Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate

[USU78]

Judgy judginess just judgy.

[Tacenda]

This is the best thing I've read all day! https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2020/7/13/21322795/utah-covid-19-cases-masks-challenge-moonshot-labor-day?fbclid=IwAR2t4DxACoL_EkdES-gsrIt3OuBJRZ3BWOTS9itdkLmlWHjQV4VYk4ddSVo

[bluebell]

12 hours ago, Calm said:

http://kcpw.org/blog/announcements/2020-07-14/updates-on-covid-19/

If people want to post what is happening in their state or country, don't be shy.

At least the daily count has gone down several days in a row. That is good news. 

[BlueDreams]

21 hours ago, bluebell said:

Is trying to convince people to wear masks working though?  People in utah are having "I refuse to wear a mask!" protests now.  The more masks are pushed, the more people seem to be pushing back.

And it's not about teaching nose breathing, it's about looking at the situation pragmatically.  If you can't convince someone to wear a mask (which is often because they view the mask as a visual representation of them supporting specific political or idealogical positions) then is it easier and still somewhat effective to say "fine, don't wear a mask but at least keep your mouth shut in public spaces, that will help."?  

There are a vocal minority of protest, yes....but from what i'm seeing, pushing masks does work in aggregate. For example in the my grocery run this week I went to three stores with varying degrees of health consciousness. At the first they just recently decided to make masks mandatory. Everyone in the store was masked. I saw one lady after very obviously throw her mask to the ground in irritation AFTER going to the store (they were giving them out to customers who didn't have one)....but everyone was wearing one. One man walked without a mask, saw the signs, returned to his car and grabbed his mask. When push came to shove, the vast majority just want groceries and will do what's needed to get them.

At the next store there was a prominent sign saying masks are "requested"....possibly because of the hour I was shopping  (early morning to avoid crowded shopping situations), maybe 60-70% of people were wearing them. Some of the employees wouldn't wear them either. But more people were starting to get the hint.

At the last store there was no sign and maybe 50% had masks. Policy and mandates can shape behavior even if for some it's grudgingly done. 

 

With luv, 

BD

 

[Calm]

I read something that said mask wearing was going up. Iirc 86% had worn a mask sometime in the past week. Will try and find it later. 
 

Was in my med alert app. 
 

Quote

Latest data from a Gallup poll show that a record-high 86 percent of U.S. adults say they have worn a mask in public in the week prior to the survey being conducted. Just over one-half of Americans say they are worried about the lack of social distancing in their local area.

My alert tends to frame stuff positive, so here is the actual report:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/315590/americans-face-mask-usage-varies-greatly-demographics.aspx

I am going to see if they have an older one to compare. 
 

added:  “Since April, a growing minority of U.S. adults are eschewing mask usage.”

Not good. 
 

This is from the 6th:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/313463/mask-worry-lack-social-distancing.aspx

Edited July 15, 2020 by Calm

[pogi]

The CDC is saying that science is showing that wearing a mask also protects the wearer.  I always understood that masks protect other's, but I always thought it strange that no one was saying that it likely protects the wearer too.  Maybe, they simply didn't have enough evidence yet to say it officially and were being cautious after several messaging blunders. But it seems obvious that if a fabric mask filters the virus from going one way, it should also filter the virus from going the other way.  Appealing to self interest could certainly help convince some.

Stronger evidence and stronger messaging is being published every day:  

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768532?resultClick=1

 

[Calm]

I am posting this to show Americans are not the only ones struggling over face mask usage, not to be indignant over the foolishness that escalated to senselessness.

I can see why many have an inherent discomfort for it.  At the very least it can take away from the feeling of intimacy with others.  Social distancing does not just have physical results of distance, but emotional ones.  Mask wearing seems to be for some a focus of anger against the whole extraordinary hard to understand and for many hard to adapt to changes due to the plague.

Maybe this will help us to be sympathetic to those struggling with the changes. We are more likely to win hearts if our own are open.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/jul/11/thousands-march-for-french-bus-driver-who-died-after-face-mask-attack-by-passengers-video?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1H0Z6upX1tp_ieMvMKjHnPwNqy33ca11820sYUCclHMz0DchRTL6wX_6Y

Quote

Thousands of people took part in a silent march in Bayonne for Philippe Monguillot, 59, who was declared brain dead after an attack by passengers who refused to wear face masks. He later died in hospital.

