mask mandates don't work.  I think it is hardly a debate.

I agree that masks only work when we wear them correctly.  This doesn't invalidate anything however.  We don't need 100% perfect compliance for mask mandates to work. 

 image.png.976bd3357119f47f1effbbc3d761c105.png

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

image.png.7f0ab7894f511965f43240a2abbe96fa.png

Recent studies

  • Mueller AV, Eden MJ, Oakes JM, et al. Quantitative Method for Comparative Assessment of Particle Removal Efficiency of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks for PPE (July 2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matt.2020.07.006external icon https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590238520303647external icon
  • Anindita M, Das K.COVID-19 Pandemic: Is Cloth Mask Really Protect Public From SARS-CoV-2? (The way of handling to get Results) (May 2020). https://www.ijisrt.com/assets/upload/files/IJISRT20MAY228.pdfpdf iconexternal icon
  • Lustig SR, Biswakarma JJH, Rana D, et al. Effectiveness of Common Fabrics to Block Aqueous Aerosols of Virus-like Nanoparticles (May 2020). https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acsnano.0c03972external icon
  • Sousa‐Pinto B, Fonte AP, Lopes AA, et al.Face masks for community use: An awareness call to the differences in materials (August 2020). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7361409/external icon
  • Chughtai AA, Seale H, Macintyre CR. Effectiveness of Cloth Masks for Protection Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (July 2020). https://europepmc.org/article/med/32639930external icon
  • Bagheri MH, Khalaj I, Azizi A, et al. Filtration Efficiency, Breathability, and Reusability of Improvised Materials for Face Masks (July 2020) PREPRINT. https://engrxiv.org/nrtgb/external icon
  • Gandhi M, Beyrer C, Goosby E. Masks Do More Than Protect Others During COVID-19:
  • Reducing the Inoculum of SARS-CoV-2 to Protect the Wearer. J Gen Intern Med. DOI: 10.1007/s11606-020-06067-8
  • Wang H, Wang Q, Lin YL, Kilinc-Balci FS, Price A, Chu L, Chu MC. Household materials selection for homemade cloth face coverings and their filtration efficiency enhancement with triboelectric charging. Nano Letters. 2020 Jun 2.”
  • Rothe C, Schunk M, Sothmann P, et al. Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany. The New England journal of medicine. 2020;382(10):970-971.
  • Zou L, Ruan F, Huang M, et al. SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients. The New England journal of medicine. 2020;382(12):1177-1179.
  • Pan X, Chen D, Xia Y, et al. Asymptomatic cases in a family cluster with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The Lancet Infectious diseases. 2020.
  • Bai Y, Yao L, Wei T, et al. Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19. Jama. 2020.
  • Kimball A HK, Arons M, et al. Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Residents of a Long-Term Care Skilled Nursing Facility — King County, Washington, March 2020. MMWR Morbidity and mortality weekly report. 2020; ePub: 27 March 2020.
  • Wei WE LZ, Chiew CJ, Yong SE, Toh MP, Lee VJ. Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 — Singapore, January 23–March 16, 2020. MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2020;ePub: 1 April 2020.
  • Li R, Pei S, Chen B, et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science (New York, NY). 2020.
  • Furukawa NW, Brooks JT, Sobel J. Evidence Supporting Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 While Presymptomatic or Asymptomatic [published online ahead of print, 2020 May 4]. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26(7):10.3201/eid2607.201595. Link
  • Oran DP, Topol Prevalence of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Narrative Review [published online ahead of print, 2020 Jun 3]. Ann Intern Med. 2020;M20-3012.
  • National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Rapid Expert Consultation on the Possibility of Bioaerosol Spread of SARS-CoV-2 for the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 1, 2020). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25769external icon
  • Schwartz KL, Murti M, Finkelstein M, et al. Lack of COVID-19 transmission on an international flight. CMAJ. 2020;192(15):E410.
  • Anfinrud P, Stadnytskyi V, Bax CE, Bax A. Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering. N Engl J Med. 2020 Apr 15. doi:10.1056/NEJMc2007800.
  • Davies A, Thompson KA, Giri K, Kafatos G, Walker J, Bennett ATesting the efficacy of homemade masks: would they protect in an influenza pandemic? Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2013;7(4):413-8.
  • Konda A, Prakash A, Moss GA, Schmoldt M, Grant GD, Guha S. Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks. ACS Nano. 2020 Apr 24.
  • Aydin O, Emon B, Saif MTA. Performance of fabrics for home-made masks against spread of respiratory infection through droplets: a quantitative mechanistic study. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.19.20071779, posted April 24, 2020.
  • Ma QX, Shan H, Zhang HL, Li GM, Yang RM, Chen JM. Potential utilities of mask-wearing and instant hand hygiene for fighting SARS-CoV-2. J Med Virol. 2020.
  • Leung, N.H.L., Chu, D.K.W., Shiu, E.Y.C. et al.Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks. Nat Med. 2020.
  • Johnson DF, Druce JD, Birch C, Grayson ML. A quantitative assessment of the efficacy of surgical and N95 masks to filter influenza virus in patients with acute influenza infection. Clin Infect Dis. 2009 Jul 15;49(2):275-7.
  • Green CF, Davidson CS, Panlilio AL, et al. Effectiveness of selected surgical masks in arresting vegetative cells and endospores when worn by simulated contagious patients. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2012;33(5):487‐494.

