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Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate

Calm

By Calm
in General Discussions

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pogi Grand Master

pogi

Posted
Posted
On 8/5/2020 at 6:41 PM, Calm said:

Pogi (or anyone else tracking Utah numbers), has there been any change in reporting Utah stats to the public over time?  I know that some other states have made changes a few times and if I understand correctly the change to no longer reporting to the CDC delayed some hospital stats in some states. 

Just wondering if Utah has been consistent or if there is context that should be used to interpret what the stats off the UT government case counts mean overtime  

I am looking for context for someone who is taking three districts and using their stats and calculating current active cases to say the risk is the same or lessening while from what I have read, cases are less concentrated now so even if numbers were the same, you would be at higher risk than before if you were not in one of the previous clustered areas.  

They have decided the studies are all too politicized so they are only going to depend on the numbers for where they live and mostly shop, using active cases only (assuming active are resolved at two weeks).  They are assuming the percentage of non tested Covid cases is consistent over time. 

There has been no change in reporting that I am aware of.  Positive cases are dropping significantly in Utah, but percentage of positive cases remains high.  The other number that is dropping is overall testing.  People are simply testing less so the numbers are not necessarily indicative of fewer actual cases of Covid in Utah.  You are correct in that cases are less concentrated now, and community spread is still very high.   I would suggest that "they" are wrong in suggesting that "the percentage of non tested Covid cases is consistent over time.  I think there is good reason to believe that the percentage of non tested positive cases is increasing drastically.  It is thought that people are just getting fatigued and they either just assume they have Covid or don't want to know, so don't test.   

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pogi Grand Master

pogi

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, longview said:

Here are more insights on how HCQ is effective in early stages of covid infections.  

We don't know that yet.  There are a couple preliminary studies which suggest it might be.  There are lots of others (which they don't address here) which suggest it might not be.  Even they acknowledge that we don't have enough data yet to come to a conclusion. 

This Dr. suggests at 2:08 that the reports of "danger to the heart" are based on "misinterpretation of data" or on "faulty data".  This drug has been around forever.  We have known about the cardio-risks for a very long time.  I have been screening my travel patients for QT-prolongation risk when prescribing Chloroquine, before Covid was even a thing.  I am shocked that he would say such a thing.  Is this the friend of the witch doctor from the other videos?  Is this her attempt at a response to the back-lash?

 

Edited by pogi
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The Nehor Grand Master

The Nehor

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Calm said:

Hot sauce on a cracker?

No, grabbed an italian ice out of the freezer without looking and ate it with eye closed to see if I could identify flavor. Did it. It was lemon. Not berry lemon, just lemon. :)

Hopefully that means I am good.

Edit: Tested again for scientific rigot. It tasted like blue raspberry and was. I wanted to conduct further studies but realized that is the child in me wanting more sugar.

Edited by The Nehor
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The Nehor Grand Master

The Nehor

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, longview said:

Here are more insights on how HCQ is effective in early stages of covid infections.  Why there was confusion on Lancet Journal trials.

 

These people have been discredited. Simone Gold is working for a political campaign to get the lockdown lifted. She has spun folk tales about a "mass casualty event" if the lockdowns are not lifted quickly.

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JAHS Grand Master

JAHS

Posted
Posted

Some missionaries reach their international assignments as pandemic travel restrictions ease

Apparently some missionaries are being allowed to serve in their international missions again.

"The number of Latter-day Saint missionaries in some areas of the world has fallen steeply because of coronavirus-related issues, but missionaries are beginning to return to the field.

Four months after the pandemic upended the highly organized global missionary program of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, six American sister missionaries recently arrived in the Denmark Copenhagen Mission, including Sister Kendra DeLange, 19, of North Logan, Utah.

The relief was welcome in a mission where reduced numbers meant more areas were on the verge of going without missionaries, according to returned missionaries and family members.

