Alf O'Mega Statistical Report Predictions?

[Nomad]

I have been looking for Alf O'Mega's annual "Handicapping the Statistical Report", but I can't find it anywhere.

IIRC, he moved it last year to the Mormon Discussions message board, but my link to that message board is no longer working. Actually, it looks like there is no longer a site called mormon*****.***. Anyone know what happened there? Did Dr. Shades, Dr. Scratch, and all their buddies finally give up with their Mormon-bashing enterprise?

At any rate, does anyone know if "Alf O'Mega" has posted his statistical predictions anywhere in cyberspace? That was something I always looked forward to each spring. That, and general conference, of course.

Thanks ...

Edited March 29, 2012 by Nomad

[BCSpace]

IIRC, he moved it last year to the Mormon Discussions message board, but my link to that message board is no longer working. Actually, it looks like there is no longer a site called mormon*****.***. Anyone know what happened there?

There is apparently a technical difficulty with that board since Tuesday. Some people were being redirected to other possibly nefarious sites when they logged in so that board was taken down to try and solve the problem. A temporary board has been set up.

There are 22 users so far and not much happening at the moment. Alf O'Mega is not currently one of the registered users there.

Did Dr. Shades, Dr. Scratch, and all their buddies finally give up with their Mormon-bashing enterprise?

The board doesn't have to be that way if more LDS would post there and/or if more LDS would practice ignore instead of allowing themselves to be offended.

Edited March 31, 2012 by Nemesis
link removed

[wenglund]

The board doesn't have to be that way if more LDS would post there and/or if more LDS would practice ignore instead of allowing themselves to be offended.

To me, there is a point at which it is unhealthy and counterproductive to ignore toxic fumes.

Thanks, -Wade Englund-

Edited March 29, 2012 by wenglund

[BCSpace]

The board doesn't have to be that way if more LDS would post there and/or if more LDS would practice ignore instead of allowing themselves to be offended.

To me, there is a point at which it is unhealthy and counterproductive to ignore toxic fumes.

In that case, just hold your nose and cover your mouth. The sick still have need of the Physician and you, by virtue of being LDS, are authorized to bring him. It's a little ironic you'd worry about that considering what you said in another thread:

there is still ample room for divergent opinions, which enables us, as a church, to avoid the pitfalls of creedalism warned against by Joseph Smith

That board is uniquely set up to encourage divergent opinions.......

Edited March 29, 2012 by BCSpace

[wenglund]

In that case, just hold your nose and cover your mouth. The sick still have need of the Physician and you, by virtue of being LDS, are authorized to bring him.

You are missing the point. There are environments that are conducive to healing, and others that are conducive to spreading disease. While it is noble to bring spiritually medicinal help to those in need, it doesn't make sense to operate with the patient immersed in a cease pool.

It's a little ironic you'd worry about that considering what you said in another thread:

That board is uniquely set up to encourage divergent opinions.......

You misunderstand me. If "that board" actually encouraged divergent opinions, and more particularly, if it did so in a productive way, then I would have no problem with it. From my years of experience there, what I have found encouraged there is dysfunction.

Thanks, -Wade Englund-

Edited March 29, 2012 by wenglund

[BCSpace]

You are missing the point. There are environments that are conducive to healing, and others that are conducive to spreading disease. While it is noble to bring spiritually medicinal help to those in need, it doesn't make sense to operate with the patient immersed in a cease pool.

True enough. But in order to rescue someone, one often has to go into the cess pool and get them. Jesus himself ate with sinners. I have also heard on more than one occaision visiting GA's at Stake Priesthood meeetings or the adult meeting the Saturday night before a Stake Conference refer to the pool of prospective Elders as a "vast swamp" that we have to enter in order to perform rescue operations.

But I do understand that we all have our own limits which that board can stretch quite a bit. I say similar things to them when they complain about being ignored by us, that they need to increase the value of their dialogue. Yet, the fact remains that it is on that board, not this one, where all things related to the Gospel can be discussed.

You misunderstand me. If "that board" actually encouraged divergent opinions, and more particularly, if it did so in a productive way, then I would have no problem with it. From my years of experience there, what I have found encouraged there is dysfunction.

