Thinking Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 (edited) Since 2008 I have been tracking the LDS membership numbers in 20 selected areas. I have attached the pdf file. Some interesting numbers from this year. Worldwide M/C is up 4 from last year. California's membership decreased by 4,212 and the number of congregations decreased by 42. Alberta, South Africa, Ghana, American Samoa, Samoa, Hawaii, and Michigan each had a decrease in M/C. LDS Church Membership 2008-2017.pdf Edited June 20, 2018 by Thinking 1 Link to comment
Calm Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 (edited) M/C? Members/children? Mission/congregation more likely edited: should have just clicked...members/congregations... Edited June 20, 2018 by Calm Link to comment
Thinking Posted June 20, 2018 Author Share Posted June 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, Calm said: M/C? Members/children? Mission/congregation more likely edited: should have just clicked...members/congregations... You have to occasionally make a mistake to avoid translation so you can participate on this board. 3 Link to comment
Popular Post Robert F. Smith Posted June 20, 2018 Popular Post Share Posted June 20, 2018 Like any good bodhisattva, Calm is sticking around for awhile out of compassion for the rest of us. 5 Link to comment
Robert F. Smith Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 9 hours ago, Thinking said: Since 2008 I have been tracking the LDS membership numbers in 20 selected areas. I have attached the pdf file. Some interesting numbers from this year. Worldwide M/C is up 4 from last year. California's membership decreased by 4,212 and the number of congregations decreased by 42. Alberta, South Africa, Ghana, American Samoa, Samoa, Hawaii, and Michigan each had a decrease in M/C. LDS Church Membership 2008-2017.pdf What was the basis of your selection of those particular areas (states, countries)? Random, scientific sampling? Hit and miss? I would like to see these figures graphed. The decreases in some cases are too small to be statistically significant. In the case of Utah, which is growing quickly in population, St George, Utah, is the fastest growing metropolitan area in America. -- while California is experiencing a strong out-migration. The demographics need to be looked at far more comprehensively. 4 Link to comment
hope_for_things Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said: What was the basis of your selection of those particular areas (states, countries)? Random, scientific sampling? Hit and miss? I would like to see these figures graphed. The decreases in some cases are too small to be statistically significant. In the case of Utah, which is growing quickly in population, St George, Utah, is the fastest growing metropolitan area in America. -- while California is experiencing a strong out-migration. The demographics need to be looked at far more comprehensively. I too would like to see this data in a graphical format, that could really help to see the trends. For California, why do you say its experiencing a strong out-migration? I did a couple google searches on historical population data and I'm not seeing that same trend. The growth seems to have slowed somewhat in recent years, but there isn't an out-migration. Unless you're talking about Mormons specifically migrating out of California. If so, do you have any other data to support that idea? https://www.statista.com/statistics/206097/resident-population-in-california/ 1 Link to comment
hope_for_things Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 12 hours ago, Thinking said: Since 2008 I have been tracking the LDS membership numbers in 20 selected areas. I have attached the pdf file. Some interesting numbers from this year. Worldwide M/C is up 4 from last year. California's membership decreased by 4,212 and the number of congregations decreased by 42. Alberta, South Africa, Ghana, American Samoa, Samoa, Hawaii, and Michigan each had a decrease in M/C. LDS Church Membership 2008-2017.pdf I'm wondering why the California M/C is so much higher than the Utah M/C. Utah at around 400, and California in the high 500s and hitting 600 on the most recent year. Since I'm assuming congregation sizes are managed based on activity rates, what do you think this means? If we assumed that the average number of active members per congregation in Utah and California is 200 people. then could we also deduce from this data that in Utah there are 200 active people for every 400 members of record, but in California there would be 600 members of record for that same 200 active members? This would essentially mean that California members are significantly less active participants than their Utah counter parts. Thoughts? Link to comment
Okrahomer Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, hope_for_things said: I too would like to see this data in a graphical format, that could really help to see the trends. For California, why do you say its experiencing a strong out-migration? I did a couple google searches on historical population data and I'm not seeing that same trend. The growth seems to have slowed somewhat in recent years, but there isn't an out-migration. Unless you're talking about Mormons specifically migrating out of California. If so, do you have any other data to support that idea? My LDS Ward here in northern Utah County is full of recently "out-migrated" Californians; although, the population growth in Utah seems to come from everywhere--i.e., our direct next-door neighbors are from Virginia (LDS) and Georgia (non-LDS) respectively; and from Texas and California directly across the street. But according to this analysis California would be seeing a decline in population were it not for international immigration: "Over the past 20 years, California has experienced its slowest rates of growth ever recorded and an unprecedented migration of residents to other states. From 2006 to 2016, California’s population grew by 9%, which was low for the state and barely higher than the rest of the nation (8%). International migration to California has remained strong over the past 10 years: the state experienced a net inflow of 1.6 million. But about 1.2 million more people left California for other states than came to California from other states. Natural increase—more births than deaths—added 2.8 million residents. Overall, California gained 3.1 million residents over the past 10 years. 4 Link to comment
