Peppermint Patty

13 minutes ago, Thinking said:

If we accept a mean generation length of 35 years and recognize that nearly all generation lengths would be between 15 and 55 years, using the 68-95-99.7 rule, the standard deviation of the generation length would be about 6.67. This assumes the distribution is approximately normal, which is reasonable.

The probability that a sample of 19 generations would have a mean generation length that far above 35 would be

P(z > (50-35)/(6.67/sqrt19)) = P(z > 9.8) = 5.6x10^-23 or 0.000000000000000000000056

So, you're saying there could still be a chance?

I found this article that's relevant to life expectancy. A team of over 50 researchers studied approximately 12500 (more than half pre-Columbian) skeletal remains from 65 sites in North and South America going back thousands of years. They found that the average life expectancy was around 35 years. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/29/science/don-t-blame-columbus-for-all-the-indians-ills.html?pagewanted=all

1 hour ago, cinepro said:

I guess I'm a little confused about how you define the term.  When John Dehlin (an ex-LDS gadfly who, as far as I can tell, has never made a claim of divine inspiration) made a prediction about what the Church may or may not do in the next 40 years, you described it as a "prophesy", and felt like the claim was so important and well-defined that it should be tracked in a public and precise manner (including with a follow up thread).

But when a man who does publicly proclaim himself to be a "Prophet, seer and revelator" makes a prediction about the future, that is neither a "prophesy" nor worthy of tracking with the constant reminder of a countdown clock.

I guess that mike seem consistent and logical to some people, but I'm just not seeing why the former would merit so much more attention than the latter. 

I agree. That does seem a little inconsistent.

Scott, I hope you respond. I would like to see some clarification.  Thanks

9 hours ago, Five Solas said:

Women make up ~ half the population, so the result of the change should be very large and sustained (not merely a temporary "surge" attributable to 18 year-old men signing up).  I'm not saying it should have exactly doubled, since there were some women serving already.  But certainly more than 29%.

--Erik

 

Erik,

Actually women now make up over 60% of the church membership. If this trend continues, it won't be long until we make up 70%

Blair, I'm very thankful for this book. It was just what I needed at this time in my life. Please thank everyone at the Maxwell Institute who was involved with this project.

I think one's opinon of it probably hinges on whether the person who cooks it knows what he's doing.  Whenever I've had it, the people cooking it have known what they're doing.

It certainly depends on how mutton is cooked. If cooked right, it can be one of the best tasting meats. If cooked poorly, it can taste gamey and be very tough. 

Thanks for the quick responses!

My sister-in-law just emailed me three different second hand accounts of dog sacrifice and Joseph Smith.  I've never heard anything like this before and it sure feels like some made up anti-Mormon accusations to me.

Can someone with more light and knowledge help me out on this?  Is this real or bogus? Have these accounts been debunked before?

-In the time of their digging for money and not finding it attainable, Joe Smith told them there was a charm on the pots of money, and if some animal was killed and the blood sprinkled around the place, then they could get it. So they killed a dog, and tried this method of obtaining the precious metal; but again money was scarce in those diggings. Still, they dug and dug, but never came to the precious treasure. Alas! how vivid was the expectation when the blood of poor Tray was used to take off the charm, and after all to find their mistake. Emily Coburn, in Emily M. Austin, Mormonism; or, Life Among the Mormons, 1882, pp. 32-33

-Hiel Lewis affirmed that Smith translated the Book of Mormon by means of the same enchanting spirit that directed Smith to make dog sacrifices. Dr. Quinn wrote, "A cousin of Smith's wife Emma reported that Smith 'translated the book of Mormon by means of the same peep stone, and under the same inspiration that directed his enchantments and dog sacrifices; it was all by the same spirit' (H. Lewis 1879)" (Quinn, 1987 edition, p. 144).

-Justice Joel King Noble, who tried Smith in an 1830 trial in Colesville, N.Y., related in a letter that when Joe Smith and others were digging "for a Chest of money," they acquired a black dog and offered it as "a sacrafise [blo]od Sprinkled prayer made at the time (no money obtained) the above Sworn to on trial. . . ." (Letter of Justice Noble, dated March 8, 1842, photographically reproduced in Walters, "Joseph Smith's Bainbridge, N.Y., Court Trials," p. 134).

JK, I've seen a lot fear in people too. My sister being one. She literally is counting the days for the Savior's return and organizing her food storage and stocking up on ammunition.

 We live in great times. No other time in the history of the world have we had more opportunity, better healthcare, more freedom and more blessings. We should be the happiest people on earth, not fearful and certainly not in despair.

There have been numerous studies and all have shown dowsing does not work: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dowsing

In fact there is a 1million dollar prize for anyone who can show dowsing works better than chance. So far, the challenge remains.

