One of my countdown timers will soon expire

[Scott Lloyd]

Some here are acquainted with the fact that I have a countdown clock on my mobile device, and that occasionally, when I see someone here making a prediction, I will set a timer for the fulfillment of that prediction within the time frame given by the predictor.

In three days, one of those timers will expire, so it is now time to revisit the prediction it is tracking.

Two years ago, I started a thread called "Surge Has Subsided, But Missionary Work Continues Apace." This was my opening post:
 

Quote

 

Eleven new missions are being created (a net increase of 10), as reported in my story here.

It was foregone that there would be a surge in the missionary force following the announcement two years ago of the lowering in the ages of eligibility and that the number would drop somewhat in the wake of the surge.

What is remarkable, according to what Elder Evans told me, is that the number has not lessened nearly as much as was anticipated.

If there is to be a large-scale departure of young people from the Church over the issue of gay marriage or what-not, it's not being reflected yet in the response to the call for missionary service.

 

 

 

Later on the thread, Mike Reid posted this:

Quote

I suspect that we are still in the wake of the recent age change. In two or three more years it will fall, I suspect, unless another change is made (ie.Internet missions served from home, or a push to expand non-prosteletyzing service missions).

I subsequently asked Mike to clarify. Did he mean that the number of missionaries would fall back down to below the level it was in 2012, when the age changes were announced? He replied that he didn't know how far it would fall.

But this puzzled me, because the number had already started falling, and it was fully anticipated by the Missionary Department that it would continue to fall as the missionaries who were already serving at the time of the surge came home. The question was how large the missionary force would be once the surge was fully in the past.

As Mike was being vague and evasive, I reasoned that the statement would not be meaningful unless he meant that the number would fall back down to the level at or below what it was in October 2012, as though the age changes had had no effect on the size of the missionary force.

So I arbitrarily took the statement to mean that, and I started a two-year countdown on Mike's prediction.

So inasmuch as the clock will expire three days from now, it's time to revisit this prediction.

Prior to the announcement of the age changes, the number of LDS missionaries serving was 58,500. According to this page on Mormon Newsroom, the number at year end 2016 stood at 74,079, for a net, post-surge increase of about 15,500. So the number did not fall back down to pre-2012 levels, but rather, has had a respectable net increase, and this without having to radically redefine missionary work, as Mike suggested.

God be thanked for revelatory direction through a living prophet and for the dedication of our young men and women in the Church!

According to the Mormon Newsroom link, "Following the missionary age change in 2012 the total number peaked and then tapered as anticipated. Currently they are on a steady upward trend, but may see seasonal fluctuations."

Mike did give a time frame of "two or three more years." So let us give him a grace period of one more year for the number to descend back down to about 58,500. We'll revisit this again in a year's time to see whether that has happened..

For the record, the clock now stands at 3 days, 1 hour, 18 minutes and 10 seconds and counting down.

 

Edited January 7, 2017 by Scott Lloyd

[SteveO]

You have a timer for the ultimate demise of the church?

[Scott Lloyd]

3 minutes ago, SteveO said:

You have a timer for the ultimate demise of the church?

Heh. Not yet.

[Robert F. Smith]

On 1/6/2017 at 7:15 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

.........................................................................   

Prior to the announcement of the age changes, the number of LDS missionaries serving was 58,500. According to this page on Mormon Newsroom, the number at year end 2016 stood at 74,079, for a net, post-surge increase of about 15,500. So the number did not fall back down to pre-2012 levels, but rather, has had a respectable net increase, and this without having to radically redefine missionary work, as Mike suggested.

.............................................................................

I love your clocks, Scott.

On the question of radical redefinition of missionary work, I keep thinking of high-tech improvements in teaching the Gospel.  Instead of the old flannel boards, one might now use a laptop screen to convey the same material and info, but now with much greater variety, sound, and color.  Skype makes a face-to-face discussion possible, and missionary websites make self-selected interest to be the basis of proselyting, rather than cold calls at someone's door.

