Mormonleaks: Utah Activity Rate is...

[cinepro]

...55%.

A recently leaked document includes notes on mission president training, in which it is revealed that in 2015:

 

Quote

Utah now has 585 stakes. More than 1 million members attend sacrament meeting each week.

850,000 less actives don’t attend and another 850,000 nonmembers.

 

Also,

Quote

We are still losing more than we are keeping. Unless we change, everything will remain the same.

Can't remember if we're allowed to link to the docs.

Edited May 23, 2017 by cinepro

[Robert F. Smith]

So, with an overall Utah population of 2,996,000, we have 1  million attending LDS Sacrament Meeting on any given Sunday, while 850,000 Mormons don't bother to attend, and 850,000 non-members also don't attend?  Where is the leftover ca. 300,000?  Who might they be?  How does that compare with activity rates in other states and other religions?  And, how does this look if we graph it for the past 100 years?

https://www.google.com/#q=population+of+utah .

[HappyJackWagon]

13 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

So, with an overall Utah population of 2,996,000, we have 1  million attending LDS Sacrament Meeting on any given Sunday, while 850,000 Mormons don't bother to attend, and 850,000 non-members also don't attend?  Where is the leftover ca. 300,000?  Who might they be?  How does that compare with activity rates in other states and other religions?  And, how does this look if we graph it for the past 100 years?

https://www.google.com/#q=population+of+utah .

Good question. We may need to ask the church since it's the number from their document.

I'm pretty surprised that the population of Utah is under 3 million. 55% activity rate is higher than I would have expected.

FYI- I believe the mods have allowed for linking to the docs so here it is. https://mormonleaks.io/wiki/documents/4/4d/Utah_Areas_Interim_Mission_Presidents_Seminar-2015-04.pdf

[SeekingUnderstanding]

17 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

So, with an overall Utah population of 2,996,000, we have 1  million attending LDS Sacrament Meeting on any given Sunday, while 850,000 Mormons don't bother to attend, and 850,000 non-members also don't attend?  Where is the leftover ca. 300,000?  Who might they be?  How does that compare with activity rates in other states and other religions?  And, how does this look if we graph it for the past 100 years?

https://www.google.com/#q=population+of+utah .

Maybe they are the active people who missed church that week?

[bluebell]

18 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

So, with an overall Utah population of 2,996,000, we have 1  million attending LDS Sacrament Meeting on any given Sunday, while 850,000 Mormons don't bother to attend, and 850,000 non-members also don't attend?  Where is the leftover ca. 300,000?  Who might they be?  How does that compare with activity rates in other states and other religions?  And, how does this look if we graph it for the past 100 years?

https://www.google.com/#q=population+of+utah .

The quote actually says "more than 1 million members..."  Maybe the actual number is 1.3 million?

[Duncan]

I would LOVE to know how people get this kinds of things, are they laying around the house and some ex member family member sends them to mormon leaks? how are they getting this stuff?

[rongo]

13 minutes ago, Duncan said:

I would LOVE to know how people get this kinds of things, are they laying around the house and some ex member family member sends them to mormon leaks? how are they getting this stuff?

They're being leaked by COB employees. When the new handbooks come out, the leak clearinghouses have them before stake presidencies and bishoprics. It is instant, and could only be by people with access to them at COB. 

I am amazed at the depth of mole infiltration at the COB. 

[Duncan]

Just now, rongo said:

They're being leaked by COB employees. When the new handbooks come out, the leak clearinghouses have them before stake presidencies and bishoprics. It is instant, and could only be by people with access to them at COB. 

I am amazed at the depth of mole infiltration at the COB. 

intriguing!!!! probably some work dispute, "This'll show that uppity good for nothing who's chief cheese around these parts" I can hear it now

[clarkgoble]

49 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

Maybe they are the active people who missed church that week?

This has to be accounted for. With big families it's quite common to miss church with throwing up kids or the like. I swear some stretches I'm lucky to hit 50% attendance for months at a time.

[rongo]

5 minutes ago, Duncan said:

intriguing!!!! probably some work dispute, "This'll show that uppity good for nothing who's chief cheese around these parts" I can hear it now

I actually think that it's much more insidious than that. I think that there are people, with temple recommends, who don't believe key things and feel a thrill in working against it, embarrassing the Church, spreading seeds of doubt and dissent, etc. The rise of the bloggernacle creates an atmosphere where they can boast of their exploits or disseminate purloined items anonymously and be praised for it. 

