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Covid Means Fewer Babies in 2021


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Interesting article on declining Birthday projected in 2021.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/07/us-coronavirus-deaths-births-population/614503/

 

One recent survey by the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive-health nonprofit, found that about a third of women in the United States ages 18 to 49 were planning to postpone pregnancy or forgo adding a child to their family because of the pandemic. The economists Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine have estimated that there could be 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births in 2021 than if there had not been a pandemic.

This could put 2021 babies in an unusual and arguably beneficial position. Being born into a small cohort has “consequences for how many classmates they have in school and how the labor market looks when they graduate from high school or college,” Vogl said. Perhaps getting into their college of choice, or securing the job they want, will be marginally easier.

Edited by bsjkki
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Yup. Last year i assumed i’d try getting pregnant this year again. With covid and our daughter’s concerns and other personal factors of not feeling fully ready for number 2 anyways, we decided to postpone till next year to try

 

with luv, 

BD

Edited by BlueDreams
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Perhaps for the best. Mom's long-term stress is less beneficial for baby during pregnancy. Also, the multiple concerns around work, childcare, and healthcare make childbirth and postpartum even more worrisome.

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8 hours ago, bsjkki said:

Interesting article on declining Birthday projected in 2021.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/07/us-coronavirus-deaths-births-population/614503/

One recent survey by the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive-health nonprofit, found that about a third of women in the United States ages 18 to 49 were planning to postpone pregnancy or forgo adding a child to their family because of the pandemic. The economists Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine have estimated that there could be 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births in 2021 than if there had not been a pandemic.

This could put 2021 babies in an unusual and arguably beneficial position. Being born into a small cohort has “consequences for how many classmates they have in school and how the labor market looks when they graduate from high school or college,” Vogl said. Perhaps getting into their college of choice, or securing the job they want, will be marginally easier.

And more readily implemented social distancing in schools, daycare, street corner hangouts, cellar pot circles and juvenile detention halls for future pandemics! Yay!

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Where I live it's quite the opposite, everybody's is pregnant it seems! I guess they didn't want to watch another episode of Star Trek, so why not👄

Edited by Duncan
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12 hours ago, Duncan said:

Where I live it's quite the opposite, everybody's is pregnant it seems! I guess they didn't want to watch another episode of Star Trek, so why not👄

This is what I heard people were expecting with everyone being at home so much.

Edited by Rain
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Those who plan pregnancies will have fewer. Those who do not plan them will have more.

So which is the bigger group?

Two of my siblings are expecting children right now. I say expecting instead of pregnant because one is a brother and one a sister and there is no good plural way of saying both. Can't say both are pregnant. Can't say their spouse is expecting because that is only the case in one. We need a new word. I am not too worried. One already homeschools and the other is a first child and her dad is still in school and working with no expected job loss.

 

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On 7/24/2020 at 11:42 PM, bsjkki said:

Interesting article on declining Birthday projected in 2021.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/07/us-coronavirus-deaths-births-population/614503/

 

One recent survey by the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive-health nonprofit, found that about a third of women in the United States ages 18 to 49 were planning to postpone pregnancy or forgo adding a child to their family because of the pandemic. The economists Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine have estimated that there could be 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births in 2021 than if there had not been a pandemic.

This could put 2021 babies in an unusual and arguably beneficial position. Being born into a small cohort has “consequences for how many classmates they have in school and how the labor market looks when they graduate from high school or college,” Vogl said. Perhaps getting into their college of choice, or securing the job they want, will be marginally easier.

What "labor market"?  We have no industrial base in this country.  Few of our colleges are going to survive.

Marriages and births were already at record lows in the USA (and the West generally).  This merely quickens the pace of anomie, and the coming deep Depression will merely accentuate it.  We are very likely to see a full decade of economic bad times like we have not seen in over a century.  That could easily lead to political instability and rioting which will become a nightmare.

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7 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

What "labor market"?  We have no industrial base in this country.  Few of our colleges are going to survive.

Marriages and births were already at record lows in the USA (and the West generally).  This merely quickens the pace of anomie, and the coming deep Depression will merely accentuate it.  We are very likely to see a full decade of economic bad times like we have not seen in over a century.  That could easily lead to political instability and rioting which will become a nightmare.

The continuing boomer retirements will help the labor market. Assuming we do not dump the elderly in ditches it will be a boost to support them. One way to make money right now if you have no soul is to get into cheap sleazy retirement homes and focus on grabbing people with no family or disinterested family and collect their social security checks.

Wages may go up unless immigration restrictions are loosened. That will only last for about a decade and a half though.

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5 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

The continuing boomer retirements will help the labor market. Assuming we do not dump the elderly in ditches it will be a boost to support them. One way to make money right now if you have no soul is to get into cheap sleazy retirement homes and focus on grabbing people with no family or disinterested family and collect their social security checks.