Sure. Ignoring what is of no value is the key. But you have to remember that all people have value, no matter what is their current state. From your words, it appears that you might also agree that boards which enforce one opinion only also encourage dysfunction.

Edited March 29, 2012 by BCSpace

[Bond...James Bond]

Jesus himself ate with sinners.

We put out a buffet to die for. BC went from a 32" waist to 38" in three weeks.

Edited March 29, 2012 by Bond...James Bond

[BCSpace]

We put out a buffet to die for. BC went from a 32" waist to 38" in three weeks.

I actually have been that large. Got back to a 32, now a 34. Time to work at it again.

[phaedrus ut]

I was wondering the same thing because I didn't see it. I did see a link on the Reddit exmormon page that linked to another post called 2012 General Conference Statistical Predictions and Analysis. Based on the language and details it reminded me of the old Alf O'Mega threads here.

Phaedrus

//FYI both links are to exmo forums but neither has temple content on the linked pages.

[BCSpace]

He's quite the pessimist; assuming that membership and growth thereof equates to truth.

[wenglund]

True enough. But in order to rescue someone, one often has to go into the cess pool and get them. Jesus himself ate with sinners. I have also heard on more than one occaision visiting GA's at Stake Priesthood meetings or the adult meeting the Saturday night before a Stake Conference refer to the pool of prospective Elders as a "vast swamp" that we have to enter in order to perform rescue operations.

I think you are still missing the point. It isn't just the toxic environment. We are talking about people who are disinterested in being rescued, and are likely offended at the thought of being rescued, and who consider themselves as the rescuers.

Do you really think the Savior would have supped with certain publicans and sinners if the dinner conversation was dominated by bashing and insulting the Savior, his disciples, and the gospel he preached, in an effort to rescue the Savior? I sure don't.

But I do understand that we all have our own limits which that board can stretch quite a bit. I say similar things to them when they complain about being ignored by us, that they need to increase the value of their dialogue. Yet, the fact remains that it is on that board, not this one, where all things related to the Gospel can be discussed.

I think you are using the word "discussed" a bit too loosely. Yes, on that board, unlike here, gospel pearls can be cast before swine. I am not sure that is a compelling argument for visiting that board.

Sure. Ignoring what is of no value is the key. But you have to remember that all people have value, no matter what is their current state. From your words, it appears that you might also agree that boards which enforce one opinion only also encourage dysfunction.

It isn't so much about value as it is about what works and what doesn't. On the other board, there are people of value interacting in ways the diminish each others value. To me, that doesn't work.

But, this is going far afield of the topic, and so I will leave it at that.

Thanks, -Wade Englund-

[William Schryver]

I was wondering the same thing because I didn't see it. I did see a link on the Reddit exmormon page that linked to another post called 2012 General Conference Statistical Predictions and Analysis. Based on the language and details it reminded me of the old Alf O'Mega threads here.

Phaedrus

//FYI both links are to exmo forums but neither has temple content on the linked pages.

I checked out the link you provided. Interesting analysis, but it was not authored by "Alf O'Mega". It was authored by Eric Davis. I know Alf's IRL name, and also his style of writing. I do hope "Alf" will see this thread and post a 2012 edition of his statistical analysis. I have always quite liked "Alf" and have always looked forward to his annual "Handicapping the Statistical Report".

[phaedrus ut]

I checked out the link you provided. Interesting analysis, but it was not authored by "Alf O'Mega". It was authored by Eric Davis. I know Alf's IRL name, and also his style of writing. I do hope "Alf" will see this thread and post a 2012 edition of his statistical analysis. I have always quite liked "Alf" and have always looked forward to his annual "Handicapping the Statistical Report".

I read the link again and saw it said he was doing it for the 3rd year and I realized that Alf had to have been doing it much longer than that.

[Avatar4321]

I was under the impressions that Alf O'Mega wasn't doing the handicapping reports any more. Could have sworn there was a thread on this last year or something. I could be wrong. I think im losing my memory during my pending fatherhood.

