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Observations From the 2019 Statistical Report


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The 2019 Statistical Report has been published.  Since it is of interest to me, here are some of my observations:

Membership growth rate of 1.54% held right around the 5-year average.

Members still having fewer babies... growth rate for increase in children of record continued its decade long decline.

Converts baptized as a percentage of total membership at 1.50%... up slightly but still trending in a decades long decline.

Death rate still way lower than global average, likely due to not getting people off the rosters when they die.

Converts per mission is up to 7.4... highest it has been since pre-surge (2012).

Church service missionaries had been trending up but was down for 2019.  That one surprised me.  But, sadly, we're gonna see a major blip in all of the missionary-related figures for 2020.  I anticipate that will interrupt any trends we may think we're seeing.

43 temples announced but not yet begun (including the 8 announced yesterday).  Over the last five years, we have averaged 4.6 temple completions per year.  14 currently under construction + 43 announced gives us 57 in the pipeline.  That's 12 years worth of temples to build if we can't figure out how to do them faster.

And to end on a positive note:  If you look at the number of members per temple, we've been trending down for decades.  Back in the 70's there were about a quarter-million members for every temple.  In 2019, we broke below the 100k mark.  99,000 members per (operating) temple (167) at the end of last year.

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1 hour ago, rockpond said:

The 2019 Statistical Report has been published.  Since it is of interest to me, here are some of my observations:

Membership growth rate of 1.54% held right around the 5-year average.

Members still having fewer babies... growth rate for increase in children of record continued its decade long decline.

Converts baptized as a percentage of total membership at 1.50%... up slightly but still trending in a decades long decline.

Death rate still way lower than global average, likely due to not getting people off the rosters when they die.

Converts per mission is up to 7.4... highest it has been since pre-surge (2012).

Church service missionaries had been trending up but was down for 2019.  That one surprised me.  But, sadly, we're gonna see a major blip in all of the missionary-related figures for 2020.  I anticipate that will interrupt any trends we may think we're seeing.

43 temples announced but not yet begun (including the 8 announced yesterday).  Over the last five years, we have averaged 4.6 temple completions per year.  14 currently under construction + 43 announced gives us 57 in the pipeline.  That's 12 years worth of temples to build if we can't figure out how to do them faster.

And to end on a positive note:  If you look at the number of members per temple, we've been trending down for decades.  Back in the 70's there were about a quarter-million members for every temple.  In 2019, we broke below the 100k mark.  99,000 members per (operating) temple (167) at the end of last year.

If converts baptized per total membership is up, even slightly, how is that “still trending a decades-long decline”? I could see concluding that if the year-over-year number were down, but you tell us it’s up. 
 

Also, why are you so quick to conclude that the death is lower than the global average “due to not getting deceased persons off the rosters”? From my fairly recent vantage point as a member of the ward clerk staff, it seems to me the records are reasonably current. I suppose I could check my “Membership Tools” app for the names of persons who have recently died, but I’d be surprised to find any. 
 

Finally, the “blip” you predict,  presumably occasioned by the pandemic, I expect will turn out to be an anomaly, that the work will quickly resume at its previous pace once a state of normalcy is reached. 

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25 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

If converts baptized per total membership is up, even slightly, how is that “still trending a decades-long decline”? I could see concluding that if the year-over-year number were down, but you tell us it’s up. 
 

Also, why are you so quick to conclude that the death is lower than the global average “due to not getting deceased persons off the rosters”? From my fairly recent vantage point as a member of the ward clerk staff, it seems to me the records are reasonably current. I suppose I could check my “Membership Tools” app for the names of persons who have recently died, but I’d be surprised to find any. 
 

Finally, the “blip” you predict,  presumably occasioned by the pandemic, I expect will turn out to be an anomaly, that the work will quickly resume at its previous pace once a state of normalcy is reached. 

My guess is the life expectancy of being longer than average leads to lower deaths among the Saints

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16 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

If converts baptized per total membership is up, even slightly, how is that “still trending a decades-long decline”? I could see concluding that if the year-over-year number were down, but you tell us it’s up. 

Observing the general trend, not year to year fluctuations.  The slight increase doesn't indicate a change or shift in the trend.

16 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Also, why are you so quick to conclude that the death is lower than the global average “due to not getting deceased persons off the rosters”? From my fairly recent vantage point as a member of the ward clerk staff, it seems to me the records are reasonably current. I suppose I could check my “Membership Tools” app for the names of persons who have recently died, but I’d be surprised to find any.

I'm open to other explanations.  That's the best one that I can surmise.  Although I should add that given how high the death rate was last year, it could also be indicative of how and when records are cleaned up.

16 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Finally, the “blip” you predict,  presumably occasioned by the pandemic, I expect will turn out to be an anomaly, that the work will quickly resume at its previous pace once a state of normalcy is reached. 