Great links! I feel in my gut, masks do work. 

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1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

I don't  think increased shopping is necessarily what the states are going for when they institute a statewide mask mandate.

Just an added perk.

1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

I seem to remember experts cautioning against masks because it would give a false sense of security.

I think you are recalling incorrectly.  No major organization ever cautioned against the use of masks because it would give them a false sense of security.  They did caution people to not let them become a false sense of security though.  

1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

Plus, the study ended in September before the fall spike in cases which probably blows their data about masks decreasing infections with statewide bans.

Why would a spike in cases decrease effectiveness of mask mandates?  This makes no sense.  Furthermore, this is not the only study.

Edited by pogi
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14 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Great links! I feel in my gut, masks do work. 

Good.  There is more than enough data and scientific consensus for your head to believe (not just your gut) that masks work.  People only want you to believe there is an actual debate happening between the major scientific and medical institutions and organizations...there isn't. 

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I am recovering from Covid-19. I had a lot of muscle aches, lost my sense of smell (which is now returning), had chills, minimal fever, and generally felt weak and miserable for about 7 days. My wife, brother (he visits regularly), daughter (& family), and son all tested positive within a few days of each other. One of us brought it home and it spread to everybody. This thing is aggressive.

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5 minutes ago, Thinking said:

I am recovering from Covid-19. I had a lot of muscle aches, lost my sense of smell (which is now returning), had chills, minimal fever, and generally felt weak and miserable for about 7 days. My wife, brother (he visits regularly), daughter (& family), and son all tested positive within a few days of each other. One of us brought it home and it spread to everybody. This thing is aggressive.

I hope you all recover quickly.

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27 minutes ago, Thinking said:

I am recovering from Covid-19. I had a lot of muscle aches, lost my sense of smell (which is now returning), had chills, minimal fever, and generally felt weak and miserable for about 7 days. My wife, brother (he visits regularly), daughter (& family), and son all tested positive within a few days of each other. 

It sounds like you are all relatively ok.  I am glad to hear that!

27 minutes ago, Thinking said:

One of us brought it home and it spread to everybody. This thing is aggressive.

Yep.  Thanksgiving is going to be explosive - with an already stressed system. 

Edited by pogi
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1 hour ago, Thinking said:

I am recovering from Covid-19. I had a lot of muscle aches, lost my sense of smell (which is now returning), had chills, minimal fever, and generally felt weak and miserable for about 7 days. My wife, brother (he visits regularly), daughter (& family), and son all tested positive within a few days of each other. One of us brought it home and it spread to everybody. This thing is aggressive.

Glad that you are o.k.!

I have a question about the bolded part that maybe Pogi can answer.  We have two families in my ward (on my block) who both had a child test positive for Covid.  Neither family isn't all that concerned about masks or anything so once the diagnosis was known they quarantined to their houses but didn't wear masks around their kids (both are early teens) or keep them separated from the house hold other than having them stay in their room when it was convenient for them to do so.  No one else in either family got sick and everyone rode out their quarantine time and is back in society.  

Why does covid spread so easily in some situations and not really at all in others?

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10 minutes ago, bluebell said:

Glad that you are o.k.!

I have a question about the bolded part that maybe Pogi can answer.  We have two families in my ward (on my block) who both had a child test positive for Covid.  Neither family isn't all that concerned about masks or anything so once the diagnosis was known they quarantined to their houses but didn't wear masks around their kids (both are early teens) or keep them separated from the house hold other than having them stay in their room when it was convenient for them to do so.  No one else in either family got sick and everyone rode out their quarantine time and is back in society.  

