Covid II: Medical Info and Implications

[provoman]

On 9/23/2020 at 8:07 PM, Calm said:

The lack of confidence leading to only about 1/3 of Americans being willing to take the vaccine needed to be addressed. Reassuring no shortcuts in quality or safety to increase people taking it, especially those in high risk situations, would be taken makes medical and sociological sense. 

I was banned from a sub reddit for expressing concern about any impending vaccine that was expected at the end of October/November.  The particular sub is very much a pro-mask sub, so I chuckled a few weeks later when a high profile pro-mask political candidate in the US also expressed concern about any impending vaccine. 

On a different note, I found a website that discussed how long it took for various vaccines to available for public uses. IIRC the average for a vaccine development is about 10 years, so it is curious about that any sars-covid2 can be developed in months

Edited September 27, 2020 by provoman

[Calm]

1 hour ago, provoman said:

IIRC the average for a vaccine development is about 10 years, so it is curious about that any sars-covid2 can be developed in months

They have developed recently a much quicker way of developing a vaccine. There was a Meridian magazine article that explained the process nicely by one of the leads on Pfizer’s vaccine, but it got pulled for some reason.  (Possibly didn’t want a connection with the church or the church looking like it was promoting it.). Still the idea was earliest a year at best and more likely 18 months iirc when they first talked about it. Streamlining some processes like getting distribution ready before it’s available likely cuts off some time. Hopefully other stuff being done isn’t compromising the product. 

[carbon dioxide]

On 9/23/2020 at 8:00 PM, rodheadlee said:

So the vaccine is going to be held up by the FDA. Is this legitimate or a political move? Russia has a vaccine China probably has a vaccine but we don't have a vaccine.

China and Russia can get their vaccine trials done earlier as they have plenty of people they can test on whether it be voluntary or by force.  China could kill a thousand people with this vaccine and nobody would know.

[bsjkki]

How to administer the Abbott test. 

 

[The Nehor]

On 9/26/2020 at 8:39 PM, Calm said:

They have developed recently a much quicker way of developing a vaccine. There was a Meridian magazine article that explained the process nicely by one of the leads on Pfizer’s vaccine, but it got pulled for some reason.  (Possibly didn’t want a connection with the church or the church looking like it was promoting it.). Still the idea was earliest a year at best and more likely 18 months iirc when they first talked about it. Streamlining some processes like getting distribution ready before it’s available likely cuts off some time. Hopefully other stuff being done isn’t compromising the product. 

The development is definitely quicker than it used to be. The problem with a quick vaccine deployment is there is less allowance for testing medium and long term effects of the vaccine and there is no way to hurry that. Ideally you do not want to release a vaccine until people have had it in them for at least a year and preferably several years. This will almost certainly not prevent vaccine deployment but it is a legitimate (though minor) concern. I do not believe it alone justifies not taking the vaccine if it is released. I am still concerned about a rushed vaccine deployment in the US. There has been a lot of political shuffling of leadership in the agencies responsible for overseeing and approving vaccines in the last few weeks and this is setting off alarm bells for me.

Russia is still pushing ahead with its vaccine. There are serious concerns about it in the medical field. It is supposed to be deployed to everyone in October but many suspect it will be pushed back.

[Calm]

From my med app, you can go to website Everyday Health:

Quote

More than one million have died worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic's toll reached a grim milestone on Monday, as the number of deaths worldwide surpassed one million. According to Reuters, more than 5,400 people are dying around the world every 24 hours, which equates to one person every 16 seconds.

Most who get the virus develop symptoms. A meta-analysis published September 22 in PLOS Medicine concluded that the majority of those who contract COVID-19 will have symptoms. Scientists, led by researchers at the University of Bern in Switzerland, reviewed 79 studies regarding asymptomatic spread. Of the 6,616 individuals represented in the investigations, 4 out of 5 eventually had symptoms. Only 20 percent remained asymptomatic during follow-up.

 

[Calm]

Quote

The study noted that many infected individuals who show no symptoms may actually be pre-symptomatic and “wrongly classified” as asymptomatic. These individuals go on to develop symptoms later on.

Weekly cases have jumped by 10 percent in 21 states. CNN analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center on Sunday showed that the number of new coronavirus cases has risen by at least 10 percent or more compared with the week before in 21 states, as total infections in the United States topped seven million. Cases are rising in Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington state, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Modeling from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projects a huge surge coming in October and extending into November and December.

 

[Calm]

Quote

Less than 10 percent of Americans have antibodies. A study published September 25 in the Lancet found that under 10 percent of American have COVID-19 antibodies. Scientist based their results on blood samples from 28,500 patients receiving dialysis at about 1,300 facilities in 46 states in July. Authors concluded that “herd immunity remains out of reach, as has been the conclusion from large international surveys from the U.K. and Spain, where intense outbreaks of COVID-19 occurred during the spring and summer of 2020.”

I see a major problem with their sample. Dialysis patients are likely high risk and therefore would be likely isolating themselves as much as possible. Chances are the percent of those who have antibodies is therefore higher.  Doesn’t mean we are close to herd immunity though. 

