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Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate


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For what it's worth, the statistics for Washington State are as follows:

Total Cases - 37000

Total Deaths - 1370

Death Rate - 3.7%

However, when you dig deeper into these stats you can see a different story than what the media seem to be telling.

90% of deaths are those over 60.  That is approx. 1233.  Keep in mind that over 500 of these deaths occurred back in March in long term care facilities.  What is interesting is that  this demographic (Over 60) make up only 22% of all confirmed cases.

10% of deaths are those under 60 - approx. 137.  This demographic, however, makes up 78% of all cases.  So, for the under 60 crowd, the death rate is .0037 or less than four tenths of one percent.

Although we are seeing a spike in cases, so far the number of deaths seems to be holding steady or even declining.  If this continues to be the case, this should be looked at as good news.  It seems to me that the number of cases is not really that relevant.  What is more important is the number of deaths, which does not seem to be growing.  Hopefully, this will continue.

None of this means we can relax and go back to business as usual, but it does seem to show a different story than what the fear mongers want to tell..  Time will tell.

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44 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

For what it's worth, the statistics for Washington State are as follows:

Total Cases - 37000

Total Deaths - 1370

Death Rate - 3.7%

However, when you dig deeper into these stats you can see a different story than what the media seem to be telling.

90% of deaths are those over 60.  That is approx. 1233.  Keep in mind that over 500 of these deaths occurred back in March in long term care facilities.  What is interesting is that  this demographic (Over 60) make up only 22% of all confirmed cases.

10% of deaths are those under 60 - approx. 137.  This demographic, however, makes up 78% of all cases.  So, for the under 60 crowd, the death rate is .0037 or less than four tenths of one percent.

Although we are seeing a spike in cases, so far the number of deaths seems to be holding steady or even declining.  If this continues to be the case, this should be looked at as good news.  It seems to me that the number of cases is not really that relevant.  What is more important is the number of deaths, which does not seem to be growing.  Hopefully, this will continue.

None of this means we can relax and go back to business as usual, but it does seem to show a different story than what the fear mongers want to tell..  Time will tell.

Thanks for the information. Though I know there are plenty of news sources that often veer towards shock and awe....I do think we've developed a cultural narrative around the media that's a little unfair and promotes a strawman. I already knew the basic gist of the information you gave because I read and listen to the news regularly. Now if you were talking about social media, I'll give you that one. It really bothers me when people get most of their information from a meme. 

 

With luv,

BD

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29 minutes ago, pogi said:

I think the media has been very clear from the beginning that the older population is by far the most vulnerable.   

While this is true, recently, all you really hear anymore are scathing reports aimed at Florida and Texas based solely on the number of new cases.

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The other thing that people don't give enough consideration to is hospitalizations.  Many seem to only talk about death rates and positive cases.  Hospitals are being stressed to the max in several areas, which is a huge concern.  While younger people are not dying in large numbers, they are being hospitalized with severe morbidity in high numbers.  

While I agree that hospitalizations are important to watch, the areas where hospitals are being stressed, like Houston, for example, their ICU is only about 25% covid patients   They are stressed because they started allowing elective surgeries again and they have more non-covid patients taking up beds.  It is a number that needs to be watched but, at the same time,  you need to get the whole story.

Edited by T-Shirt
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1 minute ago, T-Shirt said:

all you really here anymore are scathing reports aimed at Florida and Texas based solely on the number of new cases.

Depends on where you get your news imo. 

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24 minutes ago, pogi said:

I think the media has been very clear from the beginning that the older population is by far the most vulnerable.  

The other thing that people don't give enough consideration to is hospitalizations.  Many seem to only talk about death rates and positive cases.  Hospitals are being stressed to the max in several areas, which is a huge concern.  While younger people are not dying in large numbers, they are being hospitalized with severe morbidity in high numbers.    

 

Do the reports on COVID Deaths distinguish between death of COVID and death with COVID?

 

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1 hour ago, T-Shirt said:

For what it's worth, the statistics for Washington State are as follows:

Total Cases - 37000

Total Deaths - 1370

Death Rate - 3.7%

However, when you dig deeper into these stats you can see a different story than what the media seem to be telling.