Why does covid spread so easily in some situations and not really at all in others?

Immune systems matter!

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29 minutes ago, bluebell said:

Glad that you are o.k.!

I have a question about the bolded part that maybe Pogi can answer.  We have two families in my ward (on my block) who both had a child test positive for Covid.  Neither family isn't all that concerned about masks or anything so once the diagnosis was known they quarantined to their houses but didn't wear masks around their kids (both are early teens) or keep them separated from the house hold other than having them stay in their room when it was convenient for them to do so.  No one else in either family got sick and everyone rode out their quarantine time and is back in society.  

Why does covid spread so easily in some situations and not really at all in others?

Different strains I am guessing.  And immune systems as bsjkki says. 
 

Hmmm...maybe not strains as we seem to be mostly one kind on the US

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

 

Edited by Calm
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40 minutes ago, bluebell said:

Why does covid spread so easily in some situations and not really at all in others?

It would be interesting for those who didn't get sick to take the antibody test to see if they developed antibodies. If they did, it would mean that their immune systems beat the virus without developing symptoms. I am almost symptom free now, so my immune system won, but it was a battle. There are a lot of people who have been exposed but never developed symptoms.

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29 minutes ago, Thinking said:

It would be interesting for those who didn't get sick to take the antibody test to see if they developed antibodies. If they did, it would mean that their immune systems beat the virus without developing symptoms. I am almost symptom free now, so my immune system won, but it was a battle. There are a lot of people who have been exposed but never developed symptoms.

The ones that shock me are the three times Covid has shown up at my mom’s former assisted living place with residents and staff being asymptomatic.  Half of these people are not in good health and in fact it was first discovered because the resident was in the hospital for something else.  

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5 hours ago, pogi said:

 

I think you are recalling incorrectly.  No major organization ever cautioned against the use of masks because it would give them a false sense of security.  They did caution people to not let them become a false sense of security though.  

 

The initial advice coming from all major organizations was that masks "didn't work" and shouldn't be worn.  I remember it well because I was arguing against it. Since that defied all common sense, they came up with justifications, one of which was having a false sense of security. Also that they made things worse because it would make you touch your face more. (That I thought was one of the craziest ones, assuming your mask wasn't sliding all over. It does the opposite, it makes you much more aware to not touch your face.) Later, they admitted that they only said that so there wouldn't be a run on masks needed by health workers. In other words, they out and out lied. They did a repeat last week when they suddenly decided masks do protect the wearer along with others after telling us all along it was only to protect others. Again, common sense. If a mask filters, it filters no matter who is wearing it. So why the dissembling? 

Quote

Why would a spike in cases decrease effectiveness of mask mandates?  This makes no sense.  Furthermore, this is not the only study.

Not mask mandates. Masks. Not all mask mandates happened this week. There are those that have been in place long enough that dramatic and continuing rises in cases should certainly raise questions about the effectiveness of masks. If there was any study that gave irrefutable evidence the random cloth masks we all use "work", i.e., protect from infection, it would be cited in every news media 24/7. It doesn't exist. It only takes a few paragraph before what is available descends into weasle words or computer models or without control groups, etc. etc. How would you even go about proving that unregulated masks, inconsistently worn,  work anyway?  

And by golly, I wear masks. With filters. With everyone but family even inside my home. But only because it is common sense and it's all we have. 

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1 hour ago, Calm said:

Different strains I am guessing.  And immune systems as bsjkki says. 
 

Hmmm...maybe not strains as we seem to be mostly one kind on the US

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

 

 

1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

Immune systems matter!

I make Kefir now, and I am hoping it's helping my immune system. I am the last person to do this really. But I've seen how much it's helped so far, and when I read the benefits it makes me keep up the routine each week. And the taste isn't so bad. 

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16 hours ago, juliann said:

The initial advice coming from all major organizations was that masks "didn't work" and shouldn't be worn. 

I am happy to hear that you wear masks, but I do think the record needs to be set straight here.  I think one individual's contradictory, misguided, and fairly quickly recanted tweet is being projected onto "all major organizations".  I challenge anyone to find a single quote from any major health organization who claimed that "masks don't work" to reduce transmission.   It doesn't exist.   The only person who said that is the Surgeon General (he still recommended them for people who are sick and for medical workers though - acknowledging that they do actually reduce transmission).  However, it was clear even from his contradictory tweet that he believed they did work as he suggested that they are needed for front line workers.  He corrected himself and aligned with the CDC.   There simply is no debate if they work to reduce transmission, and never has been, among major organizations as every single one of them has consistently recommended them for sick people and for people caring form the sick.  Their recommendations for the general public evolved from there, but there was always the foundation that they work.  

