Coronavirus and General Conference

[carbon dioxide]

What are you thoughts on Coronavirus and General Conference this year.  I believe out of safety to everyone, they have only speakers and the choirs this year.  We can all watch conference in the safety of our homes. 

[HappyJackWagon]

Seems extreme.

There have always been sick people and viruses that make large gatherings somewhat risky. If they cancel the gathering for conference, why not just cancel for church each Sunday for the next 6 months until its run its course?

Having said that, there are obviously some people who are more vulnerable and/or in close relationship with those who are (work, home etc) who shouldn't risk it. I feel more danger at church taking the sacrament and having people hack all around me.

[carbon dioxide]

7 minutes ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Seems extreme.

There have always been sick people and viruses that make large gatherings somewhat risky. If they cancel the gathering for conference, why not just cancel for church each Sunday for the next 6 months until its run its course?

Having said that, there are obviously some people who are more vulnerable and/or in close relationship with those who are (work, home etc) who shouldn't risk it. I feel more danger at church taking the sacrament and having people hack all around me.

Ok but on the flip side, in a place of 5 meetings and perhaps 80,000 people, if the virus gets on seats, rails, and other things, that can spread to a lot of people quickly.  At least going to a regular ward, you can sit away from people and wipe down surfaces easier.  The more you stack in a single place, the greater the risk.   This is not your normal virus.  Perhaps the media is overblowing it a bit but even still, it is far worse for older people than the regular flu. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by carbon dioxide

[Ahab]

You forgot the "not my business and they can decide what they think is best" option.  My wife and I will be at home and prepared to watch it on our TV if they decide to broadcast it.  If they don't, well, who knows what we would do.

[ksfisher]

53 minutes ago, carbon dioxide said:

What are you thoughts on Coronavirus and General Conference this year.  I believe out of safety to everyone, they have only speakers and the choirs this year.  We can all watch conference in the safety of our homes. 

A couple of facts for perspective:

"COVID-19 has killed more than 3,000 people and infected more than 88,000 since it was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December."

"At the same time in the northern hemisphere, it’s the tail-end of flu season. So far in the US, there have been around 32 million flu illnesses and 18,000 deaths from flu, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

"Worldwide, annual flu epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, according to the WHO, and about 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths."

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/coronavirus-flu-healthcare-symptoms/

 

It sound like we should be cancelling conference every year because of the flu.

[bsjkki]

I did see that some areas are recommending those over 60 avoid crowds and large gatherings. The death rate only tells half the story with the Coronavirus. I think in a few weeks we will have a better picture of what's coming. The immense need for hospitalization  is part of the issue with this virus and the larger death rate for the elderly is a concern.

[Calm]

26 minutes ago, ksfisher said:

A couple of facts for perspective:

"COVID-19 has killed more than 3,000 people and infected more than 88,000 since it was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December."

"At the same time in the northern hemisphere, it’s the tail-end of flu season. So far in the US, there have been around 32 million flu illnesses and 18,000 deaths from flu, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

"Worldwide, annual flu epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, according to the WHO, and about 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths."

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/coronavirus-flu-healthcare-symptoms/

 

It sound like we should be cancelling conference every year because of the flu.

How many exposures to the virus have there been so far as opposed to worldwide exposures to the flu?  Compare comparable stats.

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, carbon dioxide said:

What are you thoughts on Coronavirus and General Conference this year.  I believe out of safety to everyone, they have only speakers and the choirs this year.  We can all watch conference in the safety of our homes. 

You missed the opportunity to provide a third choice:  Obey the Prophet.

After all, if he says it's safe, what more assurance do we need?  He is infallible, right?

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Seems extreme.

There have always been sick people and viruses that make large gatherings somewhat risky. If they cancel the gathering for conference, why not just cancel for church each Sunday for the next 6 months until its run its course?

What would be the overall effect on the LDS Church if the entire membership discontinued attending for 6 months?  And if all missions were shut down for that period as well?  For safety's sake.

Could the Church operate entirely as an online church, with webinars, email, texting, and the like?  Could it survive?

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Having said that, there are obviously some people who are more vulnerable and/or in close relationship with those who are (work, home etc) who shouldn't risk it. I feel more danger at church taking the sacrament and having people hack all around me.

Exactly.  So, are you going to run the risk of going to church regularly?

[Calm]

1 minute ago, Robert F. Smith said:

What would be the overall effect on the LDS Church if the entire membership discontinued attending for 6 months?  And if all missions were shut down for that period as well?  For safety's sake.

The implementation of the Come Follow Me program would work pretty well for online group and off line personal study imo.

[pogi]

48 minutes ago, ksfisher said:

A couple of facts for perspective:

"COVID-19 has killed more than 3,000 people and infected more than 88,000 since it was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December."

