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Which LDS Truth Claims are Falsifiable?


smac97

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But your claim was "Thus, if it could be demonstrated that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light, it would disprove the assertion that God resides on Kolob."

Leaving aside the fact that LDS theology doesn't claim that God resides on Kolob but near it, your claim was in effect that God does not have a way around Special Relativity.

How can you prove that God doesn't have a way around Special Relativity?

Ultimately, you can't really prove anything, can you?

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I think Whitmer's statement, if accurate, does amount to a falsification of the revelation in question.

First, how do you arrive at this conclusion? Hiram Page felt that the revelation was fulfilled. So how do we determine which is correct?

Second, how do you propose to substantiate Whitmer's statement?

Third, Whitmer is dead. He made the statement some 57 years after the events in question. He was not a participant to the events in question. He made his statement during a time when he was quite hostile to the LDS Church. Inasmuch as your methodology rests entirely on Whitmer's credibility as a witness, how do you overcome these concerns?

My "methodology" is to determine what the truth claim consists of (likely a major point of contention), whether it was made by the church (another major point of contention) and then analyze the existing evidence to determine whether it is false (another major point of contention).

I suspect that SethPayne's example of the BoA facsimiles is better than the one I gave.

I agree.

-SMac

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Ultimately, you can't really prove anything, can you?

So nothing can be falsified?

I don't think you have to go that far. "You can't prove that God doesn't have some ability that he reportedly has without knowing what God knows," or even just "you can't prove a negative," seems to go far enough to me.

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Okay. But I don't think we will ever have such a profile. Do you?

Probably not. But it is possible.

Also, according to this fellow (Steve Peck, a professor of biology at BYU), even a complete profile of all North American natives would not solve the problem:

Read the whole thing.

So I come back to the question of falsifiability. Is the existence of Nephites/Lamanites falsifiable?

I could let go of this one.

So are there any variables here? And does your methodology account for them?

IMO, a reasonable person without a horse in the race (an believing LDS Scholar for example), could not possibly look at the facsimiles, Joseph's translation, and the modern Egyptologist translation and conclude that Joseph's translation is, in any way, related to the Egyptian text.

For example, this FAIR Wiki article discusses Joseph's translations of the facsimiles. It notes that "Some of Joseph's interpretations are similar to those of trained Egyptologists, but most are not." How does your methodology account for the instances where Joseph's interpretation jibes with those of modern-day experts?

"Similar" is being VERY generous in my view. Humans have an incredible ability to find what we are looking for. If I want to see a cow shape in the clouds I am very likely to see one. However, a disinterested observer is NOT likely to see a cow.

I just don't think there is any reasonable way around this from an apologetic point of view.

The FAIR Wiki article also describes two theories (the first posited by Kevin Barney, the second by Richard D. Draper, S. Kent Brown, and Michael D. Rhodes). Does your methodology take these into account?

It does in that I must account for bias in research and conclusions. All of us have bias which colors our observation. Bias does not make these scholars incorrect out of necessity. However, when it is ONLY LDS scholars who see any type of correlation between Joseph's translation and the modern translation, I must conlclude that bias is playing a significant role. Of course, in order to truly test this we must eliminate bias on both sides. We should find an egyptologist (or 10) who know nothign of Mormonism and design and experiment in which they compare the two texts.

Anti-Mormon critics bring their own biases to the table and when we consider their conclusions we must eliminate their bias as much as possible.

But you have enough data in hand to feel comfortable in saying that Joseph's translations of the facsimiles have been falsified. Is that correct?

I do. To me, this is a pretty black/white issue. Joseph claimed that the facsimiles say X. The facsimiles do not say X.

Okay. So how does this work out to be a falsification of a "truth claim" of the LDS Church?

Well, they are part of the Canon. Thus, they constitute a truth claim.

However, this does not necessarily invalidate their spiritual meaning. In the pragmatist sense, the facsimiles could be as true as the sky is blue.

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Or how about the claim that God is from the planet Kolob? At least a few Mormons have realized that if God really lives on Kolob then he must be able to travel faster than the speed of light, because otherwise God wouldn’t be able to travel from there to here in reasonable amounts of time. Thus, if it could be demonstrated that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light, it would disprove the assertion that God resides on Kolob.

This is the kind of absurd "logic" we get from those who do not understand what the gospel is about at all. The gospel is not about scientific truth.