No major organization has ever said that masks are not effective at reducing transmission of the virus.  Period.  We need to lay that to rest once and for all.

Since our memories seem to be vastly different, I did some searching to find the earliest press release about masks from the CDC that I could find.  It is dated Feb 12, 2020.  At the time there were only 13 known cases of Covid in the US (what a difference 9 months makes!):

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CDC talks regularly with health care industry partners as well as PPE manufacturers and distributors to assess availability of PPE.  At this time, some partners are reporting higher than usual demand for select N95 respirators and face masks.  CDC does not currently recommend the use of face masks for the general public.  This virus is not spreading in the community.  If you are sick or a patient under investigation and not hospitalized, CDC recommends wearing a face mask when around other people and before entering a health care provider’s office, but when you are alone, in your home, you do not need to wear a mask.  People who are in close contact with someone with novel coronavirus, for example, household contacts and care givers of people with known or suspected 2019, I’m sorry, nCoV 2019, we should wear a face mask if they are in the same room as the patient... 

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0212-cdc-telebriefing-transcript.html

Clearly, from the get go, the CDC knew and educated that masks work.  As their understanding of asymptomatic transmission grew and as risk in communities grew, and as PPE became more available, those recommendations changed.  I agree that they could have done a much better job at messaging, but they never said they "don't work" to reduce transmission.

As you can see, they stated that "currently" masks are not recommended for the general public.  That is very different from saying that masks are not recommended for the general public because "they don't work".  There were only 13 known cases and people were already hording them putting front line workers at risk!  

The CDC did have some initial concerns about people potentially touching their faces more and potentially giving them a false sense of security, which is partly why they initially only recommended them for sick people.    

16 hours ago, juliann said:

They did a repeat last week when they suddenly decided masks do protect the wearer along with others after telling us all along it was only to protect others. Again, common sense. If a mask filters, it filters no matter who is wearing it. So why the dissembling? 

You can see from the transcript above that they believed that they protect the wearer from day 1, when worn properly.  That is why it has long been called PPE (personal protective equipment).  They knew very well that N95's were effective for the wearer, cloth masks etc, they were less sure about.  

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"I think there's always been some appreciation that there was personal protection from the mask itself, but there was no way to quantify that," said Carle Illinois School of Medicine associate professor William Scott. "There was no real research to know for sure if that was truly happening."

As studies began pilling up, their reasons for the recommendations evolved, but the recommendation to wear masks has been in place for around 8 months now.  The reasons and justification for wearing a mask have increased with time and evidence, but the recommendations have been there from the beginning of the spread into the larger community.  There is NO debate if they work to reduce transmission.  There is no debate about mask mandates working.  There was no "lying" by any major organization - just one individual who quickly corrected himself. 

16 hours ago, juliann said:

Not mask mandates. Masks. Not all mask mandates happened this week. There are those that have been in place long enough that dramatic and continuing rises in cases should certainly raise questions about the effectiveness of masks.

It is not raising questions for ANY major public health organizations.  Zero.  It is only raising questions within the lay public and political activists trying to preserve their liberty. 

I have provided 3 link to legitimate studies which show that they work at reducing - not illuminating - transmission.   There are several more apparently:

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Seven studies have confirmed the benefit of universal masking in community level analyses: in a unified hospital system,38 a  German city,39 a U.S. state,40 a panel of 15 U.S. states and Washington, D.C.,41,42 as well as both Canada43 and the U.S.44 nationally. Each analysis demonstrated that, following directives from organizational and political leadership for universal masking, new infections fell significantly. Two of these studies42,44 and an additional analysis of data from 200 countries that included the U.S.45 also demonstrated reductions in mortality. An economic analysis using U.S. data found that, given these effects, increasing universal masking by 15% could prevent the need for lockdowns and reduce associated losses of up to $1 trillion or about 5% of gross domestic product.42

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

 

16 hours ago, juliann said:

If there was any study that gave irrefutable evidence the random cloth masks we all use "work", i.e., protect from infection, it would be cited in every news media 24/7. It doesn't exist. It only takes a few paragraph before what is available descends into weasle words or computer models or without control groups, etc. etc. How would you even go about proving that unregulated masks, inconsistently worn,  work anyway?  