More help is poised to crisscross the globe. Many stateside missions are full of Americans holding international mission calls who are unable to travel to their assigned callings because of pandemic-related restrictions. The U.S. State Department’s decision on Thursday to lift its Do Not Travel advisory, in place since March 19, may help."

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Calm Grand Master

Calm

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

These people have been discredited. Simone Gold is working for a political campaign to get the lockdown lifted. She has spun folk tales about a "mass casualty event" if the lockdowns are not lifted quickly.

Does she suggest what the mass casualty event will be or is she just using the phrase?

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Calm Grand Master

Calm

Posted
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Posted

I think I just got my first spam call related to Covid. Bot saying it was “Trace”, that they had been urgently trying to contact me, and to press 1 to speak to a live representative....but maybe the name is just coincidence and it is my bias making the connection.

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Calm Grand Master

Calm

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Posted
4 hours ago, pogi said:

There has been no change in reporting that I am aware of.  Positive cases are dropping significantly in Utah, but percentage of positive cases remains high.  The other number that is dropping is overall testing.  People are simply testing less so the numbers are not necessarily indicative of fewer actual cases of Covid in Utah.  You are correct in that cases are less concentrated now, and community spread is still very high.   I would suggest that "they" are wrong in suggesting that "the percentage of non tested Covid cases is consistent over time.  I think there is good reason to believe that the percentage of non tested positive cases is increasing drastically.  It is thought that people are just getting fatigued and they either just assume they have Covid or don't want to know, so don't test.   

Very helpful, thank you.

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The Nehor Grand Master

The Nehor

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Calm said:

Does she suggest what the mass casualty event will be or is she just using the phrase?

They usually keep it vague. When pressed the usual vague "explanation" is that the lockdown's isolation and economic ramifications will cause a bunch of suicides and domestic murders that dwarf the ravages of Covid.

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The Nehor Grand Master

The Nehor

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, bsjkki said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-08-05/is-it-safe-to-fly-here-are-the-odds-of-catching-covid-on-a-plane?__twitter_impression=true

I also read planes change out the air 30 times an hour. 

Depending on the model of airplane and settings it is 20-30 times an hour. That is a rough estimate and some air stays for the whole flight but it is a small percentage. An airplane is safer than setting in an identical space on the ground with normal temperature controls would be. It is suspected you are most likely to catch Covid on a plane when it is on the ground, primarily in the boarding stage which involves sustained proximity without as much air circulation as you get in the air. Exiting the plane tends to go more quickly but is also a good vector. Then again this is theory. In cases where it is suspected it spread on a plane there is no way to tell when during the flight the infection occurred.

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Rain Grand Master

Rain

Posted
Posted
On 8/7/2020 at 12:48 PM, JAHS said:

Some missionaries reach their international assignments as pandemic travel restrictions ease

Apparently some missionaries are being allowed to serve in their international missions again.

"The number of Latter-day Saint missionaries in some areas of the world has fallen steeply because of coronavirus-related issues, but missionaries are beginning to return to the field.

Four months after the pandemic upended the highly organized global missionary program of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, six American sister missionaries recently arrived in the Denmark Copenhagen Mission, including Sister Kendra DeLange, 19, of North Logan, Utah.

The relief was welcome in a mission where reduced numbers meant more areas were on the verge of going without missionaries, according to returned missionaries and family members.

More help is poised to crisscross the globe. Many stateside missions are full of Americans holding international mission calls who are unable to travel to their assigned callings because of pandemic-related restrictions. The U.S. State Department’s decision on Thursday to lift its Do Not Travel advisory, in place since March 19, may help."

We met with the missionaries this afternoon.  One served in Peru till everyone came home.  He said it has been fun to be able to do this.

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Calm Grand Master

Calm

Posted
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Posted (edited)

Longview, please do not sneak in purely political news (the last) with the partially political news.  Please edit the Taiwan bit and include links for the other two and don't do a purely political post again or I will ask that you be banned from the thread permanently if possible.
 