Not medical info, but showing I hope the range of damage Covid is having. I may chsnge my mind and delete it later but got to run. 

Edited July 15, 2020 by Calm

[bluebell]

My close friend (who I've been best friends with since high school) was telling me on our walk this morning that her next door neighbor (who retired from the Utah Health Department after working for them for decades in some capacity that is appointed by the governor, which she couldn't remember the actual title) told her that his family had to challenge two deaths of loved ones in a care facility because they were listed as being caused by Covid when he didn't think they were.  Turned out he was right and they had to amend the death certificate.  

Now, I've heard this same claim made by my conspiracy theory friends on facebook many times and I've always dismissed it as being so dumb (that the country was listing deaths as covid just because they get money for each one to use toward studying the virus) but hearing this (which is technically hearsay since I didn't hear it directly from him) from a guy who actually has personal experience with it, and who knows the ropes of all this state health stuff, seriously has me confused.  

[pogi]

26 minutes ago, bluebell said:

My close friend (who I've been best friends with since high school) was telling me on our walk this morning that her next door neighbor (who retired from the Utah Health Department after working for them for decades in some capacity that is appointed by the governor, which she couldn't remember the actual title) told her that his family had to challenge two deaths of loved ones in a care facility because they were listed as being caused by Covid when he didn't think they were.  Turned out he was right and they had to amend the death certificate.  

Now, I've heard this same claim made by my conspiracy theory friends on facebook many times and I've always dismissed it as being so dumb (that the country was listing deaths as covid just because they get money for each one to use toward studying the virus) but hearing this (which is technically hearsay since I didn't hear it directly from him) from a guy who actually has personal experience with it, and who knows the ropes of all this state health stuff, seriously has me confused.  

Some of the problem with reporting deaths is that people want instant numbers.   The County feels pressure to publish data quickly because officials need that information to make critical decisions and are constantly hounding us.  It is not always possible to verify death immediately.  It can take months for medical examiners/coroners to make their medical judgment and for those death certificates to be processed.  Initial reports should be considered estimates.  Official numbers will not be known for a year or more (that's how long it takes to sort everything out).  This is not unique to Covid -it is true when reporting seasonal flu numbers too (and really any infectious disease).  It takes time to sort out the numbers and initial reporting is considered estimates only based on limited data and is subject to change.  I don't believe there is a conspiracy.  All estimates suggest that reporting is likely low.  

Your scenario sounds different though. If the actual death certificate was wrong (rather than the County reporting), then some other kind of mistake was made.  The people who fill out death certificates are either 1) Physicians in hospitals who were managing the patients case, or 2) if the patient dies outside the hospital, then medical examiners/coroners examine the case and complete the death certificate based on their medical judgment.  Neither physicians nor medical examiners/coroners would receive any money or bonus for inflating Covid deaths.  Those are the only people who fill out death certificates.  I highly doubt that they would be willing to put their license on the line in comfiting medical fraud so that someone else can get a small amount of money to study the virus.  Humans make mistakes and sometimes the cause of death is not always obvious.

I think that understanding the process correctly helps dissipate concerns of conspiracy.      

Edited July 15, 2020 by pogi

[bluebell]

10 minutes ago, pogi said:

Some of the problem with reporting deaths is that people want instant numbers.   The County feels pressure to publish data quickly because officials need that information to make critical decisions and are constantly hounding us.  It is not always possible to verify death immediately.  It can take months for medical examiners/coroners to make their medical judgment and for those death certificates to be processed.  Initial reports should be considered estimates.  Official numbers will not be known for a year or more (that's how long it takes to sort everything out).  This is not unique to Covid -it is true when reporting seasonal flu numbers too (and really any infectious disease).  It takes time to sort out the numbers and initial reporting is considered estimates only based on limited data and is subject to change.  I don't believe there is a conspiracy.  All estimates suggest that reporting is likely low.  