"At the same time in the northern hemisphere, it’s the tail-end of flu season. So far in the US, there have been around 32 million flu illnesses and 18,000 deaths from flu, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

"Worldwide, annual flu epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, according to the WHO, and about 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths."

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/coronavirus-flu-healthcare-symptoms/

 

It sound like we should be cancelling conference every year because of the flu.

The concern is that the coronavirus has a much higher fatality rate than the seasonal flu.  Estimates are anywhere between 1.5%-2.5% for coronavirus and 0.1% for seasonal flu.  The Spanish flu in 1918 was estimated to have a fatality rate of 2.5% (about the same as coronavirus) - that killed upwards of 100 MILLION people by the time it was done!  With much larger world populations today, a virus with a fatality rate of 2.5% could kill WAY more than even the Spanish flu did.  

Lets talk gross numbers once this virus has worked its way through the population. Too many unknowns still - hence the need for precaution.  

Edited March 6, 2020 by pogi

[MustardSeed]

39 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

You missed the opportunity to provide a third choice:  Obey the Prophet.

After all, if he says it's safe, what more assurance do we need?  He is infallible, right?

That's not how this works. That's not how ANY of this works!  

[carbon dioxide]

 

1 hour ago, Robert F. Smith said:

You missed the opportunity to provide a third choice:  Obey the Prophet.

After all, if he says it's safe, what more assurance do we need?  He is infallible, right?

I have never said any prophet is infallible except Jesus.  Actually I believe its more likely Pres Nelson would do something like this being a retired doctor himself. 

[carbon dioxide]

2 hours ago, ksfisher said:

It sound like we should be cancelling conference every year because of the flu.

This virus is different and there is still a lot known about it.  I am not suggesting cancel conference.  99% of members in the church watch conference on TV or online.  My only suggesting is since the audience itself is not a critical component of conference, it can be done successfully without having tens of thousands of people coming and going in a building over two days.  I personally am not worried.  I am watching it on TV.   I just hope and pray that if no changes are made that it does not result in  older members are infected.  I trust that Pres Nelson will do the right thing regardless.

Edited March 7, 2020 by carbon dioxide

[ksfisher]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

How many exposures to the virus have there been so far as opposed to worldwide exposures to the flu?  Compare comparable stats.

Contagiousness

How far a virus will spread comes down to what’s known as the reproduction number, or R0. It relates to how many people each infected person will pass the illness on to. 

There have been various estimates for new coronavirus so far from different sources, but the WHO put a preliminary estimate as between 1.4 and 2.5.

The pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus, which was also known as swine flu, had a R0 of between 1.2 to 1.6, according to the WHO, which made controlling its spread easier than viruses with higher transmissibility.

Measles has a much higher R0 at 12 to 18 people.

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, MustardSeed said:

That's not how this works. That's not how ANY of this works!  

I thought it was an opinion survey, not a factual estimate from the CDC.

[Robert F. Smith]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

The implementation of the Come Follow Me program would work pretty well for online group and off line personal study imo.

Yeh, but would that affect activity levels after the hiatus?  What would baptismal rates look like?

[Calm]

43 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Yeh, but would that affect activity levels after the hiatus?  What would baptismal rates look like?

I don't know.  Who knows, it might improve both if members get personally inspired and then afterwards embrace missionary work stronger than before.

We did a lot of scripture reading when we lived in Russia and had few that would talk to us except when we went to church or hung out at the US Embassy.  Remarkable how much time one gets when one cuts traveling down to necessities.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Calm

[provoman]

Corona virus is/was in Utah as of 3 days ago; "Medical Center in Murray is treating a patient with coronavirus inside a special unit separated from the hospital."

though the State Of Utah claims "doesn't have a confirmed case of COVID-19", claiming that since the diagnosis was not made in Utah it is not a confirmed diagnosis in Utah.

Broadcast tv, Internet, radio, are all available for use for Conference. If gathering in Conference Center is cancelled, I will feel sad for those who traveled for it. 

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by provoman

[Calm]

38 minutes ago, provoman said:

Corona virus is/was in Utah as of 3 days ago; "Medical Center in Murray is treating a patient with coronavirus inside a special unit separated from the hospital."

though the State Of Utah claims "doesn't have a confirmed case of COVID-19", claiming that since the diagnosis was not made in Utah it is not a confirmed diagnosis in Utah.

Broadcast tv, Internet, radio, are all available for use for Conference. If gathering in Conference Center is cancelled, I will feel sad for those who traveled for it. 

 

Think he has been released as not having it.  Will see if my husband was confused.

edited:  nope, has it, not a danger as confined at home

 https://ksltv.com/432640/st-george-man-who-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-returns-home/?