90% of deaths are those over 60.  That is approx. 1233.  Keep in mind that over 500 of these deaths occurred back in March in long term care facilities.  What is interesting is that  this demographic (Over 60) make up only 22% of all confirmed cases.

10% of deaths are those under 60 - approx. 137.  This demographic, however, makes up 78% of all cases.  So, for the under 60 crowd, the death rate is .0037 or less than four tenths of one percent.

Although we are seeing a spike in cases, so far the number of deaths seems to be holding steady or even declining.  If this continues to be the case, this should be looked at as good news.  It seems to me that the number of cases is not really that relevant.  What is more important is the number of deaths, which does not seem to be growing.  Hopefully, this will continue.

None of this means we can relax and go back to business as usual, but it does seem to show a different story than what the fear mongers want to tell..  Time will tell.

ok.But dang I am over that age 60 number just barely.I would like to be around for a bit longer.

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There is a really good article that discussed the discrepancy in deathrates to rising cases over all.

see here

The basic gist is that death rates usually start to really accrue 4-6 weeks after the infection rates rise. Like pogi, I'm concerned by both the increased hospitalization rates, which are starting to spike as well. That to me indicates that we'll likely see the death rate increase in the coming weeks. And though most of those sick currently are younger, it's a matter of time that this transmits to older and more vulnerable populations. 

I think it would be great if they'd collect and better transmit information about other concerns with covid that the public should be aware of. I have a lot of relative simply focused on the death rate and not noting that the disease can also cause long-term problems and has a higher than comfortable hospitalization rate that can go on for weeks and cost a fortune.....I think knowing that it could cause effects that may take weeks or months to recover from (or may never recover from in the case of heart and lung issues) may better help people understand the importance of social distancing and masks.  

 

With luv,

BD

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13 minutes ago, Teancum said:

ok.But dang I am over that age 60 number just barely.I would like to be around for a bit longer.

So am I.  I am very careful in everything I do.  Protecting the vulnerable is critical.  We are going to have to see how things go.  Florida, for example, is experiencing quite a spike in cases, yet their death rate doesn't seem to be increasing.  Their total cases is still lower than New York and in that vulnerable demographic, deaths are somewhere around 3,000 compared to New York at around 28,000.  Whatever they are doing, irresponsible young people and all, they seem to be protecting their older population.  Hopefully, it will stay that way.  There are some who theorize that if we take strong measures to protect the older folks and let the virus spread among the young people, it will die out much sooner.  I don't know if this is true or not, but it seems there could be something to it.  I just have to try to stay out of the way as much as I can.  That being said, statistically, folks in my age group, who are healthy, don't have to worry about it that much, although I don't particularly want to test that thought personally.

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3 hours ago, pogi said:

The reports are based on death certificates.  Deaths from Covid are counted the exact same way that deaths from flu or other infectious diseases are counted (with comorbidities or not). Many think that there is some conspiracy to count deaths from Covid when there are comorbidities to inflate numebrs or something. 

I don't doubt that in general this is likely true.  However, in Washington State it was demonstrably not true.  A conservative group did a study and found deaths that were the result of suicide, car accident, and a shooting, among other things, that were classified as Covid-19 deaths.  They found that the number of deaths in the state were overinflated by as much as 13 percent.  When they released their report, the Governor, at a press conference, called them conspiracy theory nuts and said what they were doing was, "disgusting".  Later, it turned out the report was accurate and the State could no longer deny it.  The Governor had some staffers release a statement admitting to what they termed, "an error" and promised to fix it.  The Governor never apologized or directly admitted he had been wrong.  Was it conspiracy or was it an error or something else?  I don't know, for sure, but it happened.

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2 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

I don't doubt that in general this is likely true.  However, in Washington State it was demonstrably not true.  A conservative group did a study and found deaths that were the result of suicide, car accident, and a shooting, among other things, that were classified as Covid-19 deaths.  They found that the number of deaths in the state were overinflated by as much as 13 percent.  When they released their report, the Governor, at a press conference, called them conspiracy theory nuts and said what they were doing was, "disgusting".  Later, it turned out the report was accurate and the State could no longer deny it.  The Governor had some staffers release a statement admitting to what they termed, "an error" and promised to fix it.  The Governor never apologized or directly admitted he had been wrong.  Was it conspiracy or was it an error or something else?  I don't know, for sure, but it happened.