Edited September 29, 2020 by Calm

[bluebell]

4 hours ago, Calm said:

I see a major problem with their sample. Dialysis patients are likely high risk and therefore would be likely isolating themselves as much as possible. Chances are the percent of those who have antibodies is therefore higher.  Doesn’t mean we are close to herd immunity though. 

I agree. It’s weird they didn’t consider that.

[Rain]

Definitely agree.  Many on dialysis are also diabetic so that would be further reasoning for isolation.  My aunt is one who is diabetic on dialiysis and it definitely applies to her - even before she fell and broke bones and was in the hospital.

 

[The Nehor]

12 hours ago, Calm said:

I see a major problem with their sample. Dialysis patients are likely high risk and therefore would be likely isolating themselves as much as possible. Chances are the percent of those who have antibodies is therefore higher.  Doesn’t mean we are close to herd immunity though. 

I agree to a degree but dialysis patients are also more likely to spend time in a hospital where potential exposure is increased. I am not sure how the factors balance out.

[The Nehor]

If you want some depressing news South Korea did a study of recovered Covid patients. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-southkorea-study/nine-in-ten-recovered-covid-19-patients-experience-side-effects-study-idUSKBN26K1GC

Over 90% of those who recovered report lingering effects. I can see some potential problems with the study just from the article but even if there is some skew in the numbers over 90% is still a staggering number. Korea is one of the nations at the forefront of studying the longer term impact of the disease. China should have more data but China’s data is more suspect. I am hoping more studies are being done into the cardiovascular damage reportedly tied to the disease and what the prevalence is. The numbers were very high on some early studies but the sample size was low.

[bsjkki]

Good news. Covid transmission through surfaces is low.

"Our findings suggest that environmental contamination leading to SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to occur in real-life conditions, provided that standard cleaning procedures and precautions are enforced. These data would support Goldman's point that the chance of transmission through inanimate surfaces is less frequent than hitherto recognised."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30678-2/fulltext

[smac97]

Apparently Florida is emerging from lockdown measures:

https://thefederalist.com/2020/09/29/citing-new-scientific-evidence-florida-gov-ron-desantis-ends-his-states-lockdown/

We'll see what happens.

-Smac

[The Nehor]

7 hours ago, The Nehor said:

If you want some depressing news South Korea did a study of recovered Covid patients. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-southkorea-study/nine-in-ten-recovered-covid-19-patients-experience-side-effects-study-idUSKBN26K1GC

Over 90% of those who recovered report lingering effects. I can see some potential problems with the study just from the article but even if there is some skew in the numbers over 90% is still a staggering number. Korea is one of the nations at the forefront of studying the longer term impact of the disease. China should have more data but China’s data is more suspect. I am hoping more studies are being done into the cardiovascular damage reportedly tied to the disease and what the prevalence is. The numbers were very high on some early studies but the sample size was low.

I was sure I had put one clarifying detail in but I had not. The 90% study only included hospitalized people. The data from those who have these after effects is limited in non-serious cases. The few studies I have read showed a high percentage (50-60%) but not 90% and many of those studies have a small sample size. More data is needed.

[Calm]

Mom's assisted living place may be going into total lockdown again.  One staff member tested positive after working the day before symptoms showed up.  Hopefully they were careful enough with the use of the PPE required, so as to not spread it to residents or other staff.

Unfortunately due to the surge in cases, we won't know for at least five days after testing.

Not too surprising, they were a BYU student.  Not saying they had been irresponsible themselves, it could easily have been a roommate or further removed.  People need to realize college students are involved in all areas of the economy, even if only being food service for employees or office or cleaning staff for companies.  High risk individuals may be able to isolate themselves, but there is a huge part of the senior community who are cared for by college age kids.  Even me, very easy to isolate if my husband wasn't a professor...I was using college kids to do the grunt work in housecleaning, the stuff that kills my back.  All summer my house has been going downhill (thankfully this fall seems like I am getting a seasonal boost and it was in such excellent condition before, I am actually getting it under control again this past week...)

Unfortunate if they do lock down now as this is the best time of year for being outside where visiting is currently allowed with masks.  Not sure how they are going to allow visits once it gets cold.

Edited September 30, 2020 by Calm

[Tacenda]

5 hours ago, Calm said:

Mom's assisted living place may be going into total lockdown again.  One staff member tested positive after working the day before symptoms showed up.  Hopefully they were careful enough with the use of the PPE required, so as to not spread it to residents or other staff.

Unfortunately due to the surge in cases, we won't know for at least five days after testing.

Not too surprising, they were a BYU student.  Not saying they had been irresponsible themselves, it could easily have been a roommate or further removed.  People need to realize college students are involved in all areas of the economy, even if only being food service for employees or office or cleaning staff for companies.  High risk individuals may be able to isolate themselves, but there is a huge part of the senior community who are cared for by college age kids.  Even me, very easy to isolate if my husband wasn't a professor...I was using college kids to do the grunt work in housecleaning, the stuff that kills my back.  All summer my house has been going downhill (thankfully this fall seems like I am getting a seasonal boost and it was in such excellent condition before, I am actually getting it under control again this past week...)

