Peppermint Patty Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 If this is true then the missionary numbers are still continuing to decline. Are these numbers accurate? Quote The church has 63,597 missionaries serving in 407 missions around the globe. https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900029014/update-crashes-missionary-phone-apps-in-a-third-of-latter-day-saint-missions.html Link to comment
Gray Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Almost down to pre-surge numbers now. 1 Link to comment
Popular Post smac97 Posted August 23, 2018 Popular Post Share Posted August 23, 2018 I'm feeling fairly sanguine about the number of missionaries. There are a lot of factors in play, some of them are probably pretty good. I think it is healthy for the Church to have "raised the bar," as this decreases the number of missionaries with emotional / physical / mental health / behavioral issues. Full-time missionary service is a rigorous, difficult thing. People who are, for reasons beyond their control, unable to serve (mental health issues, for example) should not feel lessened because of that. People who are, for reasons within their control (unresolved moral issues, immaturity, lack of desire, etc.) who are unwilling to serve should not be pressed into it because of familial expectations or whatnot. In the past, people falling into these categories would have been more likely to serve. Now they are less likely. That means fewer numbers of missionaries. Also, the world is changing. And the Church needs time to adjust to these changes. We'll get there, I think. Thanks, -Smac 6 Link to comment
rockpond Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 26 minutes ago, Peppermint Patty said: If this is true then the missionary numbers are still continuing to decline. Are these numbers accurate? https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900029014/update-crashes-missionary-phone-apps-in-a-third-of-latter-day-saint-missions.html Makes sense given the trends we're seeing among millenials. 4 Link to comment
Peppermint Patty Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Gray said: Almost down to pre-surge numbers now. Gray, do you know what the pre-surge numbers were? Link to comment
Peppermint Patty Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 hour ago, smac97 said: I'm feeling fairly sanguine about the number of missionaries. There are a lot of factors in play, some of them are probably pretty good. I think it is healthy for the Church to have "raised the bar," as this decreases the number of missionaries with emotional / physical / mental health / behavioral issues. Full-time missionary service is a rigorous, difficult thing. Thanks, -Smac I agree that raising the bar is a good thing. I would rather see missionaries serve who are mature enough mentally and spiritually. We've seen too many missionaries in our Ward and Stake come home early the last few years and I worry about what that means for their future. Many of those missionaries who returned home early have been struggling with activity and feeling loved or welcomed. 3 Link to comment
ALarson Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Gray said: Almost down to pre-surge numbers now. Wow. That Mike Reid fellow really knew what he was talking about 4 Link to comment
Popular Post jkwilliams Posted August 23, 2018 Popular Post Share Posted August 23, 2018 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Peppermint Patty said: Gray, do you know what the pre-surge numbers were? According to the 2012 statistical report: 58,990. It would be interesting to see the breakdown by gender. My guess is that most of the increase in missionaries is a result of more sisters serving. But that's just a guess. Edited August 23, 2018 by jkwilliams 5 Link to comment
Popular Post cacheman Posted August 23, 2018 Popular Post Share Posted August 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Gray said: Almost down to pre-surge numbers now. As a percentage of membership, it appears to be lower than pre-surge. 7 Link to comment
churchistrue Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, jkwilliams said: According to the 2012 statistical report: 58,990. It would be interesting to see the breakdown by gender. My guess is that most of the increase in missionaries is a result of more sisters serving. But that's just a guess. Yeah. I bet sisters up, elders down. 3 Link to comment
jkwilliams Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 minute ago, churchistrue said: Yeah. I bet sisters up, elders down. Maybe adding all that space to the MTC was a little premature. 1 Link to comment
cinepro Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 (edited) 59 minutes ago, jkwilliams said: Maybe adding all that space to the MTC was a little premature. Or maybe they know something we don't about the rising generation...? It's really beautiful inside though... Edited August 23, 2018 by cinepro 3 Link to comment
Duncan Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Just now, cinepro said: Or maybe they know something we don't about the rising generation...? It's really beautiful inside though... That's in the MTC? it looks like a Museum of Modern Art or something 2 Link to comment
