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How Was Your Sacrament Ordinance Performed?


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45 minutes ago, longview said:

If by "often" you mean more than 30% of the time then it would NOT be common sense.  It would call for "hedging your bets."

What I mean by "common sense" is what people label as "common sense", as in "it's only common sense to do ______".  Often doing "_____" screws stuff up worse rather than improves things, contrary to what people expect.  Common sense is just common expectations....and not even that all the time because what people view as " common sense" varies from person to person in my experience.

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2 minutes ago, ksfisher said:

Is it the high temps or the easing of restrictions?

Definitely the easing of restrictions. 

According to long-view, common sense suggests that ending quarantine and being out more in the sun should cause the number to drop.  I was being sarcastic in suggesting that high temps aren't helping by pointing out the correlation between increase in temps with increase in positive cases.  

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5 hours ago, pogi said:

If we had access to that data somehow and had controls in place where we could compare by geographic location, that would be interesting to see.

Things are really starting to spike in Utah (we had nearly 550 cases in a single day over the weekend), the timing of returning to church with this spike is really concerning to me.  

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

I think the spike this weekend would be tied to last two week's activities though, right? I don't know any wards that actually started church services two weeks ago here in salt lake, do you know of any? I think the spike has to do with reopening restaurants, clothing stores, gyms etc and of course the protests, as well as more people venturing out to play outdoors because the weather was nice.

Edited by alter idem
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5 hours ago, pogi said:

No, I think that is a very important point.  As cases continue to spike, hospitalizations are only going to increase and that is very concerning.  Now is NOT the time to get lax about this.  Those under 65 account for the vast majority of all hospitalizations, FYI.  So, if the goal is to not overwhelm hospitals, then it is very important that they take this seriously too.

But here in salt lake we didn’t overwhelm the hospitals and that doesn't seem to be a serious concern as we open up. I think we've been great about following guidelines, but there's no question that we aren't seeing the worst case scenarios some warned of.

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16 minutes ago, alter idem said:

I think the spike this weekend would be tied to last two week's activities though, right? I don't know any wards that actually started church services two weeks ago here in salt lake, do you know of any? I think the spike has to do with reopening restaurants, clothing stores, gyms etc and of course the protests, as well as more people venturing out to play outdoors because the weather was nice.

Yes, I think you are right.  I would guess that very few of these numbers are from church.   My concerns is that people are just starting to go back to church amidst these spikes, which will only fuel the spikes higher.

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15 minutes ago, alter idem said:

But here in salt lake we didn’t overwhelm the hospitals and that doesn't seem to be a serious concern as we open up. I think we've been great about following guidelines, but there's no question that we aren't seeing the worst case scenarios some warned of.

 

We wont see the corresponding spike in hospitalizations for another week.  And yes, people are concerned. 

 

Quote

 

Twenty more people required hospitalization in Utah with the disease since Friday. Now, 116 people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in the state.

 

While hospital resource use remains below capacity, Dunn said that could soon change.

“We are in a good spot, but we do know that from the time someone’s infected, it takes a little bit over a week for them to be hospitalized if they’re going to be hospitalized. So these drastic increases will increase our hospitalization over the coming weeks, and we’ll watch them closely.

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/6/6/21282647/utah-breaks-yet-another-daily-record-with-546-new-covid-19-cases-coronavirus

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, longview said:

In the summer?  Oh wow!  Common sense would point to a precipitous reduction in the rate of infection.

Data trumps common sense. Greek philosophy was based on reason without experimentation. That is how we got the four elements and other stuff later found to be nonsense. It "made sense" but was also false. Hence the need for experimentation.

4 hours ago, longview said:

The "technicians" have a lot to answer for.  They should NOT be lumping co-morbidity statistics.  Their testing protocols may be inaccurate to some significant degree.

So all cases of death from coronavirus should prioritize any other possible cause of death? That's ludicrous and amounts to special pleading. The image shows that whoever made it does not know why masks are recommended.

4 hours ago, longview said:

Sounds like an overbearing desire for stoking hysteria as much as possible.  For prolonging economic disruptions as much as possible, long as possible.