Unfortunate if they do lock down now as this is the best time of year for being outside where visiting is currently allowed with masks.  Not sure how they are going to allow visits once it gets cold.

I'm so sorry for your mom.  My MIL's place opened up more by allowing two guests in their apartments. And also she's able to go home with family as long as members are following PPE's. 

I sub'd on Monday in the 2nd grade and was so impressed with those kids! They all wore their masks, with the exception of a little girl that was a handful anyway. She continually refused to wear hers and a resource teacher had to take her out for not wearing it. But she has behaviour issues anyway. I loved her little spirit though, she loves bees, haha. She was a spit fire but would have tantrums. The rest of the class, amazing except for some mask malfunctions on one or two that weren't snug. Today I sub in 1st grade for a few hours later on, I wonder how they'll handle it, I'm assuming much better than the college students.

Edited September 30, 2020 by Tacenda

[bsjkki]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1311400442996363264?s=20

"The World Health Organization has long encouraged mass tourism and said closing borders wouldn’t stop the spread of Covid-19. A New York Times investigation found this policy was never based on science, but instead on politics and economics."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/world/europe/ski-party-pandemic-travel-coronavirus.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

"When the coronavirus emerged in China in January, the World Health Organization didn’t flinch in its advice: Do not restrict travel.

But what is now clear is that the policy was about politics and economics more than public health.

Public health records, scores of scientific studies and interviews with more than two dozen experts show the policy of unobstructed travel was never based on hard science. It was a political decision, recast as health advice, which emerged after a plague outbreak in India in the 1990s. By the time Covid-19 surfaced, it had become an article of faith.

“It’s part of the religion of global health: Travel and trade restrictions are bad,” said Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University who helped write the global rules known as the International Health Regulations. “I’m one of the congregants.”

Covid-19 has shattered that faith. Before the pandemic, a few studies had demonstrated that travel restrictions delayed, but did not stop, the spread of SARS, pandemic flu and Ebola. Most, however, were based on mathematical models. No one had collected real-world data. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the latest coronavirus is still not understood."

[Calm]

Because it is 2020....

Quote

Amoeba in Texas water supply has killed a boy. Texas, which has had one of the highest rates of coronavirus in the country, has a new health worry. Governor Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration in Brazoria County this week after the "brain-eating amoeba” Naegleria fowlerikilled a 6-year-old boy, and 3 of 11 tests identified the deadly microscopic parasite in the water supply. Local health officials said it may take up to 60 days to fully purge the water system in Lake Jackson, Texas, where residents have been urged to boil their tap water, according to the Associated Press. Six-year-old Josiah McIntyre died in September after exhibiting flu-like symptoms, which quickly worsened and led to difficulties for him communicating and standing.

 

[bsjkki]

New study and t-cells

”Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 peptides revealed pre-existing T cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals and validated similarity with common cold coronaviruses, providing a functional basis for heterologous immunity in SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

 “This T cell-mediated immune response is even more important as studies on humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-1 provided evidence that antibody responses are short-lived and can even cause or aggravate virus-associated lung pathology^16,17”

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-00808-x

^Nature.com

Edited October 1, 2020 by bsjkki

[Calm]

5 hours ago, bsjkki said:

New study and t-cells

”Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 peptides revealed pre-existing T cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals and validated similarity with common cold coronaviruses, providing a functional basis for heterologous immunity in SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

 “This T cell-mediated immune response is even more important as studies on humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-1 provided evidence that antibody responses are short-lived and can even cause or aggravate virus-associated lung pathology^16,17”

^Nature.com

Is there a simplified summary of implications for these findings...high levels of brain fog today. 

[bsjkki]

24 minutes ago, Calm said:

Is there a simplified summary of implications for these findings...high levels of brain fog today. 

@Calm I look to you to analyze this stuff for me. That's why I post what I read so it will be debated by those smarter than myself. I did try and find some analysis but the article came out yesterday. While it has been posted far and wide in scientific journals from many countries, analysis has been difficult to find. So, then I went to twitter and posted the title of the article to see what pops up. This is by far my favorite synopsis. It hearkens back to the study about people living with children being more immune.

 

If you would like to peruse this twitter topic. Here is a link:

https://twitter.com/search?q=SARS-CoV-2-derived peptides define heterologous and COVID-19-induced T cell recognition&src=typed_query

Edited October 1, 2020 by bsjkki

[Calm]

Thank you. Appreciate the vote of confidence in my ability to analyze. Normally that would drive me to greater effort to impress, but today the urge is to rollover and sleep.  

 

[The Nehor]

Israel has a really high opinion of its people’s math skills when they issued this directive for Covid control:

I wouldn’t trust such a directive to be understood universally here in the USA.

 

[Ahab]

5 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

Israel has a really high opinion of its people’s math skills when they issued this directive for Covid control:

I wouldn’t trust such a directive to be understood universally here in the USA.

 

Understanding is one thing.  Compliance is another.  I wouldn't even bother to look for a tape measure to measure meters.