This conclusion involves too much mind reading, of which neither you nor the Church are capable. There is another aspect of this same logic that I believe is true, but I cannot verify because it also involves thought discernment at which I am particularly bad. It goes like this:
Some or all of the various reasons for leaving the Church that Smac and Robert have enumerated are often masked by individuals behind the "Church-lied-to-me" or other similar facade. This can be the complaint that is voiced when in reality the individual left the Church because Sister Fishbreath pissed him off or the demands of Church membership just became too much of a burden/hindrance to a desired life style.
To be sure, this is a good technique, because if I push back against the argument, I am accused of being judgemental because I in no way can read the mind or know the heart of the offended party and I'm therefore branded as "hating the victim" and am effectively silenced.
My sense is that this happens fairly often. But of course I can't say for sure.
And neither can the Church.