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pogi

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Everything posted by pogi

  1. Give me a break. This is desperate. He was talking about the recent media portrayals of "police brutality" and "systemic discrimination" that has triggered the protests. And this from President Nelson, calling for an end to "systemic racism", as reported by your own Deseret News:
  2. Like it or not, he said it was "systemic". He was commenting that racism is still evident, even in recent history as evidenced by "systemic discrimination". He didn't say "occasional incidents" (those are your words), he said "systemic discrimination". He even went as far as to say that racism is evident on the "official" (not just personal) level.
  3. Actually, they did what they did for the sole purpose of serving the public. You can retreat and hide from that fact all you want, you may disagree with the measures but it was done from a public health perspective. It was not done with the purpose and intent of them getting paid to do nothing. That is slanderous.
  4. In no way am I accusing him of this motivation, but leaving the church and appealing to a larger Christian audience is probably the best career move he could make.
  5. Thank you very much for your thoughtful replies. Your love for the church is evident in your passionate repudiation of the pope. I knew that more traditional Catholics were not terribly happy with Pope Francis, but I was unaware of just how visceral the divide is.
  6. President Oaks addresses the reality of systemic racism in his talk, actually:
  7. That seems pretty high. Do you have a reference for this? How did you come to that figure?
  8. Why would they have something to say about it? Do you have any examples of this? It looks like around 33.6% of public workers are unionized. Probably MUCH lower than that in Utah, however. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2.nr0.htm
  9. From reading the comments in his post, and his responses to them, it is pretty clear that he is leaving the church. I agree that denouncing is too harsh a term for his transition however.
  10. I don't know what you are talking about. This is what I am responding to - this was your last and most up-to-date estimate, and how you derived that number: We have a pretty dang good idea that they are not, however. It is incredibly unlikely that deaths from heart disease or other causes are dramatically higher (by the hundreds of thousands in one single year) when they are fairly consistent over time. I am not hyping the death rate. I am simply reporting what the CDC is stating. I am listening to the best estimates by the best professionals we have on the job who are assessing and compiling all the data and using the best algorithms to determine their numbers. You are pulling numbers out of your hat (4,600,000). There is REASON for their numbers. You have NO REASON for your numbers. You just make crap up with no rational foundation whatsoever. I have never once stated a problem with the worldwide 10% figure. That is not my problem. My problem is the figure you are dividing it by.
  11. As a whole, they are not lazy either. I would suggest that most want to work. Most are afraid of losing their jobs right now. That is not a contrast. That is happening in the public sector as well. As I already noted, as of July 1.5 million government workers are out of a job since the beginning of the pandemic. Numbers are likely much higher by now. None of your comment addresses your claim that government workers are implementing lock-downs so that they can get paid to not work. That is a serious claim! Back it up. Who is it exactly that has authority to instigate lock-downs? Prove to me that that person is not working, is not completely stressed out, is not desperate to get the economy back on track and to get his employees working again. Prove to me that they are doing this all to coast on the gravy train and get paid. Where is your evidence? Where is the gravy train for these decision makers? Shutting down the economy so they don't have to work as hard in their personal job? Get real!