I provided a list of a few dozen studies demonstrating the effectiveness of cloth masks.  The evidence is overwhelming and fairly conclusive.  Of course no study can test every single cloth mask out there, but out of the dozens and dozens of studies performed on a gigantic selection of different types of fabrics and mask designs, they found that in general, they are effective at reducing transmission by varied degrees.   
 

image.png.e7978636ea0b77fcef1bc9dadea4e8eb.png

 

This is all history anyway.  What matters is what is the most current and best evidence practice today.  All major health organizations are perfectly aligned now.  There should be no question as to the strength and validity of the evidence.  It is overwhelming.   

Edited by pogi
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39 minutes ago, pogi said:

I am happy to hear that you wear masks, but I do think the record needs to be set straight here.  I think one individual's contradictory, misguided, and fairly quickly recanted tweet is being projected onto "all major organizations".  I challenge anyone to find a single quote from any major health organization who claimed that "masks don't work" to reduce transmission.   It doesn't exist.   The only person who said that is the Surgeon General.  However, it was clear even from his contradictory tweet that he believed they did work as he suggested that they are needed for front line workers.  He fairly quickly corrected himself and aligned with the CDC.  There simply is no debate if they work to reduce transmission, and never has been, among major organizations.  

No major organization has ever said that masks are not effective at reducing transmission of the virus.  Period.  We need to lay that to rest once and for all.

Since our memories seem to be vastly different, I did some searching to find the earliest press release about masks from the CDC that I could find.  It is dated Feb 12, 2020.  At the time there were only 13 known cases of Covid in the US:

Clearly, from the get go, the CDC knew and educated that masks work.  As their understanding of asymptomatic transmission grew and as risk in communities grew, and as PPE became more available, those recommendations changed.  I agree that they could have done a much better job at messaging, but they never said they "don't work" to reduce transmission.

As you can see, they stated that "currently" masks are not recommended for the general public.  That is very different from saying that masks are not recommended for the general public because "they don't work".  There were only 13 known cases and people were already hording them putting front line workers at risk!  

 

 

You are arguing over semantics.  The point is, we were told to not wear masks. You only have to google to find that history so I don't understand why you are attempting to rewrite this. (This article also cites studies supporting the efficacy of mask wearing. )

 https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

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Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization now recommend cloth masks for the general public, but earlier in the pandemic, both organizations recommended just the opposite. These shifting guidelines may have sowed confusion among the public about the utility of masks.

 

https://www.wired.com/story/how-masks-went-from-dont-wear-to-must-have/

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“The word that we got was that we were struggling to make sure we get personal protective equipment, including masks, for the health care workers, so the initial recommendation was: Don’t put masks on, because we’re going to be taking them away from health care workers,” says Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “That understandably got interpreted as, we didn’t think masks were of any benefit.”

You can play with "that got interpreted as...." as not being official, I suppose, but there was no statement from these very official organizations saying they were of benefit which would have been the obvious response if their recommendations were being widely misinterpreted. They let it stand because to do otherwise would have created a run on the masks needed for health workers, as I previously said. 

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More quietly, public health experts worried that if people started wearing masks, they’d overestimate their level of protection and get careless. The science was blurry, but the message had to be clear: No masks for civilians.

In other words, masks "wouldn't work." As I said before, once the no mask edict went out, there had to be reasons why. And several were allowed to circulate, such as this one. 

I don't understand the reluctance in admitting all this. It has nothing to do with the effectiveness of masks. It has to do with the lack of trust in the organizations that make the rules that are supposed to be based only on science. I won't defend anti-maskers. But I'm willing to acknowledge they do have cause for skepticism based on what these organizations have done. 

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1 hour ago, juliann said:

You are arguing over semantics.  The point is, we were told to not wear masks. You only have to google to find that history so I don't understand why you are attempting to rewrite this. (This article also cites studies supporting the efficacy of mask wearing. )

That is not just semantical differences.  You accused "all major organizations" of lying.  That is a hefty and dangerous accusation to make.   Frankly, it simply isn't true and undercuts public trust in these organizations when it is needed most.  Not recommending masks for the general community when community spread was exceptionally low, and masks were needed for front-line workers is not the same as lying about their efficacy in reducing transmission.  The fact is they ALWAYS recommended masks for symptomatic people and for people who cared for them.   In other words - they work!

1 hour ago, juliann said:

but there was no statement from these very official organizations saying they were of benefit...