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This would, at present, be very difficult. I believe it would require a full DNA "profile" of all North American natives to demonstrate the non-existence of Israelite ancestry.

Even that would not disprove it if all the lines that carried that ancestry had died out already.

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Even that would not disprove it if all the lines that carried that ancestry had died out already.
But doesn't the BOM claim that descendants of the Lamanites would help build the New Jerusalem? Seems that this would preclude them dying out.* I am NO DNA expert * So, I could be completely wrong -- I freely admit this.
This is the kind of absurd "logic" we get from those who do not understand what the gospel is about at all. The gospel is not about scientific truth.
I agree. The Gospel is NOT about scientific truth. However, the Canon does make some specific claims about the nature of the world. -- Matter is eternal -- cannot be created etc...Thus, some of the claims are open to scientific examination.
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The notion of falsifying a paradigm of great generality itself, has been severely criticized. Read, for instance, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, or Myths, Models, and Paradigms: A Comparative Study of Science and Religion, or Godel, Esher, and Bach.

I am inclined to agree with this sentiment. Nevertheless, I am interested in discussing the potential falsifiability of specific truth claims of the LDS Church.

I think there is a world of difference between falsifying an entire paradigm (Mormonism) versus a discrete set of factual allegations that are specific in time, place, participants, etc. (Martha Beck's risible accusations in her book Leaving the Saints).

The former is, I think, not falsifiable, but the latter are.

-Smac

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How about the claim that a resurrected angel Moroni visited Joseph Smith in the attic/bedroom of the tiny Smith cabin in 1823? If it could be shown that the ceiling was too low for an angel of Moroniâ??s stature to float above the floor in that tiny room filled with sleeping Smiths without hitting his head, then that would disprove the claim that he really did so.

Not really. In the content of a vision it is possible Joseph's surroundings were adapted to conform. I don't see any reason why the brightness Joseph described couldn't wash out the ceiling, so to speak, in the content of the vision.

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"Statistically?" How do you propose to measure such a thing?

Is the will of God an important component of such blessings? According to LDS doctrines, obviously so.

So if you can't account for this variable, what value would your study really have?

So falsification by inference. Is that where we end up?

Really? Can you elaborate on this?

Let me state it this way. Faith and the will of God are potential issues regardless of whether the treatment in question is the latest pill or a priesthood blessing. Despite those potential issues, the medical community has rigorous statistical tests to determine the efficacy of drugs (Iâ??m not going to give you a statistics lesson on the details; just trust me or do your own research on clinical trials).

Priesthood blessings could be shown to be effective or not in the same scientific way every other treatment is shown to be effective or not. Arguments to the contrary amount to special pleading.

Special pleading permeates Mormonism. Thatâ??s why the type of things that are falsifiable in the natural world (e.g. whether "A" is an accurate translation of "B"), arenâ??t falsifiable in Mormonism. And that is why I donâ??t take this thread seriously.

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Ahhh... I love pragmatism! And, I completely agree with you.

However, we are working with two definitions of falsifiable. In the heart of a believer, you are correct, nothing is falsifiable inasmuch as the belief has a positive operative impact in the believer's life.

But what do we do when faith makes specific factual claims about history, geology, etc... We are dealing with two different paradigms. If I believe that the Rocky Mountains are made of marshmallows and this belief leads me to greater happiness, then this belief is indeed true. The paradox of course, is that the Rocky Mountains are in fact NOT made of marshmallow.

Not a good analogy. Mormons don't have beliefs like that, as this thread proves even those who are epistemologically naive can come up with arguments about facts which are ambiguous to start with. Also, there are scientific truths, and then there are other kinds of truth each with their own standards of what qualifies as "truth". History is one of those areas-- none of us were there to see any of it, so what is "true" is a lot more ambiguous than what is true in say, physics which is very precise.

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How about the claim that a resurrected angel Moroni visited Joseph Smith in the attic/bedroom of the tiny Smith cabin in 1823? If it could be shown that the ceiling was too low for an angel of Moroniâ??s stature to float above the floor in that tiny room filled with sleeping Smiths without hitting his head, then that would disprove the claim that he really did so.

Tell you what, you find an angel to participate in your experiment and then you might have a point.