That game plays both ways. What if others want to ignore it and damp down concern because they don't want economic disruptions. Bulverism is a logical fallacy.

5 hours ago, longview said:

People getting outside and soaking in the sunshine and invigorating their bodies more should free them from the stranglehold.  It will have a cleansing effect.  The protesters, looters and anarchists will testify to that.

On the other hand, the fearful people will remain cocooned in their restricted space.  Possibly keeping the virus safely sequestered.  A negative mindset will degrade biological vitality.

The stranglehold of what? The virus? This comes down to I feel better when I am outside. That is not something that separates people. No one likes not being able to go places and do things. Even shut-ins feel better knowing it is an option. Then there is the pessimism this will destroy your body thing? What? Would you use that reasoning for someone with pre-vaccination polio back when being locked in really was hell without temperature controls, electronic entertainment, and often not even literacy to amuse yourself with a book? Realistic optimism is good. Mindless optimism leads to endless disappointment.

5 hours ago, longview said:

Just let nature take its course from now on.  No more lock downs.  Please!

You will probably get your wish unless it gets really bad. Your side won. If you are just trying to get people to admit that here it is. Is it the right move? I doubt it.

If you want me to say your analysis is right, no.

If you are upset that people are distancing and wearing masks why would you care?

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4 hours ago, alter idem said:

But here in salt lake we didn’t overwhelm the hospitals and that doesn't seem to be a serious concern as we open up. I think we've been great about following guidelines, but there's no question that we aren't seeing the worst case scenarios some warned of.

The worst case scenarios were never likely. Same with the best case scenarios.

4 hours ago, alter idem said:

I think the spike this weekend would be tied to last two week's activities though, right? I don't know any wards that actually started church services two weeks ago here in salt lake, do you know of any? I think the spike has to do with reopening restaurants, clothing stores, gyms etc and of course the protests, as well as more people venturing out to play outdoors because the weather was nice.

The last data I read gives a median time of 5-6 days (2 to 14 days being the near maximum spread) from infection to becoming symptomatic so new cases is about a week out on average from what we are doing now. Death rates are about 3-4 weeks behind on average assuming there is medical treatment available, faster if not.

 

The WHO just released new statements mostly supported by nations in the contact tracing stage of fighting the disease. Indications are asymptomatic case transmissions are very rare. Basically if you get the disease and you never show symptoms you are unlikely to spread it. Cases that have symptoms can still spread before symptoms appear but that appears to be less likely than previously thought. This is especially good news for areas that are controlling the disease through contact tracing. It means that if you find a contact of an infected person and they show no symptoms even if they caught it it is unlikely they spread it so you can cut off dead ends more easily and focus on those who manifest symptoms if you are trying to eliminate the disease.

Completely asymptomatic cases have been shown to be more rare than previously estimated. There are a fair number of mild symptoms cases and it can be hard to tell if they are a disease or due to something else.

Sadly the basic takeaway for the average person is nothing new. If you have symptoms or even just feel mildly sick you should quarantine.

 

Edit: And take it all with a grain of salt. The WHO only has (for the most part) the data others give them. Bad data, bad results.

Edited by The Nehor
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4 hours ago, The Nehor said:
9 hours ago, longview said:

Just let nature take its course from now on.  No more lock downs.  Please!

You will probably get your wish unless it gets really bad. Your side won. If you are just trying to get people to admit that here it is. Is it the right move? I doubt it.

If you want me to say your analysis is right, no.

If you are upset that people are distancing and wearing masks why would you care?

Common sense WON because nobody really believes in those draconian measures, even the collectivists and the nanny-staters.  When the looters and the anarchists took to the streets en masse and the blue state officials put a leach on law enforcement, the game was UP.

A couple of interesting comments by readers of a Townhall column:

TimothyLane  a day ago

The reason there's so much violence over masks is that the Pod People are addicted both to groupthink (which is why they reflexively wear them even when alone) and self-righteousness (which is why they attack those who think otherwise).

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    fahgettaboudit 2.0  TimothyLane  17 hours ago

    Lemme ask......
    If masks work, why the 6 feet ?
    If the 6ft works, why the masks ?
    If both work, why is there a lockdown ?
    If masks work, why did they release criminals from prison ?