hope_for_things Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 12 hours ago, Thinking said: Since 2008 I have been tracking the LDS membership numbers in 20 selected areas. I have attached the pdf file. Some interesting numbers from this year. Worldwide M/C is up 4 from last year. California's membership decreased by 4,212 and the number of congregations decreased by 42. Alberta, South Africa, Ghana, American Samoa, Samoa, Hawaii, and Michigan each had a decrease in M/C. LDS Church Membership 2008-2017.pdf Just another interesting observation about a couple foreign countries. I think we've all heard about the low activity rates in central and south America. Looking at the 10 years of data you have for Mexico and Peru is interesting. M/C in Mexico in 2008 went from 586 to 722 over 10 years. Peru went from 616 to 790. So pretty significant increases in M/C in both countries. Yet the total Congregations for both countries was pretty flat. I sure do wish the church would report its active membership numbers. The way they count members is so flawed, we can't get clear picture of the health of the church from an active participant perspective. But there are hints in your data. I think with Mexico and Peru, they likely not only have declining activity rates, but that the church has been trying to boost the size of Congregations when it comes to activity by limiting new congregations and consolidating old ones. I just wonder how significantly the activity rates have declined in the last 10 years in those countries, and I don't think we can know exactly without more data. 1 Link to comment
hope_for_things Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Okrahomer said: My LDS Ward here in northern Utah County is full of recently "out-migrated" Californians; although, the population growth in Utah seems to come from everywhere--i.e., our direct next-door neighbors are from Virginia (LDS) and Georgia (non-LDS) respectively; and from Texas and California directly across the street. But according to this analysis California would be seeing a decline in population were it not for international immigration: "Over the past 20 years, California has experienced its slowest rates of growth ever recorded and an unprecedented migration of residents to other states. From 2006 to 2016, California’s population grew by 9%, which was low for the state and barely higher than the rest of the nation (8%). International migration to California has remained strong over the past 10 years: the state experienced a net inflow of 1.6 million. But about 1.2 million more people left California for other states than came to California from other states. Natural increase—more births than deaths—added 2.8 million residents. Overall, California gained 3.1 million residents over the past 10 years. Thanks for sharing, this is interesting data. So with California still increasing in total population, due to international in-migration, I wonder if that means those international residents as a percentage are less likely to be Mormon. Where existing residents leaving California as a % are more likely to be Mormon, so that could help to explain why LDS populations are decreasing in California, because of the demographics of who's leaving compared to the demographics of who's coming into the state. Link to comment
Walden Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, Okrahomer said: "Over the past 20 years, California has experienced its slowest rates of growth ever recorded and an unprecedented migration of residents to other states. From 2006 to 2016, California’s population grew by 9%, which was low for the state and barely higher than the rest of the nation (8%). International migration to California has remained strong over the past 10 years: the state experienced a net inflow of 1.6 million. But about 1.2 million more people left California for other states than came to California from other states. Natural increase—more births than deaths—added 2.8 million residents. Overall, California gained 3.1 million residents over the past 10 years. You think that "out-migration" from California is unprecendented now, wait until Gavin Newsom becomes governor in November, the man who was at the absolute forefront of gay marriage and legalized marijuana while he was mayor of San Francisco. I have a feeling you may get many more Mormon neighbors in Utah who have migrated from California in the next 4 years. Link to comment
