Generalizations About Mormons Extracted From Utah Statistics

[KevinG]

I'm not sure why the Utah and Marriage statistics thread was closed but I didn't get a chance to answer Rockponds question (although Smac did a fairly good job of breaking it down).  

 

Here is the answer:

 

The Blue Dreams comment I referred to was here: http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/65918-utah-and-marital-affairs/?p=1209528191  and it shows the dangers of drawing conclusions from a small subgroup of any population.  

 

My statement that only 45% of the citizens of Salt Lake City (the actual population that the Ashley Madison numbers were taken from) is overstated.  The actual numbers are here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Utah#Religion and indicate a 41% Mormon representation in SLC.

 

- - -

 

But this brings up a larger issue.  Can Salt Lake City or even Utah be representative of "Mormon Culture" when it comprises only 58% of the population of the State of Utah, active Mormons only account for 41.6% - of just under 3 million residents.  

 

So out of a 15 Million worldwide number only 8% are represented by active Utah Mormons.  They are the most dense LDS population of any state, but it's still difficult to draw conclusions about "Mormons" by looking at "Utah" and supposing they are synonymous. 

[sethpayne]

I'm not sure why the Utah and Marriage statistics thread was closed but I didn't get a chance to answer Rockponds question (although Smac did a fairly good job of breaking it down).  

 

Here is the answer:

 

The Blue Dreams comment I referred to was here: http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/65918-utah-and-marital-affairs/?p=1209528191  and it shows the dangers of drawing conclusions from a small subgroup of any population.  

 

My statement that only 45% of the citizens of Salt Lake City (the actual population that the Ashley Madison numbers were taken from) is overstated.  The actual numbers are here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Utah#Religion and indicate a 41% Mormon representation in SLC.

 

- - -

 

But this brings up a larger issue.  Can Salt Lake City or even Utah be representative of "Mormon Culture" when it comprises only 58% of the population of the State of Utah, active Mormons only account for 41.6% - of just under 3 million residents.  

 

So out of a 15 Million worldwide number only 8% are represented by active Utah Mormons.  They are the most dense LDS population of any state, but it's still difficult to draw conclusions about "Mormons" by looking at "Utah" and supposing they are synonymous. 

 

I've been playing around with the AM data and ran a query across several of the tables to see how many folks in Provo were registered.  6,000+  Some BYU addresses but not many.  Unfortunately, one seemed legit but we have no way of knowing if that professor signed up or not given that AM didn't require validation of email addresses.  

 

Given that Utah County is mostly LDS, I have to imagine that some of these users are LDS.  Sadly, I was also able to see that the AM website was accessed from several BYU buildings (AM stored the latitude and longitude of when the app was used -- a good reminder to disable "location services" unless absolutely necessary).

 

But on your larger point, I agree.  I think we have to be very careful about drawing conclusions about Mormons from Utah stats.  I think that these stats can raise interesting questions but these questions will *always require* further validation.  For example, the high rate of anti-depressant use in Utah.  We have no way of knowing if it is related to Mormonism but we can certainly use it as a springboard to ask those questions.  Are Mormons taking these instead of self-medicating with alcohol?  What about the split between active and less-active LDS?  

Anyway, I agree with you.  

[KevinG]

Sadly, I was also able to see that the AM website was accessed from several BYU buildings (AM stored the latitude and longitude of when the app was used...

 

Fire them.  Not for moral failings.  But anyone stupid enough to purchase Ashley Madison services from a work computer should not be teaching at Brigham Young University.  

[sethpayne]

Fire them.  Not for moral failings.  But anyone stupid enough to purchase Ashley Madison services from a work computer should not be teaching at Brigham Young University.  

 

Oh I have no doubt that will all come down.  Sadly, I found some other folks I know personally and it breaks my heart because their wives and children are going to suffer for their betrayal.  Sad that this site ever existed -- unfortunate that it took illegal hacking to expose this -- but hopefully some good will come from it in the long run.  

 

I wouldn't be surprised if some IT guys at BYU aren't working through the data themselves.

 

And even in this case where we are talking about users with immoral intentions -- this should serve as a reminder for all of us:  Don't do or say anything on the internet that you wouldn't want to see on the front page of the Daily Herald!

Edited August 21, 2015 by sethpayne

[ALarson]

Given that Utah County is mostly LDS, I have to imagine that some of these users are LDS.  

 

I agree (interesting information in your posts, sethpayne).  If Salt Lake City was the 4th city in the nation (number of memberships on Ashley Madison per capita), one can assume some were LDS. But again, we don't know details, activity levels and so on.