Do you have a reference?  Thanks

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I knew it!

 

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19 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

It doesn't sound like a conspiracy to me.  Hardly can even be called a mistake.  These are some snippets form the article, the whole thing is worth a read though.

Quote

 

Hutchinson explained that the decision to provide real-time data was made early on in the pandemic and is not the DOH’s standard operating procedure for tracking deaths. The most visible result of this method is on the online dashboard that displays the deaths; every person who has died and tested positive for COVID-19 is included. 
The DOH’s normal procedure for releasing death data typically takes about 18 months, whereas COVID-19 deaths are usually being released after just one day. Hutchinson said that the department is very aware of the smaller number of deaths that have made it onto the dashboard that are later determined not to have been caused by COVID-19. These deaths will be removed over time, she said. 

“We know that the quality of information naturally improves over time,” Hutchinson said. “That will allow us to improve our death counts. Ultimately, as I will describe in a little bit, we suspect that we are actually more likely to be under counting deaths than over counting them … It may take up to a year or more to get final counts on COVID-19 deaths.”

“I want to reiterate that our information in EDRS is preliminary, not final and is kind of the processing zone for death certificates,” 

“We currently have a number where it says unspecified natural causes, for example, again for these deaths, we really aren’t able to make a determination on whether they died from COVID or not,” she said. ”We’re currently reporting only deaths that are identified to a COVID positive case. We have a number of deaths, and right now it’s just under 100, where the death certificate indicates that the person is COVID-19, or probable COVID-19, we’ve not been able to link them to a positive case in our disease tracking system. So we’re not able to definitively rule them in or rule them out.”
Hutchinson concluded her presentation with the information about 3,000 deaths that could be COVID-19 related with things like respiratory syndromes, but have not been so categorized as of yet due to a lack of testing or tracing. These deaths will be categorized into COVID-19 or not, based on data examination determining if there was a higher than average amount of deaths in that time.

https://www.clarkcountytoday.com/news/washington-department-of-health-clarifies-covid-19-death-numbers/

 

This was done in an effort to provide as real-time information to the dashboard and was not intended in any way to be a final count.  It is not a lie that it typically takes around 18 months before we get a clear more picture of death rate from any disease.  That is why flu death rates fluctuate for around 18 months after flu season ends before we get a good idea of actual deaths.  Despite the claims of inflating numbers, they suspect that actual numbers are undercounted as of yet. 

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41 minutes ago, USU78 said:

I knew it!

Yes, when talking about science, lets give air-time to a guy that believes the earth is flat and that the moon landings were fake:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhxTwcslfCY&feature=emb_rel_end

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvAk9718Jo8

I'm not laughing with him, I'm laughing at him.

Edited by pogi
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4 minutes ago, pogi said:

Yes, when talking about science, lets give air-time to a guy that believes the earth is flat and that the moon landings were fake:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhxTwcslfCY&feature=emb_rel_end

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvAk9718Jo8

I'm not laughing with him, I'm laughing at him.

Comedy is hard.

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12 minutes ago, pogi said:

It doesn't sound like a conspiracy to me.  Hardly can even be called a mistake.  These are some snippets form the article, the whole thing is worth a read though.

This was done in an effort to provide as real-time information to the dashboard and was not intended in any way to be a final count.  It is not a lie that it typically takes around 18 months before we get a clear more picture of death rate from any disease.  That is why flu death rates fluctuate for around 18 months after flu season ends before we get a good idea of actual deaths.  Despite the claims of inflating numbers, they suspect that actual numbers are undercounted as of yet. 

Frankly, this statement was made just days after the report and seems to be an effort to cover their rear ends.  If they were aware of this all along, it should have been disclosed somewhere.  Why did the Governor and the State initially  deny and dismiss the whole thing as "conspiracy theory from Pluto" and call it "disgusting"?  Why did they classify deaths as Covid-19 when the death certificates did not even mention Covid-19?  They claimed they reported the information they were given, but this was not true.  I don't know why things were done the way they were and am not ready to call it a planned effort to mislead, but I do think things smell a little fishy.