Most of humanity lives in China and the Indian subcontinent.  What will be the permutations possible in Mormonism which will appeal most to that vast throng?  We are already in India, but have we truly plumbed the depths of our own faith in order to find those aspects which will appeal most to India and Asia?  Do we realize the power and attraction of our own exotic and esoteric religion in that very different cultural context?  Certainly the belief in the eternal family is a powerful attractant, but might there be something more?

[Scott Lloyd]

4 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I love your clocks, Scott.

On the question of radical redefinition of missionary work, I keep thinking of high-tech improvements in teaching the Gospel.  Instead of the old flannel boards, one might now use a laptop screen to convey the same material and info, but now with much greater variety, sound, and color.  Skype makes a face-to-face discussion possible, and missionary websites make self-selected interest to be the basis of proselyting, rather than cold calls at someone's door.

Most of humanity lives in China and the Indian subcontinent.  What will be the permutations possible in Mormonism which will appeal most to that vast throng?  We are already in India, but have we truly plumbed the depths of our own faith in order to find those aspects which will appeal most to India and Asia?  Do we realize the power and attraction of our own exotic and esoteric religion in that very different cultural context?  Certainly the belief in the eternal family is a powerful attractant, but might there be something more?

That's the sort of radical redefinition I can get behind, not some wimpy watering down of missionary work, de-emphasizing gospel conversion in favor of some sort of new-age Peace Corps. 

Thanks for a stimulating post, Bob. 

[Duncan]

There are 3 Stakes and 4 districts in India, how cool would it be to have a Temple announced there? We have one coming here and we have 1 stake and 1 district but we don't have to travel hardly that far to the closet Temple, 6 hours away. Certaintly not as far away as Hong Kong

[Scott Lloyd]

16 minutes ago, Duncan said:

There are 3 Stakes and 4 districts in India, how cool would it be to have a Temple announced there? We have one coming here and we have 1 stake and 1 district but we don't have to travel hardly that far to the closet Temple, 6 hours away. Certaintly not as far away as Hong Kong

How many stakes will be in your new temple district? Surely more than just your own.

 

[Duncan]

Just now, Scott Lloyd said:

How many stakes will be in your new temple district? Surely more than just your own.

 

Just us and the district! hahahaha! we're perplexed too! we have in our stake 800ish endowed members but 500 ish with a current recommend, and I don't know how many in the district but apparently some North Dakota folks could come up, they might but who knows and it wouldn't be crowds of people though. There is a theory of why we are getting a Temple but who knows if it's true. With us getting one it makes for interesting times for everyone everywhere! hahahhahahha!

Edited January 8, 2017 by Duncan

[Scott Lloyd]

22 minutes ago, Duncan said:

Just us and the district! hahahaha! we're perplexed too! we have in our stake 800ish endowed members but 500 ish with a current recommend, and I don't know how many in the district but apparently some North Dakota folks could come up, they might but who knows and it wouldn't be crowds of people though

Are you sure it's just the one stake?

Even the Monticello Utah Temple, which, at the time of its dedication by President Hinckley was the prototype for the new, smaller temple design, included within in its district stakes from Moab and Blanding.

I'm not familiar with your area. Are there no other stakes between yours and neighboring temple districts?

North Dakota already has its own temple, in Bismarck.

Edited to add:

I see that, with a single ordinance room and a single sealing room and 16,100 square feet, it is a tiny temple, so maybe it will only accommodate one stake.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Scott Lloyd

[Duncan]

Just now, Scott Lloyd said:

Are you sure it's just the one stake?

Even the Monticello Utah Temple, which, at the time of its dedication by President Hinckley was the prototype for the new, smaller temple design, included within in its district stakes from Moab and Blanding.

I'm not familiar with your area. Are there no other stakes between yours and neighboring temple districts?

North Dakota already has its own temple, in Bismarck.

yup! just the one stake! we're the only game in town. The district is in Ontario and Northern Minnesota.  Bismarck is in North Dakota but people living in Grand Forks may come here as it's closer by an hour so who knows though. My province is bigger than the size of California but that state has like almost the population of Canada and we're 3 times bigger than Utah but not population

Our Temple is Regina, Sask (which has two stakes) 6 hours away and apparently we support it more than the Saskatoon Stake, but yeah, we are all of one stake and one district for this Temple!