I will add that one of the strongest data based indicators that I have seen against the church being stronger than ever is the steady climb of members per stake or members per ward. This number has increased every year since 1998. This could be due to an intentional change about the ideal unit size, but the gradual nature and longevity of the trend seem to point against this. (in 1998, 408 members per ward/branch compared to 519 in 2015).

Could it also be those numbers go up when the number of active members go down?

If the statistics that were given today in General Conference can be trusted, the Church grew at the slowest rate since 1974.  This, despite the huge increase in missionaries.

 

As Cinepro just said, I think Elder Cook has a much different definition of "stronger" than I do.

I guess I spoke too soon. It looks like the Church actually grew at the slowest rate since 1946:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints_membership_history#Table_for_LDS_Church_membership_numbers

Even though we have more missionaries than at any other time, more media coverage through the internet, radio, television, and more PR we were still unable to grow much past the birth rate this year.  I hope this is an anomaly year.

ETA: look at the growth rate we had in 1830!  Wow!

I wish Elder Cook had provided a bit more information (such as numbers) rather than just giving unsupported assertions. I will grant his statement of broad assertions without details seemed very lawyer-esque (I'm a lawyer too), but I don't think that's a good thing in this context.  In most (maybe all?) areas of life, I've found details to be useful.  Wish we had more here.

If the statistics that were given today in General Conference can be trusted, the Church grew at the slowest rate since 1974.  This, despite the huge increase in missionaries.

As Cinepro just said, I think Elder Cook has a much different definition of "stronger" than I do.

mormonnewb,

I've always enjoyed your posts here. I hope you continue to visit now and then. I wish you and your family nothing but the best.

This whole thing is sad to me for several reasons. One of my best friends in my Ward left with her family a couple of months ago. She still won't talk to me about the reasons.

Why do so many leave? If statistics can be believed over 60% of our members leave at some point.

This baffles me to no end. We need to do a better job finding out the reasons and reaching out.

Merry Smithmas everyone!

He said Western New York, but your point is well taken, Patty.  And Elder Petersen surely believed what he said.  So that settles it, right?  Is this the official, final word?  And so now we can all go home, having been set straight.    

It's strange, but it appears there are some misinformed people in the Church who actually believe that when an Apostle makes a definitive statement on something in General Conference that it's doctrine, or at the very least trumps what other individuals have said on the same issue.

Further, there seems to be some mistaken members who feel that what's spoken at General Conference by our leaders is directly guided by the Spirit: 

https://twitter.com/OaksDallinH

Finally, this isn't the only statement made at General Conference by our leaders confirming the Hill Cumorah in New York is indeed the place where the last battle in the Book of Mormon took place. I'm certainly open to changing my position if you can show me similar statements by our Apostles at General Conference contradicting the above.

Here's a very clear and definite statement made by an Apostle in General Conference that the final battle in the Book of Mormon took place in the Western U.S. at what we now know is the Hill Cumorah:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=q72XpbrZi3E#t=85

Bears.

Bob,

I agree with you about the Matheny article. It's a very thorough critique and she does make a very compelling case.

Hey at least the new MI is outproducing Interpreter by one metric:

http://approachingjustice.net/2014/08/05/byu-idaho-religion-instructor-leaves-church/

Really?

http://publications.maxwellinstitute.byu.edu/publications/review/11/1/S00009-51b759ace7b399McGregor.pdf

 

In the next month or so we will have another METI translation, a CPART translation, and about 2 or 3 other book titles published by the end of the year, including a fantastic book comparing Mormonism's 3 Nephites to similar messianic figures in Buddhism and Islam.

I am really looking forward to this book. 

Thanks Blair! It looks like the couple of internet rumors that the Maxwell Institute is dying have been greatly exaggerated.

Thanks for the update. It sounds like you've been very busy.

Zakusaka,

Do we even know what alien DNA looks like? Without knowing what the alien starchild's DNA was like, how do we even test for its presence? And even if we knew what the alien starchild's DNA haplotype was, is there any reason to expect it to have survived, if there was just one alien starchild on a continent of millions in 600 B.C.?

Sorry, I just couldn't resist.  

I'm very excited to be attending the conference this year, it will be my first.

Some of these posts sadden me. I thought after Uchdorf's talk, people had moved on from labeling ex-Mormons as evil, or as having left the church to sin. If the results of this poll are to be believed the majority of us have family members who have left. Far from being evil apostates and sinners, these people are our husbands, wives, sons, daughters and parents.

It's hard to falsely demonize someone when they are beloved members of your family. Looking forward to meeting several people here. 

A recent blog on Fairmormon title "These are our Sisters" calls for a more respectful dialogue with our Sisters in the Ordain Women group.

 

This was an excellent article.  Thanks Cal and Juliann!