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7 hours ago, pogi said:

Yes, I think you are right.  I would guess that very few of these numbers are from church.   My concerns is that people are just starting to go back to church amidst these spikes, which will only fuel the spikes higher.

I am guessing too many things opening up at once means we can’t  ‘experiment’ on how to best open up different services.  If we had opened up restaurants one week and then waited two weeks to see if a significant spike occurred and had the time to track cases to problem spots, then maybe we could fine tune that specific service to avoid further increases in cases. 

If church was the only thing that opened up one week and we had a couple of weeks or a month with just it as the change, then we could use contact tracking to find out which congregations had problems and maybe be able to come up with a more precise set of standards.  I am thinking in terms of they find churches with singing having many more cases or even contrary to expectations if those that make masks voluntary were as effective as those that didn’t, we could prevent unnecessary risks from not being strict enough as well as unnecessary frustrations from overkill.  For long term control, we need better ways of finding out what works and what doesn’t in practical, realistic settings and we are losing the opportunity by doing too much at once imo.

At this point the weak links are going to get confused with stuff that is working okay imo.  I think it a lost opportunity, but maybe the way contact tracking is done now even with multiple possible contact points, this isn’t as great of a concern as I imagine. 
 

And given the widespread protests, maybe even if that was the intent, the protests threw in too much confusion to make such a process work, so I don’t have to feel so bad since all that effort wouldn’t have work.  

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8 hours ago, pogi said:

I would guess that very few of these numbers are from church.

Pogi, my husband would like to know if confirmed cases per so many tests is the same or changing (finding more cases with fewer tests or the reverse).

He tends to be on slightly on the skeptical side in terms of risks for Utah since we started with so few cases. He is a Utahn born and bred and gets really annoyed when laws unnecessary for Utah that work for businesses back East, such as mining, get applied out here either because of ignorance or because the East doesn’t want the West to have an economic advantage, and I think he may be applying the same logic to this case. 

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5 hours ago, Calm said:

Because masks are not 100% effective nor is the six feet, but combined they add up to overall better protection. But even together, not perfect so lockdown ramps up that effectiveness by dropping number of contacts. 

I agree with the concepts.  But forcing the healthy to lose their living because of the autocratic Cuomos/Whitmers/Newsoms in the blue states?  That would be the opposite of common sense.  Frightfully antagonistic.

5 hours ago, Calm said:

I thought you were into common sense and you are repeating these types of questions?

Yet, you and Pogi have NOT responded to the serious questions.  Such as:

  • Why were covid patients forced into nursing home facilities?
  • Why were the new hospitals not even utilized for taking those patients instead of endangering the healthy nursing home residents?
  • Why were those newly constructed facilities NEVER used?
  • Why were the two Navy hospital ships (one in New York and I think the other in San Francisco) NOT have a single patient?  Even though the conflagration was horrific in New York?
  • Why are existing hospitals denying or severely degrading services to non-covid patients?
  • Why not segregate the facilities into separate locations so that one kind of service do NOT impact the others?
  • Why punish the mother and her little boy from enjoying an outing in the park (plenty of social distancing there)?
  • Why harass the long time barber from opening his tiny shop for one on one hair cut?
  • Why brutally persecute the beauty shop owner?
  • Why were felons (violent rapers, killers, etc) released from the prisons?  In several blue states no less!?!?
5 hours ago, Calm said:

Do you ask if sewer/toilet systems work to stop the spread of certain illnesses, why use toilet paper?  If toilet paper works to lower exposure to nasty germs, why wash our hands afterwards?

Eminently reasonable points.  This is a fallen world without perfect solutions.

Imposing autocratic lockdowns create more severe problems (cascading effects).  Leading to more suicides among the "on the edge" populations.  Arbitrarily denying livelihoods to various occupations designated as "non-essential" thus unjustly infringing on basic Constitutional rights.  And on and on.

The people's representatives (the Legislature), NOT the autocratic bureaucrats, should be making the guidelines for reasonable measures and compromises.