Edited March 7, 2020 by Calm

[provoman]

55 minutes ago, Calm said:

Think he has been released as not having it.  Will see if my husband was confused.

edited:  nope, has it, not a danger as confined at home

 https://ksltv.com/432640/st-george-man-who-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-returns-home/?

Thanks.

 

 

Sadly, a second person inUtah with it. The person is in Davis County

https://kutv.com/news/local/first-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-utah

 

[The Nehor]

5 hours ago, ksfisher said:

A couple of facts for perspective:

"COVID-19 has killed more than 3,000 people and infected more than 88,000 since it was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December."

"At the same time in the northern hemisphere, it’s the tail-end of flu season. So far in the US, there have been around 32 million flu illnesses and 18,000 deaths from flu, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

"Worldwide, annual flu epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, according to the WHO, and about 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths."

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/coronavirus-flu-healthcare-symptoms/

 

It sound like we should be cancelling conference every year because of the flu.

The concern is not based on the current numbers; it is based on the potential numbers. People with Coronavirus are more likely to need medical care and hospitalization. For healthy people under 60 and who are not toddlers or infants the flu passes by just enduring it. A full blown pandemic could severely tax medical resources. Part of the problem if this gets out in the United States will also be scared people consuming resources they do not need when they do not have it or the symptoms are not bad. With the internet we are already seeing misinformation which will make things worse. You can buy all kinds of things that will prevent or cure coronavirus online. I pity the naive in my youth who thought the Information Superhighway would make us more informed. I just read a story about a mom who sent her children to school wearing facemasks which are not needed for this unless you have it. She fought the school for the right to have her kids wear them. Later they found out they were useless because most of the authentic medical facemasks were gone and she bought some useless garbage on Etsy. There are two thing that could make this go very badly: complacency and panic. If it does get bad we will probably get too much of both.

[Bernard Gui]

7 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

What would be the overall effect on the LDS Church if the entire membership discontinued attending for 6 months?  And if all missions were shut down for that period as well?  For safety's sake.

Could the Church operate entirely as an online church, with webinars, email, texting, and the like?  Could it survive?

Exactly.  So, are you going to run the risk of going to church regularly?

Seattle is learning whether or not it is necessary to leave your home to go to work. Lots of places have closed down. Our Ensign Choir and Symphony concert in Benaroya Hall this weekend is cancelled. I’m so disappointed that I won’t be playing one of my top 10 all-time favorites, Rimsky-Korsakoff’s Capriccio Espagnole.* The virus is now spreading down into the Tacoma/Pierce County area where I live. To show our defiance in the face of certain death, Sister Gui, our son Talentissimo, his girlfriend, and I went out for dinner at our favorite pho place. Eat, drink, be merry. We’ll have the flu tomorrow.
 

My son Abogadissimo works for Amazon and they were sent home and instructed to work from there. Today he went back in to pick up some work items and since no one was there, he was able to stay and get a lot of work done without interruption. So, if Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing, T-Mobile, etc., all find that their workers are more productive not coming in to work, then the multi-billion dollar light rail system being forced on us will not be needed. That’s so cool!

That said, for only 7 of my 73 years have I been in a situation where I could attend Conference in person, and I think maybe I’ve turned out sort of ok. You may disagree. We will watch it here in the home, even though I really like being in the chapel with the Saints and the big screen. We definitely will go to the Priesthood session in the chapel and then indulge in the tradition begun in my youth....hamburgers and fries and root beer. it will be glorious.

I don’t recall this kind of hyper-hysterical reaction to a virus since the polio epidemic of the early 50s, and that one really was something to fear. 
 

*If you are not familiar with Capriccio Espagnole, do yourself a real favor....

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by Bernard Gui

[Robert F. Smith]

26 minutes ago, Bernard Gui said:

.......................................

I don’t recall this kind of hyper-hysterical reaction to a virus since the polio epidemic of the early 50s, and that one really was something to fear. 

I was more or less oblivious to Polio when I was a kid.  Had no idea it even existed, until one day at elementary school we all lined up and each of us got a sugar cube with the vaccine in it.  Tasted pretty good.  Can't recall now whether that was the Salk or Sabine vaccine.  It saved millions of kids from Polio.

[Calm]

1 hour ago, provoman said:

Thanks.

 

 

Sadly, a second person inUtah with it. The person is in Davis County

https://kutv.com/news/local/first-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-utah

 

There are two very surreal things happening in the world right now that seem personally connected to me that I find hard to believe isn't some tv series I am watching....the possible unfolding of a world epidemic on par with the Spanish flu and the Lori Vallow/Chad Daybell case.  I am giving my husband the most damning evidence against them and I can't help laughing because it is like a really poorly written soap opera with a cliff hanger every episode.  It is like a horror story you laugh at because it is so poorly written it is funny.