[HappyJackWagon]

3 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

This has to be accounted for. With big families it's quite common to miss church with throwing up kids or the like. I swear some stretches I'm lucky to hit 50% attendance for months at a time.

Of course, attendance numbers aren't really reported on a weekly basis (though I'm not sure why since a count is done weekly). Typically the attendance from the final month of the quarter is averaged for attendance stats.

[Duncan]

Just now, rongo said:

I actually think that it's much more insidious than that. I think that there are people, with temple recommends, who don't believe key things and feel a thrill in working against it, embarrassing the Church, spreading seeds of doubt and dissent, etc. The rise of the bloggernacle creates an atmosphere where they can boast of their exploits or disseminate purloined items anonymously and be praised for it. 

I wouldn't doubt it, their misdeed will surely find them out as my Grandma always used to say

[Gray]

27 minutes ago, rongo said:

They're being leaked by COB employees. When the new handbooks come out, the leak clearinghouses have them before stake presidencies and bishoprics. It is instant, and could only be by people with access to them at COB. 

I am amazed at the depth of mole infiltration at the COB. 

Mole infiltration sounds like exmos are applying for jobs at the COB. Likely it's people who started out working there as believers, had a faith crisis, and are currently antagonistic toward Mormonism but keeping quiet to keep their jobs. 

 

[rongo]

Just now, Gray said:

Mole infiltration sounds like exmos are applying for jobs at the COB. Likely it's people who started out working there as believers, had a faith crisis, and are currently antagonistic toward Mormonism but keeping quiet to keep their jobs. 

Correct. I didn't mean that there is a covert operation to infiltrate under foot, and I agree that the moles/leakers are almost certainly people who have soured on the Church, but hide this to retain their job or to retain a TR (or to hide from family). 

I don't like our culture of leaking/hidden mike/hidden camera footage that permeates everything in general these days, not just the Church.

[Gray]

3 minutes ago, rongo said:

Correct. I didn't mean that there is a covert operation to infiltrate under foot, and I agree that the moles/leakers are almost certainly people who have soured on the Church, but hide this to retain their job or to retain a TR (or to hide from family). 

I don't like our culture of leaking/hidden mike/hidden camera footage that permeates everything in general these days, not just the Church.

Yeah. In cases where there is a legitimate need for a whistleblower, I think leaks can be a good thing. But no one "needs" to know that the activity rate for Utah is 55% if church leaders don't want to share that. 

[Calm]

25 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

This has to be accounted for. With big families it's quite common to miss church with throwing up kids or the like. I swear some stretches I'm lucky to hit 50% attendance for months at a time.

Older people as well who cannot attend and chronically ill.

[hope_for_things]

I'm surprised the attendance % is this high.  I think the worldwide number that I remember is closer to 30% on average.  So if Utah activity is north of 50% then that's really quite remarkable to me.  I would have thought closer to 40%.  Of course it would be interesting to know how this compares historically, if we only knew...

[clarkgoble]

56 minutes ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Of course, attendance numbers aren't really reported on a weekly basis (though I'm not sure why since a count is done weekly). Typically the attendance from the final month of the quarter is averaged for attendance stats.

Right. More the point I'm making is that you have fully active people who are regularly missing meetings for a variety of reasons. Childhood illnesses is the most common but also baby blessings, farewells, homecomings, vacations and so forth. All those add up especially in Utah. So if every family misses lets say 5-8 meetings a year, that's a significant difference in the averaged attendance stats.

The point being that attendance stats probably should at best be about 15% below what the actual activity is. And that's ignoring the chronically ill as Calm noted. 

Honestly 55% attendance is surprisingly huge just thinking towards my ward boundaries in Utah and how many inactives there are. Add that 15% in and you get around 64% which is actually pretty close to the difference between self-identity numbers and official church membership numbers as I recall.

Edited May 23, 2017 by clarkgoble

[hope_for_things]

1 minute ago, clarkgoble said:

Right. More the point I'm making is that you have fully active people who are regularly missing meetings for a variety of reasons. Childhood illnesses is the most common but also baby blessings, farewells, homecomings and so forth. All those add up especially in Utah. So if every family misses lets say 5-8 meetings a year, that's a significant difference in the averaged attendance stats.