I agree.  I was suggesting an anomaly when I used "blip" and said that it would interrupt any trends.  

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1 minute ago, Avatar4321 said:

My guess is the life expectancy of being longer than average leads to lower deaths among the Saints

2019 was less than 5.6 deaths per 1,000 members vs a global average of 7.7 deaths per 1,000 members.  I think that is too large of a difference to ascribe solely to longer life expectancy.

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54 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Also, why are you so quick to conclude that the death is lower than the global average “due to not getting deceased persons off the rosters”? From my fairly recent vantage point as a member of the ward clerk staff, it seems to me the records are reasonably current. I suppose I could check my “Membership Tools” app for the names of persons who have recently died, but I’d be surprised to find any. 

 

27 minutes ago, rockpond said:

I'm open to other explanations.  That's the best one that I can surmise.  Although I should add that given how high the death rate was last year, it could also be indicative of how and when records are cleaned up.

I concur with Scott Lloyd.  In my past experience as a membership clerk and later as a ward clerk, and even now when observing when deaths occur within our current ward and the member who died disappears from the membership app, the membership records are updated rather quickly.   So I highly doubt the lower death rate has anything to do with updating the records.

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3 minutes ago, InCognitus said:

 

I concur with Scott Lloyd.  In my past experience as a membership clerk and later as a ward clerk, and even now when observing when deaths occur within our current ward and the member who died disappears from the membership app, the membership records are updated rather quickly.   So I highly doubt the lower death rate has anything to do with updating the records.

It's good anecdotal data.  I also suspect that Scott's experience as a clerk in a Utah ward is not necessarily representative of the rest of the world.

I look at my ward list and there are members who will not open the door for us and do not have any contact info listed.  If they died, we wouldn't know.

How many records are in the lost location files in SLC?

 

Anyone willing to offer another theory that fits the data?  Or are just shooting mine down?

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44 minutes ago, rockpond said:

It's good anecdotal data.  I also suspect that Scott's experience as a clerk in a Utah ward is not necessarily representative of the rest of the world.

I look at my ward list and there are members who will not open the door for us and do not have any contact info listed.  If they died, we wouldn't know.

How many records are in the lost location files in SLC?

 

Anyone willing to offer another theory that fits the data?  Or are just shooting mine down?

I'm outside of Utah, and we still visit the people who won't open the door every so often to check on them and, if they are not friendly, ask if they want their name removed.  Few take us up on the offer.

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56 minutes ago, InCognitus said:

I concur with Scott Lloyd.  In my past experience as a membership clerk and later as a ward clerk, and even now when observing when deaths occur within our current ward and the member who died disappears from the membership app, the membership records are updated rather quickly.   So I highly doubt the lower death rate has anything to do with updating the records.

A member only disappears from the membership list when their death is recorded by a ward clerk. When I was a missionary in Chile in the mid-1990s there were wards with several hundred inactive members on the rolls. I doubt very much that all deaths of inactives get recorded by the ward clerk everywhere in the world. When I was executive secretary a few years ago I found that a child's baptism was missed by the ward clerk. He didn't attend the baptism so it wasn't recorded. I noticed it 6 months later. Luckily the parents remembered the date.

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1 hour ago, InCognitus said:

I'm outside of Utah, and we still visit the people who won't open the door every so often to check on them and, if they are not friendly, ask if they want their name removed.  Few take us up on the offer.

If they won't answer the door, how do you check on them?

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9 minutes ago, rockpond said:

If they won't answer the door, how do you check on them?

We do all sorts of stuff in our ward, from talking to the neighbors, to looking them up on Facebook. It doesn’t always provide answers but sometimes it does. 

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2 hours ago, rockpond said:

It's good anecdotal data.  I also suspect that Scott's experience as a clerk in a Utah ward is not necessarily representative of the rest of the world.

I look at my ward list and there are members who will not open the door for us and do not have any contact info listed.  If they died, we wouldn't know.

How many records are in the lost location files in SLC?

 

Anyone willing to offer another theory that fits the data?  Or are just shooting mine down?

Repeating your point, I would guess that of 16 million members on the rolls, 2 or 3 million are deeply lost and won't be removed until they are presumed dead, which is widely believed not to happen until their 110th birthday. Having a big percentage of members with THAT kind of longevity will keep the overall death rate low.

Other factors: the church is young compared to the overall population--having bigger, younger families means a much higher percentage of the church's membership is under the age of 60/70/80 compared to society at large. That can and surely does play a huge role.

Also, women tend to live longer than men, and women are also more likely to be members of the church.

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10 minutes ago, Analytics said:

Repeating your point, I would guess that of 16 million members on the rolls, 2 or 3 million are deeply lost and won't be removed until they are presumed dead, which is widely believed not to happen until their 110th birthday. Having a big percentage of members with THAT kind of longevity will keep the overall death rate low.