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2 hours ago, longview said:

 This is Calm, not Longview...my iPad wouldn't copy more than few words at a time so had to use a quote format.  Sorry for formatting issues, my responses in between your/longview's questions.  I may clean it up later using my phone, by old iPad isn't cooperating....

 Why were covid patients forced into nursing home facilities?

Because imo the one who insisted was incredibly stupid and I think he should be held responsible for the deaths that occurred.  But what does that have to do with the scientifically demonstrated benefit of wearing masks, social distancing and lockdown?  Errors in some applications do not negate the value of hygienic practices.  

 

Why were the new hospitals not even utilized for taking those patients instead of endangering the healthy nursing home residents?

 Because imo the one who insisted was incredibly stupid and I think he should be held responsible for the deaths that occurred.  But what does that have to do with the scientifically demonstrated benefit of wearing masks, social distancing and lockdown?  Errors in some applications do not negate the value of hygienic practices.  

 

Why were those newly constructed facilities NEVER used?

Don't know.    But what does that have to do with the scientifically demonstrated benefit of wearing masks, social distancing and lockdown?  Errors in some applications do not negate the value of hygienic practices.  

 

Why were the two Navy hospital ships (one in New York and I think the other in San Francisco) NOT have a single patient?  Even though the conflagration was horrific in New York?

 Don't know.  But what does that have to do with the scientifically demonstrated benefit of wearing masks, social distancing and lockdown?  Errors in some applications do not negate the value of hygienic practices.  

 

Why are existing hospitals denying or severely degrading services to non-covid patients?

Because there is concern that Covid will kill them if they are already compromised.  Even without Covid, hospitals can be dangerous places to be****.   They are not built to prevent transfer of every type of disease, though many have specialized quarantining areas for limited numbers.  Covid has suspected and demonstrated characteristics that are believed to drive up the risk of infection to be worse than the delaying of treatment.  But sometimes it is the patient's choice and hospitals are actually very concerned patients aren't coming in, as in the decrease of those with suspected heart attacks.  But what does that have to do with the scientifically demonstrated benefit of wearing masks, social distancing and lockdown?  Errors in some applications do not negate the value of hygienic practices.  

****https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK441857/#_article-23009_s3_

"A multistate point prevalence survey of healthcare-associated infections involving 11,282 patients from 183 US hospitals published by the CDC in 2014 had 4% of inpatients suffering from at least one of the healthcare-associated infections giving an estimated 648,000 inpatients suffering from 721,800 infections in 2011. Pneumonia (21.8%) and surgical site infections (21.8%) were the leading causes, followed by gastrointestinal infections (17.1%), urinary tract infection (12.9%) and primary bloodstream infection (9.9%). Among the pathogens causing hospital-acquired infections, C. difficile (12.1%) is the leading cause followed by Staphylococcus aureus (10.7%), Klebsiella (9.9%) and Escherichia coli (9.3%).

Due to greater awareness and preventative measures, there has been some progress in reduction in the incidence of some types of hospital-acquired infections. From 2008 through 2014, there was a 50% decrease in central line-associated bloodstream infections. There was a 17% decrease in surgical site infections related to specific procedures. From 2011 through 2014, there was an 8% decrease in C. difficile infections. There was a 13% decrease in methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) bacteremia between 2011 through 2014.[6][7]"

 

Why not segregate the facilities into separate locations so that one kind of service do NOT impact the others?

Don't know.    But what does that have to do with the scientifically demonstrated benefit of wearing masks, social distancing and lockdown?  Errors in some applications do not negate the value of hygienic practices.  

 

Why punish the mother and her little boy from enjoying an outing in the park (plenty of social distancing there)?

What park, what family?    But what does that have to do with the scientifically demonstrated benefit of wearing masks, social distancing and lockdown?  Errors in some applications do not negate the value of hygienic practices.  

 

Why harass the long time barber from opening his tiny shop for one on one hair cut?

Because close, intimate exposure where there will be one person touching the face of another who can't be masked raises chances of infection.  If you do not understand this, you need to study more how germs and viruses are spread.  Again, what does that have to do with the scientifically demonstrated benefit of wearing masks, social distancing and lockdown? 