That is not accurate.  The earliest one I could find from Feb 12 was explicit that they are effective at reducing transmission and recommended for certain groups (and always have been), but not "currently" recommended for the general public for very legitimate reasons.

1 hour ago, juliann said:

As I said before, once the no mask edict went out, there had to be reasons why. And several were allowed to circulate, such as this one. 

The 2 primary reasons have always been crystal clear:  1) we needed to preserve them for front line workers when people were hording them. 2) there was no major community spread when they recommended against them for the public.  There were only 13 cases (all from China) when they first recommended against them for the public.  That is a far cry from lying about their efficacy at reducing transmission. 

There was some legitimate worry that they would give the public a false sense of security or that they might touch their face more.  Without any evidence, those are legitimate concerns.  That is all besides the point of the consistent and unchanging message that masks are effective at reducing transmission when worn correctly.  Evidence eventually showed that people actually touched their face less with masks and that mandates work.  End of story.  No lying at all.

1 hour ago, juliann said:

I don't understand the reluctance in admitting all this. It has nothing to do with the effectiveness of masks. It has to do with the lack of trust in the organizations that make the rules that are supposed to be based only on science. I won't defend anti-maskers. But I'm willing to acknowledge they do have cause for skepticism based on what these organizations have done. 

The problem is that there are WAY TOO MANY people who still question the efficacy of masks because they don't trust these organizations when they are accused of lying to the public.  It is dangerous to public health.  It needs to stop once and for all.  We need to trust these organizations.  Their primary concern is to protect public health through evidence based practices.  Sometimes that process is slower than we like, but it works better than anything else.    We can trust them more than politicians and anti-maskers who intentionally twist their words and try to damage trust.

Edited by pogi
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24 minutes ago, pogi said:

That is not just semantical differences.  You accused "all major organizations" of lying.  That is a hefty and dangerous accusation to make.   Frankly, it simply isn't true and undercuts public trust in these organizations when it is needed most.  Not recommending masks for the general community when community spread was exceptionally low, and masks were needed for front-line workers is not the same as lying about their efficacy in reducing transmission.  The fact is they ALWAYS recommended masks for symptomatic people and for people who cared for them.   In other words - they work!

That is not accurate.  The earliest one I could find from Feb 12 was explicit that they are effective at reducing transmission and recommended for certain groups (and always have been), but not "currently" recommended for the general public for very legitimate reasons.

The 2 primary reasons have always been crystal clear:  1) we needed to preserve them for front line workers when people were hording them. 2) there was no major community spread when they recommended against them for the public.  There were only 13 cases (all from China) when they first recommended against them for the public.  That is a far cry from lying about their efficacy at reducing transmission. 

There was some legitimate worry that they would give the public a false sense of security or that they might touch their face more.  Without any evidence, those are legitimate concerns.  That is all besides the point of the consistent and unchanging message that masks are effective at reducing transmission when worn correctly.  Evidence eventually showed that people actually touched their face less with masks and that mandates work.  End of story.  No lying at all.

The problem is that there are WAY TOO MANY people who still question the efficacy of masks because they don't trust these organizations when they are accused of lying to the public.  It is dangerous to public health.  It needs to stop once and for all.  We need to trust these organizations.  Their primary concern is to protect public health through evidence based practices.  Sometimes that process is slower than we like, but it works better than anything else.    We can trust them more than politicians and anti-maskers who intentionally twist their words and try to damage trust.

Why do you think the Boston Globe felt it necessary to correct what the public was hearing back in March?

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/19/opinion/guidance-against-wearing-masks-coronavirus-is-wrong-you-should-cover-your-face/

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Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, public health authorities have advised us that masks are not necessary and should not be used by the general public for protection against the rapidly spreading virus.

How do you think you build trust by denying history? They did lie, they did it believing it was for the public good, not for gain. But lie they did. I believe the only way to rebuild trust is to first admit the mistake. There is no magic in the air to make skeptical people stop remembering what they were told mere months ago. Shaming them or telling them to not believe their lying eyes does nothing. And, as I said, the latest flip flop doesn't help. 

 

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14 minutes ago, juliann said:

They did lie

CFR that the CDC ever "lied" about the efficacy of masks at reducing transmission. 

Edited by pogi
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51 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

They just told us not to wear them...and we didn’t need them unless we were sick. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/22/mask-wearing_guidance_a_timeline_of_slow-to-shift_messaging_143264.html

That was the recommendation at the time (for very good reason), correct.  

Where is the lie?  Where did they say they "don't work" to reduce transmission?

Edited by pogi
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