[KevinG]

And even in this case where we are talking about users with immoral intentions -- this should serve as a reminder for all of us:  Don't do or say anything on the internet that you wouldn't want to see on the front page of the Daily Herald!

 

That was preached to me fairly heavily when I worked for our State's Governor.  I like to tell my kids to use Facebook like a Public Relations firm not a confessional.

[KevinG]

Blue Dreams indicated that .66% (or .0066 of the adult population of Salt Lake City of @200,000) were users of Ashley Madison, then that leaves us with 1320 paid subscribers.

 

Given that the rate of Active Mormons in Salt Lake City is between 35-41% then conservatively speaking there are statistically 541 LDS subscribed wanabee adulterers in Salt Lake City.  

 

Of those I wonder how many are active opponents of gay marriage.  The smell of hypocrisy barely registers against the smell of dead brine shrimp on the edge of the Great Salt Lake.

[The Nehor]

Glad I used a fake name.

[KevinG]

Glad I used a fake name.

 

JoshDuggarSLC is that you?

[ttribe]

<-------- [Came in here hoping to see the results of KevinG's Mormon Fart Study...left disappointed.]

[KevinG]

<-------- [Came in here hoping to see the results of KevinG's Mormon Fart Study...left disappointed.]

 

"He who farts in church sits in own pew." -Confucius 

 

Preliminary results show that farts in church far outweigh the smell of marriage related hypocrisy in Salt Lake City.  There may be a link to a proliferation of Chipotle Mexican Grill locations in the SLC metro area https://www.bing.com/search?q=Chipotle+Utah+Locations&FORM=QSRE1

[ALarson]

Blue Dreams indicated that .66% (or .0066 of the adult population of Salt Lake City of @200,000) were users of Ashley Madison, then that leaves us with 1320 paid subscribers.

 

Is that accurate?  Then how did SLC rank as the 4th city in the nation for memberships on Ashley Madison (per capita)? (I'm obviously not great with stats )  So I ask....

Edited August 21, 2015 by ALarson

[jkwilliams]

Here's what I extract from the Utah data: Utahns, including Mormons, are just as human as everyone else. 

[The Nehor]

JoshDuggarSLC is that you?

Nope.

Chad Thunder**** ********** ********

[sethpayne]

Is that accurate?  Then how did SLC rank as the 4th city in the nation for memberships on Ashley Madison (per capita)? (I'm obviously not great with stats )  So I ask....

 

I'm skeptical of that number myself.  Given that *just* Provo has over 6000 names, and the entire state of Utah was over 50k (i'm refining my query now to get an exact number).

[sethpayne]

I'm skeptical of that number myself.  Given that *just* Provo has over 6000 names, and the entire state of Utah was over 50k (i'm refining my query now to get an exact number).

 

OK.  First off -- I am NOT a Database Admin so there is always a chance my number is off.  But I am showing ~220,000 registered members who gave Utah Zip codes.

[sethpayne]

Blue Dreams indicated that .66% (or .0066 of the adult population of Salt Lake City of @200,000) were users of Ashley Madison, then that leaves us with 1320 paid subscribers.

 

Given that the rate of Active Mormons in Salt Lake City is between 35-41% then conservatively speaking there are statistically 541 LDS subscribed wanabee adulterers in Salt Lake City.  

 

Of those I wonder how many are active opponents of gay marriage.  The smell of hypocrisy barely registers against the smell of dead brine shrimp on the edge of the Great Salt Lake.

 

I just ran another query specifically on "Salt Lake City" and it returned ~44,000 records.

 

ETA:  Having said that ... I am looking at just the member data.  Perhaps the number of "paid" subscribers was much smaller -- which wouldn't surprise me.  But paid or not, if you registered for that site, I think you can expect some problems coming your way.  And unfortunately, it is going to tear some families apart.

Edited August 21, 2015 by sethpayne

[KevinG]

Is that accurate?  Then how did SLC rank as the 4th city in the nation for memberships on Ashley Madison (per capita)? (I'm obviously not great with stats )  So I ask....

 

Here is the article BD linked:  http://fusion.net/story/185853/the-united-states-of-ashley-madison/

 

I don't see SLC numbers just Utah, so I will revise my calculations.

 

Population of Utah @3,000,000 (2.9mm in 2013)

 

Percentage of Ashley Madison Users .66% (.0066 out of every 1 person)

 

Total AM users in Utah 19,800

 

Percentage of Utahans that are active LDS 58%

 

Statistical likelyhood of the number of active Latter-day Sainst subscribing to AM = 11,000 or .3% of the population of Utah

 

This assumes LDS and non-LDS subscribe to AM at a constant rate.