  12. Once again, you are trying to manipulate the numbers by calculating the estimated infections by reported deaths. This is the problem I have had with your original calculation, and now you are attempting to do it again. Get real. That is not how you calculate the CFR or the IFR. That is wrong. I thought you were going to assume that the deaths were underreported? Why aren't you doing so here? I will also point out that I am being VERY generous by assuming that 10% of the US population has been infected. We have much better testing here than anywhere else in the developing world where most of the world population is, so I think we are not close to 10% yet. That is not always why they are not testing. If you don't know already, I am a nurse involved in the Utah Covid response doing contact tracing. I can't tell you how many people don't test just because they assume they have it, even though they have more serious symptoms like shortness of breath, chest pain, dizziness, and confusion. These are people that probably should be in the hospital, but they won't even get themselves to test! I speak with them all the time. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm That is not determined by the CDC. That is determined by the death certificate. Death counts are always fluctuating. It depends on how the state reports it, and I think it differs slightly for each state. Initially, the person may be reported as a Covid death if they die for any reason and have Covid, depending on which state they live in (this is the case with all infectious diseases including the flu - it is a quick picture for decision makers that need fast information when processing death certificates can take months.) Once the death certificate is processed and it is determined that the death was caused by heart attack, or suicide, or something else, that case is removed from the Covid death count. It is not the CDC who defines how a person died, it is the coroners and physicians attending to the patient at the time of death. They are the ones who write the death certificate. Once it is processed, then the numbers change. Cause of death is ultimately based on the best medical judgment of the attending physician or coroner. It is no different than it ever has been for any death from any disease or cause. It is as accurate as anything else.
  13. Lets focus on US numbers since that is where we live. Based on reported infections and reported deaths in the US, the ratio is 2.6% Somehow I think your "generous" 0.6% is not that generous after all. Lets look at the numbers in the US a little closer. Total reported infections: 8,617,022 Total reported deaths: 224,601 Total US population: 328.2 million If we are going to assume that 10% of the US population has been infected, that would put the total infections in the US at 32.8 million. If we multiply that by 0.6% (which you assume) fatality rate, that would give us a total of 196,920 deaths. That is lower then even the reported deaths from Covid (224,601) in the US so far - which "for the sake of harmony" you point out could be "understated". If they are understated, then 0.6% CANNOT be the actual fatality rate. I therefore reject your 0.6% fatality rate. That is not possible. The numbers simply don't add up if we are assuming 10% of population is infected with a 0.6% fatality rate. If 32.8 million people have been infected in the US, that means that 24.2 million infections are unaccounted for. Even if we assume a low 0.6% death rate, then that would mean around 145,200 (24.2 M X 0.6%) of those unreported infections are also unreported deaths. If we add 145,200 (which happens to closely coincide with the CDC estimates that there are 198,081 unreported deaths from Covid in US) to the already reported 224,601 deaths, we get 369,801 total deaths in the US. To get the IFR for the US we would divide the 32.8 million total infected by the 369,801 total deaths and get an IFR of 1.12% Again, we came to this figure using a low 0.6% death rate for the 24.2 Million undercounted infections. If we use the 1.12% figure, the total deaths and IFR would be even higher. The important figure out of all of this is 369,801 total deaths. If we are using CDC estimates, they place the total US death count at 422,682 (reported deaths, 224,601 + unreported deaths, 198,081). That is nearly half a million dead in the US in under 1 year.
  14. The difference is that I framed my statement as MY estimate and assumption based on imperfect data. You framed your statement as fact, without reference. I haven't broken any board rules...you did when you failed to provide a reference or retract when asked to. Let me get this straight though, you insist that the survival rate is 99.9%. You refuse to provide a reference for it, and you refuse to retract your comment, yet here you seem to suggest that "one cannot really say what the real percentage is". Seems ironic. How can you say that I am "hyping" the numbers when you are the one dividing reported deaths by estimated cases to manipulate and deflate the numbers in a way that doesn't represent the CFR or the IFR? I have not even attempted to calculate an IFR. I have only provided the CFR which is based on reported deaths and reported cases. What is wrong with my calculation? Yes, lets look at the science! Show me any science that backs up your claim of 99.9%. Lets be honest here Robert, you are manipulating numbers to make it seems as if it is not as serious as it really is. That is not how you calculate IFR. Just admit it so we can move on.
  15. Can you post a link for context and explanation?
  16. It is sad when adults can't follow simple board guidelines that they agreed to upon registering, isn't it? Not the shining example of personal integrity. I have reported you for failing to answer the CFR and failing to retract your comment.