Edited:  (looks like the whole post is gone for those just reading now).  He should have been willing to stick to the thread rules, primarily medical content, when in doubt, please just post link at most and preferably find another source for medical info in content or don’t post here and instead start your own thread. Thank you to those who are abiding by my requests to keep the thread as a medical info resource. 

Edited by Calm
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smac97 Grand Master

smac97

Posted
Posted

Utah hit its lowest reported COVID cases in two months today, at 263.  See KSL.

Quote

The state now estimates there are 9,726 active cases of COVID-19 in Utah.

The low number of new cases also means that the state has already met Gov. Gary Herbert's goal of seeing the rolling seven-day average hit 400 new cases per day by Sept. 1. That statistic is now at 400, according to the health department, though it may fluctuate in the coming days. The rolling seven-day average for the positive test rate per day is now 8.9%.

There are currently 193 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Utah, state data shows. Of those, 79 are occupying intensive care unit, or ICU, beds across the state. About 60% of all ICU beds in the state of Utah are occupied as of Monday, while about 47% of non-ICU beds are filled, state data shows.

The new numbers indicate a 0.6% increase in positive cases since Sunday. Of the 574,560 people tested for COVID-19 in Utah so far, 7.7% have tested positive for COVID-19. The number of tests conducted has increased by 3,947 as of Monday, according to the health department.

The nine deaths reported Monday were:

  • A Grand County man who was over the age of 85 and was hospitalized when he died,
  • A Salt Lake County man who was between the ages of 65 and 84 and was a resident of a long-term care facility,
  • A Salt Lake County man who was between the ages of 65 and 84 and was hospitalized when he died,
  • A Salt Lake County woman who was over the age of 85 and was not hospitalized when she died,
  • A Salt Lake County man who was between the ages of 65 and 84 and was hospitalized when he died,
  • A Salt Lake County woman who was over the age of 85 and was a resident of a long-term care facility,
  • A Salt Lake County man who was between the ages of 25 and 44 and was hospitalized when he died,
  • A Salt Lake County woman who was between the ages of 45 and 64 and was hospitalized when she died,
  • A Washington County woman who was over the age of 85 and was a resident of a long-term care facility.

Hmm.

Thanks,

-Smac

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pogi Grand Master

pogi

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluebell said:

Thoughts on what is causing the flattening of the curve?

I have no idea.  I haven't looked into Sweden much at all.  It could very well be the same thing that is thought to be flattening Utah's curve - people are fatigued and are simply testing less.  Household contacts of positive cases who are symptomatic just assume they are infected and don't bother testing.  Other's simply don't want to know so don't test.  I don't have time to look into it further, but if I had to guess, they are probably testing less.  There is no way this is due to "herd immunity" though.  

Another potential explanation is that people are simply getting better at practicing preventive measures.  I somehow doubt that however. 

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Ahab Grand Master

Ahab

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, smac97 said:

Utah hit its lowest reported COVID cases in two months today, at 263.  See KSL.

The nine deaths reported Monday were:

  • A Grand County man who was over the age of 85 and was hospitalized when he died,
  • A Salt Lake County man who was between the ages of 65 and 84 and was a resident of a long-term care facility,
  • A Salt Lake County man who was between the ages of 65 and 84 and was hospitalized when he died,
  • A Salt Lake County woman who was over the age of 85 and was not hospitalized when she died,
  • A Salt Lake County man who was between the ages of 65 and 84 and was hospitalized when he died,
  • A Salt Lake County woman who was over the age of 85 and was a resident of a long-term care facility,
  • A Salt Lake County man who was between the ages of 25 and 44 and was hospitalized when he died,
  • A Salt Lake County woman who was between the ages of 45 and 64 and was hospitalized when she died,
  • A Washington County woman who was over the age of 85 and was a resident of a long-term care facility.

Hmm.

Thanks,

-Smac

I'm seeing a pattern here.  Most of those people who died were either in a hospital or a long-term care facility when they died.

We need to keep people out of those places!!!

 

Edited by Ahab
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