 

Two observations:  1) 19,000 subscribers to Ashley Madison is a hell of a big number of adulterers online.  2) .3% of anything is a very insignificant trend for a general population.

[Walden]

Blue Dreams indicated that .66% (or .0066 of the adult population of Salt Lake City of @200,000) were users of Ashley Madison, then that leaves us with 1320 paid subscribers.

 

Given that the rate of Active Mormons in Salt Lake City is between 35-41% then conservatively speaking there are statistically 541 LDS subscribed wanabee adulterers in Salt Lake City.  

 

Of those I wonder how many are active opponents of gay marriage.  The smell of hypocrisy barely registers against the smell of dead brine shrimp on the edge of the Great Salt Lake.

 

I'll have to remember this rationalization the next time a poster comes on here citing an article how Utah ranks highest/near the top for topics such as "most charitable state, "state with highest marriage satisfaction rates," "most educated state," etc., and then everyone jumps on board and pats one another on the back on how these positive results are the result of the church teachings, LDS mindsets, etc. I have seen numerous such posts over the years.

[ALarson]

I just ran another query specifically on "Salt Lake City" and it returned ~44,000 records.

 

ETA:  Having said that ... I am looking at just the member data.  Perhaps the number of "paid" subscribers was much smaller -- which wouldn't surprise me.  But paid or not, if you registered for that site, I think you can expect some problems coming your way.  And unfortunately, it is going to tear some families apart.

Thanks for the info, sethpayne.  

[KevinG]

I just ran another query specifically on "Salt Lake City" and it returned ~44,000 records.

 

ETA:  Having said that ... I am looking at just the member data.  Perhaps the number of "paid" subscribers was much smaller -- which wouldn't surprise me.  But paid or not, if you registered for that site, I think you can expect some problems coming your way.  And unfortunately, it is going to tear some families apart.

 

Yes I think the linked article with .66% was paid subscriptions per capita.

[HappyJackWagon]

 

But this brings up a larger issue.  Can Salt Lake City or even Utah be representative of "Mormon Culture" when it comprises only 58% of the population of the State of Utah, active Mormons only account for 41.6% - of just under 3 million residents.  

 

 

So out of a 15 Million worldwide number only 8% are represented by active Utah Mormons.  They are the most dense LDS population of any state, but it's still difficult to draw conclusions about "Mormons" by looking at "Utah" and supposing they are synonymous. 

While I agree we can't draw too many firm conclusions about Mormonism taken directly from Utah statistics, I think it would be a mistake to act like there is no relationship at all.

 

You are not comparing the same thing with your numbers. (15 million total members versus 3 million ACTIVE Utah Mormons)

We don't know exact activity rates because the church doesn't release that info, however, earlier in the year an article slipped through the DN for a few hours listing the rate at @35%.

 

IF that's accurate we would then be looking 3 million active Utah Mormons against 5.25 million worldwide active mormons, thus making the relationship stronger. In other words, Utah would account for 57% of all active Mormons worldwide. I think that shows Utah is still significant culturally when considering active Mormons.

[ERayR]

I'll have to remember this rationalization the next time a poster comes on here citing an article how Utah ranks highest/near the top for topics such as "most charitable state, "state with highest marriage satisfaction rates," "most educated state," etc., and then everyone jumps on board and pats one another on the back on how these positive results are the result of the church teachings, LDS mindsets, etc. I have seen numerous such posts over the years.

 

What ever floats your boat.

[KevinG]

I'll have to remember this rationalization the next time a poster comes on here citing an article how Utah ranks highest/near the top for topics such as "most charitable state, "state with highest marriage satisfaction rates," "most educated state," etc., and then everyone jumps on board and pats one another on the back on how these positive results are the result of the church teachings, LDS mindsets, etc. I have seen numerous such posts over the years.

 

Enjoy!

 

I don't put much stock in most of these types of articles.  My own home town just came up on a list of 50 best places to live, and my first thought was, "what did they determine that based on?"

 

On the other hand I don't usually announce "the smell of hypocrisy" when seeing unfavorable statistics about any particular group.  Please go back and look at who threw the stone in whose glass house when it came to Utah and adultery. 

[Mola Ram Suda Ram]

I want to talk about this:

just commenting on the scent of hypocrisy in the air.

 

But hey, I didn't accuse anyone of hypocrisy.