Or how about the claim that the sick can be healed with priesthood blessings? The Pharmacology industry has a battery of sophisticated double-blind tests to determine the efficacy of treatments for various conditions. These same types of tests could be used to determine whether or not priesthood blessings are more effective than a placebo (e.g. olive oil that wasnâ??t consecrated).

Your statement presupposes a claim of 100% effectiveness on the part of Priesthood Blessings...a fact not in evidence. Absent that presupposition on your part, the proposed methodology makes no sense.

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.... but maybe glorified beings are made of tachyons.

Or even (horrors!) something we don't know about yet. Imagine high def TV in 2000 BC.

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Reconstruct the scene and see if it is plausible given the physical dimensions of the room.

What if the vision was in Joseph's mind?

We are throwing out what if's which could go on eternally.

There is always another possible explanation if you think this way. The point is that you are trying to prove a negative, and you can't do it. You just can't.

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Nothing is falsifiable to the believer - at least not fatally. I, for one, do not believe in the spontaneous appearance of a compass-like device that responds based on the faith and behaviors of those within a certain range of it. I think that's self-falsifying.

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Ultimately, you can't really prove anything, can you?

Precisely!

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Nothing is falsifiable to the believer - at least not fatally. I, for one, do not believe in the spontaneous appearance of a compass-like device that responds based on the faith and behaviors of those within a certain range of it. I think that's self-falsifying.

It's not a "spontaneous appearance" if it is PLACED there by someone.

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But doesn't the BOM claim that descendants of the Lamanites would help build the New Jerusalem? Seems that this would preclude them dying out.* I am NO DNA expert * So, I could be completely wrong -- I freely admit this.I agree. The Gospel is NOT about scientific truth. However, the Canon does make some specific claims about the nature of the world. -- Matter is eternal -- cannot be created etc...Thus, some of the claims are open to scientific examination.

Not really.

And Lamanites could build the New Jerusalem without there being any descendents of Laman among them. Laman's descendents mix with others. The descendents and the others descendents are termed "Lamanites" per the book of Jacob- they are not an ethnic people. Over time, the actual descendents of Laman die out. "Lamanites" exist by the millions, but none are the literal descendents of Laman

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The former is, I think, not falsifiable, but the latter are.

Nope. Because those statements and beliefs are ambiguous and there is always an alternative way to see them. All of history is ambiguous, and that leaves science. None of those claims are actually scientific.

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The spontaneous part doesn't matter a whole lot - call it unexpected - I think the BoM says Lehi was surprised.

Well, you brought it up as an example of "self-falsifying"; care to elaborate?

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Your statement presupposes a claim of 100% effectiveness on the part of Priesthood Blessings...a fact not in evidence. Absent that presupposition on your part, the proposed methodology makes no sense.

No, it is a test to see if the effectiveness of priesthood blessings is statistically different than the effectiveness of a placebo.

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No, it is a test to see if the effectiveness of priesthood blessings is statistically different than the effectiveness of a placebo.

Let's assume, for a moment, that: 1) there is a God; 2) He actually does answer Priesthood Blessings as He sees fit; and 3) He is aware of the performance of such an experiment. Given that God has, repeatedly, told His children to TRUST HIM, why would He perform like a trained monkey in this clear effort to "tempt God"?

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In order to show to a certainty that some, if not all, of the events described in the Book of Mormon can only be fiction, one needs to make some best case assumptions (that is, assumptions as favorable as possible to the claim that the stories in the books describe real events). Then one must show why it is not possible for these events to have happened as described, given those favorable assumptions (or any other non-magical assumptions for that matter).

Of course, no matter how fantastic and imaginative the stories, magical thinkers can always claim that supernatural forces or magic were involved. According to this mindset these events could have actually occurred because of supernatural interference by God. This tactic can be considered as the â??Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster defenseâ?. Citing the Mormon principle that God works according to natural law, as preached by the prophets J.F. Smith and Brigham Young, closes off this â??magical actionsâ? defense.

Among the many fantastic stories in the Book of Mormon, the saga of the journey from the Middle East to the New World by the Jaredites sometime between about 2500 and 2300 BC stands out as being readily falsifiable (and falsified).

As an ocean sailor, I have tried several times to convince myself that such a trip could be made. I have considered my own knowledge of ocean sailing, and made reference to global marine navigation charts with prevailing wind and surface current speed and direction data. I have considered academic research from mainstream science concerning the Mesopotamian shipbuilding industry and the types and uses of ships produced between about 3000 and 2000 BC.