  17. Honestly, it is society (and politicians) who is letting the government public health workers down, right now; and in turn, letting society down by shooting themselves in the foot. You have not disputed that over 1.5 million of them have been laid off. That doesn't sound like the gravy train to me. Keep in mind the actual government workers who make the decisions about lock downs are not riding any gravy train either. They are more stressed than anybody right now. That is quite the conspiracy you have concocted. Local governments shut down business, claiming to protect the public from a pandemic, but really, they don't care about the health of the public, or their economic well-being, they just want an easy job. They are willing to sink the economy in the name of public health for the sole purpose of having an easy job. That is really what your claim boils down too. I think that is out-of-line smearing and unfounded accusations against good working people.
  18. And who said anything about "suffering" from wearing a mask? It makes me more then a little upset that people won't wear a mask unless "forced" because wearing a mask is "suffering", when those who are truly suffering are in the ICU Covid unit at any one of the over-burdened hospitals in Utah right now. Patients and nurses alike. And he accuses me of being hysterical. He is being hysterical about the burden of wearing a simple face covering while Utah hospitals are at the point of rationing care.
  19. I don't have an estimated death count. I am not the one making ridiculous/misleading/downplaying/unsubstantiated/unsupported by any health institutions, claims about 99.9% survival rate. You state that we would have to multiply the reported deaths by a factor of 7 in order to get an IFR over 1%. True. We would also have to multiply the reported infections (43 million) by a factor of 18 in order to get to 10% of the population (759 Million). I don't see it as unreasonable to assume that if infections are underreported by a factor of 18 that deaths could be underreported by at least a factor of 7. If we are undercounting infections by 716 MILLION cases (only 43 million reported) worldwide, how unreasonable is it to assume that at least 1% of those unreported infections died from it? Especially considering that 2.7% of reported cases have died from it! I think that is a fairly conservative estimate, honestly. If people are dying from it in Sudan or North Korea, how would we know if they aren't even testing? You wouldn't. I think our best estimate, for now, is the CFR (reported cases/ reported deaths). Everything else is largely just guess work. Can you at least admit that your calculation is not likely even close to accurate? In the US alone we are currently at nearly 300,000 excess deaths in the US for 2020. The CDC states that 66% of those are attributed to Covid. That is 198,000 under-reported deaths in the US alone! That is under-reported deaths by a factor of nearly 2 (and that is in the US where we have better reporting and testing then most!) Think of West Africa, China, India, etc.! Here is my source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm Where is your source?
  20. Perhaps it is best appreciated by those who practice mindfulness and meditation. It is the most beautiful piece of music I have ever heard!
  21. That is crazy. Good job Colorado! You are doing something right there.
  22. So, that is not your position? What is your source?
  23. Because a hurting economy, job loss, etc. is great for government tax revenue, right? You don't know what you are talking about. Come work in the health department and look at all the lazy government workers doing "nothing". We are exhausted! We are all working crazy over-time and have very little to no work/life balance right now. Most are trying to do their normal government jobs AND are involved in the Covid response on top of what they normally do. We are all burned out. We are also scared for our jobs. We know that funding is gone and layoffs are coming. No department of the government will be unscathed. That means reduced services for the community. Everyone in government is hurting and scared right now. And that was written back in early JUNE!
  24. If they were infectious diseases it would warrant taking some of these measures. I would argue that it is the resistance against quarantine, masks, and lockdowns that are responsible for most of the collateral damage from Covid. Our current national plan (or lack thereof) simply isn't working to keep Covid in check, or protect against collateral damage. We see the worst from both worlds! It's a disaster. When we work together as a nation in solidarity against the virus...we win. We could have avoided most of the collateral damage if we had a good leader and cooperative citizens. Just look at Taiwan and South Korea, they have single digit deaths/day. They don't have severe lockdowns. They are "workiing, living, succeeding". Here is a great article about it: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/getting-healthy-now/202004/defending-the-right-infect #Covidsucks!
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