Wages may go up unless immigration restrictions are loosened. That will only last for about a decade and a half though.

In a very short time, our pension systems will fail, Social Security will have to be reduced, and the Boomers will have nothing.  The good times are over, Nehor.

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58 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

In a very short time, our pension systems will fail, Social Security will have to be reduced, and the Boomers will have nothing.  The good times are over, Nehor.

Hence the ditch option.

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On 7/25/2020 at 9:04 AM, Duncan said:

Where I live it's quite the opposite, everybody's is pregnant it seems! I guess they didn't want to watch another episode of Star Trek, so why not👄

Laughing out loud. :)

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My youngest son and his wife are expecting a baby girl, due in December.  They conceived her sometime in March, we figure.  And she'll likely have osteogenesis imperfecta, aka brittle bones,just like her Daddy.

They say whatever doesn't kill ye helps to make ye stronger.  We're looking forward to it.

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21 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

In a very short time, our pension systems will fail, Social Security will have to be reduced, and the Boomers will have nothing.  The good times are over, Nehor.

You don't seem to put much stock into the fact that our government can continue to print money, ad infinitum.  What is money for if not to be spent, I figure.

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On 7/25/2020 at 10:04 AM, Duncan said:

Where I live it's quite the opposite, everybody's is pregnant it seems! I guess they didn't want to watch another episode of Star Trek, so why not👄

It was a Wesley episode right?

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6 hours ago, Ahab said:

You don't seem to put much stock into the fact that our government can continue to print money, ad infinitum.  What is money for if not to be spent, I figure.

Traditional theory is that would spur inflation. Then again when it comes to macroeconomics the old statement that anyone who claims they understand it well enough to reliably predict cause and effect is either an idiot or a charlatan.

 

Edited by The Nehor
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4 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

It was a Wesley episode right?

ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm? Wesley? I don't follow Star Trek

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8 minutes ago, Duncan said:

ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm? Wesley? I don't follow Star Trek

Then you probably don't follow Star Trek, the Next Generation, either.  Wesley was the savant son of Dr. Crusher, the chief medical doctor.  Or at least he seemed to be a savant.  Maybe he was just a lucky guesser.

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13 minutes ago, Ahab said:

Then you probably don't follow Star Trek, the Next Generation, either.  Wesley was the savant son of Dr. Crusher, the chief medical doctor.  Or at least he seemed to be a savant.  Maybe he was just a lucky guesser.

okay!!!!

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2 hours ago, Ahab said:

You don't seem to put much stock into the fact that our government can continue to print money, ad infinitum.  What is money for if not to be spent, I figure.

Just like the USA, Spain was once the richest and most powerful country in the world.  Galleons returned regularly from New Spain with tons of gold, silver, and jewels.  They were so rich, they didn't need their industrial base any longer and became instead a consumer society.  They followed the Golden Rule:  He who has the gold rules.  They were so confident that they decided to conquer England.  Would have worked too, except that the Spanish Army and fleet (the Spanish Armada) got hit by a storm and sank.  After that it was all downhill for Spain.

The USA too has become a consumer society, with no industrial base, and we print money whenever we need it.  Pretending we are great just isn't the same as actually being great.

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10 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Just like the USA, Spain was once the richest and most powerful country in the world.  Galleons returned regularly from New Spain with tons of gold, silver, and jewels.  They were so rich, they didn't need their industrial base any longer and became instead a consumer society.  They followed the Golden Rule:  He who has the gold rules.  They were so confident that they decided to conquer England.  Would have worked too, except that the Spanish Army and fleet (the Spanish Armada) got hit by a storm and sank.  After that it was all downhill for Spain.

The USA too has become a consumer society, with no industrial base, and we print money whenever we need it.  Pretending we are great just isn't the same as actually being great.

In economics, it isn't so much what the government thinks of the value of its money, but rather what other people think of its value, so as long as everyone outside our government thinks our government's money has value, it will.

 

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3 hours ago, Ahab said:

In economics, it isn't so much what the government thinks of the value of its money, but rather what other people think of its value, so as long as everyone outside our government thinks our government's money has value, it will.

Not so sure that a pretend world (like the matrix simulation) can actually last indefinitely.  That's not how real economics works.

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9 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Not so sure that a pretend world (like the matrix simulation) can actually last indefinitely.  That's not how real economics works.

There really not much of anything to call real economics once you get into macroeconomics. Most of it is imaginary. The Reserve injects a billion dollars buying securities. The bank uses that to loan 10 billion dollars. Where did that money come from? Magic!

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7 hours ago, The Nehor said:

There really not much of anything to call real economics once you get into macroeconomics. Most of it is imaginary. The Reserve injects a billion dollars buying securities. The bank uses that to loan 10 billion dollars. Where did that money come from? Magic!

Sounds like Puff the Magic Dragon.

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