Unfortunately, even based on the most favorable assumptions that can be made in all of these areas, it is abundantly clear that such a trip could not have been made. This conclusion does not rest on one â??deal breakerâ? factor or consideration. As I will show based on the hard sciences of oceanography, meteorology, physics, and chemistry, such a journey is far from possible today, and it was far from possible in ancient times.

This post considers the claim in the Book of Mormon (BoM) that in the 2500 to 2300 BC time frame, a group of some 22 people were able to build eight watertight â??bargesâ? with no means of propulsion. We are told that they then provisioned, launched and rode along in these drifting craft from somewhere in the Middle East to the New World in 344 days. These craft were built as completely water tight so that closable air holes had to be provided for ventilation. We read that â??--holes were made in the top and in the bottomâ?, which holes could be plugged to prevent water from entering the vessel. According to the BoM, these vessels were built so that they could be safely submerged by wave action for short periods. The Book of Ether tells us that fire was not used on board these barges.

Magical Glowing Stones: We are told that the barge interiors were lit by glowing stones miraculously made to radiate light by the hand of God. Since this aspect of the story is directly described as a miracle, it will not be considered further, except to state that if God works according to natural laws, the only means of making stones glow long term would be through the use of radioactive materials. Any solid state materials that glowed would have been dangerous indeed for human occupants exposed to the radioactive products and by products in a closed and poorly ventilated space for 50 weeks. (As a relatively safe radioactivity light source, tritium would have been the best among the possible choices. However, since tritium is a gas, we can rule it out as the light source.)

Jaredite Vessels: In considering possible routes for the crossing, it is important to keep in mind that the seagoing vessels of the Jaredites were â??bargesâ?. In fact, according to the Book of Ether, they were constructed as semi-submersibles. It should be noted that no wooden semi-submersible has ever been successfully demonstrated in the modern era. From a marine architecture standpoint, such a vessel would be very difficult, if not impossible, to build and maintain leak-free at sea for any length of time, let alone 11 months. As we will see later, in a comprehensive survey of shipbuilding technology in the 3000 â?? 200 BC time frame by mainstream science, there is no mention of such barges.

We are told that the Jaredite vessels were â??the length of a treeâ?, peaked in the ends, and sealed tightly top and bottom â??like unto a dishâ?. The occupants or crew stayed inside these closed vessels and, when necessary, opened one or more air holes for ventilation. The critical aspect of these barges is that they had no means of propulsion. They depended on ocean currents to carry them from the Middle East to the New World. The Book of Ether indicates that they could be â??steeredâ?.

â??O Lord, in them there is no light; whether shall we steer? And also we shall perish, for in them we cannot breathe, save it is the air which is in them; therefore we shall perish" (Ether 2:19).

No Power Means No Steering: It is a fact of physics that in order for any marine vessel to be steered, it must have some means of moving relative to the water around it. A barge (by definition) is a vessel without propulsion. A vessel without some kind of propulsion such as sails, oars, or an engine and screw, cannot be steered - period. It can only move as carried by water currents, with some possible effect of the wind on the hull freeboard and superstructure. Since there were no sails, no superstructure, and relatively little freeboard (vertical hull area above the waterline), the effects of the wind would have been relatively insignificant for this vessel design. When it comes to marine navigation, these barges would have been little more than large pieces of driftwood. (Joseph Smithâ??s description of â??bargesâ? as being â??steeredâ? is a factual error. Barges cannot be steered, period.)

Long Story Short: The Jaredite Journey as Described in the Book of Ether is, and was, a Physical Impossibility: Because these barges had no means of propulsion they could only drift along in the ocean currents. They had little surface area upon which the wind could act in the direction of travel (remember the ends were peaked or brought to a point). Therefore, one need only consult ocean current data to determine potential routes. Consideration of the ocean surface current directions and speeds along any possible route from the Middle East to the Western Hemisphere shows that a voyage such as described in the Book of Ether could not have been made. This post could end here because the rest is just supporting detail to this statement. However, the absurdity of the story being claimed as factual bears further comment. And readers who have made it this far deserve a chance to look at the supporting evidence for themselves.