 

Why brutally persecute the beauty shop owner?

Specify please.    But what does that have to do with the scientifically demonstrated benefit of wearing masks, social distancing and lockdown?  Errors in some applications do not negate the value of hygienic practices.  

 

 Why were felons (violent rapers, killers, etc) released from the prisons?  In several blue states no less!?!?

Don't know.  Sounds like the ones in charge were more concerned with being sued for people dying on them due to the difficulty of safe practices in prisons than they were about potential criminal acts.    But what does that have to do with the scientifically demonstrated benefit of wearing masks, social distancing and lockdown?  Errors in some applications do not negate the value of hygienic practices.  

 

 

Edited by Calm
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Longview, if you want to reply, maybe take it over to the thread that I just put up for talking about Covid in more general terms to allow discussion on sacramental variations to continue.  I can delete my post here if you move your response there.

Maybe others discussing nonsacrament issues could move over there as well.

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9 hours ago, Calm said:

I am guessing too many things opening up at once means we can’t  ‘experiment’ on how to best open up different services.  If we had opened up restaurants one week and then waited two weeks to see if a significant spike occurred and had the time to track cases to problem spots, then maybe we could fine tune that specific service to avoid further increases in cases. 

If church was the only thing that opened up one week and we had a couple of weeks or a month with just it as the change, then we could use contact tracking to find out which congregations had problems and maybe be able to come up with a more precise set of standards.  I am thinking in terms of they find churches with singing having many more cases or even contrary to expectations if those that make masks voluntary were as effective as those that didn’t, we could prevent unnecessary risks from not being strict enough as well as unnecessary frustrations from overkill.  For long term control, we need better ways of finding out what works and what doesn’t in practical, realistic settings and we are losing the opportunity by doing too much at once imo.

At this point the weak links are going to get confused with stuff that is working okay imo.  I think it a lost opportunity, but maybe the way contact tracking is done now even with multiple possible contact points, this isn’t as great of a concern as I imagine. 
 

And given the widespread protests, maybe even if that was the intent, the protests threw in too much confusion to make such a process work, so I don’t have to feel so bad since all that effort wouldn’t have work.  

Epidemiologists will be tracing outbreaks through our contact tracing work.  We will definitely be identifying wards that have outbreaks and they will be contacted by the epidemiology dept. to be educated on controlling the outbreak.  They will be asked what measures they are taking, and educated on what measures can be done to reduce risk.  I hope singing will be addressed, but I don't know.  I will make the recommendation that they ask and teach about singing when outbreaks start appearing.  

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9 hours ago, Calm said:

Pogi, my husband would like to know if confirmed cases per so many tests is the same or changing (finding more cases with fewer tests or the reverse).

He tends to be on slightly on the skeptical side in terms of risks for Utah since we started with so few cases. He is a Utahn born and bred and gets really annoyed when laws unnecessary for Utah that work for businesses back East, such as mining, get applied out here either because of ignorance or because the East doesn’t want the West to have an economic advantage, and I think he may be applying the same logic to this case. 

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

This link is a great resource that is updated daily with figures gathered from the State Health Department.  The graph entitled "Number of People Tested" will show you number of tests taken daily over time with number of positive vs negative tests.  It looks like the trend is fewer tests with more cases.  The positive rate is definitely increasing. 

https://slco.org/health/COVID-19/data/

The second one is a great resource for Salt Lake County data.  I think it is under construction until noon though. 

Edited by pogi
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6 minutes ago, pogi said:

Epidemiologists will be tracing outbreaks through our contact tracing work.  We will definitely be identifying wards that have outbreaks and they will be contacted by the epidemiology dept. to be educated on controlling the outbreak.  They will be asked what measures they are taking, and educated on what measures can be done to reduce risk.  I hope singing will be addressed, but I don't know.  I will make the recommendation that they ask and teach about singing when outbreaks start appearing.  

So interesting (and reassuring in that unknowns create uncertainty creates anxiety) to hear behind the scenes info.  Thank you for taking the time and making the effort when you might be rather tired of the topic by now.