Your scenario sounds different though. If the actual death certificate was wrong (rather than the County reporting), then some other kind of mistake was made.  The people who fill out death certificates are either 1) Physicians in hospitals who were managing the patients case, or 2) if the patient dies outside the hospital, then medical examiners/coroners examine the case and complete the death certificate based on their medical judgment.  Neither physicians nor medical examiners/coroners would receive any money or bonus for inflating Covid deaths.  Those are the only people who fill out death certificates.  I highly doubt that they would be willing to put their license on the line in comfiting medical fraud so that someone else can get a small amount of money to study the virus.  Humans make mistakes and sometimes the cause of death is not always obvious.

I think that understanding the process correctly helps dissipate concerns of conspiracy.      

I'll get some more information.  It could be that she assumed the issue was with the death certificate if he didn't clarify exactly what he had to challenge.

[Meadowchik]

47 minutes ago, Calm said:

I am posting this to show Americans are not the only ones struggling over face mask usage, not to be indignant over the foolishness that escalated to senselessness.

I can see why many have an inherent discomfort for it.  At the very least it can take away from the feeling of intimacy with others.  Social distancing does not just have physical results of distance, but emotional ones.  Mask wearing seems to be for some a focus of anger against the whole extraordinary hard to understand and for many hard to adapt to changes due to the plague.

Maybe this will help us to be sympathetic to those struggling with the changes. We are more likely to win hearts if our own are open.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/jul/11/thousands-march-for-french-bus-driver-who-died-after-face-mask-attack-by-passengers-video?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1H0Z6upX1tp_ieMvMKjHnPwNqy33ca11820sYUCclHMz0DchRTL6wX_6Y

Not medical info, but showing I hope the range of damage Covid is having. I may chsnge my mind and delete it later but got to run. 

It is my understanding that there is a local problem there with people becoming violent with bus drivers whatever the request, like if they cannot pay and are asked to not board the bus. Just to give a bit more context.

[Raingirl]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

I read something that said mask wearing was going up. Iirc 86% had worn a mask sometime in the past week. Will try and find it later. 
 

Was in my med alert app. 
 

My alert tends to frame stuff positive, so here is the actual report:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/315590/americans-face-mask-usage-varies-greatly-demographics.aspx

I am going to see if they have an older one to compare. 
 

added:  “Since April, a growing minority of U.S. adults are eschewing mask usage.”

Not good. 
 

This is from the 6th:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/313463/mask-worry-lack-social-distancing.aspx

I am seeing more and more people throwing temper tantrums on social media regarding wearing a mask. Most of the time, their comments display a refusal to even consider the science.  They make claims about mask- wearing that are easily refutable by the science, but they don’t “believe” in the science. Many also make it clear that even if the science is irrefutable, it’s all about their “rights”.

Also, many comments about ‘sheep’.  Which is highly ironic when you think about it.

While I will most likely be working permanently from home, I am grateful for an employer who requires masks in all of our buildings. 

[BlueDreams]

Really good (and long) analysis of the social issues tied around the pandemic response in the US. Don’t have time right now to write my thoughts past this just yet. But I particularly liked the little bit of history lesson around our previous responses to disease control:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/magazine/covid-19-public-health-texas.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

with luv,

BD

 

[Nofear]

51 minutes ago, BlueDreams said:

Really good (and long) analysis of the social issues tied around the pandemic response in the US. Don’t have time right now to write my thoughts past this just yet. But I particularly liked the little bit of history lesson around our previous responses to disease control:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/magazine/covid-19-public-health-texas.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

Nice article indeed. Made me think of the Sanitation Movement and John Snow and the cholera epidemics. People probably did *not* like their closest water pump being locked up. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=TLpzHHbFrHY).

I've found a lot of insight from Joanathan Haidt and Moral Foundations theory. Here is an article about what he foresaw at the end of May: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/jonathan-haidt-pandemic-and-americas-polarization/612025/

He basically asserts that our current political polarization and lack of unifying leader will impair society's ability to tackle the pandemic ... that is until we get too friggin' tired of it.
 