This is my assumption.

10 minutes ago, Analytics said:

Other factors: the church is young compared to the overall population--having bigger, younger families means a much higher percentage of the church's membership is under the age of 60/70/80 compared to society at large. That can and surely does play a huge role.

Also, women tend to live longer than men, and women are also more likely to be members of the church.

Both could play a part though they don't seem big enough factors, especially when comparing to a global population.

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9 hours ago, rockpond said:

Although I should add that given how high the death rate was last year, it could also be indicative of how and when records are cleaned up.

My understanding is they have gotten very good at tracking down the missing, though that might be more for the US and other countries where people post their lives online so much, etc.  Trying to remember my source. 

Edited by Calm
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5 hours ago, Calm said:

My understanding is they have gotten very good at tracking down the missing, though that might be more for the US and other countries where people post their lives online so much, etc.  Trying to remember my source. 

Church office building certainly tries (they check with family to try to get valid addresses), but in my experience, even in the U.S. and even in the intermountain West, there are zillions of unverifiable members that the Church has no idea where they are or even if they are alive. I would estimate the Address Unknown file to be at least 3 million members. 

I'm not OCD (common usage, not clinical diagnosis) about much at all, but I always was fanatical about my ward lists reflecting reality (you get a lot of family, by the way, who want you to "just leave their records in your ward; they don't want to be bothered" when you check with family to get current addresses). When you make sure you can account for every man, woman, and child on your list, it takes a herculean effort to keep it that way, because Salt Lake keeps sending you back bad files from months or years ago that they are trying to clean out of Address Unknown. Simply because the record used to be in your ward, not because they got recent and good intel. I've gotten some nasty grams from the Church telling me to stop sending these records back, and I replied that we had gone through the multi-step verification process, and they are not at this address, and are unverifiable. I've even paid for one of those "deep dive" subscriptions where you can get more info than just using the internet alone (which help in some cases), but the Church fights you on bad records and would much rather keep those records at the ward level rather than Address Unknown. It becomes a game of hot potato, where you have to be a little firm when they keep kicking back bad records every few months, and it helps to keep a comprehensive list of names you have returned so when they pop up months to years later, you can send 'em right back (after verifying that they didn't, actually, move back into an old address).

I even found an inactive, uncontactable member in a SL Tribune story as having been murdered in her car on the U of U campus. It was her, both from the age, unique name, and the funeral information (listed parents on her membership record). Salt Lake dragged their feet on recording the death, even when I provided all of this information (news article, funeral program, etc.). 

ETA: Missionaries are happy to help you clean up the list, and they find people to teach and work with through that. Sending letters with the official Church address forwarding helps, too, because you sometimes get yellow labels back from USPS with updated addresses. With all that, though, there are members who will never answer the door, return email or text, or answer the phone. They may be there, they may not, or they may be dead, and no one will ever know. Family can be very uncooperative, too. 

ETA: I would say that, easily, at least 50 records in most wards (and many more than that, in others), even in the intermountain West, are records of people who are not actually in the boundaries at that address.

Edited by rongo
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I'll try to put some context around this...

Current estimates put the global death rate at 7.7 per 1,000.

In the past decade, a triangulated death rate for church membership has varied from a low of 3.7 per 1,000 to a high of 8.7.  (Just a coincidence that all these numbers end in .7, not every year is like that.)

That's a huge delta for something that should be fairly stable barring global pandemics, world war, etc.

I should also note that the "triangulated death rate" figure includes resignations and excommunications.  I can't factor those out so they are a confounding factor.  However, most here seem to agree that resignations/excommunications are a small and relatively insignificant number.

Back to my point, that variability in death rate seems to imply (to me, at least) that there is some sort of human interference in the data.  Thus, I concluded that it may have to do with how and when old records are purged.

Again, I'm open to other theories, but that's the best I've got right now.

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2 hours ago, rongo said:

Church office building certainly tries (they check with family to try to get valid addresses), but in my experience, even in the U.S. and even in the intermountain West, there are zillions of unverifiable members that the Church has no idea where they are or even if they are alive. I would estimate the Address Unknown file to be at least 3 million members. 