Edited January 8, 2017 by Duncan

[cinepro]

I'm just eyeballing it, but what's interesting is that if you continue the graph from the growth rate in the 1990s, before the dip in 2001, it looks like it would grow to around 75,000.

 

 

http://roundelmike.com/2015/04/lds-mormon-church-statistics-2015/

 

[Peppermint Patty]

35 minutes ago, cinepro said:

I'm just eyeballing it, but what's interesting is that if you continue the graph from the growth rate in the 1990s, before the dip in 2001, it looks like it would grow to around 75,000.

 

 

http://roundelmike.com/2015/04/lds-mormon-church-statistics-2015/

 

This is an interesting graph. If I'm reading it right, it looks like we might have had a couple of thousand more missionaries than now if we would've left things the way they were and didn't lower the ages.

Also, I've heard although I don't know how to verify that the majority of the increase in numbers is from Sister Missionaries.  I would love to see if anyone has the information about how many Sisters are currently serving.

I've certainly seen a cultural shift in the last few years about encouraging Sisters to serve. My daughter is getting that "encouragement" right now. When I was growing up, nobody once asked me if I was ever going to serve a mission. It's completely different now with our young women.

 

[Rain]

16 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I love your clocks, Scott.

On the question of radical redefinition of missionary work, I keep thinking of high-tech improvements in teaching the Gospel.  Instead of the old flannel boards, one might now use a laptop screen to convey the same material and info, but now with much greater variety, sound, and color.  Skype makes a face-to-face discussion possible, and missionary websites make self-selected interest to be the basis of proselyting, rather than cold calls at someone's door.

Most of humanity lives in China and the Indian subcontinent.  What will be the permutations possible in Mormonism which will appeal most to that vast throng?  We are already in India, but have we truly plumbed the depths of our own faith in order to find those aspects which will appeal most to India and Asia?  Do we realize the power and attraction of our own exotic and esoteric religion in that very different cultural context?  Certainly the belief in the eternal family is a powerful attractant, but might there be something more?

My son's friend was called to the Sofia Bulgaria mission. Because of a number of things happening he has now served in 3 missions and several countries.  His dad came from Lebanon and knows Arabic.

I'm not sure which country or mission the friend was in at the time,  but he was at some point teaching a man who knew Arabic. The missionary was trying to learn it,  but things were slow going.  Anyway, with permission, he has taught this man at least once, sitting in the room with a computer and this man with his dad skyping them and translating for them.

[Atheist Mormon]

On 1/6/2017 at 8:25 PM, SteveO said:

You have a timer for the ultimate demise of the church?

Church is not going down with a Bang, it is going down with a whimper.........I don't know which one is worse......

[SteveO]

1 hour ago, Atheist Mormon said:

Church is not going down with a Bang, it is going down with a whimper.........I don't know which one is worse......

They've been saying either for the past 188 years...but keep hoping and praying for it

[Atheist Mormon]

9 minutes ago, SteveO said:

They've been saying either for the past 188 years...but keep hoping and praying for it

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Atheist Mormon

[Atheist Mormon]

Just now, Atheist Mormon said:

Never pray for anything (since it is 99.9% useless, based on my experience) nor hope for Church's demise. If anything I like the Church, Utah would be never the same without it, I consider Utah my home.

 

[JulieM]

On January 6, 2017 at 6:15 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

As Mike was being vague and evasive, I reasoned that the statement would not be meaningful unless he meant that the number would fall back down to the level at or below what it was in October 2012, as though the age changes had had no effect on the size of the missionary force.

So I arbitrarily took the statement to mean that, and I started a two-year countdown on Mike's prediction.

From what I can see, Mike's prediction (as he stated it) has been correct.

But, as you state above, you added your own meaning and changed his prediction to fit what you "arbitrarily" took it to mean.

IMO, that makes your countdown clock meaningless here since it's a countdown for your own implied prediction and not what Mike actually predicted.

CFR that Mike predicted what you state above (the prediction you're applying to him for your countdown clock).  An exact quote using his words, not yours.