“Since we already see signs that most Americans are exhausted by this culture war, [my hope is] that this year or into next year will be kind of a pit of despair or a pit of darkness—and then we’ll emerge from it. I need to read up on how the religious wars ended in Europe, but my second- or third hand understanding is that it wasn’t that Europeans reached some profoundly enlightened view; they just got exhausted, and they realized, you know, we’ve got to stop this. And so that is actually my main source of hope, that things are so bad now and the fact that we can’t even confront a pandemic because of our polarization. We can’t share facts, we can’t share strategies, we can’t coordinate behavior because of our polarization. I think this will become increasingly clear.”

 

[ksfisher]

1 hour ago, Nofear said:

the Sanitation Movement and John Snow and the cholera epidemics.

Are we thinking of the same John Snow?

Edited July 15, 2020 by ksfisher

[smac97]

I know a lot of people are concerned primarily with COVID directly, as we should be.  But the effects of our response to COVID also deserve some attention.  For example: 

It Starts: Mortgage Delinquencies Suddenly Soar At Record Pace

Quote

OK, it’s actually worse.

Mortgages that are in forbearance and have not missed a payment before going into forbearance don’t count as delinquent.

They’re reported as “current.” And 8.2% of all mortgages in the US – or 4.1 million loans – are currently in forbearance, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. But if they did not miss a payment before entering forbearance, they don’t count in the suddenly spiking delinquency data.

Translation: Huge numbers of home loans (mortgages) are presently in "forbearance."  That is, the homeowners are not making payments on their loans under the CARES Act.  More than four million home loans were in this category as of May 27, and per this article "over 8%" of mortgages are in forbearance. 

And yet even if we don't count these millions of non-performing loans, the number of homeowners in default (late on their payments) has seen a huge spike:

Quote

The onslaught of delinquencies came suddenly in April, according to CoreLogic, a property data and analytics company (owner of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index), which released its monthly Loan Performance Insights today. And it came after 27 months in a row of declining delinquency rates. These delinquency rates move in stages – and the early stages are now getting hit:

Transition from “Current” to 30-days past due: In April, the share of all mortgages that were past due, but less than 30 days, soared to 3.4% of all mortgages, the highest in the data going back to 1999.  

This was up from 0.7% in April last year. During the Housing Bust, this rate peaked in November 2008 at 2% (chart via CoreLogic):

Some of you may recall what the housing market looked like in 2008.  Way too many people bought way too many homes for way too much money.  I started working on foreclosures in mid-2010, and spent the next 2+ years being swamped with litigation from people trying to stop foreclosures.  The banks worked out a lot of them, but huge numbers were still foreclosed on.  And that deluge of foreclosures started with a peak default rate of 2% going back to November 2008.

We were at 3.4% in April.

And that 3.4% apparently does not include the "over 8%" of loans that are in CARES forbearance.

Ten years ago, the default rate was due to the subprime mortgage crisis.  Through much governmental, business and individual misconduct and foolishness, tons of people chose to speculate in the housing market, or else undertook far more house-related debt than they could realistically afford.  These causes, subprime lending and rampant real estate speculation, created a huge mess.

Today, the mess is COVID, and our response to it.  We have severely damaged our economy.  We have severely impaired the ability of working class Americans to make money to pay for their homes.  So they miss payments.  After missed payments come letters from the bank.  After the letters come declarations of default.  After declarations of default the foreclosure process starts, which takes at least several months.  And during all of these, there will be negotiations, bankruptcies, lawsuits, and so on.  But this process will lead inexorably, I think, to huge numbers of foreclosures, followed by huge numbers of evictions.

Back to the article:

Quote

From 30 to 59 days past due: The rate of these early delinquencies soared to 4.2% of all mortgages, the highest in the data going back to 1999. This was up from 1.7% in April last year.

From 60 to 89 days past due: As of April, this stage had not yet been impacted, with the rate remaining relatively low at 0.7% (up from 0.6% in April last year). This stage will jump in the report to be released a month from now when today’s 30-to-59-day delinquencies, that haven’t been cured by then, move into this stage.

Serious delinquencies, 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure: As of April, this stage had not been impacted, and the rate ticked down to 1.2% (from 1.3% in April a year ago). We should see the rate rise in two months and further out.