RevTestament Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 12 hours ago, Thinking said: Since 2008 I have been tracking the LDS membership numbers in 20 selected areas. I have attached the pdf file. Some interesting numbers from this year. Worldwide M/C is up 4 from last year. California's membership decreased by 4,212 and the number of congregations decreased by 42. Alberta, South Africa, Ghana, American Samoa, Samoa, Hawaii, and Michigan each had a decrease in M/C. LDS Church Membership 2008-2017.pdf Thanks for the numbers. Do you have an opinion as to whether the consistent increase in members per congregation is due to the church not building enough new chapels to keep up with the growth in membership or whether that reflects a trend in increased inactive members per congregation over the years? The very high M/C ratio in Peru for instance, suggests a significant inactive population there. Are there any numbers for tithe-paying members? It looks to me like the Church growth has slowed to about the growth of the United States. That's interesting. Link to comment
california boy Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 (edited) Are there any baptismal/new convert numbers available for California? It seems that would be a much more accurate picture of church growth or decline in recent years for California. When I was on my mission in the early 70's, California missions were some of the highest baptizing missions in the world. I actually wrote the mission asking what programs they were having success with. It seems that trajectory has changed. Housing has been an increasing problem in Northern California. Despite rapid expansion of housing units in the Bay Area, the demand for housing is so high that real estate has gone through the roof. It is not uncommon for a house in the Bay Area to go for a couple hundred thousand dollars over asking price. Our neighbor paid $150,000 over asking price for his place which was all ready $200.000 more than we paid for our place just 6 months eariler. A few houses have gone for over a million dollars over asking price. Yeah it is insane. Rent has also skyrocketed. Some have chosen to move out of state, but it seems there are many more ready to jump in and fill the hole. Certainly the high cost of housing is having an impact on the ability to stay in the state. Edited June 20, 2018 by california boy 1 Link to comment
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 I'd bet the problem in Michigan about that time was due to the auto industry. Our ward was getting well over 300 people each week prior to 2008, then it starting dwindling to just over 100 as Ford, GM, and Chrysler started laying people off and it affected everything else. They finally made new ward boundaries in our stake about 2010 and got rid of our ward altogether. Those few left became part of other neighboring wards. My son was really bummed because each of his friends got assigned to a different ward right before his senior year of H.S. (They had won the stake b-ball tourney and would have had everybody back. Now the kids were in 5 different wards). Link to comment
mnn727 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 49 minutes ago, hope_for_things said: I sure do wish the church would report its active membership numbers. How would you judge activity? last year I had back issues and 2 back surgeries. I only made it to Sacrament meeting 2 or 3 times the entire year and never made it to SS or Priesthood at all. I was also not able to Home Teach at all. By every standard I know that would make me inactive, yet I was not - the spirit was willing but the flesh was weak. I had a friend who worked in law enforcement and when he changed forces about 10 years ago he was the low man in seniority and had to work almost every Sunday the first two years - this was a number of years ago. But again by every standard I know of he would have been called inactive.Yet he did all the family things (FHE, Scripture study, prayer, etc) he did his home teaching, he was not really inactive, he just couldn't make it to Church. We have 3 older sisters in my ward that are in nursing homes. They've never come to Church since they went in the home. Yet the RS visits them weekly, Priesthood takes the Sacrament to them and they are assigned HT/Ministering Brothers. Are they active members? To me there are too many variables to be able to define activity, let alone count and report it. 4 Link to comment
CA Steve Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, mnn727 said: How would you judge activity? last year I had back issues and 2 back surgeries. I only made it to Sacrament meeting 2 or 3 times the entire year and never made it to SS or Priesthood at all. I was also not able to Home Teach at all. By every standard I know that would make me inactive, yet I was not - the spirit was willing but the flesh was weak. I had a friend who worked in law enforcement and when he changed forces about 10 years ago he was the low man in seniority and had to work almost every Sunday the first two years - this was a number of years ago. But again by every standard I know of he would have been called inactive.Yet he did all the family things (FHE, Scripture study, prayer, etc) he did his home teaching, he was not really inactive, he just couldn't make it to Church. We have 3 older sisters in my ward that are in nursing homes. They've never come to Church since they went in the home. Yet the RS visits them weekly, Priesthood takes the Sacrament to them and they are assigned HT/Ministering Brothers. Are they active members? To me there are too many variables to be able to define activity, let alone count and report it. "Activity" seems to carry some sort of judgement with it. As you point out, you were not an inactive member when you were ill, simply one who could not attend. I hope your surgeries went well. There is also the opposite side to that coin in that occasionally an inactive member will attend for a variety of reasons, maybe to see a family member bless their newborn or to hear a friend speak. So actually attending church is not necessarily an indication of personal activity. The solution is simple. Instead of reporting numbers labeled as "activity", the church could report attendance numbers at different meetings. While it would not be a gauge of who is and who is not "active" it could, over time, be an indication of involvement at a ward or stake level. At least then one could compare the number of people attending sacrament from one ward to another. One could get an idea from such numbers of what the level of involvement is for the entire ward or stake as compared to other wards and stakes. It would not give any indication of any individual's activity. Link to comment