I'm not OCD (common usage, not clinical diagnosis) about much at all, but I always was fanatical about my ward lists reflecting reality (you get a lot of family, by the way, who want you to "just leave their records in your ward; they don't want to be bothered" when you check with family to get current addresses). When you make sure you can account for every man, woman, and child on your list, it takes a herculean effort to keep it that way, because Salt Lake keeps sending you back bad files from months or years ago that they are trying to clean out of Address Unknown. Simply because the record used to be in your ward, not because they got recent and good intel. I've gotten some nasty grams from the Church telling me to stop sending these records back, and I replied that we had gone through the multi-step verification process, and they are not at this address, and are unverifiable. I've even paid for one of those "deep dive" subscriptions where you can get more info than just using the internet alone (which help in some cases), but the Church fights you on bad records and would much rather keep those records at the ward level rather than Address Unknown. It becomes a game of hot potato, where you have to be a little firm when they keep kicking back bad records every few months, and it helps to keep a comprehensive list of names you have returned so when they pop up months to years later, you can send 'em right back (after verifying that they didn't, actually, move back into an old address).

I even found an inactive, uncontactable member in a SL Tribune story as having been murdered in her car on the U of U campus. It was her, both from the age, unique name, and the funeral information (listed parents on her membership record). Salt Lake dragged their feet on recording the death, even when I provided all of this information (news article, funeral program, etc.). 

ETA: Missionaries are happy to help you clean up the list, and they find people to teach and work with through that. Sending letters with the official Church address forwarding helps, too, because you sometimes get yellow labels back from USPS with updated addresses. With all that, though, there are members who will never answer the door, return email or text, or answer the phone. They may be there, they may not, or they may be dead, and no one will ever know. Family can be very uncooperative, too. 

ETA: I would say that, easily, at least 50 records in most wards (and many more than that, in others), even in the intermountain West, are records of people who are not actually in the boundaries at that address.

The yellow stickers are great. The Relief Society sending out cards to everyone twice a year is definitely worth it based on this alone.

The Church is pretty good with using people-finding software. The ones that tend to vanish or keep coming back are usually the ones who live less "on the grid" who rent or couch-surf or live with family. College student age people are hard to find sometimes. Elderly who live with their children are also often hard to find because there are no property records to find.

I have been accused of being "creepy" for the methods I use to find people. I am not planting cameras or bugs, it is all online information. I am okay with that assessment.

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9 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

The yellow stickers are great. The Relief Society sending out cards to everyone twice a year is definitely worth it based on this alone.

I call those "sonar pings." You either get updated addresses, or "No such person at this address," which is also good information (you go further through the checklist, but you know they aren't there).

The Church is pretty good with using people-finding software. The ones that tend to vanish or keep coming back are usually the ones who live less "on the grid" who rent or couch-surf or live with family. College student age people are hard to find sometimes. Elderly who live with their children are also often hard to find because there are no property records to find.

We're probably in for years of this, like with 2008, with the economic devastation from Coronavirus restrictions. Lots of multi-generational housing, and parents saying, "We'll just keep their records with us, even though they don't live with us." 

I have been accused of being "creepy" for the methods I use to find people. I am not planting cameras or bugs, it is all online information. I am okay with that assessment.

All's fair in love, war, and cleaning up MLS. :) 

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20 hours ago, rockpond said:

43 temples announced but not yet begun (including the 8 announced yesterday).  Over the last five years, we have averaged 4.6 temple completions per year.  14 currently under construction + 43 announced gives us 57 in the pipeline.  That's 12 years worth of temples to build if we can't figure out how to do them faster.

I just read an LDS Living article on Elder Bednar's talk pointed out something I had missed:  He said that we would break ground on 18 temples this year.  That's good news.  If we can break ground each year on slightly more temples than we announce, we should be able to chip away at that backlog.

 

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On 4/7/2020 at 12:21 PM, rockpond said:

I just read an LDS Living article on Elder Bednar's talk pointed out something I had missed:  He said that we would break ground on 18 temples this year.  That's good news.  If we can break ground each year on slightly more temples than we announce, we should be able to chip away at that backlog.

 

I would not be surprised if Covid-19 might delay these "groundbreakings". And even after there is a groundbreaking, construction may not start until much later due to a number of factors. The Winnipeg Temple was announced in 2011, groundbreaking December 2016 and construction didn't start until approximately 18 months later. As far as I know the dedication won't happen until late 2020. So from announcement to dedication, almost 10 years can go by.

M.

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1 hour ago, Maureen said:

I would not be surprised if Covid-19 might delay these "groundbreakings". And even after there is a groundbreaking, construction may not start until much later due to a number of factors. The Winnipeg Temple was announced in 2011, groundbreaking December 2016 and construction didn't start until approximately 18 months later. As far as I know the dedication won't happen until late 2020. So from announcement to dedication, almost 10 years can go by.

M.

10 years is to be expected considering we currently have a 12+ year backlog of temples to build (at current rates).

Professionally, I am involved in real estate development with projects currently moving forward in two US states right now.  Even though both states are under "stay at home" orders, all construction work (and associated activities such as plan review and permitting) are all exempted from the stay at home orders.  So, theoretically, the groundbreakings could move forward this year.  But that's solely based on my limited geographic experience.  (Trying to be optimistic.)

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