Directly Relevant Data on Drifting Objects: â??In 1929 a crew of German scientists set out to track the journey of one particular bottle. It was set to sea in the South Indian Ocean with a note inside asking the finder to record the location where it washed up and to throw it back into the sea. By 1935 it had rounded the world and traveled approximately sixteen thousand miles, the longest distance officially recorded.â?

This bottle was released near, or directly into, the relatively fast moving Antarctic Circumpolar current to give it the best chance of circling the globe, which it eventually did. Dynamic ocean current simulation models indicate that the most likely outcome for objects drifting in the Indian Ocean Agulhas current is that they would end up in the Antarctic Circumpolar current (as was the case with the German bottle), not in the Benguella current. Also note that the Benguella current and the Northern Equatorial current that would have taken a drifting object from west coast of the southern tip of Africa to the Caribbean are much slower (with a maximum speeds of 9 km/day) than the Antarctic Circumpolar current.

Problems with Ocean Currents Direction and Speed: Based on ocean surface current characteristics alone, potential drift routes can be worked out using marine navigational charts. One can get an idea of what the navigational charts look like with regard to ocean surface currents by the graphic below or at:

http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundament...eancurrents.gif

oceancurrents.gif

Easterly Transit Highly Unlikely: As is evident from the graphic showing major ocean currents, launching from anywhere on the southern Arabian Peninsula would have made it very unlikely that the Jaredites could have headed in an easterly direction. They would have had to catch the southern portion of the Equatorial countercurrent flowing east. As shown from the current data, this Equatorial lies well off shore and they would have had to cross the local south flowing current in order to reach it. Even if they had done so, the chances of them eventually reaching, and then â??driftingâ? through, complex of relatively narrow passages and channels between Australia and Southeast Asia into the Pacific Ocean are essentially zero. (Just look at the map and currents). And if they had, by some miracle, made it to the Pacific Basin, they would have been carried north by relatively strong currents with first landfall in the Western Hemisphere somewhere in Alaska or the Pacific Northwest. Such a journey would have been substantially longer than the westerly transit.

Considerations Regarding a Westerly Transit: As is postulated for the voyage of Nephi, the most â??logicalâ? point for a Jaredite departure would have been from the south end of the Arabian Peninsula. The Mediterranean is a generally devoid of the surface currents necessary for a direct Middle East to Western Hemisphere by crossing of the Med and then the Atlantic. Even if they had launched into the Med and made it into the Atlantic (which is highly unlikely without power), or launched into the Atlantic directly, as they approached the eastern seaboard of North America, the strong north flowing Gulf Stream current (2-4 knots) would have picked them up and kept them at least 5-10 miles offshore until they were well into the North Atlantic, where the North Atlantic Drift current would have most likely brought them back to Europe.

Problems with Transit from Current to Current without Power: Launching from somewhere in the eastern part of present day Oman would have put them in the Agulhas current, which would have carried them down to the tip of Africa. Had they been able to transit to the Benguella current (highly unlikely without power), they would have had to next transit to the Northern branch of the Equatorial current (again unlikely without power) which would have eventually sent them into the Caribbean South of Haiti. This is a journey on the order of some 13,000 to 14,000 miles.

Wind Problems in the Doldrums: Note that this route passes through a meteorological zone known as the â??doldrumsâ? between the northern and southern trade wind zones. In the doldrums winds are normally calm. It would have taken a major modification of world climatic patterns for the winds to â??blow without ceasingâ? in region where the winds seldom blow at all.

Not Enough Time to Make the Trip (Western Routing): If the journey took 344 days as described in the Book of Ether, this means that that the Jaredites would have had to travel at an average speed of a little over 2 miles per hour, or approximately 50 miles per day. Except for the Gulf Stream, all other currents they could have possibly encountered in the Atlantic on this routing move at a rate of less than 9 km, or about 5.4 miles, per day. At these average speeds, the journey would have required at least six years, wind or no wind.

Dangerous Waters in Route: Even in moderate winds along the East Coast of Africa, the Aguhla current gives rise to sea conditions so severe, including breaking waves, that many large modern commercial vessels have been lost along this route, even in otherwise clear weather. In fact, mile per mile, this stretch of water accounts for more lost ships than any other commercial sea lane in modern times, and is slowly being abandoned because of this problem. The chances of wooden vessels surviving this part of the passage in moderate to strong winds would be slim indeed (yet we read the winds "did never cease to blow towards the promised land").