The point being that attendance stats probably should at best be about 15% below what the actual activity is. And that's ignoring the chronically ill as Calm noted. 

Honestly 55% attendance is surprisingly huge just thinking towards my ward boundaries in Utah and how many inactives there are.

Is it possible that this quote was inaccurately stating what an active member is doing.  I've always heard that activity is defined as attendance once per month in sacrament meeting.  I know the quote says weekly attendance, but isn't it possible that they are misquoting the data rather than reporting on a different statistic all together?  

I agree with you that active members would miss quite a few meetings for various reasons, so I'm wondering if this quote was supposed to represent the activity rate as traditionally defined which is one sacrament meeting per month.  

[SeekingUnderstanding]

32 minutes ago, hope_for_things said:

I'm surprised the attendance % is this high.  I think the worldwide number that I remember is closer to 30% on average.  So if Utah activity is north of 50% then that's really quite remarkable to me.  I would have thought closer to 40%.  Of course it would be interesting to know how this compares historically, if we only knew...

I'm not that surprised. In Utah (espically Utah and Davis counties - and I assume other rural counties) there is a strong social aspect to church attendance, since the vast majority of your neighbors are Mormon. You can read about activity rates here:

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?target=church_growth_articles&story_id=13

In 1992, the Encyclopedia of Mormonism listed the average Sacrament attendance in the United States as between 40-50%. 

[SeekingUnderstanding]

4 minutes ago, hope_for_things said:

Is it possible that this quote was inaccurately stating what an active member is doing.  I've always heard that activity is defined as attendance once per month in sacrament meeting.  I know the quote says weekly attendance, but isn't it possible that they are misquoting the data rather than reporting on a different statistic all together?  

I agree with you that active members would miss quite a few meetings for various reasons, so I'm wondering if this quote was supposed to represent the activity rate as traditionally defined which is one sacrament meeting per month.  

The church considers activity as attendance once per quarter.

[SeekingUnderstanding]

9 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

Right. More the point I'm making is that you have fully active people who are regularly missing meetings for a variety of reasons. Childhood illnesses is the most common but also baby blessings, farewells, homecomings, vacations and so forth. All those add up especially in Utah. So if every family misses lets say 5-8 meetings a year, that's a significant difference in the averaged attendance stats.

The point being that attendance stats probably should at best be about 15% below what the actual activity is. And that's ignoring the chronically ill as Calm noted. 

Honestly 55% attendance is surprisingly huge just thinking towards my ward boundaries in Utah and how many inactives there are. Add that 15% in and you get around 64% which is actually pretty close to the difference between self-identity numbers and official church membership numbers as I recall.

Sacrament meeting attendance in my Utah ward is right around 70%. Our activity rate is closer to about 90%

[hope_for_things]

8 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

The church considers activity as attendance once per quarter.

Wow, somehow I missed this as I thought it was monthly.  Thats a low bar for activity.  

[hope_for_things]

10 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

I'm not that surprised. In Utah (espically Utah and Davis counties - and I assume other rural counties) there is a strong social aspect to church attendance, since the vast majority of your neighbors are Mormon. You can read about activity rates here:

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?target=church_growth_articles&story_id=13

In 1992, the Encyclopedia of Mormonism listed the average Sacrament attendance in the United States as between 40-50%. 

Yes, so has activity fallen similarly for the Utah population?  If activity is 30% now in the USA, but it used to be 40-50% (lets say 45%), then thats a 33% decline in activity rate from 1992 to 2015.  If the current activity in Utah is 55%, by applying that 33% decline in reverse that would mean the Utah activity rate in 1992 would have been 73% activity in 1992.  Does that seem like a reasonable ratio to you for 1992 vs today for Utah?  

[SeekingUnderstanding]

4 minutes ago, hope_for_things said:

Yes, so has activity fallen similarly for the Utah population?  If activity is 30% now in the USA, but it used to be 40-50% (lets say 45%), then thats a 33% decline in activity rate from 1992 to 2015.  If the current activity in Utah is 55%, by applying that 33% decline in reverse that would mean the Utah activity rate in 1992 would have been 73% activity in 1992.  Does that seem like a reasonable ratio to you for 1992 vs today for Utah?  

I suspect that a 30% activity rate is much too low for the United States, but may be about right for a world wide estimation. I'm only aware of attendance rates in the few places that I've lived (only been in Utah for less than a decade), but all have been between 40 and 50% (before moving to Utah).