Edited January 8, 2017 by JulieM

[SteveO]

10 minutes ago, Atheist Mormon said:

 

I saw an economics report that attributes Utah's incredible prosperity attributed to strong families...I'll hunt it down if you want to see it.  But it's bringing in tons of non members into the state.  I see nothing but missionary opportunity there.  Our "archaic conservative values", I suspect, will start to appeal to more people who find it harder to find moral stability.  

Despite those things, I think the future of the church lies not in the United States, but in places like Africa, Southeast  Asia, and even the Middle East.  

[cinepro]

On 1/6/2017 at 6:15 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

Mike did give a time frame of "two or three more years." So let us give him a grace period of one more year for the number to descend back down to about 58,500. We'll revisit this again in a year's time to see whether that has happened..

For the record, the clock now stands at 3 days, 1 hour, 18 minutes and 10 seconds and counting down.

 

Just so everyone is clear, Mike never said the number would go "back down to about 58,500".  That is entirely Scott's creation. 

When Scott requested a number, Mike specifically said "I don't know how far it would fall."  Scott should be embarrassed for bringing this back up as if Mike made the prediction.

 

As Peppermint Patty pointed out, it is impossible to compare the pre-age-change numbers with the post-age-change without separating the numbers of Elders and Sister missionaries.  While the shift in age for the Elders was no doubt incrementally helpful, the change for the sisters was monumental.  That is a graph that would no doubt be extremely illuminating about the long-term effects of the change.

Edited January 8, 2017 by cinepro

[Atheist Mormon]

39 minutes ago, SteveO said:

I saw an economics report that attributes Utah's incredible prosperity attributed to strong families...I'll hunt it down if you want to see it.  But it's bringing in tons of non members into the state.  I see nothing but missionary opportunity there.  Our "archaic conservative values", I suspect, will start to appeal to more people who find it harder to find moral stability.  

Despite those things, I think the future of the church lies not in the United States, but in places like Africa, Southeast  Asia, and even the Middle East.  

Sorry but your "Archaic family values" contributes greatly help to diminish average family, individual rights, such as; pro choice, sexual health care access, so on.....When you say "Missionary Opportunity" that is exactly it......"Missionary Opportunity" does not translate average human growth, if anything it saddles prospective members with numerous responsibilities as if they don't have enough of their own.

[SteveO]

6 minutes ago, Atheist Mormon said:

Sorry but your "Archaic family values" contributes greatly help to diminish average family, individual rights, such as; pro choice, sexual health care access, so on.....When you say "Missionary Opportunity" that is exactly it......"Missionary Opportunity" does not translate average human growth, if anything it saddles prospective members with numerous responsibilities as if they don't have enough of their own.

Like I said, you just keep hoping and praying for that to be the case.  

[JulieM]

38 minutes ago, cinepro said:

Just so everyone is clear, Mike never said the number would go "back down to about 58,500".  That is entirely Scott's creation. 

When Scott requested a number, Mike specifically said "I don't know how far it would fall."  Scott should be embarrassed for bringing this back up as if Mike made the prediction.

I agree.  This has been discussed on several threads and most agree that the prediction is in Scott's words (or rewording), not Mike's.  

Does Mike even know about this ridiculous countdown clock on a prediction he didn't make?  And, if he knows about it, does he even care?

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by JulieM

[JAHS]

On 1/6/2017 at 6:15 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

Prior to the announcement of the age changes, the number of LDS missionaries serving was 58,500. According to this page on Mormon Newsroom, the number at year end 2016 stood at 74,079,

Actually that number is at year end of 2015 as stated in the May 2016 conference report
https://www.lds.org/ensign/2016/05/saturday-afternoon-session/statistical-report-2015?lang=eng

We will need to wait until April Conference to get the 2016 numbers.

 

[Atheist Mormon]

37 minutes ago, SteveO said:

Like I said, you just keep hoping and praying for that to be the case.  

It is the case SteveO, you just don't want to acknowledge. I mean who would want to accept Jesus or God in their lives when they have been inert all their lives long, not only that,  thousands years long......Just No-Show......