These delinquency rates are the first real impact seen on the housing market by the worst employment crisis in a lifetime, with over 32 million people claiming state or federal unemployment benefits. There is no way – despite rumors to the contrary – that a housing market sails unscathed through that kind of employment crisis.

Yes, that is my concern as well.

Quote

“With home prices expected to drop 6.6% by May 2021, thus depleting home equity buffers for borrowers, we can expect to see an increase in later-stage delinquency and foreclosure rates in the coming months,” CoreLogic said in the report.

With over 8% of the mortgages now being in forbearance, there is a lot of uncertainty about them as well – how many of them can exit forbearance or the extension and return to regular payments, and how many of them end up exiting forbearance and becoming delinquent.

CoreLogic expects to see “a rise in delinquencies in the next 12-18 months – especially as forbearance periods under the CARES Act come to a close,” the report said. To what extent the delinquencies deteriorate further depends largely on the labor market, and on unemployment, and that remains a horrible mess at the moment.

Grim stuff.

Along with all the back-and-forth about social distancing, masks, statistics, etc., I think the mid-to-long-term financial/housing consequences of lockdowns and such need to be considered.

Thanks,

-Smac

Edited July 16, 2020 by smac97

[Calm]

9 minutes ago, smac97 said:

 

Along with all the back-and-forth about social distancing, masks, statistics, etc., I think the mid-to-long-term financial/housing consequences of lockdowns and such need to be considered

This is complicated enough and having a likely massive impact that I suggest starting a new thread to avoid it taking over this one, especially since much of this is a result of economic political decisions, imo...and that leads to discussion on if such decisions were wise and how other decisions might help. 

Edited July 16, 2020 by Calm

[smac97]

9 minutes ago, Calm said:

This is complicated enough and having a likely massive impact that I suggest starting a new thread to avoid it taking over this one, especially since much of this is a result of economic political decisions, imo...and that leads to discussion on if such decisions were wise and how other decisions might help. 

I didn't think it was that political.  Mostly economic.  

Sorry.

Thanks,

-Smac

[Calm]

4 minutes ago, smac97 said:

I didn't think it was that political.  Mostly economic.  

Sorry.

Thanks,

-Smac

Still massive though no matter how you look at it.  Deserves a thread of its own. 

[provoman]

19 minutes ago, smac97 said:

I know a lot of people are concerned primarily with COVID directly, as we should be.  But the effects of our response to COVID also deserve some attention.  For example: 

It Starts: Mortgage Delinquencies Suddenly Soar At Record Pace

Translation: Huge numbers of home loans (mortgages) are presently in "forbearance."  That is, the homeowners are not making payments on their loans under the CARES Act.  More than four million home loans were in this category as of May 27, and per this article "over 8%" of mortgages are in forbearance. 

And yet even if we don't count these millions of non-performing loans, the number of homeowners in default (late on their payments) has seen a huge spike:

Some of you may recall what the housing market looked like in 2008.  Way too many people bought way too many homes for way too much money.  I started working on foreclosures in mid-2010, and spent the next 2+ years being swamped with litigation from people trying to stop foreclosures.  The banks worked out a lot of them, but huge numbers were still foreclosed on.  And that deluge of foreclosures started with a peak default rate of 2% going back to November 2008.

We were at 3.4% in April.

And that 3.4% apparently does not include the "over 8%" of loans that are in CARES forbearance.

Ten years ago, the default rate was due to the subprime mortgage crisis.  Through much governmental, business and individual misconduct and foolishness, tons of people chose to speculate in the housing market, or else undertook far more house-related debt than they could realistically afford.  These causes, subprime lending and rampant real estate speculation, created a huge mess.

Today, the mess is COVID, and our response to it.  We have severely damaged our economy.  We have severely impaired the ability of working class Americans to make money to pay for their homes.  So they miss payments.  After missed payments come letters from the bank.  After the letters come declarations of default.  After declarations of default the foreclosure process starts, which takes at least several months.  And during all of these, there will be negotiations, bankruptcies, lawsuits, and so on.  But this process will lead inexorably, I think, to huge numbers of foreclosures, followed by huge numbers of evictions.

Back to the article:

Yes, that is my concern as well.

Grim stuff.