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4 minutes ago, pogi said:

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

This link is a great resource that is updated daily with figures gathered from the State Health Department.  The graph entitled "Number of People Tested" will show you number of tests taken daily over time with number of positive vs negative tests.  It looks like the trend is fewer tests with more cases.  The positive rate is definitely increasing. 

https://slco.org/health/COVID-19/data/

The second one is a great resource for Salt Lake County data.  I think it is under construction until noon though. 

I am parked on the first one tracking number of cases for my town and towns surrounding it in hopes of being prepared for if/when my daughter thinks we need to go to next level lockdown.  Not really looking at anything else though most days.

Edited by Calm
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4 hours ago, longview said:

Yet, you and Pogi have NOT responded to the serious questions.  Such as:

  • Why were covid patients forced into nursing home facilities?
  • Why were the new hospitals not even utilized for taking those patients instead of endangering the healthy nursing home residents?
  • Why were those newly constructed facilities NEVER used?
  • Why were the two Navy hospital ships (one in New York and I think the other in San Francisco) NOT have a single patient?  Even though the conflagration was horrific in New York?
  • Why are existing hospitals denying or severely degrading services to non-covid patients?
  • Why not segregate the facilities into separate locations so that one kind of service do NOT impact the others?
  • Why punish the mother and her little boy from enjoying an outing in the park (plenty of social distancing there)?
  • Why harass the long time barber from opening his tiny shop for one on one hair cut?
  • Why brutally persecute the beauty shop owner?
  • Why were felons (violent rapers, killers, etc) released from the prisons?  In several blue states no less!?!?

How do you expect us to know the answers to all of these.  I am not Governor Cuomo.  You seem to have serious beef with how he handled things.  I do to in regards to nursing homes.   But I am wondering why you are asking them.  What is your conspiracy theory behind these questions?  Do you think blue governors are conspiring to ramp up infections in order to close down their very own economies?  What do these questions have to do with Covid precautions?

Unused Hospitals:

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients

Hospital Ships: They did have patients.

"Why are existing hospitals denying or severely degrading services to non-covid patients?"

1) Triage, 2) To reduce risk of nosocomial infections with elective procedures

"Why not segregate the facilities into separate locations so that one kind of service do NOT impact the others?"

Every hospital I know of has a separate Covid unit.  Or, are you talking about making one hospital a Covid hospital and another hospital a cardio/pulmonary hospital etc.?  If that is your question, it's hard to believe it is even being asked.

 I can't comment on the barber or beauty shop issues.  I don't know what you are talking about, but they probably violated state orders.  That would piss me off it I was a business owner trying to follow the rules and a competitor was disregarding the rules all the other business owners had to follow. 

"Why were felons (violent rapers, killers, etc) released from the prisons?  In several blue states no less!?!?"

Not only is that political, it is false to pretend like only blue states did this.  Don't you listen to Fox news?  

https://www.foxnews.com/us/here-is-how-many-prisoners-have-been-released-covid-19

1) They were within a month or two of being released or were non-violent crimes, 2) they were considered high risk for severe morbidity or morality from Covid, 3) there are huge outbreaks in the prison and the best way to control it is to reduce numbers.  

It seems this practice is color blind.  f they were within a month or 2 of being released or were non-violent AND high risk, it is beyond unmerciful and unethical to play Russian roulette with their lives in a prison with an outbreak.  Get real!  They do not deserve the death penalty or trauma associated with these outbreaks in prisons when they know they are high risk to die or be placed on a respirator!

4 hours ago, longview said:

Imposing autocratic lockdowns create more severe problems (cascading effects).  Leading to more suicides among the "on the edge" populations.  Arbitrarily denying livelihoods to various occupations designated as "non-essential" thus unjustly infringing on basic Constitutional rights.  And on and on.

The people's representatives (the Legislature), NOT the autocratic bureaucrats, should be making the guidelines for reasonable measures and compromises.

I think every state in the nation had lockdowns or restrictions to some degree, including the white house.  I guess everyone is blind but you. 

 

 

Edited by pogi
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Thank you all for participating in this thread. It has been a wonderful blessing to have church at home and it is also nice to go back to church.

Mods, can please shut down this thread as it has fulfilled its use.

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