mrmarklin Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 1 hour ago, hope_for_things said: I'm wondering why the California M/C is so much higher than the Utah M/C. Utah at around 400, and California in the high 500s and hitting 600 on the most recent year. Since I'm assuming congregation sizes are managed based on activity rates, what do you think this means? If we assumed that the average number of active members per congregation in Utah and California is 200 people. then could we also deduce from this data that in Utah there are 200 active people for every 400 members of record, but in California there would be 600 members of record for that same 200 active members? This would essentially mean that California members are significantly less active participants than their Utah counter parts. Thoughts? As a life long resident of California, the activity rate is around 200/600 or even worse. Here in the urban areas we are losing membership due to housing costs. Many retirees sell their homes and move to other cheaper states for the golden years. One can literally buy the same house for 1/3 the price of a CA house and put several hundred thousand $$$ in one's pocket for a decent nest egg. Missionary work is very tough here. Most households have two working parents (to be able to afford the house) and no one is home during the day. I really don't know what missionaries do until after 6pm when people get home from work. Many of the non working folks are on welfare, etc. Not exactly the ideal demographic for church membership. Despite high housing costs, there is still incredible demand. Someone is buying housing! So why don't Mormons move in? Weather is great here and the church has enough infrastructure to make for a good religious life. I have no idea.......... 1 Link to comment
clarkgoble Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 (edited) 14 hours ago, Thinking said: Since 2008 I have been tracking the LDS membership numbers in 20 selected areas. I have attached the pdf file. Some interesting numbers from this year. Worldwide M/C is up 4 from last year. California's membership decreased by 4,212 and the number of congregations decreased by 42. Alberta, South Africa, Ghana, American Samoa, Samoa, Hawaii, and Michigan each had a decrease in M/C. LDS Church Membership 2008-2017.pdf Kind of surprised about polynesian islands. Is that decrease due to people leaving the islands for work? I've known a ton of people here in Utah who were raised in Samoa or Tonga and immigrated when they came of age. For Alberta there's an easier explanation - the lack of jobs. Southern Alberta around the Cardston area just doesn't have work for people after college. So most people move elsewhere. Throw in the collapse in oil jobs that provided opportunity for people in Alberta from all over Canada and it's hardly surprising the community is shrinking. Ghana is a bit more surprising although I wonder if that's more akin to Samoa. Again I've met quite a few people from Ghana who have immigrated to Utah. California is unsurprising and is a trend that goes back a long time with people leaving due to not being able to afford housing. Even if you have a job, having a job that would allow the kind of home near your work and have more than two kids is prohibitive. There's also quality of life issues due to the commute one often has to take for whatever housing you can find. I was offered a job by a large Silicon Valley firm a few years ago that was ridiculously high. Then I looked at quality of life issues due to housing, commute, and quality of schools and turned it down. Even at the salary and bonus they were offering there was no possible way it was worth it. Edited June 20, 2018 by clarkgoble 4 Link to comment
clarkgoble Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, mrmarklin said: Missionary work is very tough here. Most households have two working parents (to be able to afford the house) and no one is home during the day. I really don't know what missionaries do until after 6pm when people get home from work. Many of the non working folks are on welfare, etc. Not exactly the ideal demographic for church membership. There are ways to do it. I had the same problem in Louisiana back in the late 80's when I was at LSU for nearly a year. Our solution, while not really allowed by the handbook, was simply to start most of our work around 7 PM and stayed out until around 10:30 pm teaching. It worked. During the day we just tracted knowing no one was home. So it was a waste of time but we got good exercise. As I recall we went 8 months never getting in a door in our area from 10:30 AM through 6 PM. 2 Link to comment