[Calm]

Not likely to post them here again...

[BCSpace]

http://www.mormondia...__fromsearch__1

Not likely to post them here again...

He says it's non trivial, but it should be trivial after the first time if the proper spreadsheet or similar form is created. All one has to do afterwards then is plug and play.

[William Schryver]

To me, there is a point at which it is unhealthy and counterproductive to ignore toxic fumes.

Thanks, -Wade Englund-

Thankfully, given time, one does recover from the deleterious effects of wandering the mean streets and shadowed alleys of the great and spacious trailer park.

[William Schryver]

He says it's non trivial, but it should be trivial after the first time if the proper spreadsheet or similar form is created. All one has to do afterwards then is plug and play.

Trivial or not, I hope Alf sees this thread and accepts our gratitude for his good work of the past in preparing his informative analyses. If we've seen the last of his annual postings, I for one am sorry.

[BCSpace]

Trivial or not, I hope Alf sees this thread and accepts our gratitude for his good work of the past in preparing his informative analyses. If we've seen the last of his annual postings, I for one am sorry.

Oh it's good work, I'm just implying that someone else could do it just as well and it would be a good check of the previous methodology and interpretation.

[Duncan]

I checked out the link you provided. Interesting analysis, but it was not authored by "Alf O'Mega". It was authored by Eric Davis. I know Alf's IRL name, and also his style of writing. I do hope "Alf" will see this thread and post a 2012 edition of his statistical analysis. I have always quite liked "Alf" and have always looked forward to his annual "Handicapping the Statistical Report".

I know Eric Davis, I feel bad he has gone the way he has

[BCSpace]

I think you are still missing the point. It isn't just the toxic environment. We are talking about people who are disinterested in being rescued, and are likely offended at the thought of being rescued, and who consider themselves as the rescuers.

I haven't missed the point. And yes they are indeed offended at the thought which I remind them of often. However, they're not the point at all. It's all about having an alternate voice for the Church and for those who are lurking from whom I get positive communication from time to time.

Do you really think the Savior would have supped with certain publicans and sinners if the dinner conversation was dominated by bashing and insulting the Savior, his disciples, and the gospel he preached, in an effort to rescue the Savior? I sure don't.

I do. Afterall, he expects us to do it; you know the blood (figuratively) of the Saints will be on their hands type stuff.

It isn't so much about value as it is about what works and what doesn't. On the other board, there are people of value interacting in ways the diminish each others value. To me, that doesn't work.

The ones you're worried about are not the ones I'm actually interacting with even though it appears to be so.

[Hamba Tuhan]

It'll be interesting to see the actual stats to learn if our area is an outlier or if it reflects broader trends. We had a training broadcast from our area presidency this past Sunday evening wherein they shared figures from the past three years, and 2011 saw enormous growths (several times over in some cases) in these parts. So far, 2012 seems to be continuing the trend. The average sacrament meeting attendance in my ward has gone up 39% since December.

On another note, I suspect there's a difference between dining with Publicans and sinners and dining with the Sanhedrin.

[Log]

del

Edited March 30, 2012 by Log

[LDSToronto]

I was under the impressions that Alf O'Mega wasn't doing the handicapping reports any more. Could have sworn there was a thread on this last year or something. I could be wrong. I think im losing my memory during my pending fatherhood.

I don't recall Alf saying he'd stop his yearly reports. I do recall he said he'd stop posting them on this board because he was worried that the board was inadequate for archiving (something about the name change and post trimming that happened a year or so ago).

Of course, Mormon Discussions is having tech issues and is offline, so I don't see how that is a better option.

H.

[Bond...James Bond]

I don't recall Alf saying he'd stop his yearly reports. I do recall he said he'd stop posting them on this board because he was worried that the board was inadequate for archiving (something about the name change and post trimming that happened a year or so ago).

Of course, Mormon Discussions is having tech issues and is offline, so I don't see how that is a better option.

H.

I suspect MDB will be up sometime next week. I think it's a technical issue that has been nailed down rather than a take down notice like what happened with SPW.

Edited March 30, 2012 by Bond...James Bond