Along with all the back-and-forth about social distancing, masks, statistics, etc., I think the mid-to-long-term financial/housing consequences of lockdowns and such need to be considered.

Thanks,

-Smac

Bail out the banks again, except this time, a bank that is bailed out must consider all debts owed to it as paid in full.  For instance if a bank has 100 mortgages it is collecting on, and that bank is bailed out...those 100 mortgages are considered paid in full, and ownsership of the mortgaged property belongs to the person in debt and not the bank. And so forth regarding any other debt owed to the bank prior to accepting a bailout

 

[Nofear]

18 hours ago, ksfisher said:

Are we thinking of the same John Snow?

Answered in the first 25 seconds of the video.

[Calm]

16 minutes ago, Nofear said:

Answered in the first 25 seconds of the video.

Answered by simply looking at spelling of names, but who can resist that gif...or is it a meme? I need to check out the difference I guess.  Whatever it is, apparently a popular one because when I mentioned John (not Jon) Snow to my daughter, she immediately went there.

Edited July 16, 2020 by Calm

[Tacenda]

1 hour ago, smac97 said:

I know a lot of people are concerned primarily with COVID directly, as we should be.  But the effects of our response to COVID also deserve some attention.  For example: 

It Starts: Mortgage Delinquencies Suddenly Soar At Record Pace

Translation: Huge numbers of home loans (mortgages) are presently in "forbearance."  That is, the homeowners are not making payments on their loans under the CARES Act.  More than four million home loans were in this category as of May 27, and per this article "over 8%" of mortgages are in forbearance. 

And yet even if we don't count these millions of non-performing loans, the number of homeowners in default (late on their payments) has seen a huge spike:

Some of you may recall what the housing market looked like in 2008.  Way too many people bought way too many homes for way too much money.  I started working on foreclosures in mid-2010, and spent the next 2+ years being swamped with litigation from people trying to stop foreclosures.  The banks worked out a lot of them, but huge numbers were still foreclosed on.  And that deluge of foreclosures started with a peak default rate of 2% going back to November 2008.

We were at 3.4% in April.

And that 3.4% apparently does not include the "over 8%" of loans that are in CARES forbearance.

Ten years ago, the default rate was due to the subprime mortgage crisis.  Through much governmental, business and individual misconduct and foolishness, tons of people chose to speculate in the housing market, or else undertook far more house-related debt than they could realistically afford.  These causes, subprime lending and rampant real estate speculation, created a huge mess.

Today, the mess is COVID, and our response to it.  We have severely damaged our economy.  We have severely impaired the ability of working class Americans to make money to pay for their homes.  So they miss payments.  After missed payments come letters from the bank.  After the letters come declarations of default.  After declarations of default the foreclosure process starts, which takes at least several months.  And during all of these, there will be negotiations, bankruptcies, lawsuits, and so on.  But this process will lead inexorably, I think, to huge numbers of foreclosures, followed by huge numbers of evictions.

Back to the article:

Yes, that is my concern as well.

Grim stuff.

Along with all the back-and-forth about social distancing, masks, statistics, etc., I think the mid-to-long-term financial/housing consequences of lockdowns and such need to be considered.

Thanks,

-Smac

If people don't want lockdown then they need to open their eyes and start wearing masks. They are the ones that are hindering our ability to stay open.

[Calm]

So they just finished the second round of testing at my mom’s assisted living place, two who tested positive the first week tested negative a week later.  It has spread to a few more people (about 20 total). What is so weird is no one is getting sick. They found out about it because someone got sick with something else. I wonder if they tested for antibodies if they would find it has been here awhile. 
 

Now I am wondering how many strains of the virus are out there. Wondering if this strain can help keep off nastier versions for a couple of months. Wondering if the doctors who are watching them are taking note of a strain that isn’t making anyone even in their 90’s sick. Seems like it would be a strain they might want to cultivate. 
 

If people weren’t dying, suffering, losing jobs, this all would be so cool.  We are all a real time biology and psychology experiment.

[smac97]

Huh.  So apparently there's a rumor going around that wearing masks lowers oxygen saturation in the blood.  Hadn't heard that.  Anyway...

Thanks,

-Smac