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24 minutes ago, pogi said:

Yes, when talking about science, lets give air-time to a guy that believes the earth is flat and that the moon landings were fake:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhxTwcslfCY&feature=emb_rel_end

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvAk9718Jo8

I'm not laughing with him, I'm laughing at him.

Just to clarify, his videos are satire. 

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I will say that  Washington State, generally does quite well in bad economies because of the large companies in our state such as Microsoft, Boeing, Amazon, Starbucks and others, plus it is a major port.  Unemployment is typically very low.  Right now unemployment in Washington State ranks 42nd at 15%.  This is with Amazon still booming and hiring like crazy.  Governor Inslee has been very hard on our economy with his very strict regulations during the pandemic.  Small business are getting crushed in our state.  Whether it is a concerted effort or not, I don't know, but he needs to continually come up with ways to justify his harsh response.  I don't know how businesses in this state are going to survive, mine included.  On top of all of this, Boeing, the largest employer in the state is facing real problems and are laying off thousands, which cases the economy to spiral downward even faster.  It is devastating to many individuals and families.  I don't want anyone to die, but I do think there is a point where significantly more damage can be done by the cure than by the disease.  It is a hard call to make and I would not want to be in charge right now, but, barring a serious downturn, I think Florida might have it right.  Protect the vulnerable and move the economy forward as much as possible, while still being cautious.  Only time will tell.  I hate how political it has become.

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6 hours ago, T-Shirt said:

They are stressed because they started allowing elective surgeries again and they have more non-covid patients taking up beds.  It is a number that needs to be watched but, at the same time,  you need to get the whole story.

Just to be clear, elective surgery is any surgery that is scheduled. So my sister having her brain tumor removed had elective surgery. These things can’t be put off indefinitely, so I’m not sure how it matters who is in the hospital bed. 

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1 hour ago, T-Shirt said:

If they were aware of this all along, it should have been disclosed somewhere.

How did the Freedom Foundation find out if the government was trying so hard to hide it? 

1 hour ago, T-Shirt said:

Why did the Governor and the State initially  deny and dismiss the whole thing as "conspiracy theory from Pluto" and call it "disgusting"?  

When the Freedom Foundation was claiming that the numbers are "inflated by as much as 13%", when actual estimates are that the count is actually much lower than is being reported because excess deaths have not yet been tallied, etc;  and when the Freedom Foundation says things like -

Quote

 most of the persons advising Gov. Inslee on the process of re-opening the state are donors to his campaign. Inflating the number of COVID-19 deaths further suggests Washington’s COVID-19 response has become politicized.

- then it becomes a conspiracy theory.   If the claim is that the numbers were intentionally inflated with the conspiratory end-goal of sinking his states economy and thereby sinking his own governments tax-income and budget, then that sounds like an absurd conspiracy theory from Pluto to me.  I see no reason to question the explanation of the Health Department.  It sounds perfectly reasonable to me.  The conspiracy theory, on the other hand, sounds fishy to me. 

Furthermore, 

Quote

Health officials also admitted that they made a mistake in the number of negative COVID-19 test results they have been reporting since April 21.
The health department says it combined antibody and molecular test results in its total tally of negative tests when it should have only included the molecular tests.
"We apologize for the error," a DOH spokesperson said in a statement.
This mistake means negative test numbers were inflated by 13%. The overall percentage of people who tested positive as of Monday was actually 6.2% instead of 5.5%, although the number of positive tests remains accurate, according to DOH.

For a conspiracy to try and inflate the perceived risk of Covid, they sure messed up big time with over-reporting negative Covid tests!

Edited by pogi
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27 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

Just to be clear, elective surgery is any surgery that is scheduled. So my sister having her brain tumor removed had elective surgery. These things can’t be put off indefinitely, so I’m not sure how it matters who is in the hospital bed. 

The point is, when New York's hospitals were overwhelmed, they actually were overwhelmed bu Covid-19 patients.  In Houston, the number of Covid patients was relatively low, yet the reports in the media made it sound like they were overwhelmed with covid patients, which isn't true.  My comments aren't about whether or not there are covid patients, it is about how it is reported in a misleading and alarmist way.

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