hope_for_things Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 1 hour ago, mnn727 said: How would you judge activity? last year I had back issues and 2 back surgeries. I only made it to Sacrament meeting 2 or 3 times the entire year and never made it to SS or Priesthood at all. I was also not able to Home Teach at all. By every standard I know that would make me inactive, yet I was not - the spirit was willing but the flesh was weak. I had a friend who worked in law enforcement and when he changed forces about 10 years ago he was the low man in seniority and had to work almost every Sunday the first two years - this was a number of years ago. But again by every standard I know of he would have been called inactive.Yet he did all the family things (FHE, Scripture study, prayer, etc) he did his home teaching, he was not really inactive, he just couldn't make it to Church. We have 3 older sisters in my ward that are in nursing homes. They've never come to Church since they went in the home. Yet the RS visits them weekly, Priesthood takes the Sacrament to them and they are assigned HT/Ministering Brothers. Are they active members? To me there are too many variables to be able to define activity, let alone count and report it. I think the church already has a definition for activity, isn't it attendance for one sacrament meeting in a month? I'm not so worried about the exceptions to the rule, in your case being injured and only able to attend a couple times in the year. As long as we understand how they define activity then we could learn a lot more about the health of church membership. The purpose of these kinds of statistics is to measure and analyze things at a macro level. Link to comment
hope_for_things Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 48 minutes ago, mrmarklin said: As a life long resident of California, the activity rate is around 200/600 or even worse. Here in the urban areas we are losing membership due to housing costs. Many retirees sell their homes and move to other cheaper states for the golden years. One can literally buy the same house for 1/3 the price of a CA house and put several hundred thousand $$$ in one's pocket for a decent nest egg. Missionary work is very tough here. Most households have two working parents (to be able to afford the house) and no one is home during the day. I really don't know what missionaries do until after 6pm when people get home from work. Many of the non working folks are on welfare, etc. Not exactly the ideal demographic for church membership. Despite high housing costs, there is still incredible demand. Someone is buying housing! So why don't Mormons move in? Weather is great here and the church has enough infrastructure to make for a good religious life. I have no idea.......... I've heard these things before as well. Its unfortunately impossible to quantify the statistical significance of these kinds of anecdotes. On a side note, its interesting that you're experiencing the same phenomena that happened during the last housing bubble. I hope this isn't a sign of another big collapse, but it sounds eerily similar to last time around. Link to comment
ksfisher Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 (edited) 5 hours ago, hope_for_things said: I sure do wish the church would report its active membership numbers. The way they count members is so flawed, we can't get clear picture of the health of the church from an active participant perspective When the church is reporting membership numbers, it is doing just that: reporting how many members the church has on record, regardless of activity. The number doesn't claim to be more or less than what it is, membership. Edited June 20, 2018 by ksfisher 2 Link to comment
california boy Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 2 hours ago, mrmarklin said: As a life long resident of California, the activity rate is around 200/600 or even worse. Here in the urban areas we are losing membership due to housing costs. Many retirees sell their homes and move to other cheaper states for the golden years. One can literally buy the same house for 1/3 the price of a CA house and put several hundred thousand $$$ in one's pocket for a decent nest egg. Missionary work is very tough here. Most households have two working parents (to be able to afford the house) and no one is home during the day. I really don't know what missionaries do until after 6pm when people get home from work. Many of the non working folks are on welfare, etc. Not exactly the ideal demographic for church membership. Despite high housing costs, there is still incredible demand. Someone is buying housing! So why don't Mormons move in? Weather is great here and the church has enough infrastructure to make for a good religious life. I have no idea.......... This is what I am seeing in California as well. Link to comment
ksfisher Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 1 hour ago, hope_for_things said: I think the church already has a definition for activity, isn't it attendance for one sacrament meeting in a month? While there is a count taken during sacrament meeting, no one is taking roll. So the church knows that 100 people attended sacrament meeting in Ward X on a certain date, which specific members those are are not tracked. While local leaders "know" who is active and who isn't, it is not something that can be pulled up on a report. 1 Link to comment
ksfisher Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 2 hours ago, mrmarklin said: Despite high housing costs, there is still incredible demand. Someone is buying housing! So why don't Mormons move in? Weather is great here and the church has enough infrastructure to make for a good religious life. I have no idea.......... Does family size have anything to do with it? Mormon families will typically have more children with more of their income going towards the costs associated with those children. Link to comment
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