Problems of a â??Driftwood Flotillaâ?: The likelihood that a flotilla of eight drifting vessels could stay together in a group at sea for 344 days is vanishingly small. Try this thought experiment. Imagine you went to southern Oman and launched eight large wooden poles into the ocean. Letâ??s assume that these were 30 foot poles on which you had carved your name and an identifying serial number. What are the chances you would find that all of your poles had washed ashore, at about the same place, and at about the same time, anywhere in the western hemisphere within one year (or ever)?

From experience in trying to maintain a group of sail powered vessels in visual contact with one another at sea, especially at night, even with the help of lights and radios, I can assure you that the chances of a group of eight drifting vessels staying together at sea for 344 days would be zero, especially in the face of continuous winds. Some have suggested that they â??rafted upâ?. Rafting up, or tying the vessels together with rope or cord is not an option. There is a reason why barges are not towed on the high seas; the forces encountered in storms will break the securing cables or break the vessels themselves.

Provision Estimates for the Jaredites: Calculations for the provisions that such a trip would require show that approximately 40,000 kg (40 metric tons or approximately 100,000 pounds) of food and water would be needed for the 22 members of the Jaredite band for a 344 day journey. These calculations are made based on modern sail boat passage making weekly provision recommendations. As for the animals; if they took â??flocks of every kind,â? we could easily multiply this number by several fold. However, since we have little information as to the exact types and numbers of animal taken aboard, we will ignore this factor. Considering animals only exacerbates the food and water problem which, as shown below, is already insurmountable.

Water Contamination and Food Spoilage in Route; Especially in the Tropics: With eight vessels, the main problem with provisions is not the weight or volume of the food and water required. Although one can be assured that so laden, these vessels would not have been â??light upon the waterâ? as described in the Book of Ether. The main problem with provisioning is keeping the drinking water from going bad and the food from spoiling without refrigeration during a one year voyage. This is an especially important problem considering that most of would have been in the tropics. Much of the food could have been in the form of dried figs and dates. These are high in calories and keep fairly well. Grains, meat and most other fruits or other foodstuffs would have been a real problem (just consider the problems of the British Royal Navy in this regard several millennia later).

There is also the problem of what containers would be used to store the water. We know that in the ancient world, wine was shipped in amphora. Wood barrel making (cooper technology) had not yet been developed. The problem is that these clay vessels are heavy and could be easily broken, especially if the ship were to pitch and roll in rough seas. We are told the Jeredites "built vessels" to contain the water. This would apparently rule out animal skin or bladder containers. Whatever they were made of, they would have needed to be capable of holding more than 30 metric tons of water, and keeping it potable in the tropics for many months. It is highly unlikely that this could have been done in 2500 BC.

No Fires, No Cooked Food: Another problem is that there were to be no fires aboard the Jaredite barges, thus making it impossible to boil water or cook food. This would mean that the occupants had to live on dried or otherwise preserved foods with no means of making them safer by cooking before eating. In the heat and humidity of the tropics, in a closed vessel without sunlight and little ventilation, most of the food, dried or not, would have spoiled within a matter of weeks.

Mesopotamian Ship Building 2000-3000 BC: According to Makela (2002) shipbuilding in Mesopotamia in this era was surprisingly advanced. The region used the inland seas and waterways, and even some canals, for transport of goods (food, leather, textiles and timber) by ship. The shipbuilding industry required several types of imported woods, including cedar. Cedar would have been especially valuable for keels because of its long single piece length and it resistance to rot and decay.

More interestingly, in terms of making the Jaredite barges â??tight like unto a dishâ? was the use of two types of bitumen. The first was a â??softâ? bitumen and the second a harder, more asphalt-like material perhaps on the order of a roofing tar. In Mesopotamian ship building, these bitumen were the only means of sealing wooden ships to make them watertight. Bitumen, along with certain clays, were used both on the exterior and the interior surfaces of the hull. There is little doubt that bitumen would have been necessary for the Jaredite barges because it was the only watertight sealing material available at that time (and indeed for more than 2000 years hence). Anyone living in a bitumen-lined hull with only air holes for ventilation in temperatures above about 85 degrees F (temperatures in Oman can reach 130 degrees F, no problem), would be fortunate indeed to live for a year. The fumes given off by bitumen are toxic, and can be dangerous in closed, poorly ventilated spaces, especially in warm weather.