stemelbow Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 This is quite a drop. I figured it’d continue to go down even though the church continued to message the number would go up. Either they have no idea how numbers work, they lied, or people have been leaving tge church at an increased rate. It could be a little of all three of course. Also the whole benefit of the surge was that more young women were going. Considering the church had far less members 6 years ago, and the numbet of sisters have increased its quite likely the revelatory surge effort has in the long run caused less male youngsters from participating. Certainly less young men as a percentage of the whole at the very least. At least we can be more certain elder Holland’s claim of seeing 100,000 was about as laughable as any old church leader claim. Link to comment
Peppermint Patty Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, jkwilliams said: According to the 2012 statistical report: 58,990. It would be interesting to see the breakdown by gender. My guess is that most of the increase in missionaries is a result of more sisters serving. But that's just a guess. That means that today there are only 4,607 more missionaries than there were in 2012 (63,597 - 58,990 = 4,607)? If this trend continues, there is a very good statistical chance that by the beginning of next year there will be fewer missionaries than we had in 2012. The young men need a good swift kick in the rear. Edited August 23, 2018 by Peppermint Patty 3 Link to comment
jkwilliams Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Just now, Peppermint Patty said: That means that today there are only 4,607 more missionaries today than there were in 2012 (63,597 - 58,990 = 4,607)? If this trend continues, there is a very good statistical chance that by the beginning of next year there will be fewer missionaries than we had in 2012. The young men need a good swift kick in the rear. I'm curious: does the total number include older couple missionaries? I assume so, but I don't know. From what I understand, the rate of missionaries going home early is much higher than it was before the age change. Does this decline represent a decline in new missionaries entering the field, an increase of missionaries going home early, or a combination of both? 4 Link to comment
Peppermint Patty Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Just now, jkwilliams said: I'm curious: does the total number include older couple missionaries? I assume so, but I don't know. From what I understand, the rate of missionaries going home early is much higher than it was before the age change. Does this decline represent a decline in new missionaries entering the field, an increase of missionaries going home early, or a combination of both? I believe it includes all full time missionaries. I wonder if the young men don't feel as much pressure or feel a mission isn't as important because more women are now serving? Could the policy have hurt the number of young men willing to serve? I wish I knew why this was happening. Link to comment
ksfisher Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, Duncan said: That's in the MTC? it looks like a Museum of Modern Art or something It's not the MTC. Link to comment
jkwilliams Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 minute ago, ksfisher said: It's not the MTC. Yes, it is. Link to comment
ksfisher Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Just now, jkwilliams said: Yes, it is. Clarification. The picture showing the outside of a building the Cinepro posted is the MTC. The interior picture is not. 2 Link to comment
Popular Post jkwilliams Posted August 23, 2018 Popular Post Share Posted August 23, 2018 The second photo is of a Scientology center. Darn you, cinepro! 7 Link to comment
Peppermint Patty Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 minute ago, jkwilliams said: The second photo is of a Scientology center. Darn you, cinepro! That makes sense. I was trying to figure out how any of those statues related to the Gospel or Church History. I couldn't for the life of me figure out any of them. Ha! 4 Link to comment
cinepro Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, jkwilliams said: The second photo is of a Scientology center. Darn you, cinepro! 2 Link to comment
jkwilliams Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Just now, cinepro said: Darn you to heck! 1 Link to comment
clarkgoble Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Peppermint Patty said: Gray, do you know what the pre-surge numbers were? Depends a little bit upon what year you count. There was an initial drop around 2003 when Hinckley put tighter requirements on missionaries. Numbers went from 61,638 to 56,237 and then 51,067 by 2004. Numbers varied a little and most see 2010 as the last year of that era with 52,225. In 2011 you start to have an increase to 55,410 and then 2012 is generally seen as the beginning of the surge with 58,990 and then 83,035 the next year. Clearly though even if 2013 is the real surge year something changed back in 2011 in the numbers. I should note that I've been told by people who had baptism and activity numbers that there was around that time also a rather large cohort of kids. So the increased numbers wasn't all the surge but was partially due to a demographic "bump" as well. The peak was 2014 with 85,137 and it's been dropping fairly consistently since then. How much of that is demographics and how much reflects other changes I can't say. 4 Link to comment
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