No Sealed Barges: In reviewing Makelaâ??s well researched and comprehensive work on ancient Mesopotamian shipbuilding, which includes descriptions of the known ship types and their uses, there is no reference whatsoever to closed hull craft or "barges" as described by Joseph Smith. So the question arises as to where the Jaredites got their â??experienceâ? in building such barges, as mentioned in the Book of Ether.

No Fire, No Hull Re-Sealing in Route: Makela (2002) explains that it was necessary to periodically replace the bitumen used for sealing the cracks between the wooden planks of the hull. This was done by scraping off the old bitumen, adding new bitumen, and heating the mixture in a pot with a fire to soften it so it could be re-applied. The problem is that the Book of Ether specifically states that there was to be â??no fireâ? on the barges. Therefore there could be no hull seal repair in route. Using the best technology available in that time frame, the inability to re-seal the hull underway would have lead to massive seawater ingress (leakage) which would have eventually lead to loss of the barges at sea.

No Stops Along the Way: The Book of Ether tells us that the winds â??did never cease to blow towards the promised landâ?, suggesting that the trip was made without stopping for re-supply. In any case, it is highly unlikely that a wooden craft that was the length of a tree (say 50 feet) having several tons of cargo aboard and no power, could be safely beached and re-launched. In Florida we have a name for a 50 foot vessel that washes ashore with no power. It is called a â??shipwreckâ?. And in a manner of speaking, that is exactly what this story is in terms of any claims that it is non-fiction.

Sanitary Conditions and Disposal of Human and Animal Waste: Then there are the problems of disposal of human and animal waste, especially in rough sea conditions. We are told that the winds blew continually, so can assume that the sea state would have been rough. One can only imagine the problems with sanitation that would have occurred had one or more of the barges actually rolled over in rough weather. The consequences of animal urine and feces re-distribution that would have occurred in a roll-over event would have been catastrophic.

Hugh Nibleyâ??s Pacific Crossing Scenario: Unfortunately, a Pacific crossing doesnâ??t fit the story either. A quick check of the relevant ocean current direction and speed shows that a Pacific crossing, from the east coast of what is now China, would have required approximately 90 -120 days, and certainly no more than 150 days, even without constant winds. If the Pacific was crossed from East Asia, as Nibley suggests, why did the Lord keep the Jaredites on the water for 344 days?

Falsifiability and Occamâ??s Razor: A large number of the claims associated with the story of the Jaredite crossing have been shown to be factually impossible. That is, they have been falsified. However, to provide as much credulity to the Book of Ether as possible, we can assume that all of these problems simply become contingencies or assumptions needed to generate the first of two â??equally probableâ? hypotheses, namely:

1. the events happened as described in the Book of Ether, or

2. Joseph Smith (or someone else) imagined them or simply made them up.

The principle of Occamâ??s razor, when applied to the two hypotheses, clearly shows that hypothesis that Joseph Smith (or someone else) made up the story (and that it is an entire fiction) is the hypothesis that must be accepted.

Conclusion: The Book of Ether is both Falsifiable and Falsified: This analysis shows that because of many factors, and beyond any reasonable doubt, based on hard sciences including oceanography, geography, meteorology, physics and chemistry, the ocean crossing of the Jaredites described in the Book of Ether must be judged as fiction (and bad fiction at that).

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Of course, no matter how fantastic and imaginative the stories, magical thinkers can always claim that supernatural forces or magic were involved. According to this mindset these events could have actually occurred because of supernatural interference by God. This tactic can be considered as the â??Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster defenseâ?. Citing the Mormon principle that God works according to natural law, as preached by the prophets J.F. Smith and Brigham Young, closes off this â??magical actionsâ? defense.

DrW, you seem to consistently fail to understand that the "Mormon principle" that God works according to natural law does not mean that God can't do anything not understood by current science.

I invoked Clarke's laws on another thread - specifically the idea that any sufficiently advanced technology will appear to be magic - and you failed to see the relevence. Allow me to try to explain again.

God has a far deeper understanding of natural law then we do. He knows ways around them that we do not. He is what Clarke described as "sufficiently advanced" for what He can do to appear to be magic to us, even though it does not in fact break natural laws. Faster-than-light travel, mana from the sky, the liahona, these things are not magic in the sense that they break natural laws - they obey natural laws but operate on principles not yet fully understood by our current science.

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